Florida’s 2020 Primary Preview

August 18th marks the date of Florida’s state primaries, which include races for: Congress, State Senate, State House, Public Defender and State Attorney, and a litany of local elections. This article aims to break down races across the state. Trust me, some of the most interesting primaries are not the ones for Congress.

Want some of the state senate and state house races I find most interesting? Check out Senate district 3, 5, 27, 29, and 35. House Districts 1, 2, 14, 70, 53, 88, 94, 95, 116, and 120. These are just the top – many more interesting races! Definitely go to the end for the local races of note. Have fun.

Congressional Primaries

In the interest of public information, I’m looking at every primary for Congress, even though some primaries will be for nominations that ultimate are not worth much. I will, however, be more selective for other offices. For a primary on how these district voted in 2016 and 2018, click here.

Congressional District 1 Republican Primary

Matt Gaetz is running for a third term to represent this 67-28 Trump seat. After winning a crowded three way primary (precinct map here) in 2016, Gaetz set himself up as a avid Trump cheerleader on TV. Gaetz faced a three-way primary in 2018; facing off against John Mills and Cris Dosev. Gaetz easily won but lost several suburban precincts around Pensacola.

Gaetz had the weakest primary win of any GOP incumbent, but still easily prevailed. This time, Gaetz faces two Republican primary challengers, neither of whom have raised serious money. His first opponent is Greg Merk, who is based out of Pensacola and lost lost 60-40 a primary for State House District 2 in 2018. His third opponent is John Mills, who took 5% in his 2018 race against Gaetz.

Congressional District 3 Republican Primary

A crazy TEN-WAY-PRIMARY is underway for CD3, a solid-red district located in the heart of Northeast Florida. The seat is being opened up by Rep Ted Yoho, who originally made waves with his shock primary win in 2012 over Congressman Cliff Stearns, see map here. The district lost much of Yoho’s best areas in the 2015 round of redistricting (map); but despite this Yoho has not faced any real primary threats. With his retirement, a massive fight has begun. Lets look at the candidates.

• Kat Cammack is Yoho’s former Deputy Chief of Staff and Campaign manager from 2012 till her campaign. She has raised $470,000.
• James St George is a doctor who has raised $320,000 and loaned an addition $600,000.
• Judson Sapp is a contracting company CEO who raised $230,000 and loaned another $500,000. He also challenged Yoho in 2018 but only got 24%.
• Todd Chase is a former Gainesville City Commissioner who has raised $350,000
• Gavin Rollings is a Clay County commissioner who has raised $130,000 and loaned another $50,000.
• Amy Pope Wells is a businesswoman who has raised $130,000 and loaned and addition $110,000.
• Ryan Chamberlin is a marketing consultant who has raised $150,000.
• Bill Engelbrecht has only raised $17,000 but has loaned his campaign $50,000
• Joe Dallas Millado has raised less than $20,000
• David Theus has raised just $16,000

Recent polls show Cammack with a narrow lead in the polls, and she has been subject to attacks regarding how tight she is with Yoho himself. The Congressman has stayed neutral in the race, but his son is backing Rollings and has claimed Cammack was demoted from Chief of Staff for internal issues. Regardless, Cammack has gotten the endorsement of the Tea Party express and Yoho’s brother. Todd Chase, meanwhile, has come under fire for voting to make Gainesville and sanctuary city and labeling himself a RINO.

Cammack appears to have become the front-runner in the closing of the campaign, but with such a split vote anything can happen.

Congressional District 4 Republican Primary

Two-term Congressman John Rutherford is running for re-election in this Jacksonville-suburb based seat. The seat covers the white portions of Jacksonville not in the majority-black Florida 5th, Nassau, and northern St Johns County. The district as moved a bit to the left but is overall a very Republican area; voting 61-34 for Trump and 61-38 for DeSantis. Rutherford is the previous sheriff of Duval County and has faced little trouble in past primaries or generals. He has one primary opponent, Erick J. Aguilar, has raised little money and isn’t much of a threat. Rutherford should easily win his primary.

Congressional District 5 Democratic Primary

Congressman Al Lawson has held this Tallahassee-to-Jacksonville, African-American district since 2016. While not majority VPA African-American, the district is solidly Democratic and over 65% of its likely primary voters are black. Lawson, a fixture in Tallahassee politics since the 1980s, defeated Jacksonville Rep Corrine Brown in 2016 after the district was radically redrawn to link JAX to Tallahassee instead of Orlando. The largest democratic voting block is in Jacksonville; but stronger unity in the western end of the district has allowed Lawson to hold the seat.

Lawson faced another serious primary challenge in 2018; defeating former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown 60-40. Lawson won despite Duval making up half the vote; but Lawson had better margins in the west.

After two major primary fights, Lawson faces much weaker opposition this go around. Chester Albert, a Jacksonville businessman who went to Tallahassee-based FAMU as a student, is running. Lashonda Holloway, also of Jacksonville, is filed for the seat. While Albert has raised some money ($50K), Holloway has raised little. Neither is likely to have any chance of knocking off the veteran Lawson.

Congressional District 6 Democratic Primary

Two democrats are facing off for the right to take on Republican Congressman Michael Waltz. This district; based around Volusia and Flagler, used to be more Democratic but has drastically trended right-wing since 2008. The district backed backed Trump by 16% in 2016 and didn’t show much left-wing swing in 2018. Lawyer Clint Curtis and adjunct professor Richard Thripp are the Democratic candidates. Neither have raised much money but Thripp has self-funded with a $100,000 loan.

Congressional District 7 Republican Primary

Democrat Stephanie Murphy represents this Seminole and Orange County district; which is moving further to the left of the state as Seminole moves more toward Democrats. Three Republicans are running for to take Murphy on. Businessman Richard Goble has raised $150,000; most of it self-financing. Businessman Yukong Zhao has raised $250,000 and loaned an addition 50K. Radiologist Leo Valentin has raised $300,000 and loaned another $200,000. Whoever wins has a tough climb against Murphy in a district that voted 10 points to the left of the state in 2018.

Congressional District 8 Republican Primary

Congressman Bill Posey has served in CD8; which covers Brevard, Indian River, and part of Orange county, since 2009. Posey gained nationwide ridicule for being the main pusher of the Obama birther conspiracy in Congress. Posey pushed for a law to mandate birth certificates be part of campaign paperwork, but insisted Obama was not his target. Since then Posey has maintained a low-profile time in Congress; winning elections his GOP-heavy district with little issue.

Posey faces his first GOP primary since being elected to Congress. It comes from Retired Air Force Col. Scott Caine. The campaign has largely featured Posey touting his credentials and his direct endorsement from Donald Trump (even wearing a shirt to events touting the endorsement. Caine has attacked Posey for being in office for over 30 years (he was in the state legislature and local office before congress). Caine is also running TV ads accusing Posey of being disloyal to Trump for being the lone GOP co-sponsor of a House resolution that denounced anti-Asian sentiment during the COVID crisis. The resolution specifically called out using phrases like the “China Virus.” Caine’s TV ad defends using the term and says Posey has betrayed Trump. Not making this up. Caine has raised $190,000 compared with Posey’s $725,000.

Congressional District 9 Republican Primary

Four Republicans are vying to take on Democrat Darren Soto in this blue congressional seat based out of Orange, Osceola, and Polk counties. Only William Olson has raised any real money, $200,000, for this race. Jose Castillo, who has taken in $30,000 has won many local GOP event polls and his name may help in this Hispanic-plurality district. While Republicans had interests in the 9th when it was created in 2012 (and adjusted in 2015) – aiming to target the seat with Hispanic Republicans; the interest has since died and general elections are never competitive. Olson likely win the primary and go on to get crushed by Soto in November.

Congressional District 10 Republican Primary

Two Republican, Vennia Francois and Willie J. Montague, are running in the GOP primary for CD10. Francois has somehow managed to raised $200,000. Francois was originally filed for CD7 but switched races. Whoever emerges has no chance against Congresswoman Demings in this solid blue district.

Congressional District 13 Republican Primary

A five-way GOP primary is going on in CD13 for the right to take on two-term incumbent Charlie Crist. Three Republicans of note are running. Amanda Makki is a former lobbysist with strong DC ties. She has raised $1.2 million. Retired Veteran Anna Paulina is not far behind with $1,000,000 raised as well. George Buck, the 2018 nominee and longtime Pinellas conservative has taken in just under $1,000,000 as well. Sharon Newby and Sheila Griffin have both raised around $50,000. Makki has the backing of GOP leader Kevin McCarthy while Paulina has the backing of Matt Gaetz. This race has very much shaken out as a GOP insider vs outsider context between the two. Meanwhile Buck has accused both of being carpetbaggers to the district. Recent polls put Makki in the lead with 28%, 7 points ahead of Paulina. However, that poll was back in early July.

Congressional District 14 Republican Primary

Two Republican, Paul Elliott and Christine Quinn, are running in the GOP primary for CD14. Whoever emerges has no chance against Congresswoman Castor in this solid blue district. Neither have raised any real money.

Congressional District 15 GOP and DEM Primary

Congressman Ross Spano has had a terrible first term in Congress. A former Hillsborough State Rep, he won a contested GOP primary and contested general election in 2018 to win his seat. However, once elected it was revealed that Spano has been loaned up to $180,000 from friends, and then immediately loaned his campaign the money. While loaning your campaign funds is legal, it is NOT legal to use money others gave you. Spano has admitted the loans may have been an issue but has blown it off as a “mistake.”

Spano’s 2018 primary win revealed a very regionally divided district. The seat covers Hillsborough, Polk, and Lake counties. Spano defeated Polk state rep Neil Combee by dominated in Hillsborough and Combee not consolidating enough of Polk.

Spano has been seen as vulnerable since the loan scandal broke. He drew a tough primary challenger in March, when Lakeland Commissioner Scott Franklin filed. Franklin has generated many endorsements; including Polk Sheriff Grady Judd, Lake Sheriff Peyton Grinnell, and Congressman Matt Gaetz. Spano has also gotten endorsements from Marco Rubio, Daniel Webster, Kevin McCarthy and a slew of other incumbents.

Spano’s loan scandal has been a major point of attacks from Franklin directly and PACs. Matt Gaetz, who called Spano a weak candidate (indeed Republicans would prefer Spano lose) and recorded an anti-Spano robocall for a PAC. Spano, meanwhile, is running ads that try to imply a Trump endorsement that doesn’t exist by using selective audio from a Trump rally. Franklin has raised $230,000 and loaned his campaign another $350,000. Spano has managed to raised just over $900,000. The most recent poll of the district has both candidates nearly tied, but gives Franklin a 5-point lead with voters who already cast ballots.

On the Democratic side, three candidates are facing off for the seat. Adam Hattersley, who flipped HD59 (Spano’s old house seat) to the Democrats in 2018, has opted to run for Congress instead of re-election. He has been in a nasty primary with TV reporter Alan Cohn, who ran and lost a race for the 15th district in 2014 (under different lines). Cohn has attacked Hattersley as a more moderate Democrat, attacking his campaign positions and investments. However, Hattersley voting record reflects a largely standard democratic history. Hattersley has raised $630,000 compared to Cohn’s $580,000. A third candidate, veteran Jesse Philippe, has raised $20,000. Both candidates are no doubt hoping Spano wins his primary, as he would be much more beatable in this lean-GOP district.

Congressional District 18 GOP and DEM Primary

Two-term Republican Brian Mast is facing a Republican primary for his right by Nick Vessio. Mast is largely a conservative vote but has endorsed assault weapon limitations and pushed stronger water regulations in his role representing coastal areas that have been effected by farming runoff. Vessio strikes a more conservative tone, defending the Sugar industry (who’s farming practices contribute to algae blooms) while giving more modest critiques. Environmental groups are backing Mast. Vessio has raised $100,000 while Mast has taken in $3.5 million.

The democratic primary features two-time candidate Pam Keith against newcomer Oz Vazquez. Keith was a 2016 US Senate campaign and lost a 2018 primary for CD18 with 40%. Keith is running from a more liberal wing of the the party while Vezquez is running as a moderate in the liking of former Congressman Patrick Murphy. Keith has raised just under $300,000 Vazquez’s $450,000.

Congressional District 19 GOP Primary

GOP Congressman Francis Rooney has opted to retire from this deep-red district that covers most of Lee County and coastal Collier. This is one of the reddest Congressional Districts in Florida; filled with retirees and wealthy suburbanites. Nine Republicans have filed for this seat and millions are pouring into the district. Two candidates are state lawmakers: Dana Eagle of Cape Coral, and Byron Donalds of Naples.

This is a breakdown of the candidates

• Byron Donalds is the current HD80 State Representative. He his district represents little of CD19 but he has a great deal of PAC money backing him and has raised over $1,000,000. If elected, he’d be the lone African-American Republican in the Florida Congressional delegation.
• Dana Eagle is the current HD72 State Representative. Eagle has racked up large numbers of local endorsements and has raised over $750,000.
• Casey Askar is a businessman who has shot up to be a top contender in the race. Askar has loaned his campaign $3,000,000 and overall has taken in $3.7 million for this race. Askar’s family fled religious persecution in Iraq when he was 7 and has touted his story in the campaign. One of his opponents, Darren Aquino, drew condemnation for insisting Askar shouldn’t run and only natural-born citizens should run for Congress. Askar has been subject to questions about his business and military history, but so far accusations of inflating his resume don’t seem to hold water. However, the questions may have done damage.
• William Figlesthaler is a Naples Doctor who has generated a good deal of support in this race as well; no doubt boosted by his $2.7 million dollar campaign; largely financed by loans.
• Dan Severson, a former state lawmaker from Minnessota is also in the race, taking in $120,000.
• Randy Henderson, a Lee County Republican has raised over $260,000.
• Daniel Kowal, a Collier Sheriff’s deputy, has raised $50,000
• Christy McLaughlin, of the Ava Maria community (Collier) student has raised $20,000
• Darren Aquino, the racist who attacked Askar for his immigration history, has raised $75,000.

The race has been a nasty affair for many candidates. Askar and Donalds have been engaged in a war of media spots in recent weeks. The Club for Growth (backing Donalds) has called Askar a “Mitt Romney Republican” while Askar has accused Donalds of supporting Obama. Lee County Republican voters have been swamped with a slew of negative mailers as the bitter CD19 and bitter SD29 (more on that later) primaries play out. The most recent polls show a four way fight between Donalds, Askar, Eagle and Figlesthaler and recently PACS backing Donalds have attacked those three specifically. Donalds appears to have the most outside money support and a narrow lead in polls. However, with such a split vote and mud being thrown many ways, this will be a race to watch on primary night.

Congressional District 20 Democratic Primary

Congressman Alcee Hastings faces Democratic primary from Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick; who he beat in similar 2018 primary. Hastings has been a long popular figure in this Broward and Palm Beach based majority African-American district and routinely takes over 70%. McCormick has only taken in $20,000 and the campaign is fairly muted. Expect Hastings to easily hold on.

Congressional District 21 GOP and DEM Primaries

Democratic Incumbent Lois Frankel, an institution in Palm Beach politics, has one primary challenger this cycle; from 30 year old Guido Weiss. At 30, Weiss has an impressive academic and political resume; working for both Congresspeople Brad Sherman and Tulsi Gabbard. However, there is little expectation Frankel won’t easily win. Weiss has raised $19,000 to Frankel’s $800,000.

The real story here is the GOP primary, where conspiracy theorist and bigot Laura Loomer is running. Loomer got attention when she was banned from twitter and subsequently handcuffed herself to their NYC office. She is the money leader in the primary, as she has raised $1,000,000. The second most is Reba Sherrill, an anti-VAX crusader who self-funded $350,000. The Four other candidates have raised little money, with Christian Acosta getting the Sun Sentinel endorsement. No matter the winner, the seat is safe for Democrats. The real question is the GOP will be embarrassed with Loomer has their nominee.

Congressional District 22 Republican Primary

Four Republicans are vying to take on Democrat Ted Deutch in this blue congressional seat based out of Palm Beach and Broward County. This solid-blue seat has generated more GOP money than is reasonable. Fran Flynn, Jessica Melton, and James Pruden have all raised between $150,000 and $185,000. Darlene Swaffar hasn’t cracked $20,000.

Congressional District 23 Democratic Primary

In 2016, then-DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz faced a left-wing primary challenge against Tim Canova. Despite a mountain of bad press for DWS for her tenure and resignation as DNC Chair, she managed to hold on by a 13 point margin.

Since then, Canavo has descended into a world of conspiracy and insanity. But a fresh challenger has emerged in 2020, Jennifer Perelman. So far, Perelman has raised a respected $200,000+ and is backed by left-wing groups like Our Revolution. Of course, DWS has shown to be resilient in the district; which she has represent for eight terms Congress and before that in the legislature. She’s also notorious for her outreach to her constituents – something that likely saved her in 2016. This is a race worth watching, but I’d expect DWS to hold on.

Congressional District 24 Democratic Primary

Five-term Congresswoman Fredricka Wilson will easily win re-nomination against two primary challengers. Newcomer Sakinah Lee Lehtola and perennial candidate Ricardo De La Fuente (son of the other perennial candidate) are Wilson’s only challengers, and neither have raised much money.

Congressional District 26 Republican Primary

Two Republicans are facing off for the right to take on Democratic Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Firefighter Lt Omar Blanco is running a long-shot primary against Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez; who is finishing up is second term. Blanco had raised a decent $170,000, but it pails compared to Gimenez’s $1,000,000 and change. The mayor has GOP and Trump backing, despite Gimenez not backing the Trump in the 2016 election. Gimenez’s has been in the non-partisan Mayoral office for most of the decade and has worked to ingratiate himself to the more steadfast GOP voters (who granted are less Trump fanatic in Dade than elsewhere). Blanco, who says he backs Trump, obviously hopes to take advantage of this uneasy step of Gimenez into the Trump orbit (though Blanco himself doesn’t talk like die-hard Trumper). Blanco, during his time over the firefights unions, also got into a political battle with FL House Speaker Jose Oliva (a Dade representative) over getting increased coverage for cancers. In addition, Blanco has sued to know Gimenez off the ballot, arguing the filing fee was messed up with a misspelling and using the wrong account to pay the fee. The Gimenez campaign has dismissed the validity of the suit and produced documents that seem to absolve them. Gimenez has also had to spend much of the last several months dealing with the COVID pandemic and Miami-Dade’s infection rates and subsequent lock-downs. The county has recently re-ordered curfews and the country is threatening fines for not adhering to different mask and distances orders. As right-wing oppositions to these measures grow, it could in theory pose a problem for Gimenez.

Overall, Gimenez should still be favored to take the primary. However, we shouldn’t rule anything out. This is certainly a primary I will be watching.

Congressional District 27 Republican Primary

The 27th district is expected to be a 2018 rematch between Democratic Congresswoman Donna Shalala and Republican Maria Salazar. There are technically three Republicans running for the nomination, but neither Juan Fiol or Frank Polo have raised serious money. Salazar, a former TV news broadcaster, won a contested 2018 primary against County Commissioner Bruno Barrerio. She has already raised well over $1.5 million and should have little trouble in the GOP primary.

State Attorney & Public Defender

A few notable primaries for state attorney and public defender stand out this year. This circuits are made up of single or multiple counties.

Circuit 2 Public Defenders – Democratic Primary

Florida’s 2nd judicial circuit covers Leon, Gadsden, Jefferson, Wakulla, Liberty, and Franklin counties. Its democratic primary will be open to all voters, as no candidate qualified for the general. Incumbent Andy Thomas, who won the open post in 2016 without opposition, faces a well-funded challenger in Jessica Yeary; a former staffer in his office. Issue is the campaign have largely been a clash in styles. Both are advocates for criminal justice reform. Yeary argues more should be proactively done from the PD’s office; while Thomas argues the underfunded and understaffed office does all it can to be advocates and serve clients. Thomas has raised just under $50,000 while Yeary has already topped $120,000.

Circuit 9 State Attorney – Democratic Primary

Aramis Ayala was elected State Attorney for Circuit 9 (Orange and Osceola counties) in 2016. She established herself as a liberal reformer and drew headlines for announcing she wouldn’t seek the death penalty. As a result, then Governor Scott took capital cases away from her (with the state court backing him up) and arguing that such discretion did not exist. After four years of attacks, Ayala opted not to run again. Monique Worrell, a defense attorney, has the backing of Ayala in a 4-way democratic primary. She faces prosecutor Ryan Williams, current chief assistant state attorney Deborah Barra, and former Circuit Judge Belvin Perry Jr. A good breakdown on all the candidates is here. Overall, Worrell is the most liberal candidate running and the one aiming to carry on Ayala’s legacy.

Circuit 11 State Attorney – Democratic Primary

Miami-Dade State Attorney Katherine Fernandez Rundle has been in office since she replaced Janet Reno in the 1990s. In those years she has generated a good deal of ill-will among democrats thanks to several controversial decisions to not charge officers in cases of clear police brutality. The result has been a primary challenge from ACLU activist Melba V. Pearson. Rundle has even faced calls to step down from her own parties Democratic Committee after she refused to prosecute four guards who essentially burned a man alive with scalding water in a prison shower. Despite all this, Rundle may hang on. Rundle has raised over $600,000 for her re-election while Pearson has taken in over $200,000. In addition, the primary is open to all voters; including Republicans, thanks to no one filing for the general.

Circuit 17 State Attorney – Democratic Primary

Broward State Attorney Mike Satz has been in office for 44 years and is finally retiring. Satz, a “tough on crime” prosecutor who has drawn the ire of reformers, almost lost a democratic primary in 2016; only winning due to the race being open to Republicans as well. One of Satz’s biggest critics has been Broward’s elected Public Defender Howard Finkelstein; who laid out his issues with Satz in 2017.This primary will be closed just to democrats and features eight democrats running. I’m gonna talk about them from left wing to right wing (as best I can tell.)

• Joe Kimok, a defense attorney, is considered the most liberal candidate running. He’s raised $60,000 and has support from George Soros, Dream Defenders, and several other liberal groups. Outside help is what could give him a shot.
• Harold Fernandez Pryor, an Assistant State Attorney and current defense attorney, who is African-American, has a good deal of support in central Broward and endorsements from Alcee Hastings, Sean Shaw, and Perry Thurston. He’s raised $130,000.
• Joshua Rydell is a Coconut Creek commissioner and former public defender. He has lots of backing from elected officials and leads fundraising with over $300,000.
• Teresa Fanning-Williams, who challenge Satz in 2018, has raised $40,000 and loaned another $50,000.
• Justin McCormack has raised $70,000.
• David Cannady has raised $24,000 and loaned another $20,000.
• James Lewis hasn’t cracked $20,000.
• Sarahnell Murphy works in Satz’s office and has his backing. She’s raised $110,000 and loaned an additional $50,000.

By most account the left lane seems to be a battle between Kimok and Pryor, with Rydell and Williams in the liberal-but-little-less so camp. Progressive groups want to make sure Murphy does not win and she is being attacked in ACLU mailers. Whoever wins is likely to do so with a sliver of the vote.

State Senate Primaries

Several State Senate primaries of note are taking place. For a primer on how these district voted in 2018; click here.

District 3 – GOP Primary (District Map)

Senate District 3 is located in the heart of the Florida panhandle and is the largest district in the state. While it includes 9 conservative rural counties, the overwhelming share of the votes come from Democratic-heavy Gadsden and Leon (home to capital-city Tallahassee). Even in a GOP primary, over half the vote comes from Leon County, heavily concentrated in the Tallahassee suburbs. As a result, the seat backs Democrats by double digits. Democrat Bill Montford has held the seat for 10 years and now State Rep Loranne Ausley is the only Democrat to run for the seat. Two Republicans have filed for the seat, and despite the blue lean, the GOP is investing heavily in the primary. The state GOP has directed tens of thousands of dollars to Marva Harris Preston; a retired police officer who resides in Wakulla County. While the GOP has said they believe they can win the seat, the reality is they want to make sure Preston’s challenger, Benjamin Alexander Thaddeus John Horbowy, does not win. Horbowy is a hard-right conservative who’s facebook is filled with incendiary language and white nationalist rhetoric. He has raised less than $5,000 dollars. While Horbowy may have generated support in rural counties, COVID has limited person-to-person campaigns. The FL GOP is aiming to avoid an embarrassing nominee, and as such is throwing money at a race they in the end know they won’t win in November. They will likely get their wish.

District 5 – GOP Primary (District Map)

Incumbent Rob Bradley is termed out from this deep red district that covers 11 counties in Northeast Florida. Originally this would have featured a huge field of Republicans vying for the seat. However, Jennifer Bradley, Rob’s wife, has filed for the seat. The GOP establishment quickly backed J Bradley and she has amassed $500,000 for her bid. All prominent state Representatives backed off a challenge. Her lone challenger is Jason Holifield, who served as Dixie County commissioner till 2018. Holified has raised less than $20,000, but has self-funded $80,000. He is running as a anti-establishment conservative and making an issue of Jennifer being the wife of the outgoing Senator. His yard signs flat out say his opponent is the wife of the termed-out Senator; playing up a trope that she wouldn’t be her own person. During a interview, he said “He’s termed out. He’s not allowed to run … why would we send his wife to Tallahassee to make laws?”” While the issue around the FL GOP playing favorites is a legit issue; Holified is taking it too far. In the end, Bradley should be favored thanks to money, name, and coming from vote-heavy Clay County.

District 9 – Democratic Primary

SD9, which covers all of Seminole and part of Volusia County is going to be a major battleground in November. It and SD39 are the two seats democrats are aiming to take; which would bring them to 19 seats out of 40. The path to a 20th seat probably doesn’t exist this cycle. Democrats recruited labor lawyer Patricia Sigman to run for the seat. She has raised over $200,000 already. She does have four primary opponents, but most have raised little money (with Alexis Carter coming in second with $30,000). However, the real story here has been GOP-backed dark-money groups running ads in the primary attacking Sigman as if they are a left-leaning group. The committee appears to have been breaking campaign finance laws to hide its donors and after Democrats filed a complaint, the committee shut down. The drama aside, all except Sigman to easily win the primary on Tuesday.

District 27 – Republican Primary

Based in Lee County, SD27 is a solid red district that is being vacated by term-out Senator Lizbeth Benacquisto. State Rep Ray Rodrigues was the FL GOP’s preferred candidate running for the seat and he has raised $500,000. Then at the last minute, State Rep Heather Fitzenhagen abandoned her Congressional 19 campaign to run for SD27 instead; setting up a primary between two state reps.

Her entry was met with hostility by the Florida GOP, who didn’t want a contentious primary distracting donors from other races. This race has been especially nasty. Fitzenhagen has attacked Rodrigues for his environmental record and accused him of being too close to US Sugar; labeling him “Sugar Ray.” A political committee funded by Everglades groups is spending over $500,000 against Rodrigues. While most of the FL GOP is heavily backing Rodrigues, Fitzenhagen does have the backing of CD18 Congressman Brian Mast. The Florida Senate GOP Committee has actually run ads against Fitzenhagen, claiming she “Planned Parenthood’s Favorite Politician” – a reference to her vote against the parental consent law Florida recently passed.

The race got even nastier when it was revealed Democrats tried to get the lone Democratic candidate running to drop out of the race. The reasoning was that it would open up the primary to all voters (per Florida law) and allow Democrats to back the more moderate Fitzenhagen. This angered the GOP, who demanded she fire staff who attacked incoming Senate GOP leader Wilton Simpson and pledge support to the party. It also angered Democratic activists who (incorrectly) think having a candidate in bright-red Lee county helps in any way.

Polls originally showed Fitzenhagen with a lead; granted with large undecideds, but polls lately have shown Rodriguez with a large lead. How these opinions have shifted; as absentee voting goes on, remains to be seen. It does seem Rodriguez has the advantage going into the home stretch.

District 29 – Democratic Primary

In May of this year, SD29 Kevin Rader decided not to run for re-election, This set up a sudden primary for this solidly Democratic seat based in South Palm Beach and North Broward. The seat includes a combination of SW Palm Suburbs and retirement communities, North Broward suburbs (including Parkland), and the migrant farm communities at the base of Lake Okeechobee. The democratic establishment quickly circled around HD81 State Rep Tina Polskey; a solid left-wing Democratic voice in the house. She has already raised $290,000 for the run. Her lone Democratic opponent is former HD91 State Rep Irv Slosberg. Irv has been in and out of the Florida House since 2002 and originally entered politics as an advocate for driver safety; a response to the tragic death of his daughter Doris in an accident. Irv is a millionaire who has no issue self-funding his races. He ran for State Senate in 2006 and 2016; spending millions but failing to claim either seat. Irv’s campaign style includes big food events and giveaways. However, Irv can be a very abrasiveness person and he has rubbed people the wrong way over the decades. He spent over $1,500,000 in his 2016 run against Jeff Clemens and easily lost. This campaign featured a Irv brining out a Trump impersonator and “Pinocchio Polsky” that kinda leaves me at a loss for words. This go around he has self-funded $1,500,000 to his run. Both candidates agree on most issues; though Polksy has attacked Irv’s past record on gun restrictions as being too lose; something Irv denies. Irv has pointed out Polskey’s support from US Sugar.

How the Senate district compares with HD81 and HD91 is seen below.

In his 2016 primary for SD31, Irv did best in the portions around his house seat. He will likely perform best in the HD91 (where his daughter Emily is now a state rep) portion while Polsky is strongest further west.

District 33 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

Incumbent Perry Thurston, the next Senate Democrats leader, has three no-name challengers in his primary for re-election in this majority-black district located in North Broward County. Thurston’s only headache has come from a GOP-funded political committee that is working to undermine him in the primary by claiming he’s a conservative. The goal here is to weaken Thurston and force donor money to back him up – thus diverting it from Democratic efforts to flip SD9 and SD39. In the end Thurston should have no problem winning; despite the ratfucking by the FL GOP.

District 35 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

A crowded field has emerged for SD35, a majority black seat located in South Broward and North Miami-Dade. The district’s African-American base is also divided between non-Caribbean and Caribbean (especially Haitian) voters. Six Democrats are running, with five being known names. All five have notable geographic bases in the district.

• Shevrin Jones – The Broward HD101 state rep is the money front-runner and preferred choice for Florida Democratic insiders. He is a solid liberal voice in the legislature and came out as the first openly gay black man in the Florida legislature. He has made national headlines for issues from assault weapons to police reform; and recently documented his own battle with COVID. He has raised over $930,000 through his main account and a political committee
• Daphne Campbell – A notorious figure in Miami-Dade politics. Campbell’s political career has been filed with controversy, from campaign finance violations, residency issues, and a much more conservative voting record. Campbell, who is Haitian, orignally won the Haitian-heavy HD108, then won a splintered primary for the neighboring SD38 in 2016. She lost re-nomination in 2018, however, when only facing one opponent. The FL GOP directed money to her 2016 run, eager to have a more socially conservative voice in the Democratic caucus. This time, there appears to be less intervention. Campbell has only raised $30K, but she has millions in name recognition. While many roll their eyes at her, she does have a loyal base with many Haitian voters.
• Erhabor Ighodaro – A city councilman for Miami Gardens, which sits in the heart of the district. Ighodaro is a Nigerian immigrant who has many elections under his belt in the area. Ighodaro appears to be Jones’ biggest critic, attacking the State Rep for his CNN appearances (which he refers to as “white media”). He was called out for homophobic attacks during the campaign and is clearly aiming for the cultural conservative vote that Campbell also aims for. Ighodaro has raised a solid $100,000 dollars and should not be counted out in this race. How strongly he dominates Miami Gardens may be a big factor; though the Mayor of the City is actually endorsing Jones.
• Cynthia Ann Stafford – The former HD109 representative, has been running for awhile in this district. However, Stafford has raised little money; just $25,000. He campaign hasn’t had many controversies and her name ID in the south end of the district could propel her in a split vote.
• Barbara Watson – the outgoing African-American Rep for HD108, entered at the last minute for this seat. She has only raised $20,000 but insists she is on the ground building up support. Watson was involved in a few contentious primaries that pitted her vs Haitian challengers; so she has name ID in her region. Like Stafford, you cannot count her out in a split field.

Much like the 2016 primary for SD38 (see the map here) – this could feature a very split result. Progressives, Democratic officials, and gay-rights leaders are all hoping for a Jones win. However, with a large block of more socially conservative voters, this is no lock. Just in the last week, Jones has been subject to an attack as text messages went out to voters pointing out Jones was denied donating blood because he is gay. The goal of the text (see image in the link above) is to remind the socially-conservative voters in the district that Jones is gay; hoping it hurts him. Another phone-related dirty trick took place in the last few days when a robo-call claimed Campbell has the backing of Barack Obama, which of course she doesn’t.

District 39 – Democratic Primary (District Maps)

Senate District 39 is a majority-Hispanic district based in South Dade and the Florida Keys. Republican Anitere Flores is termed out and this is likely the Democrats’ best chance to gain a state senate seat in 2020. Republicans cleared the field for State Rep Ana Maria Rodriguez. Democrats, meanwhile, have two candidates vying in a primary. The overwhelming favorite is State Rep Javier E. Fernandez, who faces off against Daniel Horton-Diaz, who lost a race for HD120 in 2018. Horton-Diaz has made residency an issue; citing that Fernandez doesn’t live in the district (something not required until the election itself – and he grew up in the district). However, Horton Diaz has only managed to raise $20,000 for his run. Fernandez, who was elected in a contentious special election in 2018 for a seat right by the senate borders, has directly raised nearly $300,000; and that’s not including committees and party backing.

State House Primaries

This section will focus on primaries of note for the state house. Note that this will only focus on primaries where the parties winner has a chance at taking the seat in the fall. No coverage of primaries to be a sacrificial lamb. In addition, random primaries of incumbents from folks who paid a filing fee and did nothing else for months won’t be covered. To see how these districts voted in 2018, click here.

State House 1 – Republican Primary (District Map)

State Rep Mike Hill has been in and out of the Florida legislature since he won a special election for HD2 in 2013. Hill left his seat to run for State Senate in 2016, but lost to Doug Bloxom in the GOP primary. The ultra-conservative and bombastic Hill was a thorn in the side of the FL GOP leadership and they worked against him in that 2016 primary. In 2018, he opted to run for the open HD1, and GOP groups flushed Rebekah Bydlak with support and money. Hill pulled off an upset with in a campaign filled with dirty tricks, sexist attacks, and fake Trump endorsements. Hill continued to be a problem for the GOP and drew nationwide condemnation for chuckling while a constituent asking about proposing legislation to kill gay people like in several third-world nations. Not only did Hill chuckle at the proposal, but he even agreed with the constituent about Bible verses implying the death penalty for homosexuality. The scandal resulted in condemnation from the GOP and Speaker Oliva removed Hill from top committees. However, Hill was not kicked out of the caucus.

Republican power players have been backing primary challenger Michelle Salzman; who filed shortly after Hill’s anti-gay attacks. Salzman is a former PTA President and community activist. Both her and Hill have raised around $80,000. Hill has used shady (and smart) campaign tactics in this primary again. His latest move was to run a mailer saying “one of his opponents” backed Pelosi and wants to defund the police. He claims the opponent is one of the democrats running. Of course voters will assume this is a reference to Salzman, and she is of course livid about this action. Hill has also attacked Salzman for the time she was an adult dancer in the early 2000s. Salzman addressed her past in 2018; pointing out she had two kids, no job, and needed to keep a roof over their heads. She said the job allowed her to provide for her kids and pay for her education.

Hill slipped through a contentious primary in 2018; though its possible the anti-gay attacks (way over the top even for a GOP primary) and Hill’s ineffectiveness in the legislature could finally cost him. However, as 2018 showed, Hill knows how to win a primary.

State House 2 – Republican Primary (District Map)

HD2 has been the site of an especially nasty GOP primary. Incumbent Alex Andrade was elected in 2018 but is facing a primary challenger from Cris Dosev; who challenged Matt Gaetz in the 2016 and 2018 primaries for Congressional District 1. Dosev lost those races, but his biggest base was the Pensacola coastal suburbs. In HD2, he got a solid 42%; pretty strong against the Incumbent Gaetz.

Dosev is well behind Andrade in money; $200,000+ vs $70,000 (mostly loans). However, Dosev has name ID from his congressional runs and his going hard negative on Andrade from his right. Dosev has used anti-transgender fear mongering to claim Andrade isn’t conservative enough and aligned himself with Mike Hill when it comes to hard-line anti-abortion legislation.

State House 4 – Republican Primary (District Map)

An expensive four-way battle is going on for the open HD4; based in the south half of Okaloosa County. Okaloosa GOP Chair Jeff Hinkle is the money-leader for the seat, raising $51,000 and self-funding another $240,000. Patt Maney, a retired county judge, has raised $200,000. Jonathan Tallman, a financial advisor, has raised $90,000. GOP committeewoman Sandra Atkinson is far back with $15,000. The race has featured the standard campaigns of being the most pro-Trump. Hinkle has worked to label his opponents as Never Trumpers, but recently touted an endorsement of a group that it turns out have anti-Trump sympathies. Oops. A recent poll gave Maney a 35-25 lead over Hinkle. Whoever wins this seat will be a lock in November.

State House 9 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

Former Florida Democratic Party Chair Allison Tant is a lock to win this primary for the open HD9; which covers suburban Tallahassee and the FSU campus. Tant has raised over $300,000 for her first political run. She must get through Arnitta Jane Grice-Walker, who has twice run for the seat with little success, in the Democratic primary. Walker has only raised $4,000.

State House 13 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

HD13 is a majority African-American district located in the heart of downtown Jacksonville. Incumbent Tracie Davis has raised $100,000. Cynthia Smith, who lost a race for Duval School board, has raised $20,000. Smith is backed by HD14 Rep Kim Daniels, who herself is locked in a tough primary fight (see more below). Davis and Daniels are both expected to seek Duval’s state senate seat when it opens up. They also hate each-other.

State House 14 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

A big democratic primary is underway for this majority-black district located in north Jacksonville. While I have my preferences, I want this preview to be as neutral as I can. That said, Incumbent Democratic Rep Kim Daniels is the worst democrat in Florida. In 2018, I wrote the article linked, pointing out that Kim Daniels is certifiably insane, a charlatan who uses religion to make money, and has a conservative voting record the GOP loves to exploit. Read the article, but a summary of her issues include: claiming to prefer exorcisms, constant ethics issues related to money, thanking god for slavery, anti-Semitic tropes, and anti-gay rights.

I lamented that despite all this, liberal groups were not focusing on defeating her while GOP interests poured money to back her. Daniels won her primary, boosted by GOP voters who could cast ballots due to no Republican filing for November.

After two more years of Daniels’ nonsense, however, Florida Democrats appear to have had enough. Democratic officials and electeds have put their backing behind Angie Nixon, who has raised $115,000. Daniels has struck a defiant tone during the whole ordeal, which especially blew up as Daniels was a big backer of the GOP’s bill to require parental consent for minor’s seeking an abortion. Daniels has received backing and money from conservative groups and incumbent GOP politicians; allowing Daniels’ to raised $120,000; over $50,000 of that being her own money. She has claimed to be a “blue dog” democrat – but even the Blue Dog caucus rejected this; calling it nonsense. Unlike 2018, this primary is closed to just Democrats. Hopefully Daniels will finally go down.

State House 20 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

HD20 is a plurality African-American seat that consolidates that black communities of Gainesville and Ocala. The seat open race features two Gainesville political veterans, both African-American, vying for the seat. Former City Commissioner Yvonne Hayes Hinson has raised $23,000 and former County Commissioner Rodney Long has raised around $25,000. Both are running on issues of poverty and housing. Hinson was the Democratic nominee for Congressional District 3 in 2018; winning the primary but losing the general. No other candidates filed for the seat; meaning Republicans will get to vote in this race and the winner is elected. One thing to watch for is if Hinson takes the brunt of GOP anger after being the Dem nominee for the Congressional Seat.

State House 22 – Republican Primary

HD22, which covers Levy County and part of Western Marion, is a solidly Republican and largely rural district. Two Republicans, both newcomers are vying for this seat. Originally former State Rep Kurt Kelly was the front-runner, but he opted out of the race to focus on other ventures. Russ Randall has raised over $100,000 while Joe Harding has taken in $150,000. Both are running as generic conservatives.

State House 26 – Democratic Primary

In 2018, HD26 Democratic State Rep Patrick Henry narrowly lost re-election in this Volusia-based house seat. He lost despite Andrew Gillum winning the district by 4%. Henry faced criticism for not campaigning aggressively enough. After the narrow loss, Henry has opted to try and regain his seat. He has raised $50,000 so far, and leads his primary rival, pastor and NAACP activist Evans Smith, who has only raised $50,000. The winner will face incumbent Elizabeth Fetterhoff.

State House 27 – Republican Primary (District Map)

Three Republicans are vying to replace Republican David Santiago in HD27, a modest GOP district located in south Volusia County. Former Deltona Commissioner Webster Barnaby is the money leader with $130,000 raised and leads by double digits in polls; but with a large share of voters undecided. Delray City Commissioner Erika Benfield has raised $50,000 and loaned $25,000 as well. She and Barnaby have been in a heated negative campaign. Former Deltona Commissioner Zenaida Denizac has stayed out of the negative fray and raised $22,000. All three hail from inland cities; leaving the coastal communities very much up for grabs.

State House 28 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

HD28 will be the site of a major general election fight. The east-Seminole County district voted for Bill Nelson and Ron DeSantis by just 0.2% margins and newly-elected Republican David Smith won by 2%. 2018 Democratic nominee Lee Mangold is running again and has raised $40,000. Newcomer Pasha Baker is also running and has raised a decent $35,000 in the race. Whoever wins will go on to a contentious general election against Smith.

State House 31 – Republican Primary (District Map)

Republican Incumbent Jennifer Sullivan opted not to run for a fourth term and a GOP primary is underway for this solid-red district that covers a sliver of northern Orange County and all of NE Lake County. Farmer and businessman Keith Truenow is the money leader with $120,000 raised. Agribusiness consultant Stevan Novakovic is the only other Republican; raising just $15,000. Both have focused on agriculture issues and the winner will be a lock for the general election.

State House 42 – Republican Primary (District Map)

Here’s a crazy story. A four-way GOP primary has suddenly gotten alot more interesting since late July. HD42, which covers southern and eastern Osceola and parts of southwest Polk, has been Represented by Republican Mike La Rosa since 2012. Rosa is now term limited out and Democrats have eyes on the seat; which has been modestly but steadily Republican; voting for DeSantis by 4%. The district includes the more GOP-friendly portions of the otherwise blue Osceola County and the lone GOP commissioner for the county, Fred Hawkins, is running. Hawkins amassed over $200,000 and none of his primary rivals got past $5,000. However, Hawkins was recently arrested for impersonating a Sheriff’s officer to try and get into a homeowners association meeting. He was then suspended from his county commission position by Governor DeSantis, but pledges to stay in the race. Hawkins says the charges are political and vows to be vindicated. He should be favored to win the primary anyway (especially has absentee balloting has continued this whole time) since none of his opponents have the money to capitalize. But worth watching to see how his vote share shifts from absentee, to early, to election day.

State House 43 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

HD43 is a deep-blue, majority-Hispanic district covering Kissimmee and parts of western Osceola County. Incumbent Democrat John Cortes has opted to run for Osceola Clerk and six democrats are vying for the seat. Former House Dems and now-Congressman Derron Soto staffer Alex Barrio is the money leader with $55,000 raised. Kristen Arrington, who owns a marketing firm, is second in funds with $37,000. Tamika Lyles, a teacher and democratic activists, sits at $22,000. Andrew Jeng, a former Kissimmee city commissioner candidate, has raised $15,000. Former State Rep Ricardo Rangel (who lost to Cortes in a 2014 primary) has raised $10,000. Carlos L. Irizarry, a former Kissimmee commissioner, has raised $3,000.

Despite being a safe Democratic seat this race has not generated major primary drama. Barrio has the money and institutional backing lead. Rangel lost a rematch with Cortes in 2016 and lost a 2018 State Senate primary. However, in a split race you cannot count out name ID.

State House 44 – Republican Primary (District Map)

HD44 covers SW Orange County’s suburbs and Disney World! The seat, like many suburban areas, took a swing to the Democrats in the last few years. After flipping from Romney to Clinton, all five statewide Democrats won the district in 2018. After a bizarre special election in 2017 saw the GOP hold the seat, Democrats came right back and won it in November of 2018. Democratic Incumbent Geraldine F. Thompson, a former state senator, has a primary of her own but is expected to easily beat her underfunded challenger. Two Republicans; Frank Edel Blanco and Bruno Portigliatti are running for the nomination. Portigliatti leads in money with over $100,000 compared to Blanco’s $10,000. He also ran in the 2017 special, but came in 3rd with 18%.

State House 48 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

In May, two-term Democrat Amy Mercado decided to forgo re-election to this deep-blue, majority Hispanic house seat in order to run for Orange County Property Appraiser. This has set off a quick-to-form 5-way primary. Samuel Vilchez Santiago has raised $50,000. Julio L. Rocha has raised $35,000. Daisy Morales has raised $10,000. Nelson Pena has raised $13,000. Tony Tsonis has raised $10,000. The race has seen Santiago secure more liberal backers while Rocha is preferred by more moderates.

The Democratic nominee will be a lock to win in November.

State House 52 – Republican Primary (District Map)

Located in central Brevard County, HD52 is a solid GOP district represented by former State Senator Thad Atman. This race is a rematch of a 2018 primary. Altman is a standard Republican, but has bucked leadership on occasion. He won a multi-way primary in 2016 by a weaker-than-expected margin and only won his 2018 primary 55-45 against Matt Nye. Nye is challenging Atman again. While Nye has only raised $15,000, Altman has only taken in under $40,000. The race is a fight between Nye’s arch-conservative views and Altman’s 17 years in the legislature (as a house member, senator, and then house member again). Nye has also recently jumped on the anti-face mask bandwagon amid the COVID crisis.

State House 53 – Republican Primary (District Map)

Incumbent Republican Randy Fine sits in the solid-red house seat that covers the southern end of Brevard County. He faces a primary from Marcelle Adkins and this may be the most nasty primary in the entire state. Randy Fine is a conservative and at many times, abrasive, figure. Fine, who is Jewish, has made it a point to stand up against white nationalism in radio, but also is very right-wing on Israeli issues; to the point where he leveled a nasty insult at a fellow Jewish constituent that I will not post but link to the news story.

In many ways, the primary between Fine and Adkins is really a primary between Fine and a consultant named Robert Burns. The origin of the animosity is a bit disputed but I encourage you to read the details in the link. Burns has appeared to wage a proxy war against Fine, using anti-Semitic tropes along the way; including insinuating Fine and the only Jewish Brevard commissioner were “love bugs.” The facebook page that pushes lots of these attacks, Randy Fine is not so Fine, has recently posted conspiracies claiming that Fine’s recent COVID infection (which required him to stay at a hospital for a few days) was fake. When she filed, Adkins said the voters of her district deserved a “good Christian” in the seat! When anti-Semitic attacks against Fine were tagged on Adkin’s campaign Facebook page, the campaign only removed them when confronted, then walked-back the decision, saying free speech meant they should have left the attacks up. Adkins said,

“We were also wrong to state ‘anti-Semitism will not be tolerated’. That was too strong. I think we are allowed to say we do not like anti-Semitism or anti-gay or anti-anything, and would prefer that anti-everything is not posted. But we cannot ban anything.”

Fine has shot back at all of this. He has also shown that Burns has a history of criminal accusations in multiple states. Fine even held a press conference with a woman who said Burns raped her in Colorado when both were in the US Army. Adkins has stood by Burns in this entire ordeal.

FL House Speaker Jose Oliva has come out in favor of Fine and decried the attacks. While Adkins has raised around $60,000, Fine has topped over $200,000. This nasty event is almost over and polls show Fine will a huge lead.. Though I fear the attacks and facebook posts won’t stop once the ballots are tabulated.

State House 55 – Republican Primary (District Map)

Republican Cary Pigman is termed out from HD55, a dark-red district that includes many of the rural and agriculture lands of south-central Florida north of Lake Okeechobee. The district includes three whole counties; Highlands, Glades, and Okeechobee; and part of St Lucie. Highlands dominates the voting in the seat and both Republicans running are from there. Ned Hancock, who owns Hancock Citrus, is the money leader with over $220,000 raised. He was also the Chair of the Florida Citrus Commission and served on the Highlands School Board. His opponent is Kaylee Tuck, a 25-year old land use attorney who has collected $130,000 in her run. Tuck is well connected, with a grandmother on the Highlands Commission and family scattered through Florida politic institutions. Hancock’s agriculture ties aid him in the farming district, but his past Democratic donation; including to Nikki Fried, have been used against him. Whoever wins is sure to take the seat in November. A recent St Pete Poll showed Tuck with a small edge.

State House 59 – Republican Primary (District Map)

HD59, located in midwest Hillsborough and covering areas like Brandon, is a swingish seat that was represented by Republican Ross Spano before he got elected to Congress in 2018. Democrat Adam Hattersley won the seat but is now running for CD15 himself. Two Republicans have lined up to take on lone-democratic candidate Andrew Learned. Businessman Danny Kushmer, who ran in the 2018 CD15 primary but got just 6%, has raised $75,000 for this race. Michael Owen has raised just over $100,000; but also self-funded $70,000+. The winner will faced Learned in a contentious general.

State House 70 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

Democratic Incumbent Wengay Newton opted not to run for re-election; instead seeking a spot on the Pinellas County Commission. The result is a 4-way Democratic primary for this plurality African-American district that collects African-Americans across Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota counties (look at the map). Pinellas dominates the vote share of the district. Civil Rights attorney Michele Rayner leads in money with $120,000 raised and has the backing of State Senator Darryl Rouson and Charlie Crist. Nonprofit founder Mark Oliver, originally running for HD59, has raised $54,000. Michelle Grimsley, Newton’s legislative aid, has raised $23,000 and has her boss’ backing. Attorney Keisha Bell has raised $28,000.

One recent point of contentious came regarding charter schools, something supported by Grimsley and opposed by Rayner. Another controversy emerged when the Stonewall Democrats of Pinellas County endorsed Oliver, despite the fact Rayner is openly gay and has the backing of Equality Florida.

Whoever wins the primary will walk into the seat. No Republican has filed.

State House 72 – Republican Primary (District Map)

In early 2018, Democrats flipped HD72 in a big-money special election. This suburban Sarasota County seat had backed Trump narrowly then swung to Democrat Margaret Good; who went on to hold the seat narrowly in the 2018 regular election. Good has opted to run for Congressional District 16, leaving Republicans hopeful they can retake the seat. Two Republicans have raised serious money in the primary, which has turned negative in the last couple month. Donna Barcomb has raised just under $100,000 for her bid while Fiona McFarland has pulled in over $200,000. The primary took a ridiculous turn when Barbcomb attacked McFarland for saying “black lives matter” at a forum and McFarland said she “didn’t support the BLM movement.” The winner will face Democrat Drake Buckman in November.

State House 76 – Republican Primary (District Map)

Two Republicans are facing off is the solid-red district, which covers coastal Lee County. Sanibel City Councilman Jason Maughan has raised $170,000 and loaned an additional $30,000. Businessman Adam Botana has raised $225,000. Maughan ran against State Senator Lizbeth Benacquisto in 2016, but only secured 31% of the vote. This go around, Maughan is working to shore up the right-wing, being the only NO vote on a city-wide mask mandate. Botana, meanwhile, has attacked Maughan for his old arrest record. A recent poll gives Botana a double-digit lead. The primary winner will for sure take the seat in November.

State House 77 – Republican Primary (District Map)

Two Republicans have lined up to replace Dane Eagle in this solid-red district that covers Cape Coral. Bryan Blackwell has raised $87,000 and loaned another $20,000. Mike Giallombardo has raised $166,000. Blackwell has been subject to PAC-funded attack ads for being arrested in college for cocaine possession; though he maintains the lab results showed it wasn’t. Giallombardo has gotten the backing of HD76 State Rep, and now State Senate candidate, Ray Rodrigues. Whoever wins will be a lock to hold the seat for the GOP in November.

State House 78 – Republican Primary (District Map)

An increasingly nasty GOP primary has emerged for this Fort Myers-based safe GOP district. Lawyer Jenna Persons has raised over $300,000 while foundation leader Roger Lolly has raised $50,000 and loaned an additional $140,000. Negative attacks have flowed in both directs. Persons has been accused of fundraising for Democrats while Lolly has been attacked for taking a six-figure salary as head of his foundation. Both attacks seem to stretching the facts; but they are making for the nasty looking mailers.

State House 80 – Republican Primary (District Map)

HD80 is being opened up by two-term State Rep Byron Donalds. The district includes northeastern Collier and all of Hendry County. All three candidates, nevertheless, hail from Naples. Lauren Melo dominates in fundraising with $130,000; plus the backing of Donalds. She faces Drew-Montez Clark, who has raised $22,000 and Victor Dotres, who has raised just $4,000. Melo has been able to dominate advertising in the race and is likely to be the GOP nominee is the deep-red seat.

State House 81 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

With first-term Rep Tina Polsky running for State Senate, a democratic primary is underway for the solid-blue house seat; which covers some southwestern suburbs of Palm Beach as well as the communities that dot the southeast edge of Lake Okeechobee. Former State Rep Kelly Skidmore has raised over $110,000 (through her campaign and a committe) and has the backing of many local officials and State Senator Kevin Rader. Lawyer Michael Weinstein has raised $65,000 while loaning another $60,000. His father, Peter Weinstein, used to be a Senate Majority leader. The race has taken has had nasty moments as Weinstein has been scrutinized for clients he defended and he has attacked Skidmore as a career politicians; which itself drew the ire of Palm Beach Tax Collector Anne Gannon. Whoever wins will easily take the seat in November.

State House 82 – Republican Primary (District Map)

Republican Rep MaryLynn Magar is termed out of this solid-red seat that covers most of Martin County and the city of Jupiter. Three Republicans are running for this seat and it has turned into an expensive race. Funny enough, two of the three have run for Congressional District 18. Rick Kozell is the money leader in the race with over $400,000 raised between his main campaign account and a political committee. Kozell was a big money candidate in the 2016 GOP primary for CD18, but he only got 6% in a multi-way race won by Brian Mast. Former State Rep Carl Domino has raised no money but self-funded $140,000 to his campaign. Domino was a State Rep till 2010. He lost a GOP primary to Magar in the 2012 primaries, then won the GOP primary for CD18 in 2014. He would go on to lose to Patrick Murphy by a large margin. The final candidate, former Marine John Snyder, has raised $160,000. Snyder could be a dark horse to win. While he’s the newest to the scene, his opponents have a iffy electoral history in the district.

State House 84 – Republican Primary (District Map)

Located in coastal north St Lucie, two republicans are fighting for the right to take on freshman Democrat Delores Hogan Johnson. The working class district, coupled with a 21% black population, voted for Obama, then Trump, than back to Democrats in 2018. All by narrow margins. Two Republicans are running a fairly low-money primary for the right to take on Johnson. Dana Trabulsy has raised $40,000 while Eileen Vargas has only raised $10,000. This district seems to not be generating major interest or money. The 2018 primaries were similarly cheap affairs.

State House 88 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

A nasty primary has emerged in HD88, a majority black district in Palm Beach county that best resembles a snake (look at the map). The district aims to collect as many African-Americans as possible between the coastal communities to the east and suburbs/retirement communities further west. The district includes a sizable Haitian-American population and Incumbent State Rep Al Jacquet himself is Caribbean. Originally elected in 2016 after serving on the Delray Beach Commission. Jacquet’s tenure has taken a bizarre and nasty turn since the beginning of the year. Reports of Jacquet being hard to reach by state agencies and him telling colleagues he was living out of his car emerged earlier in the year. As Jacquet’s effectiveness came into question and lack of outreach to his district angered voters; primary threats emerged. The most notable primary challenger was Omari Hardy, a Lake Worth Beach Commissioner who made national headlines when a video showed him demanding answers from the city government for its plans to cut off people’s utilities during the COVID pandemic. The video spiked donations to Hardy, who raised more in March that the previous five months combined.

Jacquet drew major criticism when he was caught on video referring to Hardy as a “batty boy” – a Caribbean slur for gay person. Hardy is not gay, but was raised in a same-sex household. The move saw Jacquet lose his role as ranking member of the House Rules Committee. Months later, Jacquet called into a Haitian radio station after a Hardy ad played and told listeners to disregard the ad, saying it was “the gay spot.” The second offense caused a wave of Democratic house and senate members to endorse Hardy over Jacquet. Jacquet’s targeting of this issue is the same reason its coming up in the SD35 primary; there is still an issue with LGBT acceptance in parts of the Caribbean community.

Jacquet has, at least in theory, raised little money for his re-election. His reports say he raised $38,000 and spent nothing. However, Jacquet’s reports are often filled with errors and he’s incurred many fines for improper reports. In addition, the $0 in expenditures is impossible since he paid the qualifying fee, which must be done from the campaign account. Hardy has pointed out that the check Jacquet used looks like it may have been from a personal account; something not permitted.

Omari Hardy has raised $80,000 for his bid so far. Two other Democrats are running, but neither have cracked $5,000. This is very much Hardy vs Jacquet. If Jacquet somehow wins, expect that check issue to re-emerge.

State House 94 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

HD94 is a majority-black district located right in the heart of central Broward; including Ft Lauderdale. Incumbent Bobby DuBose, who is running for his last term, is facing a primary challenge from 21 year old progressive activist Elijah Manley. The race can very much be framed as progressive challenger vs mainline incumbent. Good candidate bios here. DuBose, who is part of the incoming House Dems leadership team, is a solid liberal in the House and served on the Ft Lauderdale commission before his house run. Manley ran for Broward School Board in 2018, coming in 3rd with 18% of the countywide vote; however he got 25% in the precincts covering HD94. This go around, Manley has raised $40,000 for his run while DuBose has raised in $120,000.

State House 95 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

Anika Omphroy had the best luck in 2018 when she was the only person to file for this majority-black house district located in the heart of central Broward County. Incumbent Barrington Russell failed to file his paperwork in time, making Omphroy the automatic winner. Her first term, however, has not made her a favorite among her democratic colleagues. A feud with progressive lawmaker Carlos Smith and a vote for a GOP-pushed parental consent bill has put her in liberal cross-hairs. She has a primary challenge from Jasmen Rogers-Shaw, a democratic activist who has raised $101,000 to Omphroy’s $57,000. Omphroy’s more social-conservative positions could, however, fit in with the district; which is almost 50% Haitian and West Indian. Omphroy herself is Caribbean, and has been discussed before, these voters are more conservative socially.

State House 96 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

Democratic State Rep Kristin Jacobs represented HD96, which covers northwest Broward, including Parkland, since 2014. Jacobs tragically passed away from cancer earlier this year; leaving a major hole in the county delegation. Parkland Mayor Christine Hunschofsky has all the institutional backing for the Democratic primary. Elected in 2016, Hunschofsky had to lead her city in the wake of the tragic shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. Hunschofsky has received praise for her tenure and generated no major challengers for her office. She faces one challenger, Saima Farooqui, who has only raised $5,000 compared with her $100,000.

State House 101 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

A three way primary is underway for HD101, a plurality-black district located in SE Broward; covering parts of Hollywood, Pembroke Pines, Miramar, West Park, Pembroke Park, and Hallandale Beach. Brian Johnson, the Vice Mayor of West Park, has raised $130,000. Ashira Mohammed, the Mayor of Pembroke Park, has raised $34,000. Marie Woodson, a longtime public official in many agencies, has raised $100,000.

The race plays out as West Park and and Pembroke Park, which interlap with each-other in borders, have a fight over annexation. Johnson has the backing of Shevrin Jones, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, and Alcee Hastings. Woodson has the backing of the Sun Sentinel. Woodson could also benefit from being a Haitian candidate in a district that is around 1/4 Caribbean.

State House 102 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

Democrat Sharon Pritchett is termed-out from this deep blue, majority African-American district that covers parts of Miramar, Pembroke Pine, and Miami Gardens. Incumbent Miami Gardens commissioner David Williams has raised $50,000. Former Miami Gardens commissioner Felicia Simone Robinson has raised $73,000. Matthew Tisdol is has raised $19,000. Dennis Hinds has raised just $5,000. The race front-runners appear to be Williams and Robinson; who are the only ones with election success and both hail from the area with the most Democratic voters. However, they also risk splitting their community.

State House 103 – Republican Primary (District Map)

Democrat Cindy Polo finally claimed this majority-Hispanic district from the GOP in the 2018 midterms. The seat is one of many in Miami-Dade that is solidly blue for federal office but Hispanic, often Cuban, Republicans can win at the down-ballot level. The district includes portions of Hialeah, Miramar, Hialeah Gardens, and Doral. A GOP primary between Nelson Rodriguez, who’s raised $38,000, and Tom Fabricio, who’s raised $60,000, is under way for the right to take on Polo. Fabricio has secured several notable endorsements; including former HD103 Rep – and now SD36 Senator – Manny Diaz.

State House 102 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

Democratic State Rep Richard Stark is termed out of the solid-blue state house seat; which covers western Broward’s Pembroke Pines, Southwest Ranches, and Weston. Broward School Board member Robin Bartleman is the front-runner for this seat, raising $100,000 and appearing to be unaffected by controversies that have plagued the county school board. First time candidate Morey Wright is running on a platform of Medicaid Expansion and has raised $11,000. The winner is sure to take the seat in November.

State House 105 – GOP and DEM Primaries (District Map)

HD105 is a long majority-Hispanic district that stretches from west Miami-Dade to eastern Collier County. First term Republican Ana Maria Rodriguez is running for Senate District 39; leaving open another seat that is blue at the federal level but still willing to elect local Hispanic Republicans.

GOP side: Sweetwater Commissioner David Borrero has raised $150,000. Attorney and former HD119 candidate Bibiana Potestad has raised $210,000. Heath councilor Pedro Barrios has raised just $8,000. Potestad, the child of Cuban exiles who fled the island, has the backing of many prominent Republicans, including SD39 State Senator Anitere Flores, and GOP-funding political committees. Borrero, meanwhile, has the backing of consultants tied to future House Speaker Daniel Perez. He was also the campaign manager to former 105 state rep Carlos Trujillo.

DEM side: Javier Estevez, who lost to Rodriguez in a close 2018 General election, has raised $50,000. Immigration attorney Maureen Porras has raised $40,000. Estevez has the backing of 103 state Rep Cindy Polo while Porras has the backing of several Broward politicians and SD40 State Senator Annette Taddeo.

State House 107 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

Covering areas of North Miami and Miami Gardens, HD107 is a majority-black, deep blue district with the largest Caribbean (60%) and Haitian (26%) populations in the state. (Note Haitian is included in that Caribbean total). Incumbent Barbara Watson is termed out. Watson, who is non-Caribbean, narrowly defeated Caribbean candidates in 2012 and 2014 primaries.

This go around, lawyer Christopher Benjamin, who is a Caribbean with strong ties across the African-American community, is the front-runner for this seat; raising $62,000. Former Miami Gardens commissioner (appointed) Ulysses Harvard has raised $18,000.

State House 108 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

HD108 is a dark-blue, majority-black house seat located in North Miami and moving up into Biscayne Park. The district has the second-largest Caribbean populations (55%) and second largest Haitian population (25%) in the state. Incumbent Dotie Joseph won her seat in 2018, ousting controversial incumbent Roy Hardemon in the Democratic primary.

Hardemon has won a crazy-split Democratic primary in 2016; taking just 23% (map here). In his re-election, he only took the areas largely represented by his nephew, Keon Hardemon, on the Miami City Council. Hardemon, who had a long history of criminal charges and controversial statements, saw democrats back Haitian lawyer Dotie Joseph in 2018; and lashed out in the process. After losing, he filed to challenge Joseph in 2020.

Joseph dominates in fundraising; taking in $200,000. Hardemon has just raised $6,000. A third candidate, first time seeker Georges Bossous, has raised $12,000.

One thing worth keeping an eye on is Keon, who is running for Miami-Dade County Commission 3. The city commissioner has raised $400,000 for his county bid and is in a big primary for the seat. The commission district overlaps with a good chunk of HD108.

So what does this mean? Alot of voters are getting “Hardemon” advertising. Could this boost Roy? There is an argument Roy’s past performances have been aided by the name of his more successful nephew. In the end, Joseph should win, but don’t be surprised is Hardemon is stronger in the overlap regions.

State House 108 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

Democrats have a chaotic history in HD114, majority-Hispanic district located in south-central Miami-Dade; covering South Miami, Pinecrest, and Palmetto Bay. Democratic Incumbent Javier Fernandez won a 2018 special election (and held on in November), replacing Daisy Baez, who had won the seat in 2018 but resigned over residency issues. Now Fernandez is running for Senate 39; leaving two new Democrats to try and hold the seat for their party. The seat will be contested in November. Lawyer Jean-Pierre Bado has raised $60,000. Sue Loyzelle, Cutler Bay vice-Mayor, has raised $35,000. Whoever wins will take on Republican Demi Busatta Cabrera, who sits on $120,000, in a top-tier house race.

State House 116 – Republican Primary (District Map)

With an estimated 48% Cuban population, HD116 is a pretty steadfast GOP district down-ballot despite Hillary Clinton winning it in 2016. Incumbent Daniel Perez won a contentious special election in 2017. The primary Perez won was filled with Cuba-related drama; with Perez being attacked for visiting Cuba and Perez pointing out he was the only full-blood Cuban in the race. Once elected, Perez worked his way up the ranks and was elected to be the future Florida House Speaker (slated for the 2024-2026 session). For those who don’t know, yes majority parties plan this stuff out that far in advance.

The race has taken on a bizarre twist. Perez got a primary challenger, Gabriel Garcia, who has raised under $20,000. Perez has $500,000! Suddenly, Perez has been subject to attacks for taking his wedding engagement photos in Cuba from a group called Citizens for Ethical and Effective Leadership. The group is aiming to weaken Perez with the Cuban exile community. The group has been getting hundreds-of-thousands of dollars from Conservative Principles for Florida, a group that current house Speaker Jose Oliva (a fellow Miami-Dade Cuban Republican) controls. The Oliva-backed committee has continued to pour money into CEEL, which has been attacking Perez. Oliva has claimed that the donations are meant to be used for Miami-Dade mayor, but it is clear CEEL is going after Perez as well. Oliva has refused to say if he supports Perez and many Republicans are internally fuming at Oliva, who is termed out, for going after a fellow Republican that he, for whatever reason (sources differ), doesn’t like.

This is a race that shouldn’t even exist. However, its clearly an effort by an outgoing speaker to defeat a future speaker from his same party. Garcia is just the puppet.

State House 117 – Democratic Primary (District Map)

Democratic House leader Kionne McGhee is termed out of HD117; a district with large Hispanic and African-American population that skates down State Road 1 in southern Miami-Dade. Kevin Chambliss, who has worked for multiple politicians in Miami-Dade and has the backing of Democrats Shalala and Mucarsel-Powell, has raised $52,000. Harold Ford has raised less than $5,000. Jessica Laguerre Hylton has raised just under $10,000. This race has gained little attention and Chambliss is the favorite. No Republican is running in November.

State House 120 – Republican Primary (District Map)

HD120 is a 49% white, 40% Hispanic district that covers portions of southern Miami-Dade and all of the Florida Keys. For the last eight years, the district was represented by Holly Merrill Raschein, a moderate Republican known for backing gay rights and environmental issues. Despite the district being politically split, Raschein always head on thanks to cross-over appeal. Now a contentious 3-way primary is underway to replace her.

Former Islamorada (the keys) Mayor Jim Mooney has raised $130,000 and has the backing of Raschein. Lawyer Alexandria Suarez has raised $53,000. Rhonda Rebman Lopez is the money leader with over $250,000. Lopez also has the backing of the Everglades Trust; a valuable endorsement in a district where water quality and the environment is important. The race has featured some nasty mailers and texts from a PAC that is claiming, falsely, that Mooney is under criminal investigation. The PACs are also pushing Suarez; who denies being involved, but I can many are skeptical.

Whoever wins will go on to face Democrat Clint Barras in the general.

Local Races to Watch

There are countless local races on the ballot Tuesday. This section aims to just focus on some of the most prominent and controversial ones that have come along my radar. These are in no particular order.

Broward County Sheriff Democratic Primary

Perhaps no local race generates as much raw emotion as Broward Sheriff. After the tragic Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, Sheriff Scott Israel came under fire for how his department handled the events the occurred as the shooting took place; including deputies not storming the school. I am not going to litigate that. Whether Israel had any blame in the shooting depends who you ask. However, Israel’s defensive tone after the critiques emerged did not help matters. Israel faced calls to be removed, but it didn’t happen till 10 months later after Ron DeSantis took office. Israel was removed and Gregory Tony, an African-American democrat, was appointed. Israel sued to get his job back and a State Senate special master found he should not have been removed. However, the State Senate voted not to reinstate him on a largely partisan vote. Now a democratic primary is underway between Tony and Israel. A summary of the many twists and turns can be found here and here. This is a complicated race. Israel was a well-liked sheriff before and many feel he shouldn’t have been removed. Tony has had some fumbles when it comes to disclosing his past, but many also feel has done a good job. Parkland families are universal in their dislike for Israel, however. Both dominate in money and name-ID, though several others are running. However, polls indicate one of the two will ultimately win.

Clay County Sheriff Republican Primary

Darryl Daniels was elected Clay County Sheriff in 2016, and his first term has been filled with controversy. It started when Daniels ordered the arrest of a woman he was having an affair with, making up a charge that she was stalking him. His story quickly unraveled and his affair became public. The scandal has been brewing for some time and Daniels already courted several primary challengers. It got even crazier when formal charges were filed just last week and Governor DeSantis suspended Daniels from office.

Daniels has many primary challengers; which has sparked the possibility he could still hand on. Daniels ran far to the right in a bid to hold on as well; pledging to deputize gun owners if Black Lives Matter events came to the county. Oh btw, Daniels is black.

Atlantic Beach Police Chief Michelle Cook leads the money race with $170,000 raised. Daniels has raised $99,000 and overall has five opponents! The big question for most is will Daniels hold on thanks to the split field. If he does, what happens after?

Pinellas Commission District 7 Democratic Primary

Pinellas Commission 7 is an African-American heavy seat located in the southern end of the county; including St Petersburg. It is the seen of a faceoff between Rene Flowers, a school board member, and Wengay Newton, a state house member. Newton has been a thorn in the side of liberal democrats for several years. He has backed the GOP on school vouchers and he was a supporter of Republican Rick Baker in the 2017 St Petersburg Mayoral Election. More liberal backers are hoping Flowers can beat Newton. Newton has raised $80,000 while Flowers has taken in $64,000.

Okaloosa County Superintendent Republican Primary

When Ron DeSantis was sworn in as Governor in 2019, he suspended Okaloosa Superintendent Mary Beth Jackson. The suspension stemmed from a damning investigation that revealed physical abuse by several teachers against students. While investigators did not find Jackson knew about the abuse, it found she had not set up proper training procedures to ensure such abuse would be reported. DeSantis appointed Assistant Superintendent of Curriculum Marcus Chambers to fill the position. Chambers is now running for a full term. Chambers’ opponent is Ray Sansom, who is a Charter School administration now, but WAS the former Speaker of the State House. Sansom briefly served as Speaker from November 2008 to February 2009, when he had to step aside due to a corruption scandal. The issue stemmed from his taking a 6-figure job at an institute that was created through money he guided through the preview budget. Sansom was also under-fire for directing funds for an airplane hanger for a prominent Sansom and FL GOP donors. Facing expulsion, Sansom resigned from the house in 2010. Funny enough, a young Matt Gaetz won the special election for that seat. Now Sansom is making a comeback and going after Chambers for the abuse scandal, arguing Chambers is as liable as the former Superintendent.

Sansom has raised $140,000 while Chambers has taken in $120,000. But outside money is coming in as well. Matt Gaetz has steered over $75,000 to anti-Sansom attacks. Developer Jay Odom has directed over $100,000 to Sansom’s aid and attacks on Chambers. Oh btw, Odom is the donor Sansom got that jet hanger for all those years back. Can’t make that up.

Broward County Clerk of Court Democratic Primary

The saga of the Broward Clerk of Court over the last four years is worth of a soap opera. Lets sum it up. Longtime Clerk of Court Howard Forman got married to an employee, Brenda Forman, in 2013. He then retired in 2016. She ran for his office and thanks to the name (she raised little money) she won a three-way primary. Shortly after, the couple got divorced and Brenda tried to claim Howard (many years her senior) had dementia and she should control his finances. Judges rejected this. Howard then opted to challenge Brenda in a 2020 primary, but dropped out as COVID became a big issue. Her tenure has been filled with problems; from filings going missing, mishandling of COVID safety measures, and the quitting of longtime workers. The problem is, Forman could win anyway thanks to the name and voters not paying close attention to a Clerk of Court race. Judge Mark Alan Speiser has raised $140,000 and has the backing of the Sun Sentinel. Paul Backman, also a judge, has raised $170,000. There is a concern that the split in the anti-Forman vote could allow Brenda, who only has $20,000 raised, to slip through. We will have to see. Another note, this primary is open to all voters since no one filed for the general.

Orange County Property Appraiser Democratic Primary

Orange Property Appraiser Rick Singh is a larger-than-life and controversial figure in Orange County. Singh was elected in 2012 and has made a name for himself in his battles against Disney and Universal over their theme parks and their property tax bills. Singh has valued park assets higher than the companies want; with the difference meaning millions in tax bills. In 2016, its believed that PACs attacking Singh in his re-election campaign were funded by Disney and/or Universal. Businesses and Property Appraisers clashing in elections is something I wrote about a few months back. Singh, however, has generated recent controversy when former staff came forward with sexual misconduct allegations as well as financial misdeeds (read it all here). Singh had avoided prosecution due to lack of solid evidence, but questions have lingered. A strong primary challenger emerged in State Rep Amy Mercado; who joined real estate broker Khalid Muneer in a primary against Singh. Despite the controversies, Singh has raised over $200,000. Mercado and Muneer have both taken in around $70,000. While Singh leads in hard money, he has been subject to big-money third party attacks as the campaigns draw to an end. Singh’s controversies have dominated the primary, but he could well hold on thanks to the split vote and lack of arrest.

Tallahassee City Commission Seat 1 (Non-Partisan)

Yes this probably only gets coverage because I live here. But hear me out, its an interesting race.

Tallahassee, Florida’s capital, elects all commissioners citywide. By far one of the biggest races in the city, and county, is for district 1. Incumbent Elaine Bryant was appointed to the seat on New Years Eve 2018; replacing Scott Maddox after he was suspended from office for indictments regarding corruption. Before Bryant’s selection, the front-runner appeared to be liberal activists Tabitha Frazier; with three of four commissioners putting her on the finalist lists. Once it became clear she was the front-runner however, Republicans in the city began to work behind the scenes to find a candidate more palpable. Bryant, who was part of the finalist list, was seen as an acceptable by business groups and had the backing of many African-American pastors. When the open commission meeting came, Frazier had a litany of speakers pushing her. The commissioners never acknowledged Frazier and quickly picked Bryant out of nowhere. I should disclose this is something that I was pretty mad about. But this aside, the appointment was a historic milestone for Tallahassee, as it gave the city its first majority African-American commission since at least reconstruction. But for liberals, the behind the scenes issues became apparent when Bryant rejected liberal proposals like a city-run internet. Now Bryant is running for a full term.

A major liberal complaint in Tallahassee has long been that most of the politicians are not liberal Democrats, but rather moderates who don’t take bold positions. This is despite the city being overwhelmingly Democratic and by and large liberal in voting. The lone commissioner in Tallahassee who pushes left-wing issues is Jeremy Matlow, elected in 2018. Progressives have now gotten behind candidate Jacqueline Porter, a white progressive. Porter has run much more in the Matlow mold, critical of the incumbent city administration and pushing more left-wing initiatives. Porter has Matlow’s backing while Mayor Dailey is backing Bryant. Both have raised just under $90,000. Bryant’s coalition is a combination of African-Americans in Tallahassee’s southside and northside Republicans. Porter is for sure the candidate of white liberals, but she also has the backing of longtime southside commissioner Bill Proctor; a major player in local African-American politics. How this race shakes out will be interesting. If Porter wins, it could signal a growing trend of more openly-liberal democrats winning office in Tallahassee.

Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Democratic Primary

Wendy Sartory Link was appointed Palm Beach Supervisor of Elections in 2019 after he removed Susan Bucher over problems during the 2018 recount. Bucher opted not to appeal the decision or run for her old job. Link originally said she would only serve two years. However, Link eventually changed her mind, flipped her registration to Democratic, and filed for re-election. Opportunism? Yes. Has her time as Elections Supervisor received good reviews? Also yes. Link’s tenure managing city elections and the Presidential primary have received good marks and Link has pushed vote-by-mail as COVID rages. Her primary opponent, laywer Paulette Armstead, who’s ran for state house in 2018, has largely hit Link for her party registration change. Link has raised just under $100,000 to Armstead’s $28,000. The primary is open to all voters sense no one filed for the GOP or NPA.

Alachua County Sheriff Democratic Primary

Democratic Sheriff Sadie Darnell drew Democratic fury when she endorsed Rick Scott over Bill Nelson in the 2018 sheriff’s race. Democratic Sheriff’s backing Scott isn’t new; but it has largely come from rural “dixiecrat” counties. Alachua is a deep blue county thanks to Gainesville and the University of Florida. Darnell has drawn a challenge from state rep Clovis Watson; who has out-raised Darnell $90,000 to $50,000.

Miami-Dade County Mayor (Non-Partisan)

Six candidates are running for Miami-Dade County Mayor, but only four are of note. This race has generated at least $13 million dollars in spending with a bunch of dark money as well. This is a battle to be in charge of the largest county in the state. The top two candidates will advance to a runoff; lets break down who are four contenders are

• Alexander Penelas, Democrat, was mayor of Miami-Dade county in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The son of Cuban exiles (his father was actually condemned to death by the Castro regime), he grew up in Hialeah and refused to aid in the removal of Elian Gonzalez. If you don’t know about the case, I cannot summarize here. Good wikipedia page. But growing up in Broward; this DOMINATED local news in 2000. Penelas is a rare Democrat with strong appeal in the Cuban community and in Hialeah.
• Daniella Levine Cava, Democrat, is a County Commissioner for District 8, which covers parts of the southern end of the county. She is considered the most liberal candidate running and won a heavily-contested race in 2014; knocking off a big-time GOP-backed candidate.
• Xavier Suarez, independent, is a current County Commissioner and former Mayor of City of Miami. Elected Miami Mayor in 1985, he was the first Cuban mayor of the city. In fact his son is the current Miami mayor. Suarez has come off as decidedly non-partisan politician in recent years.
• Esteban L. Bovo, Republican, is a County Commissioner for District 13; located in Hialeah. Bovo is running much more as an ardent conservative; something he could try to use to get into a runoff but have trouble come November.

Top two advance.

Broward County Supervisor of Elections Democratic Primary

Longtime Broward Supervisor of Elections Brenda Snipes royally fucked up the 2018 ballot design. Before then, she had a slew of mistakes, all which culminated in her removal/stepping down from office. With Pete Antonacci running the office for the moment, a 6-way democratic primary is underway to serve a full term. The most notorious candidate is Mitch Ceasar, the controversial longtime former Broward Dems Chair, who has raised $180,000. Ceasar, also a former Florida Democratic Party chair, finally stepped down from his county post to run for Clerk of Court in 2016, but lost the Democratic primary. Right behind him in money with $165,000 is lawyer Chad Klitzman, a 26 year old activist who has spent his time representing people on voting rights issues. He also has the backing of the Sun Sentinel. Former school board member Jennifer Gottlieb (who had to step down in 2011 as scandal rocked the board) has taken in $96,000. Oakland Park City Commissioner Tim Lonergan has raised $50,000. Veteran Joe Scott of Parkland has raised $99,000. Ruth Carter-Lynch, of Lauderhill and a former school board candidate, has raised $45,000.

Anyone could win this. But honestly Klitzman looks to be the best choice. The Sentinel rightly pointed out his focus on elections issues is a big plus. Just pray Ceasar, a pusher of old-school machine politics, doesn’t win.

Miami-Dade Commission District 1 (Non-Partisan) (District Map)

Two Democrats are facing off in this African-American council district that covers Miami Gardens in the north-end of the county. Sybrina Fulton, the mother of Trayvon Martin, is running for this seat and has raised over $500,000. Fulton founded the “Trayvon Martin Foundation” – which is located in Miami Gardens – after he son was shot at killed in Stanford in 2012; which sparked nationwide protests and a re-look at Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” laws. Miami Gardens mayor Oliver Gilbert is Fulton’s lone opponent, and has likewise raised over $500,000 for his bid.

Miami-Dade Commission District 5 (Non-Partisan) (District Map)

In a 2018, Democrats won control of the Miami-Dade commission after Eileen Higgins won a special election for Commission District 5. She did so by defeating Republicans Zoraida Barreiro and Alex Diaz de la Portilla; two prominent Republicans.

Alex was eliminated in the first round and Higgins won the runoff. Now Higgins is running for a full term against two opponents, but her main challenge is Alex’s brother, Renier Diaz de la Portilla. Renier is a former state house member and school board member. His brothers, Alex and Miguel, have all served in the state legislature. The Cuban brothers are a powerful force in Dade politics, winning and losing races (great graph) over the last 20 years. Dade itself is a county of many prominent political families. Higgins must now beat Renier like she did Alex (who himself has since gotten elected to the Miami City Commission (map here)). Renier has taken in over $500,000 while Higgins has raised over $300,000; and trust me outside money if flowing as well. A third candidate, Miguel Soliman, who has raised $100,000 could force a runoff. However, if anyone gets 50%, its over.

Miami-Dade Commission District 7 (Non-Partisan) (District Map)

With independent Xavier Suarez running for Dade Mayor, Democrats are hoping to add another member to the commission. Democrats are backing former state house member and former Pinecrest Mayor Cindy Lerner. She faces Raquel Regalado a Republican former school board member who ran for County Mayor in 2016. Both have raised between $240,000 and $280,000. If Lerner wins, it will expand the Democratic majority on the officially non-partisan commission.

Conclusion

Enjoy!