Florida had five statewide races on its ballot in 2018. In addition to the high profile US Senate and Gubernatorial contests – Florida held elections for its Attorney General, Chief Financial Officer, and Agriculture Commissioner. All of these races were relatively close. The biggest gap was the GOP’s 6% win for Attorney General. CFO was decided by 3% and the remaining were all decided by less than 1%. This marked one of the closest election seasons in Florida history.
I broke those races down by State Senate district to see how the map, passed after 2015’s mid-decade redistricting lawsuit, reflected the state’s close divide. The results were promising. The lines showed they well-represented Florida’s close political divide.
For a comparison to 2018, this is how the map broke down in the 2016 Presidential Election.
In 2016, the close Presidential race saw Clinton win 19 seats to Trump’s 21. Obama won 21 seats in his 2012 re-election bid.
The first race I looked at for 2018 was Governor, which saw DeSantis pull off a narrow win. DeSantis subsequently won 21 districts, the same number as Trump. However, one difference was the 8th flipped to Democrats and 36th flipped to the GOP.
The 8th was already very close in 2016, but what flipped it to the Democrats was Alachua County’s strong Democratic shift. The shift was aided by strong campus margins at UF as well as blue shifts in the Gainesville suburbs.
The 36th is based in Cuban-heavy Hialeah. Clinton dominated in the district in 2016 and Obama had a more modest win, but the district is much more conservative in midterms thanks to stronger GOP Hispanic turnout. The issues with Miami-Dade county in 2018 are detailed here.
The Nelson-Scott map, which saw a margin of just 10,000 votes, saw the same 21-19 breakdown, but Nelson came closer to winning the 24th, which would have tied the totals.
The closest race was the Agriculture Commissioner contest, which Democrat Nikki Fried won by just 5,000 votes. Fried and Caldwell tied the total districts, with the 24th flipping to her.
The Chief Financial Officer race was won by Republican Jimmy Patronis with a 3% margin. Patronis won an extra district, flipping the 39th. The 18th and 8th were also extremely close and almost flipped.
The biggest win came from Ashley Moody, who took the Attorney General race by 6%. She flipped the 39th, 8th, and 18th; allowing her to take 24 districts.
The full breakdown for all five races are below.
Overall, 20/40 districts backed all five statewide Republicans while 16 backed all Democrats.
For Democrats, their 5/5 seats all came from districts dominated by cities.
- SD3 – While it looks rural, over 2/3 of its vote are from Tallahassee and majority-black Gadsden County
- SD6 – Based around African-American communities in Jacksonville
- SD 11/13/15 – All urban districts covering Orange and Osceola counties
- SD19 – African-American seat that goes from Tampa to St Pete
- SD 29/30/31/33/34/35/38/39/40 – All urban districts of the southeast
Senate District 39 is the swingiest district. It was the closest Miami-Dade district in 2016; a combo of African-Americans, the Keys, and Cubans.
Senate District 8 went from being narrow Trump to fairly reliably Democratic thanks to the swing of Alachua. Only Moody won it, and by far less than her statewide margin.
It is also worth noting that Senate District 9, despite being 5/5 GOP, was very close in several races. Seminole County’s shift to the left has made SD9 more contentious than the past (it was the Volusia portion that kept it with the GOP).
Partisan Shift from 2016
Looking at how the districts shifted from 2016 reveals a striking pattern. Most districts swung toward Democrats, but areas in Orlando and Dade swung further to the GOP. Miami-Dade’s swing is heavily attributed to Trump’s historic weakness with Cubans in 2016, as well as the stronger GOP Hispanic turnout in the miderm.
Comparing Nelson and Clinton shows massive GOP shifts in Miami-Dade and part of Orlando. The big gains in SD15 can be attributed to Rick Scott’s push with the Puerto Rican community.
The Gillum-Clinton map shows a smaller shift in SD15 but a few extra districts with slight GOP gains. Overall the major story is Miami-Dade’s movement.
I delve deep into Dade’s issue in my article, including breakdowns by legislative districts; so I definitely recommend that read if you want to know more.
The Effect of Redistricting
Florida went through an intense mid-decade redistricting in 2015 when the state was sued over its maps. After internal legislative fights and intense hearings, the state court decided on a final map. Early analysis showed the final products where more representative of the state and this has been confirmed by the 2016 and 2018 elections. I did want to look back though and see how the statewide races would have broken down using the older lines. The results of that can be seen below.
The Governor’s race, held under the old lines, would have resulted in two fewer democratic seats. Dade’s old lines were drawn to pack in Cubans and keep all African-Americans clustered in a large SD39. Other notable issues with the old lines – Hispanics are packed in Orlando and Alachua is paired with deep-red Clay.
Nelson would have done one seat better, taking a district in Miami-Dade that Gillum didn’t.
Things fall off a cliff in the Attorney General race, with Shaw only taking 14 districts.
Ring barely does better than Shaw, taking only 15 seats.
Even when Nikki Fried won the Agriculture Commissioner race, she only takes 18 districts.
The comparisons between the old and new lines show the nature of the former GOP gerrymander. The best Democrats could do was 18/40 seats, despite either winning or narrowly losing 3 races.
The old map not only resulted in a worse balance of seats won, but several of the Democratic districts were also much narrower than under the current lines. The old map was a clear GOP gerrymander.
State Senate Races
Heading into 2018, Democrats held 16 seats to the GOP’s 24. There was only one notable Democratic seat to defend while Republicans had several seats up that would likely be targeted. The top priority seats for Democrats to take were the 16th, 18th, and 8th. In addition, the party was making efforts to put the 24th, 14th, 23rd, 25th, and 36th on the map, though these were all more favorable to the Republicans.
Heading into October, the Democrats had enough seats on the board to potentially take the chamber, though that was still a small chance (as they’d need to net 5 seats). My rankings are below, with more details in this article. Overall I stand by my rankings – except for the 22nd and 23rd.
The Democrats did pick up the 18th in a very close race. However, they didn’t manage to pick up any other seats.
The big problem the Democrats ran into was many of the targets wound up being more GOP at the top of the ticket than expected/hoped and ticket splitting wasn’t strong enough in others. The full breakdown of districts up in 2018 is below.
I’m going to go over a few of the districts in greater detail. But for the others here are some thoughts.
- SD14 – The race in this district became chaotic with the sad death of Incumbent Dorothy Hukill. The result was a GOP replacement on the ballot and both parties putting money and effort into the district. This felt like a long-shot but the Democrats felt they had a chance to pull off an upset. The district wound up being solidly GOP though at the top of the ticket – enough to erase the slight over-performance of Democratic challenger Melissa Martin
- SD22 – This race did not go the way Democrats hoped. No sugar coating it. The district was expected to vote for GOP candidates at the top of the ticket, but internal polls had Democrat Bob Doyel pulling close with Incumbent Kelli Stargel. In the end though, she won by 6. In retrospect, by Tossup ranking was too generous.
- SD23 – Another race were I’d say my ranking was too generous. Late Democratic investment in this election against Joe Gruters gave me an impression of a closer contest. Likely GOP would have been better than the Lean I gave it. Big problem for the Democrats was the Sarasota region didn’t swing to the left as much as many of them were hoping.
- SD24 – This is a district destined to be a high-profile fight when Incumbent Jeff Brandes is termed out. The Senator’s strong campaign style and personal wealth are what have always made beating him a challenge in a district that is pretty divided. Brandes was also aided by the district backing 4/5 Republicans statewide.
- SD25 – This race generated attention in the closing months as the GOP pushed some money into State Rep Gayle Harrell’s campaign and Democrat Scott Levy self-funded 6 figures. The benefit for Harrell was her time as a state rep and the district’s natural GOP lean; despite a swing to the left compared to 2016.
- SD36 – One ranking I got flack from Democrats for was keeping SD36 as Lean GOP and not tossup. I knew the Cuban nature of this seat would allow high ticket splitting to make a Dem win harder. What I didn’t even consider was that the 36th would also vote GOP at the top of the ticket as well (thanks to stronger Cuban GOP turnout in the midterm). This made winning the 36th very unlikely for Democrats and indeed it didn’t happen.
Senate District 18
The top Democratic target was SD18 State Senator Dana Young; who had won her seat in 2016 with 48% of the vote. Democrats succeeded in recruiting House Democratic Leader Janet Cruz, who Represented the central part of the district. The race was a money vacuum and easily the most high profile fight of the cycle. In the end, Cruz narrowly edged out Young by just a few hundred votes.
The district leaned left of the state. The one exception was Moody’s 6 point win in the district. Both she and Shaw hailed from Hillsborough county. Every other democrat outperformed their statewide margin in the seat.
Cruz was only declared the winner after a recount. The pickup gave Democrats 17 seats in the State Senate.
Senate District 8
Perhaps the biggest trajedy for Florida Senate Democrats was the loss in SD8. This seat had originally been a Democratic target in 2016 when the party recruited former Senator and Party Chair Rod Smith. However, Smith wound up losing to then-State Rep Keith Perry. Democrats aimed again at taking out Perry, but lost by a painfully-close 0.9% margin.
Democrats locked up strong support in Alachua County but the combined votes in Marion and Putnam were big boons for Republicans. The district overall backed Democrats, with Gillum winning the district by 4%.
The Republicans knew this would be a major battleground district. They tried to ratfuck the primary to push a more liberal nominee over Kayser Enneking; who was the preferred candidate for the party and Democratic-aligned groups. In addition, an African-American NPA candidate, Charles Goston, was propped up with GOP money. Goston’s committee received almost $130,000 and Goston used his time attacking Enneking. Goston had been a former city council member from Gainesville.
Goston got 2% of the vote, and much of it came from precincts with large black populations.
It is not hard to see Goston costing Enneking a narrow win.
Senate District 16
One of the top Democratic targets was Senate District 16, which was vacant after Senator Jack Latvala’s resignation; though it was going to be open anyway. Republicans nominated Jim Hooper, a former state house member who lost a race for Pinellas County Commission in 2014. Democrats were able to recruit former Pasco House Rep Amanda Murphy; who had lost re-election in 2016. Murphy was considered a strong recruit because despite losing by 1%, she outperformed Hillary Clinton by over 10 points.
Murphy was a strong recuit, but was plagued by weaker fundraising than Hooper. The district also leans right of the state. Murphy was strong enough to keep it a tossup, but in the end she fell short by 4.4%
Murphy over-performed all the statewide Democrats. Fried and Nelson came close to the 5% losses, while Gillum lost the district by 8%. Murphy’s strongest overpeformance was in Pasco, the home to her former house seat. She lost the Pasco region by 6% while Nelson lost it by 10%. Meanwhile, she lost the Pinellas portion by 4% compared to Nelson’s 5%.
Senate District 40
The lone seat Democrats had to somewhat defend was Senate District 40. This seat had been in GOP hands after 2016, but a 2017 special election was won by Democrat Annette Taddeo.
After the win in the very contentious special, it was generally believed the GOP would have a hard time taking the district back. However, the district’s northside is heavily Cuban and it was certainly not a district Democrats could ignore. Taddeo wound up winning re-election with a modest 7% margin.
All five statewide Democrats won the district. Nelson had the strongest margin; winning the seat by 8%.
Comparing the Nelson and Taddeo shares reveal some important voting trends. Nelson, the federal candidate, overall performed better in the Cuban areas. It helped him that, unlike Taddeo, his GOP opponent wasn’t Hispanic. Meanwhile, much of the whiter, non-Cuban Hispanic east end of the district stuck with Taddeo more than they did Nelson.
The SD40 race began and closed out the contentious Democratic defenses.
Looking Toward 2020
The 2020 State Senate elections are going to feature a much smaller map than last cycle. Most seats up for contention are safe for both parties. Only a few opportunities exist for both sides.
For Democrats, the focus will be on SD39 and SD9, both open. The 39th overall backed Democrats, but like many Miami-Dade based districts, it is loves to split tickets. The 9th was GOP this time but close in many races and will be a major testing ground for to see if Seminole continues to trend blue.
Republicans keep trying to claim they have an opportunity in SD3 – which is heavily influenced by Tallahassee and backed Democrats across the board in both 2016 and 2018. The major GOP efforts will probably be in SD37 – where State Senator José Javier Rodríguez won a very contested race in 2016. Like the 39th, the district leans Democratic at the top of the ticket but has split tickets in the past.
How the races for 2020 shake out could also effect the redistricting process. Democrats hope to get as close to 20 seats as possible to have a stronger seat at the table for redistricting; which could prove critical when the map for 2022 is drawn.