The entire Florida house, all 120 seats, is up for election in just 2 weeks. Democrats have not held the state house since the 1990s and since the 2000s have had to fight under heavily gerrymandered maps. While the State Senate and Congressional maps were forced to redraw their boundaries in 2015 – resulting in more responsive and fair maps – the state house map remains a GOP gerrymander. When Trump won the state of Florida by 1%, he won 66 districts to Clinton’s 44. Only a handful of seats were especially close, most being solidly blue or solidly red. Read more about my breakdown of the map in the 2016 elections in this article.
After that election cycle and following special elections, the current Representation and Presidential support can be seen below. Democrats hold two seats that backed Trump whole Republicans hold 14 seats that backed Clinton. Not all Clinton-held seats are Dem favored – some are due to suburban shifts to Clinton and others are heavily Cuban districts in Miami-Dade that split their tickets. Note, a few seats are vacant at the moment, but all are safe for their party and I am using the party of the member that died/resigned.
I go into far more detail in my 2016 House elections article. But this map below offers a quick idea of how the electorate shifted in Florida from 2012 to 2016. Trump under-performed Romney in educated, suburban districts as whites with college degrees grew wary of his rhetoric and lack of experience. Meanwhile, Cuban voters in Dade, a normally GOP group, gave Trump his worst level of support ever; causing Clinton to be the first Democrat to take all of Miami-Dade’s state house seats.
Miami-Dade districts are going to be a major part of this article so lets get this covered now. Democrats should NOT just look to Presidential margins in Hispanic/Cuban Miami-Dade districts. Think of Miami-Dade as parts of Appalachia and the American South; where local Democrats do well; winning state house seats, but lose President by solid margins. This type of ticket splitting happens in reverse in Miami-Dade. Democrats, are, however, making gains down-ballot in the county; and a slew of special elections in the last two years showed growing Democratic strength. Democrats won a special election for a county commission seat, held HD114 in a special, and gained Senate District 40 in late 2017. However, Republicans are still well-positioned in several of their Cuban-heavy house districts and we shouldn’t expect local democrats to match Clinton margins. Looking at how Marco Rubio did in the 2016 Senate race, how Rick Scott did in 2014, and how the 2012 Presidential race went all offer more top-of-ballot context as well.
The map below shows the House districts of Dade along with Cuban voting blocks.
Cubans have been moving more to the middle; especially as the older Cuban generation, which is heavily conservative, gives way to a younger pool of votes. However, Trump’s historically weak showing with Cubans means Clinton’s share in Miami-Dade was abnormally large and hence is not a strong indicator for how down-ballot races will go. The movement of Cuban voters is truly a sea-change in Florida politics. Back in 2006, when Bill Nelson secured over 60% statewide, he still lost the three most Cuban-heavy house districts in the state.
Incumbency advantage exists to some degree in Florida but it varies. It aids in raising money and some incumbents are especially strong and cultivate images that aid their re-election. At the same time, Florida has not been afraid to toss out its incumbents, especially in waves. The current status of the districts – which are open – is seen below.
Ok, with that quick review of Florida’s districts all done – lets start looking at the districts to keep an eye on.
FYI if you just want to see the map of the rankings, go to the end of the article.
Tossup Districts (All Held by GOP)
House District 15
This race has emerged as one of the most expensive of the cycle. District 15 is located in southwest Duval County and initially no one expected it to be so contentious. The open seat backed Trump 52-44, which was down from Romney’s 56-43; but still well in the GOP range. Republican Wyman Duggan emerged from a contentious GOP primary and has raised $270,000 while Democrat Tracye Ann Polson has taken in $250,000. Both candidates have political committees with tens of thousands more and the parties are invested as well. While on paper this seat is more Lean GOP, the candidate quality and strong campaign of Polson leads both parties to concede its a tossup. Polls show the race close and it has gotten nasty. The district is likely to back DeSantis and Nelson (if they win it then its hard to see them losing statewide or it even being close) so Polson is looking to run ahead of her party.
House District 30
Democrats held this seat from 2012-2014 but Incumbent Bob Cortes has sat in it for four years now. Cortes has shown himself to be a strong Incumbent, a big aid considering this district back Clinton 51-43 after backing Crist 47-46 and Obama 50-49. This seat moved a bit to the left in 2016 but overall is still a swing seat; incumbency aside. Based out of southern Seminole and north Orange, it is largely a suburban seat but also 17% Hispanic and 13% black. Maitland councilwoman Joy Goff-Marcil is the Democratic nominee and has raised $47,000. However, this badly trails Cortes’ $270,000. The key for this race will be how Cortes’ incumbency and money helps in a district that, if it were open, would be a very strong pickup opportunity for Democrats.
House District 47
The most interesting house race of the cycle (for me). House District 47 is located in the heart of Orange County. It is a largely white district surrounded by Hispanic districts to its south and east and African-American districts to its west. Democrats held it from 2012-2014. Efforts to topple Incumbent Mike Miller in 2016 failed but now its open as Miller runs for Congress. The district backed Clinton 53-41, Murphy 49-47, Crist 48-45 and Obama 50-49. Democrats united around longtime Democratic staffer, operative, and activists Anna Eskamani; who if he elected would be the first Iranian American in the Florida house. Eskamani has raised an insane $407,000 for her run and has another $70,000 in a political committee. Meanwhile, businessman Stockton Reeves is the Republican nominee and has raised $142,000 while self-funding $100,000. On paper this race looks lost for Republicans – the money and district lean make this a prime Democratic target in a blue year. Republicans are responding by trying to claim Eskamani is not a good fit for what is definitely a suburban district. How is she not a good fit you ask? She curses! (seriously, mailer in link). Now, this is probably the best the GOP can do since Eskamani is strong candidate running in a seat that is willing to back democrats. The idea from the GOP is clearly to scare moderate voters – who apparently are like the folks from the town in Footloose in the GOP’s eyes. If Eskamani loses, it might really come down as indictment on suburbia for caring about issues like language or style – because on paper this is a very likely democratic pickup.
House District 63
Democrats took aim at this district, which includes New Tampa, the University of South Florida, and is based in northern Hillsborough, in 2016 but came up short. The district has backed Democrats across the major elections in recent years. It went 53-43 for Clinton, 49-47 for Murphy, 49-45 for Crist, and 53-46 for Obama. Incumbent Republican Shawn Harrison has raised $200,000, the same as Democratic challenger Fentrice Driskell. Harrison has proved to be a strong incumbent. He lost in an upset in 2012 but won his seat back in 2014 and held it in 2016. A late September poll put Harrison in the lead by 6 but short of 50%.
House District 69
Based in southwestern Pinellas, this 51-47 Obama district swung modestly to Trump, who won it 49-46 thanks to white, working class voters as well as strong GOP shares along the coastal towns. The district is a pure swing seat and with popular incumbent Kathleen Peters leaving to run for county commission, the seat became a major pickup opportunity for democrats (who tried and failed to oust Peters in 2016). Democrats have Jennifer Webb, who has raised $240,000. Republican nominee Ray Blacklidge has raised $260,000. The race has gotten nasty, with the RPOF funding attack ads against Webb. A September poll gave Webb a commanding 14 point lead, but still below 50%. I almost moved this to Lean Democratic, but the high undecideds and lack of other polls made tossup a safe call.
House District 89
House district 89 is based out southern Palm Beach county, then stretches far up the Palm Beach coast. The formal reason is that on the western end of that coastal strip is a snake-like African-American district that grabs every black voter it can. The districts northern edges are very Republican and overall create a district that is swingish but also leans GOP. The district backed Romney 52-46 but then swung to a Clinton 49-48 win. The district narrowly backed Crist 49-48 in 2014, but backed Rubio 52-45. This is seat is open and is the top list of democratic efforts. Democrats recruited Ocean Ridge Mayor Jim Bonfiglio, who beat back a more liberal challenger in the primary, and who has self funded $200,000 and raised another $60,000. Republicans nominated businessman Mike Caruso, who raised $200,000 and self-funded $200,000 of his own. This has become a nasty and big money race. Caruso is by far the more conservative Republican to come out of the primary, something that has aided his Democratic opponent in earning endorsements. Bonfiglio has released an internal poll that shows him up 10 points but below 50%.
House District 93
The lone GOP house seat in Broward County, district 93 hugs the northern Broward coast as two African-American districts covers the inland communities to its west. The small cities of coastal North Broward – Sea Ranch Lakes, Lauderdale-by-the-Sea, Hillsboro Beach and Lighthouse Point – are the most Republican in the county and all lie in the district. The seat also includes scattered African-American and democratic communities from Deerfield, Pompano and Ft Lauderdale. The district backed Trump 49-48, a shift from Romney’s 52-47 win. Charlie Crist also won the district 50-47 in 2014. Democrat’s efforts to win the district in the past against Incumbent George Moraitis failed but now the seat is open. Republicans got a strong recruit in Broward commissioner Chip Lamarca; who as the lone Republican commission represented a district slightly to the left of the house seat. Democrats nominated Emma Collum, a small business attorney who founded the Florida Women’s March. Hard-money wise, Lamarca has a huge lead in money – $480,000 to $160,000 – however, Collum also has large soft-money support of over $200,000. This represents Democrat’s best chance to finally take this district and is expected to be close.
House District 103
This 80% Hispanic and 10% black district starts in Miramar (in Broward County) and dips straight into historic Hialeah (in Miami-Dade). This district has trended further to left but remained GOP down-ballot despite recent democratic efforts. Trump’s historic unpopularity with Cuban voters resulted him losing the district 58-39 the same day Marco Rubio won the district 51-47. Obama beat Romney in the seat 55-45 in 2012 and Crist beat Scott 50-47 in the 2014 election. One notable factor about the district is that its Miramar portion, which has a large African-American population, is heavily Democratic regardless of race or candidate. The Dade portion, which is Hispanic and heavily Cuban, is the GOP portion.
Democrats targeted incumbent Manny Diaz (who is now running for state senate) in 2016 but came 5 points short. Now the seat is open and Democrat Cindy Polo has raised $50,000. Republican Frank Mingo, meanwhile, has raised $150,000. Both parties are aiming for this seat and the question will come down to Democrat strength at the top of the ballot (Nelson and Gillum should take this) transferring further down.
House District 115
Further down in Dade lies another open Hispanic district. This seat backed Clinton by a 53-43 margin while backing Rubio 51-47 that same day. The seat narrowly backed Romney by 1 point in 2012 and backed Crist by 3 in 2014. Democrats have nominated Jeffrey Solomon, who lost the district 54-46 to then-incumbent Michael Bileca in 2016. This go around he has raised $90,000 for his bid. Republicans had a bruising primary for this seat, with institutional-favorite Vance Aloupis coming out on top. Aloupis has raised $400,000 for his bid. While this seat was originally scratched in as Lean GOP by myself, word is Democrats are encouraged by polling in the district.
Democrat-Held Lean DEM Seats
For the most part, democrats only have a few seats they need to be worried about losing.
House District 72
Democrats had one of their greatest state house special elections earlier this year when Democrat Margaret Good won a Trump+5 district by an impressive seven points over James Buchanan. Good represents a district that overall leans GOP but is close, backing Trump 50-45, Romney 51-48, but backed Crist 48-47. The district is based out of Suburban north Sarasota and issues like red tide and coastal pollution have been a major issue in the race. Good’s win made her a top target by the GOP this November. However, Good sits on $440,000 while former State Rep Ray Pilon, who had left the seat in 2016, has only managed $130,000. Pilon has attacked Good as being a partisan Democrat while Good has made red tide a major issue in attacking weak GOP pollution regulations. Good’s strong special election win, money advantage, GOP defensiveness in other seats, and blue lean of the cycle means this district stays in the Lean DEM range instead of tossup.
House District 84
Before Good’s win early this year, HD84 was the only seat with a Democrat representing a district Trump won. St Lucie County, a longtime Democratic white-working-class area, swung to Trump in 2016 and took 84 with it. The district backed Trump 49-48 after backing Obama 53-46 and Crist 52-43. On paper this has the potential to be competitive, but their is an argument the district still leans Democrat – as Trump is the best performing Republican in some time. The same day Trump won it, Murphy carried the district 50-47 in his US Senate bid. The race has featured amazingly little money considering its an open district. Republican Mark Gotz has raised $20,000 and self-funded another 20K. Democrat Delores Hogan Johnson has raised $41,000 and self-funded 6K. This race is not appearing to be a major money fight and Trump win aside, still had strong democratic roots. The lack of apparent GOP interest leads me to rank this Lean Democratic.
House District 118
Democrats picked up this majority-Hispanic district in 2016. Based around Kendall, The Crossings, and Richmond West; this seat, like so many in Miami-Dade, has moved to Democrats at the top of the ballot but still maintains a down-ballot opportunity for Republicans. Clinton won the district 54-42 while Rubio won the seat 54-44. Obama had won the seat 51-48 in 2012 but Scott beat Crist in the district 49-48 in 2014. Democrat Robert Asencio scored a narrow 1% victory in 2016 after scandal-plagued former Congressman David Rivera. Republicans, believing Rivera cost them the seat in 2016, are making a push for the district and their nominee, Anthony Rodriguez, has raised $230,000. Asencio has raised $140,000 and received over $50,000 in in-kind help from the state party. Democratic wins in the special elections in Dade for this cycle tell me the advantage exists for team blue. Asencio should hold on but he’s not getting a walk either.
Republican-Held Lean GOP Seats
There are multiple districts were Republicans have an advantage, but its a modest advantage.
House District 21
This is a weird, and I’d argue gerrymandered, district. The seat includes western Alachua County, taking in the suburbs of Gainesville and University of Florida; and then combined them with rural Gilchirst and Levy County. The result is a western end of the district that is heavily conservative with an eastern Democratic base. The district leans Republican but it swung away from Trump (thanks to his under-perfomance with educated whites) and and wound up backing Clinton 48-47 after backing Romney 51-47 in 2012. The district was also neck and neck in the 2014 Governor election, backing Scott 49-48. First term incumbent Chuck Clemons is taking his risk seriously and has raised $250,000. Democrat Jason Lee Haeseler has raised $60,000 so far. For Democrats the issue is making sure UF turns out while at the same time doing well in suburbia of Gainesville.
House District 36
Republicans only gained one district from Democrats in 2016, HD36; which covers all of the Pasco County coast.. Democrat Amanda Murphy endured an upset against Amber Mariano, a then-21 year old daughter of a Pasco County commission. Mariano benefited from her father’s political network, the districts massive swing toward Donald Trump, and Murphy not taking the race seriously enough. Murphy actually lost the district by 1% while still holding $40,000 in the bank. Despite this, Murphy still had the largest overperformance from Clinton. Murphy has also won a very close, contentious special election for the district in 2013 and held it in the 2014 wave.
The swing toward Trump was the largest in the state – going from Obama winning it 52-46 to Trump taking it 57-37. Charlie Crist beat Rick Scott 49-39 in 2014; with the district holding the largest third-party vote that year. The district’s swing was a perfect manifestation of white-working-class voters moving toward Trump. Romney actually did worth than Trump in the district, but still won it by a 52-39 margin.
This go around, Mariano has raised $230,000 for her re-election. Democrat Linda Jack has raised $70,000 and self-funded $10,000. The district’s swing toward Trump was so large that its not clear it is sustainable. The district also shows a clear ticket-splitting nature. How the district votes for Nelson and Gillum will tell a good deal about the future of this district and its white-working-class population. Meanwhile, Linda Jack cannot be counted out. Its a longshot, but a real shot.
House District 44
District 44, which is a majority-white district based out of southwestern Orange County. The district covers suburban communities that surround Disneyworld and the the assorted parks and resorts. The district, one of the most educated in the state, swung heavily away from Trump; backing Clinton 51-44 after voting for Romney by a 53-46 margin. The district backed Scott by a 54-42 and Rubio 52-45, so much of the originaly swing was Trump-specific. The seat had a special election in late 2017 that featured a good deal of chaos when the Democratic candidate dropped out and was replaced late in the process. Despite that, and despite money being largely on the GOP side, the Republican, now-Incumbent Robert Olszewski only won 55-45. That showing was considered smaller than expected. This time around, former Democratic State Senator Geraldine Thompson, who is African-American, is running for the Democrats. Thompson touts her experience and history working with Republicans (she was overall a left-of-center Democrat) in her campaign. She has raised $50,000 compared to the Republican’s $191,000. While the closer-than-expected special election was notable, this race will overall see much larger turnout. Republicans should be favored, but this is the exact type of district Democrats have a chance in if lingering anti-Trump sentiment taints other GOP candidates. A big factor will be how this district votes for Scott and DeSantis.
House District 59
Covering Riverview and Brandon, this Hillsborough-based seat is a very swingish and divided district. Trump and Obama win it by less than 1% and Scott took it by 2% in 2014. The seat is open; with Republican Joe Wicker raising $160,000 and Democrat Adam Hattersley raising $46,000. The GOP money advantage and concerns about weaker Hispanic turnout in the district force this district to stay in the Lean R column instead of tossup. This is definitely in the second tier of potential pickups though.
House District 105
This open, majority-Hispanic district, which covers a huge swath of land from Collier County to Miami-Dade, is, on paper, a ripe pickup opportunity for Democrats. As I have said, Presidential vote is misleading in Dade. Clinton won the district by 16 points the same day Rubio won the district by 7%. Scott won the district 50-45 and Obama won it 53-46. These GOP wins are notable but also more modest than another Dade districts. There are several Hispanic districts in the county that Clinton win but Scott/Rubio took by double digits. In addition, the special election victories in Miami-Dade means this district, which has a large Cuban population but is not majority Cuban, has potential to flip. The reason this is not a tossup, however, is candidates. Republican nominee Ana Maria Rodriguez has raised $285,000 while Democrat Javier Estevez has only raised $10,000. A win here would be entirely due to a wave among Hispanics. This district sat on the cusp of Lean or Likely R. It remains Lean R due to its profile but this district stands out as a missed opportunity for Democrats.
House District 119
House district 119 is an open, majority-Hispanic seat located in middle Miami-Dade around the Kendall West community. The district’s Cuban population is more concentrated on its Northern end. The shift of Cubans toward Clinton allowed he to take the district 55-42 while Rubio won the district 55-43. In 2012 the district backed Obama by 1 point and backed Scott 51-47. It leans Republican but like 105, it being open gave democrats a strong chance on paper to make a play for the district. However, much like 105, candidate quality is an issue. Juan Fernandez-Barquin won a fierce GOP primary and overall has only actually raised $140,000 – with only $35,000 of that being since the primary. Meanwhile, Democrat Heath Rassner has only raised $15,000. The money situation isn’t as bad but it also feels like neither party is especially focused on the district. The RPOF polled the race (in-kind contribution) and since then no massive resources have been sent in. This actually makes me think their poll was good for them (GOP down-ballot strength makes that more likely than it being a lost cause). I believe, like 105, this was more winnable on paper than its shaping out. That said I leave it as Lean R, as a wave could sweep it along for Democrats.
House District 120
At the southern end of Florida lies district 120. This seat covers all of the Florida keys (Monroe County) and southern Dade. The district is 40% Hispanic and is generally a swingish district that Democrats held till 2012. Obama won the district 52-46 the same day now-incumbent Republican Holly Raschein won the open seat. She has held on each cycle as Crist won the district 52-45 in 2014 and Clinton won the district 49-47 in 2016. Raschein has demonstrated a strong incumbency advantage and frequently touts her bipartisan and moderate credentials in her elections. If she wins, this will be her last election, as she is termed out in 2020. Democrat Steve Friedman is waiting though and has been running a solid campaign while raising $120,000. Raschein, however, has raised $330,000. If this seat was open this would absolutely be in the tossup column, and while not every Incumbent automatically has an advantage, Raschein clearly understands her district and therefor starts off with a modest advantage.
Democrat-Held Likely Dem Seats
There are just a few Democratic-held house seats that are fairly solid for team blue but cannot be completely ruled as safe.
House District 26
This Dem-held seat located in Volusia County is one of several longtime democratic districts that saw a major swing toward Donald Trump. This white working class district went from Obama+16 to Clinton +1 in just four years time. Clinton beat Trump 48-47 while Rubio actually won the seat over Murphy by 0.5%. In 2014, a red-wave year, Democrat Charlie Crist won the seat by 9 points over Rick Scott and in 2012 Obama took 57% to Romney’s 41%. Incumbent Patrick Henry won the then-open seat in in 2016 by a modest 5%. Now, he faces a serious challenge from Elizabeth Fetterhoff, who has raised $80,000. Henry, meanwhile, has raised $70,000. The seat has not generated as much attention as other districts but definitely is competitive on paper. Henry no doubt benefits from the blue nature of the year and that many of these regions that swung to Trump have swung back a bit in special elections over the last two years. The district is also 20% African-American, a constituency that Henry is no doubt hoping will turn out strong to vote for Andrew Gillum in the Gubernatorial Election. Henry would likely be in much more trouble in a red midterm. For the time being, “Likely Dem” makes the most sense.
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House District 114
District 114, located in midsouth Miami-Dade, has had a contentious electoral history. The seat was the subject of close races as Democrats tried and failed to win the seat in 2012 and 2014 – with Democrats finally taking the district in 2016. Democrat Daisey Baez won a close race in 2016 the same night Clinton won the seat by 14 points. The seat is over 65% Hispanic, and overall around 40% Cuban. The ticket-splitting nature of Cuban voters is seen in the fact that Rubio won the seat by 5 points and Obama and Crist only won it by 1. When Baez was forced to resign due to perjury, a special election was triggered in early 2018. Republicans made a strong push to take back the seat and were aided by specials being absentee, and hence older-Cuban, heavy. However, democrat recruit Javier Fernandez wound up pulling a solid 4 point win. This go-around the GOP is making a push for the district, hoping the turnout drop among younger Hispanics (who are more democratic) will allow a rare 2018 pickup. Republican nominee Javier Enriquez has raised $85,000 to Fernandez’s $75,000. While the race could be close, the special election results, Democratic defenses, and the fact so many Miami-Dade specials went for Democrats in the last two years, lead me to believe Fernandez should secure a victory by a modest, but not blowout, margin. To read more about HD114, read my special election coverage here.
Republican-Held Likely GOP Seats
There are a large number of GOP-held seats that, while likely to stay with the party, cannot be completely ruled out. Some of these may wind up being easy holds, others could get closer. Money is a big factor for many of these seats, with stronger GOP candidates doing better than the partisan lean.
House District 27
This district covers southern Volusia County, including the city of Dalton. The seat is home to a large white, working-class population and swung from Obama winning it 50-48 to Trump winning it 54-42. The seat was closer in 2014, backing Scott 48-45. Overall it leans GOP and incumbent David Santiago has raised a commanding $220,000 (with another $130,000 in a PAC). Meanwhile, Democrat Carol Lawrence has only raised $8,000 and self-funded $36,000. Bizarrely I am seeing over $87,000 in in-kind help from the RPOF. My initial suspicion was just moving money around for better ad rates, but I can’t find direct links. Either way, the district should be GOP favored but its recent swingish past means it cannot be counted out.
House District 28
Covering eastern Seminole County, this seat is left open and is normally a steadfast but only modestly GOP district. Trump only took the district 49-45 after nearly losing the county, which is largely the exurbs and suburbs of the Orlando metro zone. Scott took the district 50-43 and Romney took it 53-46. Republican nominee David Smith has raised $180,000 and self-funded $60,000. Democratic candidate Lee Mangold has received many union and democratic endorsements but only sits on $40,000 raised and $10,000 self-financed. The race definitely has a GOP advantage. However, the open nature of the race and swing away in 2016 means its worth keeping an eye on.
House District 29
Democrats held this district, based in Western Seminole County, from 2012-2014. The district backed Romney 55-44 while at the same time electing a Democrat by 1 point. Democrat Mike Clelland won in an upset that year against Speaker-Designat Chris Dortworth; who had been tainted by scandal relating to his divorce, personal finances, and committee spending. Clelland went on to lose re-election 54-44 in 2014, the same day Scott won the district by 10 points. Like the rest of Seminole, the district swung away from Trump and only backed the President 49-45. (ADD FUNDRAISING).
House District 42
Based in southern Osceola and parts of Polk County, this district is a modestly Republican district but one that always seems out of reach for democrats. The seat is a quarter Hispanic but also includes rural, conservative whites. The seat backed Trump 49-46 after backing Obama 50-49. Incumbent Mike Rosa hasn’t taken the midterm likely, raising $300,000 while Democrat Barbara Cady has raised $55,000. One big issue for democrats is weaker Hispanic turnout in midterms that could make the district harder to take. In 2014, the district backed Scott 50-43.
House District 53
Incumbent Randy Fine not especially likely he is in any risk of losing this South Brevard district. Trump won the seat 53-42 but past cycles have showed closer races; with Obama only losing it 48-49 and Crist losing it 48-44. Democratic challenger Phil Moore has raised $20,000 while Fine sits on $227,000. While on paper this should be more competitive, it appears to be off the radar this cycle. Fine recently went after Moore for his driving record – indicating Fine at least thinks the threat, possibly in a blue wave, is serious enough. Without the attack, I’d likely have this at Safe GOP. The fact Fine bothered to address Moore causes me to raise my eyebrows just a bit.
House District 60
This largely suburban district loops around the coast of Hillsborough County, this district was the home to a major fight in 2016. The then-open seat was won by Republican Jackie Toledo by 14 point the same say Trump was only taking it by a 48-47 margin. The district leans GOP overall, backing Romney 53-46 and Scott 50-44. Its swing away from Trump was on par with other suburban voter shifts. Toledo’s over-performance in 2016 increases her chances. This go around she has raised $300,000 while Democrat Debra Bellanti has raised $62,000.
House District 66
Based in central/western Pinellas County, this open seat is a modest GOP district. It backed Trump 54-40, a swing from Romney’s 52-47 win. Charlie Crist did win the district in 2014 by a 47-46 margin, but he was a local candidate. Overall this district should remain in GOP hands; but this open seat is at least worth keeping an eye on; especially in the context of how Pinellas swings as a whole. Republican Nick DiCeglie has an expensive primary to get through and overall has raised $217,000 and self-funded another $125,000. Democrat Alex Heeren has raised $51,000 and had attracted a good number of local endorsements. This almost was a SAFE GOP seat but the lack of an incumbent and swingish nature of the district resulted in a likely R rating.
House District 71
This open seat covers western Manatee county and its coast. It is a modest GOP district that gives GOP candidates between 50-55% of the vote on average. Trump’s 53-42 margin was an improvement from Romney’s 53-45 margin. Republican nominee Will Robinson has raised $318,000 and self-funded another $90,000. Democrat Tracy Pratt has raised $67,000 and self-funded another $20,000. This seat should stay in GOP hands but the Democrat does have some life and the modest margins between the two parties means its worth keeping an eye on.
House District 73
On paper this should be Safe GOP. This eastern Manattee County district gives GOP candidates over 60% of the vote on average and isn’t really on folks’ radar. The one things that leaves it slightly worth watching is the scandal brewing around Peter Gemma; a white nationalist supporter who was forced out of the Sarasota GOP but not before he held an event for GOP HD73 nominee Tommy Gregory. Everyone has rushed to seperate themselves from Gemma but the whole affair has given the regional GOP heartburn while Democratic nominee Liv Coleman has managed to take in $52,000. Gregory sits on $150,000. This seat should remain in GOP hands though.
House District 74
Another race that on paper should be in the SAFE category. This open seat, covering southern Sarasota County, gave Trump a 59-36 win, gave Romney a 56-42 win, and gave Scott a 51-42 win. The reason its worth watching is that the GOP nominee is James Buchanan, son of Congressman Buchanan, and the guy who lose the HD72 special election. Buchanan is widely considered a bad campaigner, which aided in his loss of GOP-leaning HD72. He opted to run for the seat just to the south of 72 and had a modest primary victory. He only has $150,000 while Democrat Tony Mowry has taken in $90,000. I won’t be shocked if Buchanan underperforms the rest of the GOP here. The question is simply if he falls enough to lose. He should hold on, but its worth watching.
House District 79
Covering northeastern Lee County, this open seat backed Trump 56-39, Obama 53-46, and Scott 51-42. It is a steady but not overwhelmingly GOP district. Republican nominee Spencer Roach has raised $240,000 while Democrat Mark Lipton has raised $40,000 and self-funded another $50,000. Litpon had run an aggressive campaign and has the resources to keep things interesting in an otherwise solidly Republican district.
House District 83
This district covers northern Martin County (including Stuart) and southern St Lucie County (including Port St Lucie). The district leans Republican; it backed Romney 50-49 but swung more to Trump in 2016, backing him 53-43. The district does ticket split, with Crist winning the seat 50-44 in 2014. The race is open and Republican Toby Overdorf has raised $202,000 compared with Democrat Matt Theobald’s $23,000.
Democrat-Held Safe Seats
These seats have an election but shouldn’t produce any shock results – either due to candidate quality of partisan lean – or both.
HD48 — Democrat Amy Mercado sits in this 70% Clinton, majority-Hispanic house seat based around Orlando. Her Republican opponent, Ben Chandler, raised just enough to qualify and otherwise has no real campaign.
HD49 — Democrat Carlos Guillermo Smith’s seat is plurality white with a large Hispanic minority. It covers University of Central Florida in Orange County. Republican challenger Ben Griffin actually got $50,000 from the RPOF, but otherwise only has raised $12,000 additionally. Smith won the seat in 2016 after the Republicans made a surprise win of it in 2014 thanks to a sleeping Democratic incumbent. Weaker student and Hispanic turnout in midterms does make the district more swingish in midterms, but Smith isn’t a sleeping incumbent and even in midterms the district still votes Democratic for Governor and cabinet. There is little reason to expect a shocker this time.
HD86 — Democrat Matt Willhit sits in this 60% white and solidly Democratic seat, which is based out of Wellington in Palm Beach County. The district has never been on radar for Republican and in 2016 backed Clinton by 15 points and Murphy by 9 points. Republican challenger Laurel Bennett has only raised $10,000.
HD87 — Democrat David Silvers, a white democrat, sits in this majority-Hispanic seat located in the heart of Palm Beach County. At just 50% white, Hispanics make a majority. However, due to weaker voter turnout and weaker registration rates, the district is more white in voters. Silvers won this open seat in 2016 while Clinton was winning it by 33 points. Silvers did receive a primary from Edgardo Hernandez, who despite being underfunded secured 37% of the vote. Silvers’ only challenger in November is from the GREEN Party; with candidate Samson LeBeau Kpadenou raising $6,000.
HD98 — This open seat, based around Davie and Plantation in Broward County, is not expected to generate much buzz in November. Democrats nominated attorney Michael Gottlieb in a contentious primary, but no long-lasting damage appears to have emerged from it. Republican Joseph Anthony Cruz has $25,000 raised, not nearly enough to pull off an upset in this 60% Clinton district.
HD112 — Since this district was created in 2012, the seat has been home to major electoral fights. The seat is a 70% Hispanic district based out of Southern Miami, Coral Gables, and Key Biscayne. The district is 35% Cuban, creating the well-known scenario were Democrats perform better at the top of the ticket (against white Republicans) but Hispanic Republicans do better down-ballot. José Javier Rodríguez (JJR) won the seat in 2012, defeating former State Senator Alex Diaz de la Portilla in a nasty, close, and expensive fight. He faced a serious challenge in the 2014 red wave but held in 51-49. In 2016, JJR ran for State Senate and Democrat Nicholas X. Duran won the open seat 53-47. Republicans made efforts in all three of these races but came up short. The district has moved further to the left with each election. Backing Obama by 8, Crist by 5, Murphy by 5, and Clinton by 25. The district’s smaller Cuban share meant 112 is one of the few Hispanic Dade seats that backed both Clinton and Murphy in 2016. With the GOP on defense, they have not shown any interest in making a play for this seat. Duran’s GOP opponent, Rosa Maria ‘Rosy’ Palomino, the same person he beat in 2016, has only raised $16,000 to Duran’s $159,000.
HD113 — Democrats manged to nominate their weakest candidate in this safe democratic seat based out of Miami Beach. Former commissioner Michael Grieco has been running for Mayor in 2017 but his run was stopped by investigation into a no-contest plea to setting up a political committee that aimed to accept donations from foreign donors. The scandal stopped Grieco from running for mayor or even his council seat. Just months later, and while never truly admitting his guilt, he ran for the open state house seat that covers all of the city and part of Miami. He was well-funded and took a 3-way primary with 41% against two opponents with their own issues. Luckily for Democrats, the district rarely votes Democrat by 20 points or less, meaning despite Grieco’s scandals, the seat is Safe for democrats.
Republican-Held Safe Seats
HD1 — This district, located in northern Escambia County, routinely votes over 60% for GOP candidates. Democrats have not made a serious play for this district in decades. Republicans nominated former HD2 Representative Mike Hill, who takes on Democrat Vikki Garrett.
HD3 — This is one of the most GOP districts in the state. Base out of Santa Rosa and northern Okaloosa, the district is over 75% GOP on average. Republican Jayer Williamson only has an NPA opponent.
HD4 — This dark-red district includes southern Okaloosa County. Includes famous coastal towns like Destin and includes a large military population. The district often votes over 70% Republican. Republican Incumbent Mel Ponder will easily beat Democrat Rebecca Koelzer.
HD10 — This large suburban district covers Columbia, Baker, Suwannee, and Hamilton counties. Despite being an old ancestral Democratic area, it is now solidly Republican, giving over 65% of the vote to GOP candidates. GOP candidate Chuck Brannon will easily win over a Democrat Ronald Williams and two NPAs.
HD11 — Incumbent Cord Byrd is safe in this 65%+ GOP seat that covers Nassau and Coastal Duval. Democrat Nathcelly Leroy Rohrbaugh has raised a respectable $25,000 but that doesn’t change the safe nature of this seat.
HD12 — This district, located in eastern Duval, is normally solid 60%+ GOP but gave Trump a more modest 55%-39% win thanks to suburban hesitance. That said, incumbent Clay Yarborough is aggressively campaigning and has raised $175,000 to Democrat Timothy Yost’s $18,000. No one thinks this race is on board.
HD16 — Located in southern Duval, on the St Johns County border, this high-educated suburban district saw a large gap between Trump and Rubio. Rubio took 65% to Trump’s 56%. Clinton was further down at 38%, with a 6% “other” vote. Despite suburban resistance to Trump, the district remains solidly GOP and Democrats are not aiming for this district. Republican Incumbent Jason Fischer has raised $195,000 t0 Democrat Ken Organes’ $46,000. The margin will be interesting here but there is little doubt Fischer will win.
HD17 — This district covers northern St Johns county and includes historic St Augustine. It is a 65%+ GOP seat. Republican Incumbent Cyndi Stevenson only has an NPA challenger.
HD19 – This large, rural district – covering Putnam, southern Clay, Bradford, and Union – was over 70% Republican in 2016 and normally well over 65% for the GOP. Incumbent Bobby Payne will easily beat democrat Paul Still.
HD22 — Covering all of Levy County and Southwestern Marion, this district is a solid 60%+ GOP seat. Incumbent Charlie Stone will beat Democrat Bernard Parker will ease.
HD23 — This district is eastern Marion is often over 60% GOP and Incumbent Stan McClain will easily win over Democrat Carl Griffin.
HD24 — This seat includes western Volusia County, Flagler County, and southern St Johns County. Its around 60% GOP on average and Incumbent Paul Renner should easily win over Democrat Adam Morley.
HD25 — This district covers coastal parts of Volusia county and in general is a modest GOP district. Romney took 55% of the district, which Trump improved to 58% thanks to strength with white working class voters. Incumbent Tom Leek has raised $240,000 compared to Democrat Kathleen Tripp’s $23,000.
HD31 — Located in eastern Lake County and a small part of Orange, this district is steadfast GOP, with Republican candidates normally getting high 50s support. Incumbent Jennifer Sullivan should have little issue besting Debra Kaplan, who has only raised around $23,000.
HD32 — This open seat almost got a Likely GOP rankings. Republicans nominated Eustis commissioner Anthony Sabatini in a three way primary. Sabatini has a rough reputation and doesn’t make friends easily. He has battled with fellow Republicans, similar to a Ted Cruz style, and made national headlines for welcoming Confederate Monuments to the city of Eustis. He is a weak fundraiser – only taking in $15,000 post-primary. Meanwhile, democrat Cynthia Brown has raised $22,000 and self-financed another $32,000. If this were just on candidate quality, the race would be more competitive. However, this southern Lake County district is stubbornly inelastic… with Rubio, Trump, Scott, and Romney all getting 55-56% of the vote. There just does not appear to be enough movement among these generally conservative suburban and rural voters to make the district come into play.
HD33 – This open seat includes all of Sumter County, small parts of southern Marion, and parts of northern Lake County. It is heavily influence by the Villages – a large GOP-strong retirement community that is growing every year and includes 10s of thousands of people. The community is rapidly growing and continues to be a destination for GOP-leaning retirees (countered by democrat-strong retiree areas in South Florida). The seat is solidly GOP – with Trump taking 68%, 2 points better than Romney’s 66%. Trump’s improvement was actually fueled by rural Sumter gains and he actually did very slightly worse than Romney did in the Villages themselves. Republicans amazingly had no primary for this open seat – with Sumter Chamber of Commerce President Brett Hage securing the nomination. Hage is not a member of the villages and has raised $209,000. Democrats nominated Oren L. Miller, who IS a Villages resident but only has $18,000. This seat remains Safe for the GOP, but I will be curious of Miller outperforms other democrats in his retirement community. The last two state representatives did live in the Villages.
HD34 — Covering all of Citrus and part of Western Hernando, this district saw a large swing from Romney to Trump, who took 68% of the vote. Even if the swing to the right tilted back a bit, Romney’s 59% and Rick Scott’s 53%-38% 2014 Governor victory do not point to a major opportunity for Democrats. Incumbent Ralph Massullo has only raised $65,000 and doesn’t appear worried about Democrat Paul John Reinhardt, who has only taken in $2,000.
HD35 — This district includes the rest of Hernando County (not taken by 34) and is held by RPOF Chairman Blaise Ingoglia. The district took a swing to the right in 2016, backing Trump 61-34 after only going for Romney by a 53%-45% margin. In addition, Rick Scott only beat Crist 47%-45% in the district. However, despite some recent closer races, this is not a priority for Democrats. Their nominee, Colleen Kasperek, has only raised a few thousand dollars and Ingoglia has over $170,000.
HD37 — Located in central Pasco, HD37 os a solid GOP seat, giving Republicans around 55-60% – with only Crist coming close to winning it for Dems (still losing it by 6). Republicans nominated Ardian Zika, who has raised $200,000 compared to Democrat Ardian Zika’s $15,000.
HD38 — Based out of eastern Pasco, incumbent Danny Burgess is safe in the modesty, but steadily, GOP seat. Republicans often pull around 55% and Democrats really don’t come close to closing the gap. Burgess only has an underfunded NPA opponent.
HD39 — This district, located in northern Polk County, was recently filled in a special election. Republican Josie Tomkow easily held the seat for the GOP earlier this year. This time, her Democratic challenger has only raised $3,000 to qualify and otherwise raising money.
HD40 – This seat covers Lakeland and its surrounding population – a nice compact seat nestles in Polk County. Its a modestly GOP seat, with Republicans getting low to mid 50s. Trump won it 54-41, which was a jump from Romney’s 52-46 win. Democrats don’t have the seat on their radar. Democrat Shandale Terrell has only raised $9,000 while incumbent Colleen Burton has raised $224,000.
HD50 — Incumbent Rene Plasencia had an upset victory in 2014 when he beat Joe Saunders in the much more Democratic HD49. Realizing the red wave had propelled him, Plasencia opted to run in the more GOP House District 50 in 2016, which he won. This district, based out of eastern Orange County and Northern Brevard County, is a modest GOP district. Trump only won it 50-45 while Rubio won it 54-41. Obama lost the district 52-46. In theory this district could be a Democratic opportunity due to the more modest GOP results. However, despite some early rumbling the seat might be targetted, the race fell off the radar quick. Democratic challenger Pam Dirschka has only raised $13,000 and outside help appears to be coming. Plasencia has a contentious primary that he won and has raised $217,000 to date.
HD51 — Covering Kennedy Space Center, this district covers most of Northeastern Brevard County. Its a fairly GOP seat with Republicans polling about 55% in most instances. Republicans had a heated primary for this seat, which was won by Tyler Sirois. Democrat Mike Blake has raised just $14,000 while Sirois has raised $130,000 – with $22,000 of that since the primary. There is no indicators this seat is being vulnerable to flipping.
HD52 — Former State Senator Thad Altman won this House seat, located in middle Brevard County, in 2016. In both the 2016 and 2018 GOP primaries, he faced challenges from the right. Altman has always been a thorn in the side of GOP leaders and while he’s steadily conservative, he does have some moderate credentials that have upset activists. He is also not known as a fierce campaigner. Altman won his GOP primary this year by a less-than-stellar 55-45 margin. However, he has little to worry about in the general. The seat often gives Republicans around 60% of the vote and Democrat Seeta Durjan Begui has only raised $13,000. Altman has only raised $70,000 in his entire bid and only $5,000 post-primary — indicating he’s not worried about November.
HD54 — Here is a race where geography can make it more interesting that it should be. HD54 covers Indian River County, a very conservative county but a pro-environment won were the politics has been upended by Florida’s algae crisis. Residents have been furious by green-looking water in the Indian River lagoon – a result of toxic algae runoff from Lake Okeechobee. Democrats have been making this a major campaign issue, arguing weak pollution laws are to blame. Incumbent Erin Grall is on the defense against a Democrat, Nicole Haagenson, who is making this a major issue. She has raised a decent share of money $40,000. Grall sits on $157,000. The problem for Haagenson is the district is normally very red – backing Republicans with close to 60%. I believe there is a good chance Republicans under-perform in these areas thanks to the crisis – however, its very unlikely the needle moves enough to put this seat in play.
HD55 — This rural central-Florida seat covers Okeechobee, Highlands, and Glades county. It is very conservative, backing Republicans with over 60% and shows little appetite for electing Democrats. While Glades remains an ancestral Democratic county, with many local Democratic officials, the remaining counties are more solid GOP. Incumbent Cary Pigman did find himself in a scandal in 2017, getting pulled over with a DUI on highway. The scandal, however, didn’t generate any GOP primary challenges (though it probably did factor in him not making a run for state senate) and his only opponent is Democrat Audrey Asciutto. The money race has been very low, with Pigman only raising $55,000 and Asciutto raising $15,000. Pigman is a fairly week incumbent but the seat isn’t going to elect a Democrat.
HD56 — What a bizarre race this one is. Technically its actually Unopposed – as both candidates are Republicans. This race should have been handled in August in a GOP primary between Melony Bell and Jeff Mann. A write-in had filed for the general, closing that primary to just Republicans. However, that write-in withdrew after it revealed he was tricked into filing. The late break meant the primary couldnt be opened for August and it was ordered an open primary (all voters can cast ballots) will be in November. Mann was apparently the one who pushed to get the write-in filled and received negative press for his role. Bell as far more money ($210,000 to $50,000). the seat covers southwestern Polk, DeSoto, and Hardee county.
HD57 — Located in southeastern Hillsborough, a much more conservative part of the otherwise-blue county, HD57 tends to give Republicans 55% of the vote or more. No recent Democratic statewide candidate has come within 10 points of the seat. The seat is open. Republicans nominated Mike Beltran, who has raised $75,000 and self-funded $130,000; while Democrat Debbie Katt has raised $25,000.
HD58 – There was a special election for this district, located in Northeastern Hillsborough, late in 2017. Republicans held the seat, which backed Republicans but by modest margins. Trump won the seat 53-43 while Obama lost the seat 52-47. The seat has a growing Democratic base in Temple Terrace while Republicans have been stronger in the more sparsely populated areas as well as Plant City. Turnout among the districts modest Hispanic and Black populations have the ability to make it closer. Right now though, the seat remains fairly safe the GOP. Incumbent Lawrence McClure has raised $72,000 while Phil Hornback has raised $16,000. After the special election loss, Democrats aren’t making this seat a target.
HD64 – James Grant’s recent bid for Speaker of the House did not end well, but he can take stock in the fact he’s safe for re-election. This district sits in the northwestern suburbs of Hillsborough County, stretching into Northeastern Pinellas. The district, filled with educated white suburban voters, swung away from the GOP in 2016; backing Trump 52-43 after backing Romney 55-43. Despite the swing, the district still remains in the most GOP column and Democratic challenger Jessica Harrington has only raised $4,000. Democrat’s attention in Hillsborough is geared towards other state house seats.
HD65 – Based in northwestern Pinellas County, the most Republican region of the county, Incumbent Chris Sprowls is safe from Democrats. The seat backed Trump 54-40 and only came within 5 points when Charlie Crist, who comes from the area, came just short in it 47-46 in his 2014 Governor run. Obama lost the seat in 54-45 in 2012 – but Democrats actually managed to win the seat that year against Incumbent Peter Nehr. Democrat Carl Zimmermann held the seat for one term and was a prime target in 2014, where he lost to Sprowls. The 2016 campaign didn’t see the district be a major focus. Sprowls has raised $260,000 while Democrat Sally A. Laufer has raised $9,000 and self-funded $20,000.
HD67 — On paper this district should absolutely be competitive. The seat, based out of middle Pinellas and eastern Clearwater, backed Trump 49-45 after backing Obama 52-46. It was part of the swing toward Trump among working class whites. Democrats could easily make a play for a seat like this, however, incumbent Chris Latvala makes the district more out of reach. Chris hails from two very powerful parents – Jack Latvala, a longtime State Senator, and Susan Latvala, who was on the Pinellas School Board in the 1990s and county commission till 2014. Both Jack and Susan hailed from the moderate wing of the Republican Party an the Latvala name carried a good deal of weight in the county. Chris Latvala won his seat by 5% in 2014 and 17% in 2016. While the Latvala name has taken a hit due to Jack Latvala’s harassment accusations and subsequent resignation, Chris Latvala appears to have avoided the bad association. His democratic opponent, Tom Ryan, has only raised $2,500 and no active campaign is going on to take the seat.
HD76 — Covering coastal Lee County, this district is steadfast GOP. Trump’s 61% was down from Romney’s 64%, but this is still far out of the range for democrats. Incumbent Ray Rodrigues has raised $214,000 while Democrat David Bogner has only raised $4,000.
HD77 — Dana Eagle, who represents this western Lee County (Cape Coral) district, got in trouble a few years ago when he was pulled over driving drunk in Tallahassee. However, no political reprodusions followed and he’s avoided primary challenges. This district is steadfast GOP, with Republicans getting anywhere from 55% to 63% of the vote. Eagle has over $200,000 while his Democratic opponent, Alanis Elizabeth Garcia, only raised $3,000.
HD78 — The least Republican Lee County district. This seat covers Fort Meyers and backed Trump 53-42 while giving Scott 56% in 2014. The district is still too Republican to really be a priority for Democrats. Incumbent Heather Fitzenhagen has raised $260,000 while Democrat Parisima Taeb has raised $20,000 and self-funded $10,000 more.
HD80 — This seat covers all of rural Hendry County and the northern portions of Collier. It is heavily dominated by agriculture and is a mixture of conservative whites and Hispanics. Census figures say the district is 33% Hispanic – however that includes migrant workers who cannot vote. The district is also home to Ave Mario – a planned community in Collier County that was founded by the founder of Dominoes Pizza. The town centers around Ave Maria University – a private catholic college. The district backed Trump with 59% and Romney with 60%. Lower Hispanic turnout in midterms make it even more conservative. Incumbent Byron Donalds, who’s raised $150,000, should have no issue with re-election over Democrat Jennifer Boddicker, who has raised $7,000.
HD82 — Based in Martin County and the city of Jupiter in Palm Beach County, this district is steadfast Republican. Martin County rarely votes Democrat (Patrick Murphy’s 2014 blowout re-election for FL 18 stands out) and normally gives GOP candidates close to 60% of the vote. One issue upsetting normal politics in the county is the runoff of pollution/algae from Lake Okeechobee. The concerns over this sparked Martin to only give 80% of its vote to Rick Scott in his GOP primary against a perennial candidate. While the algae crisis is in the forefront of these voters’ minds, it does appear incumbent MaryLynn Magar is suffering directly. Her Democratic opponent, Edward Francis O’Connor, is making algae an issue but not the defining issue. Magar has raised $160,000 to O’Connor’s $16,000. The district is likely just too red for Democrats to make a play in – local issues aside.
HD85 — This district, based around Juno Beach in northern Palm Beach County, is more competitive on paper than it appears to be this cycle. The district backed Trump 53-45 and Romney 52-47; it also backed Crist 49-48 in the 2014 Governor race. However, it appears this district is not generating any major activity. Incumbent Rick Roth, knowing issues important to his coastal community, has made dealing with sea level rise and climate change part of his profile. Roth has raked in $183,000 while his democratic opponent, Ellen Baker, has raised $13,000.
HD106 — The most conservative seat in South Florida, this district encompasses all of coastal Collier County, including all of Naples. The district saw a large swing away from Trump as educated, suburban voters rejected the controversial candidate. Despite the shift, the district still backed Trump 63-33 while it had backed Romney 68-31 in 2012. Incumbent Bob Rommel seems to have offended few in first term and got some heavy praised from the local newspaper of Naples. He has raised $177,000 for his re-election. His democratic opponent, Sara McFadden, has raised an impressed $55,000 and self-funded another $100,000. No thats not a typo… one-hundred-thousand. This haul gave me pause for a minute on ranking the district (debated Likely GOP). But objectively this district is just too steadfast GOP for an upset to be possible. Rommel’s lack of scandal means money-parity isn’t enough. Realistically, if Rommel falls into the high 50s, that will be notable.
HD111 — In Miami-Dade’s Hispanic districts, one rule always applies, Presidential margins are misleading. HD111 is a majority-Cuban district in the heart of Dade. Trump’s historically-low showing with the normally-GOP Cuban population lead to him losing the district 52-45. However, the district voted for Rubio over Murphy by a 57-41, margin that same day. In 2014, the district backed Scott 60-37. Obama also lost the district by 3%, 51-48. Of the many Hispanic seats in Dade, HD116 is one of the least friendly for Democrats down-ballot. Incumbent Bryan Avila has raised $142,000 compared with Democrat Rizwan Ahmed’s $15,000.
HD116 — In Miami-Dade’s Hispanic districts, one rule always applies, Presidential margins are misleading. HD116 is a majority-Cuban district in the heart of Dade. Trump’s historically-low showing with the normally-GOP Cuban population lead to him losing the district 51-45. However, the district voted for Rubio over Murphy by a 57-41, margin that same day. In 2014, the district backed Scott 57-40. Obama also lost the district by 10%, 54-44. A special election for the district was held in 2017 and was a 2-1 GOP hold. Of the many Hispanic seats in Dade, HD116 is one of the least friendly for Democrats down-ballot. Incumbent Daniel Perez has raised $240,000 compared with Democrat James Harden’s $5,000.
Conclusion
The GOP gerrymander and resources advantage of the Florida Republican Party means the Florida House remains safe for the GOP. Democrats cannot win the chamber, but they can make gains and are expected to do so. In the month I’ve been working on this Democrats saw their prospects improve in several races. The question will simply be how many districts they can take if a blue wave hits Florida and how well their candidates can perform relative to the top of the ticket.
