While the Presidential and US Senate contests are the top of the ticket in Florida this year, if you live in North Florida, those contests have felt like afterthoughts. People in Tallahassee and the surrounding counties have spent the last 5 months bombarded with nonstop advertisements for State Senate District 3. Over ten million dollars has likely been spent on the race; flooding the district with television ads, digital ads, mailers, text messaging, and door knocking. At this point in the cycle, there is likely no one in the area that doesn’t know everything they ever needed to know about candidate Daryl Parks and Corey Simon. The amount being spent up here is unprecedented. Voters from across the political spectrum are BEGGING for it to end.
So why is there is much money flocking into North Florida? The answer is simple, its the only competitive race on the ballot Tuesday.
Florida’s State Senate Districts
Florida is divided into 40 State Senate districts. If you have never given much thought to the State Senate map, the 2022-approved plan can be seen below. Right there in the center of North Florida lies Senate District 3.
The State Senate map leans Republican, reflecting the GOP lean of the state. I could discuss questionable linework, namely the gerrymandering of Tampa Bay or Gainesville. However, that is a topic for another time. The map is far more balanced that the obscene Congressional gerrymander, I will say that. Regardless, under the current map, most districts in the state are either solidly Republican or solidly Democratic.
All districts were up in 2022. I preview those races here. Democrats went into the election hoping to defend the 3rd district and 14th district while winning the 38th and 10th. However, as 2022 proved to be a disastrous year for Florida Democrats, several Biden seats went to Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio. In the Governor’s race, DeSantis won SIX Biden seats.
In the US Senate race, Marco Rubio won four of the Biden seats, with districts 25 and 37 going for Democrat Val Demings.
The terrible midterm was thanks to a historically bad Democratic turnout. Republican turnout was 14% higher than Democrats, leading to a 12% lead in vote cast. This swamped out several marginal districts. I delved into the data here. The terrible turnout led to Democratic losing the 3rd, 10th, 14th, and 38th. It was a bad night for Florida Democrats. I specifically went into the battles for the State Senate in this post-2022 review article. The 2022 midterm is the new benchmark for terrible Democratic performances.
With these losses, Democrats find themselves with just 12 seats to the Republican’s 28. Now, the 3rd, 10th, 14th, and 38th are all good pickup opportunities for Democrats. However, Democrats cannot run for all those seats this year. You see, every district was up in 2022 due to redistricting. However, the way Florida law works is that the odd-numbered seats were running for just two-year terms, with a 2024 race to be for a four year term. The even-numbered seats were elected to four-year terms in 2022, meaning they won’t be up until 2026. Due to this, only the 3rd is up this year. Democrats cannot take shots at the other races I listed until 2026.
With the odd-only districts up, there are few competitive races. Democrats only have the 3rd as a realistic pickup opportunity. Republicans, meanwhile, could have made plays for the DeSantis-voting 25th or 37th. However, that has not really come to fruition. As a result, all sides have barreled ahead in Senate District 3. The result has been a monumental flood of campaign dollars. The only other districts to see as much money spent as Senate 3 are several of the safer districts that had contested primaries. You can go back and read my State Senate Primary Preview to read more about some of the other races. Several primaries for Safe seats saw millions spent, but in the general these races are total afterthoughts.
I am going to talk at length about the Senate District 3 general election. However, first let me touch on the 25th and 37th, the only other even potential interesting races.
Senate District 25
Covering all of Osceola County and part of Southern Orange, Senate District 25 is a majority-Hispanic district that is usually reliably Democratic. The Hispanic population leans heavily Puerto Rican, a solid Democratic voting block in the central Florida region. The district backed Joe Biden by 18 points and heading into 2022, no one even had it on their radar. However, when the results came in that year, incumbent Victor Torres was only winning by 5% against a no-name challenger and DeSantis was narrowly taking the seat.
The culprit for this was not a massive swing in Hispanic voters. I have documented issues Biden had with dropping Hispanic support, including in the Osceola region. I discussed this at length in my 2020 retrospective article here. However, this was not the cause of problems in 2022.
The issue that year was turnout. I documented turnout in the region in this article. In Senate District 25 in the midterm, Hispanic turnout was just 26% while white turnout was 51%. As a result, the district, despite being far more Hispanic in registration, was almost majority white in votes cast. Republican turnout was also 16 points higher than Democrats. In all, the makeup of the district was whiter and more conservative than it ever had been before.
Republicans maybe had their eyes on this district at one point. However, they clearly have not kept interest in it. With Torres termed out, all the focus and money went into the Democratic Primary. I covered that in depth in my primary preview. The race was between State Representative Kristen Arrington, Carmen Torres, the wife of Vic, and former Congressman Alan Grayson. In a multi-million dollar slugfest, Arrington easily prevailed with 51% of the vote.
Arrington, who is white, managed to win white, Black, and Hispanic voters. Torres made strong efforts to argue for continuing to have a Hispanics representative, but the Hispanic voters decided that was not their main concern. A big driver for Arrington was for Osceola to get their turn at having a State Senator; with the Torres’ from Orange. Polling for the general has shown Arrington is finding little issue keeping Hispanic voters on her side. Her Republican opponent Jose Martinez, has done little campaigning sense he won the primary.
The only thing that would put Arrington at risk would be a turnout collapse that could cause Trump to flip the district. Well so far the turnout is much better for Democrats; with Hispanic turnout increasing as early voting has gone on. With major Democratic GOTV efforts underway for this race and several local races from early voting and into election day, no one is expecting any shockers here. My intention is to do a retrospective on this race after the general to look back and Arrington and her success with Hispanic voters.
Senate District 37
There is even less to say about the other DeSantis-Biden seat: District 37. This coastal seat in Broward and Miami-Dade County went for Biden by 13 points and narrowly backed DeSantis two years later.
Turnout again was an issue here, as was DeSantis winning over many of the upper-income communities along the coast. However, Democratic incumbent Jason Pizzo, the incoming Senate Democratic leader, only has a perennial candidate as an opponent. Imtiaz Mohammad, who has run as a Democrat many times before across south Florida, is now running against Pizzo as a Republican. He has raised less than $5,000 and is destined to get blown out. Republicans didn’t even recruit a lowly town councilor against Pizzo. This isn’t a race. Its so much not a race that Pizzo spent his weekend up in Tallahassee to help out in Senate District 3!
With that, lets move on to the big race!
Senate District 3
The lone true tossup race for this year lies in North Florida – with Senate District 3. A seat that is anchored in Tallahassee and surrounded by 12 rural counties. This district voted for Joe Biden by 3% in 2020.
District 3 is the largest district by land size in the state. Over half of its vote comes from Leon County/Tallahassee. However, after you leave the main city, the entire region becomes very rural. In the modern political environment, the rural voters of Florida are overwhelmigly Republican. The remaining Democratic precincts you see in the outlying counties are either majority-Black or have a solid Black share of the vote. As such, outside of Leon, the only other Democratic county at this point is Gadsden, which is rural but majority-Black. Rural whites, meanwhile, often top out at over 80% GOP.
The Land of the Ancestral Democrats
Red rural North Florida was not always the case. If you have followed my writing for any amount of time, I’ve often discussed how this area used to be an ancestral Democratic region. In fact, sometime after this election, I will have a much more comprehensive deep-dive into State Senate races in this part of Florida. This was for a long time an area of Florida that would never even see Republicans run down-ticket. While it was always conservative, like much of the deep south, it was solidly Democratic.
In 2000, when the longtime State Senator Pat Thomas was termed out, Al Lawson became the first Black State Senator in the region since reconstruction. I covered his rise here. After a bruising Democratic Primary, his general election was an absolutely cake walk.
When Lawson won by 30% that say, the district was only narrowly backing Al Gore for President. This was an era of down-ticket Democratic strength.
Even in major contests, like the 2002 Governor Election, Democrat Bill McBride did very well in the region as he lost by 13 points statewide.
This was the land of blue dog and/or yellow-dog democrats. Even as Republicans like George Bush or John McCain would win the top of the ticket, the down-ballot remained Democratic.
Even as late as 2016, Democratic Senator Bill Montford was winning a slightly different version of the district by 35%. Montford, who came from Calhoun County but was elected off and on in Leon, had strong support among the rural whites of the west end of the district.
The same day that Montford was winning his re-election, Hillary Clinton was winning the district by around 9%, winning largely the same areas Biden would win in 2020.
The End of of the Blue Dog Democrats
In 2020, Bill Montford was termed out of office. Democrats quickly united around State Representative Loranne Ausley to run for the seat. Ausley came from a prominent family that had many long ties to the region. When she ran for Florida Chief Financial Officer in 2010, she vastly overperform in the the panhandle area. This was a reflection not only of the power of local ties, but the willingness of this region to vote Democratic down-ticket for someone they trusted.
However, the 2010s came to an end, the ticket splitting nature of the district was rapidly receding. The rural counties of the region were once the types of communities that would always vote Democratic for Sheriff or County Commission, Republican for President, and maybe Democratic for legislator. However, as the 2020s came into focus, the era of down-ballot rural Democrats was almost long gone.
Here is the registration by party in the panhandle in 2012.
Here is the registration as of 2022.
In the 2016 election, the one that saw Montford win 2-1, most county commissions in the district remained firmly Democratic.
However, a map today would show all but Gadsden and Leon as red in North Florida. Democratic incumbents change parties, retire, or lose. I actually plan on a major review of local political shifts in the coming months. So keep an eye out for that. The point is, nowadays all that North Florida blue is North Florida red.
For example, Liberty County, despite being a very Republican county for federal offices, had never elected a Republican to local office. That changed in 2020, when every D v R local race went to a Republican.
Liberty was the final of the counties to elect Republicans to local office. By this point most of the counties, which once had 5-0 Democratic commissions when Montford first won in 2010, were now solidly Republican. As such, when Ausley ran for the seat, she was not going to have as much rural crossover as she once had in her 2010 CFO race.
Loranne Ausley’s 2020 and 2022 Campaigns
In the 2020 contest for State Senate, Ausley faced firs-time candidate Marva Preston; a retired cop and Black woman who lived in Wakulla County. Republicans spent millions in the 2020 election aiming to put Ausley at risk. Republicans believed they could win over some Black voters while also consolidating rural support and flip the district. However, as I wrote about at the time, this seat was Clinton +9 seat and Ausley was too strong to underperform that much. I did believe that Republicans aimed to weaken Ausley in anticipation of a 2022 campaign. In the end, Ausley would win against Preston by 7%.
Ausley’s win was much more of a traditional Democratic win. She did around 2.6% worse than Joe Biden did that same day. She did indeed underperform with Black voters, but made up for it by overperforming with some of the rural whites. However, this is far from the 2016 Bill Montford map.
Ausley was not out of the woodwork yet, however. She would have to run again in 2022 after redistricting was completed. Everyone knew the map would be changing, as the district was underpopulated. This meant adding new counties – and every county in the area was solidly Republican. Ausley was destined to get a redder seat.
In the end, the map changes were exactly what I’d predicted before any drafts came out. There was really only one option – what you see below.
When Ausley gained Lafayette, Suwannee, and Dixie counties, she went from a Biden +9 seat to a Biden +3 seat. To go against her, Republicans recruited Corey Simon to the race.
Simon was top recruit for the district from the Republican Party. He played for FSU and was part of the 1999 season where FSU won a national championship. He went on to have a successful NFL career. After retiring from football, and as a Republican, he was made the head of Volunteer Florida. His story and career make him a strong recruit for the district. Word is it took some time to convince him to leave Volunteer Florida to make the move. Republicans almost surely promised Simon, who didn’t get in the race to right around qualifying, that all the money needed would be there.
With Simon, Republicans again hoped to eat away at Black support for Ausley, while also holding the rural communities. Ausley struggled to come up with an effective attack against Simon, who largely avoided hot button issues with the press and aimed to run on his biography. Simon would go on to win the race by 6%, being the first Republican to win a panhandle State Senate seat like this since reconstruction.
Ausley’s campaign had several tough weeks, which I discussed in my 2022 ratings article. However, nothing would have mattered considering how bad 2022 was for Democrats. Charlie Crist would lose the district by 10 points in the Governor race. Ausley outperformed him by 4 points, largely only doing worse in some of the Black precincts of the district.
In truth, for all of the Republican efforts around getting Simon Black voters, there was only modest ticket splitting. The race largely was just a classic D v R, with Black voters and liberal whites sticking with Ausley and rural and suburban conservatives going with Simon. In Leon County, the results map looked similar to virtually any other D v R race.
The 2022 race was for just a two year term, so Simon would need to face the voters again in 2024. Democrats hoped that the 2022 loss would be a fluke.
Parks Enters the 2024 Contest
For much of 2023, it was unclear who would run against Simon. Defeating the incumbent would not be easy and at first few stepped up to make the big. Democratic fortunes turned around drastically in the spring of 2024 when Civil Rights Attorney Daryl Parks announced he would challenge Simon. Parks is best known nationally for working with Ben Crump as part of the Parks and Crump law firm. Both men have been involved in many major civil rights cases in Florida. Crump has become a national figure with his legal and advocacy work on civil rights, discrimination, and police brutality cases.
Parks instantly brought massive heft to the campaign. He became the de-facto nominee the second he entered the race. Officially, he had to win the Democratic primary against Gadsden County Commissioner Kimblin NeSmith; but this was never in doubt. When the August primary occurred, Parks and Simon were already going back and forth in mail and on TV. Parks formally secured the nomination with 76% of the vote in August.
Parks won across the district with the exception of some rural communities. He even won Gadsden County, though NeSmith did well in his western-Gadsden district. Park’s only lost Dixie County, where a large number of rural Democrats remain. These rural white Democrats are conservatives that will be voting Simon in November. NeSmith, who had less than $50,000 to campaign in, saw plenty of his vote coming from conservative protest votes.
The Money Fight
Parks entering the race guaranteed this would be an insanely expensive contest. Parks has raised over $600,000 just via his official campaign committee, keeping pace with Cory Simon. However, the campaigns formally raised cash is nothing compared to the massive party spending in the race. With this the only major fight in the state, both parties have invested millions in in the contest. All told, Republicans have likely spent over $10,000,000 in the race. Democrats have likely dropped at least $5,000,000. The money can be hard to track, but it is likely to be the most expensive state senate race of the cycle. More has been spent here than in several congressional races.
Parks has hit Simon hard on Florida’s increasingly expensive homeowners insurance market. Florida’s insurance prices have become one of the biggest political issues in the state; with many homeowners simply unable to afford protections as rates skyrocket and insurance companies pull out of the state. This issue has become a big liability for incumbent lawmakers.
Simon has been attacked for being a GOP rubber stamp in the legislature. Simon has also been subject to major attacks of abortion rights. Simon has tried to claim moderation, voting against the 6-week ban. However, he voted for amendments in committee that would have further restricted access below the 15 weeks that used to be the law. Simon has also said he will vote AGAINST Amendment 4, which would repeal the current 6-week ban and go to viability.
The Republicans, meanwhile, have engaged in an insane race-baiting campaign that tries to tries to paint Parks as a man who wants to instigate violence and racial tension. They have weaponized his work for racial justice in a tactic that you could have seen in the 1960s.
Parks has answered these charges in television ads.
The fact that Republicans have engaged in this type of campaign shows they no longer feel Simon can pull any serious number of Black voters. Instead, Republicans are aiming to scare off moderate whites and hopefully get some ticket-splitting in the Tallahassee suburbs while consolidating the rural white vote.
I should note, and I checked around, the mailers attacking Parks on race are NOT going to Black households. Huh….. I wonder why.
The Final Push
Heading into the election, the noise of the campaign messaging has given way to turnout efforts. Both parties are working hard to bring out their voters. The two parties have a near-even number of voters to show up, with both having tens of thousands of super voters and less reliable voters yet to cast ballots.
For Democrats, they benefit from very strong turnout so far in the college campuses of Tallahassee. A political committee, Florida Future Leaders, is one of several organizations working to turn out students in the district. Senator Pizzo has discussed the importance of student turnout. Black turnout has consistently increased as the last week went on. Sunday was the big “Souls to the Polls” day – where Black voters come out to vote after Church services. The effect of this was seen in Leon County, where Democrats had a 10 point lead in in early voting before Sunday, and Sunday itself was Democrat +28!
The big issue for Democrats is lagging Black turnout in several of the rural counties. However, in Tallahassee and the rest of the district, election day is often one of the most busy days for Black voters. A ruby-red election day is not really the norm in this part of the state. Both parties going into election day hoping for an election day that tilts more their way. However, I will say that the Democrats have more super voters outstanding.
How the final vote looks is the biggest question. The other big question then will be how independents go. Independents in the district are hardly a unified block, with some being students, others being suburbanites in Tallahassee, and others being conservative-minded rural voters. We will see how much all these ads penetrated voter minds.
Final Thoughts
Heading into 2024, before Daryl Parks had filed for this seat, I was becoming increasingly pessimistic that Simon could be beaten. Six months later and I view this race as a pure tossup. It could go either way. I will also say this, if Parks does not win, then it likely tells me this district is gone for some time. Tallahassee is not Atlanta – it is not growing in some massive way. This district will continue to be a battle between the red-rural counties and the Leon and Gadsden Democratic core. Parks has proven to be a stellar candidate against Simon, with a well-run campaign. If Parks cannot win, I just don’t know who can.
When I finish up my comprehensive history of the State Senate in North Florida, my article is going to end one of two ways. It will either be about “the blip that was Corey Simon” or it will be about “the formal end of Democratic power in the Big Bend of Florida.”