The entire Florida house, all 120 seats, is up for election in just 2 weeks. Democrats have not held the state house since the 1990s and since the 2000s have had to fight under heavily gerrymandered maps. While the State Senate and Congressional maps were forced to redraw their boundaries in 2015 – resulting in more responsive and fair maps – the state house map remains a GOP gerrymander. When Trump won the state of Florida by 1%, he won 66 districts to Clinton’s 44. Only a handful of seats were especially close, most being solidly blue or solidly red. Read more about my breakdown of the map in the 2016 elections in this article.
2018’s midterms in Florida featured five statewide races. This provides more critical data for seeing how these districts have been trending. I offer detail results in this article; but below is a map showing the winner combinations for all five districts.
Most of Florida’s statewide races in 2018 were closer than President was. However, that does not mean there was a uniform swing. This map shows how Gillum’s Gubernatorial Margin compared with Clinton’s Presidential margin.
As the map shows, Gillum made gains across most of the state, but saw major swings to the right in the Miami-Dade area. This was thanks to Cuban voters, who were very iffy about Donald Trump, moving back to a more GOP posture. If you are not familiar with Miami-Dade politics as much, I recommend you read my piece on the 2018 shift in the county. The key point moving forward is, Presidential results cannot be seen as the only arbiter of results. Many districts split tickets and nothing is a lock just because one party won the district at the top of the ticket.
In the 2018 midterms, Democrats picked up 7 seats from the GOP, and lost 2. It could also be viewed as 8 seats because they held HD72 and flipping it in a special election earlier that year. Democratic gains were in suburbs and Miami-Dade while the GOP flipped a working-class Volusia district and a Dade district with a solid Cuban population.
And finally, with those 2018 results, this is the current party makeup of the Florida House in comparison to the Presidential election.
Democrats hold 4 Trump districts while the GOP holds 11 Clinton seats. We will cover all these districts as we go through these ratings. Many are competitive; some less so.
While compiling these ratings I looked at many factors: namely
- Fundraising
- Reported outside involvement
- Polls
- Party chatter
Fundraising reports are hard money, but most districts also see heavy third party involvement. For example, some Democrats running have weak fundraising but a PAC called Forward Majority is investing big in several districts. GOP candidates, meanwhile, often can raise huge sums from the GOP donor network, but can also count on the party to aid them when needed.
With that. Lets move on to the ratings themselves. I start with the tossups and move down the competitiveness ladder
Tossup Districts
House District 21
One of the best pickup prospects for Democrats this cycle is in HD21; a GOP gerrymander that connects splits Gainesville and connects UF and its suburbs to the rural counties of Gilchrist and Dixie. The district voted Romney but narrowly flipped to Clinton in 2016. It moved further left in 2018 thanks to record Democratic margins in Alachua County. Gillum won it by 4% and Nelson by 7%.
Two-term Republican Chuck Clemons is defending this seat for his party. Democrats recruited Dr Kayser Enneking, who narrowly lost a Senate District 8 general election in 2018 thanks to split on the left from a 3rd party candidate that the GOP finically propped up. Enneking has outpaced Clemons in fundraising this election. She has taken in $660,000 to Clemon’s $440,000.
House District 26
District 26, which is a Volusia-based white working class that connects Daytona Beach and Deltona. The district was a prime example of Trump’s gains with WWC voters when the district went from Obama+16 to Clinton +1. That same year, Democrat Patrick Henry won by 5%. However, Henry got caught sleeping through re-election in 2018 when he lost by less than 100 votes to Republican Elizabeth Fetterhoff despite Gillum and Nelson winning the district by 4%.
Henry has opted for a re-match. After winning a Democratic primary, he rapidly raised over $100,000; putting him at $175,000 total raised. Fetterhoff still leads in money raised, however, with $237,000. A recent poll gave Henry a 2% lead, with Biden leading in the district by 6 points.
House District 28
Covering eastern Seminole County, district 28 is seeing some rapid political change. As the suburbs, and by extension Seminole county, become more democratic, this district has moved up the competitive charts. The district voted for Trump by a modest 4% margin in 2016, but then narrowly backed Nelson in 2018 and only backed DeSantis by a handful of votes.
Since 2018, the district has seen its registration become less Republican, moving from a 4.2% GOP advantage to 2.8%. The seat is now home to a major political battleground as it overlaps with Senate District 9; which is seeing both parties spending millions in the district. The outcome of this race will likely be decided by factors further up the ballot, not the candidates themselves. Republican David Smith knows he’s in for a race. He has raised over $470,000 and just loaned his campaign $50,000 more. Democrat Pasha Baker is far behind with $76,000 raised. However, Baker also has Forward Majority running ads in the district for her. In addition, the presence of the state senate contest is already creating an oversaturation point in the area. I’d kill for some polling here.
House District 29
Be sure to read my coverage for District 28 before you read this. You did? Ok great. Copy and paste all of that to here. This district is WEST Seminole, but all the dynamics in play are largely the same. The district was 4% Trump then went to 1.5% DeSantis and Scott.
Since 2018 its registration has trended more democratic; going from 4.8% GOP to 2.8% DEM. Republican Scott Plakon has raised $260,000 while Democrat Tracey Kagan has raised $207,000. The money situation is much more even than in 28. However, I consider both tossups due to the shifting political nature of the region and the unpredictability involved.
House District 59
Covering Riverview and Brandon, this Hillsborough-based seat is a very swingish and divided district. It voted for Trump by 0.3% but moved to the left in 2018; voting for Nelson by 4% and Gillum by 5%. Democrat Adam Hattersley flipped the open district in 2018; winning by 3 points.
Hattersley opted to run for Congressional District 15, leaving the seat open. Unfortunately for the representative, he’d go on to lose the democratic primary. Democrats recruited 2018 FL-15 candidate Andrew Learned for the seat; who has raised $261,000 for his bid. The Republicans, meanwhile, had an expensive primary of their own; which saw Michael Owen advance. Owen has raked in over $100,000 since the primary; raising $245k and loaning another $85K since he filed.
Democrats were not done any favors by Hattersley bolting so quick, but Learned is a strong contender. Overall this district is a tossup and will likely be decided by how the Presidential contest shakes out within its border.
House District 72
Democrat Margaret Good won this Trump +5 seat in 2018 special election and subsequently held the seat in the regular 2018 election against former State Representative Ray Pilon. Good’s 1% win was closer than her 8% win in the special election; but till better than Gillum and Nelson’s 1% losses that same day.
Good opted not to run for re-election this year, instead running for the 16th Congressional district. Democrats recruited attorney Drake Buckman for the seat while Fiona McFarland won a three-way GOP primary in August. Buckman has raised $135,000; well below McFarland’s $330,000; however she had to spend over 200 of that in the primary. This is widely considered the GOP’s best pickup opportunity. However, a recent poll puts Buckman up 4 points and Trump way down.
House District 89
House district 89 is based out southern Palm Beach county, then stretches far up the Palm Beach coast. The formal reason is that on the western end of that coastal strip is a snake-like African-American district that grabs every black voter it can. The districts northern edges are very Republican and overall create a district that is swingish but also leans GOP. The district backed Romney 52-46 but then swung to a Clinton 49-48 win.
It featured a razer-close race in 2018; when Republican businessman Mike Caruso defeated Ocean Ridge Mayor Jim Bonfiglio. Caruso only won the district by 32 raw votes. The same day, Nelson and Gillum won the district by 2%. This year is featuring a rematch between both candidate. Caruso has raised $300,000. Bonfiglio has taken in $200,000 while self-funding another $90,000. The seat is also the site of third party spending on both sides and is considered a major battleground district. The latest poll has the Democrat up 2% while having Biden up a staggering 14 points! In the poll, 5% of voters are splitting tickets, and another 5% are Biden/undecideds; meaning Democrats have room to grow. If Democrats take the seat, it means Donald Trump will have a Democratic State House member.
House District 93
The lone GOP house seat in Broward County, district 93 hugs the northern Broward coast as two African-American districts covers the inland communities to its west. The small cities of coastal North Broward – Sea Ranch Lakes, Lauderdale-by-the-Sea, Hillsboro Beach and Lighthouse Point – are the most Republican in the county and all lie in the district. The seat also includes scattered African-American and democratic communities from Deerfield, Pompano and Ft Lauderdale. The district backed Trump 49-48 and moved to the left in 2018; giving Nelson a 4% win and Gilum a 0.4% victory. However, that same day Broward commissioner Chip Lamarca; who as the lone Republican commission represented a district slightly to the left of the house seat, defeated Democrat Emma Collum by 7 points.
That race was a big money battle that both parties invested in. LaMarca’s strength in the region is clear; having represented the area since 2010. LaMarca losing would likely require a decent Biden win the district; and even then many of the wealthy white coastal residents of the district are liable to split their tickets. Democrat Linda Thompson Gonzalez is a strong candidate; raking in over $120,000. In addition, the Forward Majority PAC is going after LaMarca in TV ads. However, LaMarca has raised just under $400,000 and has access to all the outside GOP help he needs. This district has felt like a fool’s gold for Democrats for many cycles at this point. A recent poll gives LaMarca a 1% lead while Trump is down 8.
House District 105
This open, majority-Hispanic district, which covers a huge swath of land from Collier County to Miami-Dade, is, on paper, a ripe pickup opportunity for Democrats. As I have said, Presidential vote is misleading in Dade. Clinton won the district by 16 points the same day Rubio won the district by 7%.
Democrats came within 500 votes of winning the seat in 2018; the same day Nelson and Gillum won the district by 4%. Both parties are aiming for this seat; with both having primaries to pick nominees. Democratic nominee Maureen Porras has raised over $400,000 while Republican David Borrero has raised $270,000. This district is being invested in by both parties and outside groups. Biden should easily win it, but the question will be how much the ticket-splitting continues as it has in the past.
House District 115
Further down in Dade lies another open Hispanic district. This seat backed Clinton by a 53-43 margin while backing Rubio 51-47 that same day. In 2018 the district was modestly Democratic; backing Gillum and Nelson by 2% and 4% respectively.
Republican Incumbent Vance Aloupis has raised over $400,000 for his re-election. Democrat Franccesca Cesti-Browne, meanwhile, has raised just over $200,000 and has air cover from Forward Majority.
House District 118
Democrats picked up this majority-Hispanic district in 2016. Based around Kendall, The Crossings, and Richmond West; this seat, like so many in Miami-Dade, has moved to Democrats at the top of the ballot but still maintains a down-ballot opportunity for Republicans. Clinton won the district 54-42 while Rubio won the seat 54-44. Democrat Robert Asencio scored a narrow 1% victory in 2016 against scandal-plagued former Congressman David Rivera. Republicans, believing Rivera cost them the seat in 2016, made a push for the district and their nominee, Anthony Rodriguez, won the seat by 2%.
Democrats believe weaker non-Cuban turnout cost them the district and both parties are all in for this seat. Democratic recruit Ricky Junquera has raised over $200,000 and Forward Majority is running ads in the district. Rodriguez has raised over $375,000 and has plenty of backing from conservative groups. The district went from Clinton +12% to DeSantis +0.2% in 2018. If Biden can regain some of that slide, it could propel a Democratic victory.
House District 120
At the southern end of Florida lies district 120. This seat covers all of the Florida keys (Monroe County) and southern Dade. The district is 40% Hispanic and is generally a swingish district that Democrats held till 2012. With Republican incumbent Holly Raschein termed out, Democrats are hoping that can win the seat. Clinton won the district by 1.6% in 2016 while Gillum won it by 1.2% in the 2018 Gubernatorial election. The district is known for splitting tickets, as Raschein constantly won and Bill Nelson won the district by a large 3.6% margin.
Democratic nominee Clint Barras has raised over $200,000 for his bid and has backing from Forward Majority. Republican James Vernon Mooney, a mayor from the Florida Keys city of Islamorada has raised $190,000, but had to spend well over 100 of that on a contentious three-way GOP primary. With Rep Raschein termed-out, this represents the Democrats’ best chance to win the seat since 2012.
Lean Republican Districts
House District 15
District 15, which covers southwest Duval County, was the home to a expensive and nasty election in 2018. The district backed Donald Trump 52-44 but swung to the left in the midterms.
Republican Wyman Duggan only pulled off a 1% win against Democrat Tracye Ann Polson in 2018; with both candidates raising hundreds of thousands of dollars. In addition, Gillum lost the district by just under 1% while Nelson lost it by around 3%. Despite this close race, however, the 2020 cycle has not seen Democratic money flow into the district. Democratic nominee Tammyette Thomas hasn’t cracked $20,000; while Duggan is well over $200,000. Duggan and his allies aren’t risking anything either, and have been going after Thomas in television ads. This money disadvantage is in spite of the district’s continued democratic trend. Over the past two years, Democrats have increased their voter registration advantage to 40.2% – 37.4% after being nearly neck and neck during the 2018 midterm. Thomas has gotten some air cover from the Forward Majority PAC, which has been running ads in the district going over Duggan. The money dynamic aids Duggan and keeps this from being a tossup. But Thomas does have a chance thanks to help from outside groups.
House District 42
Covering southern Osceola and part of eastern Polk, this district has been the subject of a crazy development. While the seat overall leans GOP, backing Trump by 3% and DeSantis by 4%, the race to replace Republican Mike La Rosa has gotten complicated. The district includes the more GOP-friendly portions of the otherwise blue Osceola County and the lone GOP commissioner for the county, Fred Hawkins, is the nominee for his party. However, he has run into some legal issues. Hawkins was recently arrested for impersonating a Sheriff’s officer to try and get into a homeowners association meeting. He was then suspended from his county commission position by Governor DeSantis, but pledges to stay in the race. This developed right before his 4-way primary; of which he was the dominant frontrunner. He wound up with a weaker-than-expected 47% win even though he had raised over $200,000 while none of his opponents topped 10K. He’s now in a general against Democrat Barbara Ann Cady, who has taken in $66,000. No doubt sensing the lingering charges could hurt him, Hawkins agreed to a plea deal despite claiming the charges were political. Without this scandal the district would likely be viewed as more GOP secure, as it actually moved a bit to the right in 2018. Hawkins’ troubles keep it in play.
House District 50
Incumbent Rene Plasencia had an upset victory in 2014 when he beat Joe Saunders in the much more Democratic HD49. Realizing the red wave had propelled him, Plasencia opted to run in the more GOP House District 50 in 2016, which he won. The east includes eastern Orlando and Orange County while linking to western Brevard; specifically the city of Titusville. Trump only won it 50-45 while it only voted 50-48 for Governor and Senator in the 2018 midterms. Sensing an opportunity, Democrats have put more focus on the district. Democratic nominee Nina Yoakum has raised $80,000 and has TV cover from Forward Majority. Plasencia has brought in $200,000 so far and has FL GOP backing. The district could be propelled further left this year, but Plasencia still retains an advantage due to his more moderate nature and ties to the area.
House District 64
This district sits in the northwestern suburbs of Hillsborough County, stretching into Northeastern Pinellas. The district backed Trump by 9% in 2016 and swung a few points left in 2018; backing DeSantis and Scott by 6%. The seat was going to be a face-off between Republican Jamie Grant and Democrat Jessica Harrington; who was running an aggressive campaign against the longtime incumbent. Grant generated a great deal of progressive anger for his efforts to weaken Amendment 4; which set a path for people convicted of non-violent felonies to get their voting rights automatically restored. Grant worked the legislation to insist court fees must be paid to get voting rights back. He was dubbed #JimCrowJamie for his efforts. Grant’s role caused a wave of support to his democratic opponent, and Grant would soon run away from re-election be appointed by Ron DeSantis to an administrative position. Harrington has continued her campaign and has raised an impressive $240,000. The Republican Party tapped Traci Koster as their replacement nominee; who has quickly raised over $100,000. Originally I’d peg this as a tossup, but a recent poll gave Koster a 5 point lead. This falls in line with the general GOP lead of the seat. An upset can’t be ruled out; and I wonder what polls would show if Grant remained. Harrington is a strong contender, but the district is still fairly right-wing.
Lean Democratic Districts
House District 60
This largely suburban district loops around the coast of Hillsborough County and has been a major site of Trump backlash. The district narrowly backed the Republican in 2016; but by a far smaller margin than Romney’s 7% win in 2012.
Democrats aimed for the district in 2016 and 2018 but came up short. 2020 looks like their year, however. A recent poll puts Democratic nominee Julie Jenkins up 10% over incumbent Jackie Toledo. The same poll show Biden leading Trump by 11%. Jenkin’s has raised just under $200,000 while Toledo has taken in over $400,000. However, Forward Majority is on the air in the 60th and the polling indicates this seat is best Democratic pickup opportunity in the state.
House District 84
This is a working-class district in St Lucie County that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 but swung back to the left in 2018; voting for Gillum and Nelson by 3%. Democrat Delores Hogan Johnson was able to hold the seat for the party in 2018 by a nearly identical 3%.
Republican nominee Dana Trabulsy has raised $80,000 and has some party backing. Johnson has raised $86,000 so far.
House District 114
District 114, located in midsouth Miami-Dade, has had a contentious electoral history. The seat was the subject of close races as Democrats tried and failed to win the seat in 2012 and 2014 – with Democrats finally taking the district in 2016. Democrat Daisey Baez won a close race in 2016 the same night Clinton won the seat by 14 points. The seat is over 65% Hispanic, and overall around 40% Cuban. The ticket-splitting nature of Cuban voters is seen in the fact that Rubio won the seat by 5 points and Obama and Crist only won it by 1. When Baez was forced to resign due to perjury, a special election was triggered in early 2018. Republicans made a strong push to take back the seat and were aided by specials being absentee, and hence older-Cuban, heavy. However, democrat recruit Javier Fernandez wound up pulling a solid 4 point win. Fernandez would go on to win a full term by 6% in the regular November election. That same say Gillum won the district by 5% and Nelson by 7%.
Fernandez is now running for state senate. Democratic attorney Jean-Pierre Bado won a Democratic primary in August and faces off against Republican Demi Busatta Cabrera; the former Chief of Staff to State Senator Anitere Flores. Bado has raised around $150,000 while Cabrera has brought in $160,000. Overall the district leans Democratic, but its not a lock for Democrats and could hinge on how the district’s northern Cuban precincts swing. If Fernandez was running then this would likely be ranked as “likely democratic.” Since the seat is open, I’m sticking with a more cautious “lean.”
Likely Republican Districts
This district covers southern Volusia County, including the city of Dalton. The seat is home to a large white, working-class population and swung from Obama winning it 50-48 to Trump winning it 54-42. The district moved back a bit to the left in 2018; but was till voting GOP by 8% to 9%. This GOP edge aside, there is an aggressive campaign going on for this open district. Webster Barnaby won a 3-way GOP primary while Democrat Dolores Guzman was the only D to file. Barnaby has raised over $180,000 but had to spend much of it in the primary. Guzman has raised $80,000 and Forward Majority is targeting the district and giving her air cover. Guzman has also been endorsed by the popular independent Volusia Sheriff. Democratic interests are clearly investing in the race, but this is still a bit of a stretch; however a shock result in a big Biden win can’t be ruled out. So we will give it a Likely GOP ranking.
House District 41
Located in eastern Polk County and overlapping with the city of Winter Haven, this is a modestly Republican district that backed Trump and DeSantis by 5%. While the seat is overall GOP-favored, it has gotten attention from Democratic groups aiming to expand the legislative map. Democratic candidate Jared West has raised just under $60,000 and is getting air cover from the Forward Majority PAC. Republican incumbent Sam Killebrew, meanwhile, is a weak fundraiser who has only taken in $75,000 and resorted to another $50,000 in a personal loan. The race has gotten nasty too, as Killebrew has been accused of using sneaky homophobic digs at his openly-gay challenger and has been taking to task for anti-Muslim posts. This is a race worth keeping an eye on, especially if the Winter Haven suburbs swing further left. However, the GOP maintains an advantage, as Democrats have not won a Polk state house seat in a long time.
House District 58
Republicans should be favored in this modestly conservative but diversifying district. Representing the more GOP-friendly northeast end of Hillsborough county; the district does have a growing Democratic base in Temple Terrace while Republicans have been stronger in the more sparsely populated areas as well as Plant City. Trump won the seat 53-43 and DeSantis won it 53-46 in the Gubernatorial election. Republican Incumbent Lawrence McClure won a 2017 special election (maps) and has held the seat since. Despite being modestly Republican, Democratic groups have an eye on the district. Nominee CL Townsend has raised around $90,000 and Forward Majority PAC is running ads in the district. McClure, meanwhile, has raised $200,000. Overall the GOP should hold this district baring a big Biden wave in Hillsborough, but its not out of the realm of possibility for a shock flip.
House District 67
On paper HD67, located in east-central Pinellas, should be more competitive. The district voted for Trump by 4% but then for Nelson by 2% in 2018; while DeSantis edged Gillum by just a handful of votes. However, the seat is held by Chris Latvala; son of the former State Senator and a powerful name in the region. As a result, Democrats do not focus as much on the district. Democratic nominee Dawn Douglas has not even cracked $10,000 while Latvala has topped $250,000. Forward Majority is targeting the district for Democrats, but this seat is very likely to remain in the Latvala camp.
House District 83
Located in southern St Lucie County and part of north Martin County, this working class district swung heavily to Donald Trump in 2016. The district voted for Trump by 9% as the Republican flipped St Lucie to his party. However, 2018 saw the county flip back to Democrats and the 83rd was +2 for Rick Scott and +3 for Gillum. Hoping that Biden can take the district, Forward Majority is aiming to flip the seat and is investing in Democrat Edgar Bernier; who has raised $40,000. Republican incumbent Toby Overdorf has raised $140,000.
House District 85
District 85, located in north Palm Beach, as long been a modestly Republican district. The seat covers the wealthy northern communities of the county; including Palm Beach Gardens and Juno Beach. The area is high income and also highly educated. The district voted for Trump by 8% and DeSantis by 6%. While we have no polling for this district; other polls have shown major problems for Trump in this upper-income, higher-educated districts. Republican Incumbent Rick Roth has raised $170,000 while Democratic challenger Jim Carroll has raised $60,000 and loaned another $50,000.
House District 110
This Cuban-heavy district flipped to Clinton in 2016; backing her by a 7% margin despite voting for Marco Rubio by 15 point. In 2018, like many Cuban-heavy seats, the district swung to the right; backing DeSantis and Scott by 10% each. This open seat, being left by outgoing Speaker Jose Oliva, would not normally be a likely Democratic target. However, democratic candidate Annette Collazo, however, has raised over $175,000 in her bid for the seat. Republican candidate Alex Rizo, having only raised $130,000, has also loaned his campaign another 25k. In addition, Forward Majority is spending in the district to try and flip the seat. Overall the district’s ancestral Republican roots and the unclear data point of how Biden will do in the district give the GOP a clear advantage. However, this is at least a race worth keeping an eye on.
House District 119
House district 119 is a majority-Hispanic seat located in middle Miami-Dade around the Kendall West community. The district’s Cuban population is more concentrated on its Northern end. The shift of Cubans toward Clinton allowed he to take the district 55-42 while Rubio won the district 55-43. In 2018, the district swung hard to the right, voting for Scott by 2% and DeSantis by 3%. How the seat votes in 2020 will depend on a host of factors; from Cuban support for Biden to turnout among the non-exile Cuban community. Republican incumbent Juan Fernandez-Barquin has raised over $200,000
Likely Democratic Districts
House District 30
Democrats picked up HD 30 in 2018 when Maitland councilwoman Joy Goff-Marcil knocked off Incumbent Bob Cortes. The district, based out of southern Seminole and north Orange, it is largely a suburban seat but also 17% Hispanic and 13% black. The seat has been moving more to the left with each cycle; with Clinton winning it by 8% and Gillum by 12%. Goff-Marcil’s win was a major upset over a strong incumbent.
2020 is featuring a rematch between Cortes and Goff-Marcil. The democrat has raised $76,000 while Cortes has raked in $170,000. However, Cortes still lags in money compared to 2018 and dominated in money that year when he lost. The district has also become more Democratic since 2018, with Democrats expanding their voter registration margin from 38%-33% to 39%-31%. While Cortes is the strongest Republican to challenge for the seat, the district is unlikely to vote Republican.
House District 44
District 44, which is a majority-white district based out of southwestern Orange County. The district covers suburban communities that surround Disneyworld and the the assorted parks and resorts. The district, one of the most educated in the state, swung heavily away from Trump; backing Clinton 51-44 after voting for Romney by a 53-46 margin. It remained Democratic in 2018’s midterms; voting for Gillum by over 7% and saw Geraldine Thompson, a former state rep from northern Orlando, knock off Republican State Rep Robert Olszewski
For her 2020 re-election, Thompson has raised $130,000 while Republican Bruno Portigliatti has brought in $180,000. But the district has only continued to move left. Between 2018 and 2020 the GOP went from a 1.8% GOP registration advantage to a 1.5% Democratic advantage. With Biden expected to win the district by a solid margin, Thompson has a solid advantage.
House District 69
Based in southwestern Pinellas, this 51-47 Obama district swung modestly to Trump in 2016; giving the Republican a 49-46 win thanks to white, working class voters as well as strong GOP shares along the coastal towns. Democrat Jennifer Webb flipped this district to Democrats 2018; winning a district 5 points; nearly the same margin Bill Nelson won it by while improving on Gillum’s 1.7% win margin.
With Biden expected to do much better in Pinellas County this go around, Webb is a solid favorite for re-election. She has raised nearly $300,000 while Republican Linda Chaney only has $50,000 and some modest GOP support. An early September poll gave Webb a 7 point lead; with her just under 50%.
House District 103
This 80% Hispanic and 10% black district starts in Miramar (in Broward County) and dips straight into historic Hialeah (in Miami-Dade). This district has trended further to left but remained GOP down-ballot despite recent democratic efforts. Trump’s historic unpopularity with Cuban voters resulted him losing the district 58-39 the same day Marco Rubio won the district 51-47. One notable factor about the district is that its Miramar portion, which has a large African-American population, is heavily Democratic regardless of race or candidate. The Dade portion, which is Hispanic and heavily Cuban, is the GOP portion. When the seat came open in 2018, Democrat Cindy Polo had a solid 7% win in an expensive race that was a high priority the GOP to hold. Gillum won the district by 7% that same day.
Heading into 2020, Polo is a favorite for re-election. She has raised $126,000 while Republican Tom Fabricio has raised just over $100,000. While Republicans haven’t given up on the district, the talk of taking it back is not as severe as it was a year ago.
Safe Democratic House Seats
HD9 — Covering the white suburbs of Tallahassee and the FSU campus, HD9 is a modest, but consistently Democratic district. The district voted for Clinton and Gillum by 9% and 10% respectively. Representative Loranne Ausley is running for Senate District 3 and former Florida Democratic Party Chair Allison Tant is running as the Democratic nominee. Tant has raised a massive war-chest that tops $500,000 for her run. Her Republic opponent is Jim Kallinger, a former state representative from central Florida with a very socially conservative record. Kallinger filed last minute and has only raised a $25,000. The FL GOP did some in-kind mail for him going after Tant, but it was a drop in the bucket and with Trump sure to lose the district and Tant’s strong campaign, this race is safe Democratic.
HD47 — Progressive activists Anna Eskamani flipped this suburban, majority-white district located in the heart of Orlando. Eskamani’s aggressive and well-financed campaign resulted in a 15% win despite heavy GOP spending to hold the seat. The district backed Clinton by 11%, and moved further left, giving Gillum and Nelson 17 point wins. The district continues to move further left, with Democrats increasing their registration advantage to a near 9 point gap over the Republicans. Eskamani has already raised $280,000 while Republican Jeremy Sisson is at $40,000. This district has fallen off Republican targets fast.
HD48 — Incumbent Amy Mercado left her dark blue, majority Hipsanic house seat to successfully run for Orange County Property Appraiser. Daisy Morales won a crowded Democratic primary for this south-Orange seat; which backed Clinton with 70% of the vote. Republican Jesus Martinez has raised little money; besides $10,000 from the FL GOP.
HD49 — Democrat Carlos Guillermo Smith’s seat is plurality white with a large Hispanic minority. It covers University of Central Florida in Orange County. Smith won the seat in 2016 after the Republicans made a surprise win of it in 2014 thanks to a sleeping Democratic incumbent. Since then the seat has moved further to the left, giving Clinton a 27% margin and Gillum a 30% win. Republican Robert Prater has brought in $30,000 (including 10K for the party), which isn’t far from Smith’s $70,000. But this is still a race where no Republican has a real shot at the seat.
HD62 — This is a majority-Hispanic district located in Western Tampa. It is a deep blue seat, voting for Hillary Clinton by 30 points. Democratic Incumbent Susan Valdes has underfunded opposition from Republican Angel Urbina Capo.
HD62 — This district, which covers southeast Pinellas, has become more steadfast Democratic since its creation in 2012. Even as Donald Trump flipped Pinellas in 2016. he still lost this district by 6 points. In the 2018 midterms, the seat remained Democratic by over 10% margins. Incumbent Ben Diamond, who is slated to become a future House Democrats leader, is a lock for re-election against Republican Matt Tito, who has only raised $35,000 to Diamond’s $340,000.
HD81 — This seat covers some southwestern suburbs of Palm Beach as well as the communities that dot the southeast edge of Lake Okeechobee. Former State Rep Kelly Skidmore won a brutal primary for this open seat and will have little issue in the general. The district is on average Democratic by 20% margins. Republican Saulis Banionis has raised little beyond a 10K donation from Florida Republicans.
HD86 — Democrat Matt Willhite sits in this 60% white and solidly Democratic seat, which is based out of Wellington in Palm Beach County. The district has never been on radar for Republican and in 2016 backed Clinton by 15 points. Republican challenger Susan Kufdakis Rivera hasn’t topped $10,000 while Willhite has taken in over $90,000.
HD87 — Democrat David Silvers, a white democrat, sits in this majority-Hispanic seat located in the heart of Palm Beach County. At just 50% white, Hispanics make a majority. However, due to weaker voter turnout and weaker registration rates, the district is more white in voters. Silvers won this open seat in 2016 while Clinton was winning it by 33 points. Silvers’ Republican opponent is Herb Sennett, who has raised little but did get $10,000 from the Republican Party of Florida. It won’t help.
HD88 — This snake-like district connects African-American voters across Palm Beach County. It is majority-black and nearly 80% Democratic. It was host to a nasty primary, which saw Incumbent Al Jacquet lose re-nomination to Lake Worth Beach commissioner Omari Hardy. Jacquet was under fire for a string campaign finance issue and multiple homophobic statements. Hardy will easily win against Republican Danielle Madsen.
HD90 — Located in central Palm Beach County and overlapping with Boyton Beach and Greenacres; Democrat Joseph Casello is a lock to win this 60%+ Democratic seat. His Republican opponent, Lydia Maldonado, has not cracked $10,000 in fundraising.
HD91 — This inland Palm Beach seat covers portions of the Boca Raton and Boynton Beach. It is represented by Emily Slosberg; who won the seat when her father ran state Senate in 2016. Slosberg is a lock to win the general against Republican Sayd Hussain. The district is on average 60% Democratic.
HD92 — This African-American plurality district is nestled in North Broward county and overlaps with the cities of Deerfield and Pompano Beach. Democratic Incumbent Patricia Hawkins-Williams will easily win this deep-blue district against NPA candidate Nancy St. Clair.
HD101 — This is a plurality-black district located in SE Broward; covering parts of Hollywood, Pembroke Pines, Miramar, West Park, Pembroke Park, and Hallandale Beach. Marie Woodson won a democratic primary in August to replace outgoing State Rep Shevrin Jones. Republican Vincent Parlatore has zero chance in this 70%+ Democratic district and has barely raised any money.
HD104 — This district covers portions of western Broward; covering Weston, Southwest Ranches, and Pembroke Pines. It is a solidly Democratic seat, voting blue by 20%+ margins. School Board member Robin Bartleman easily won a democratic primary to replace Richard Stark; who is running for Weston Mayor. Republican George Navarini hasn’t run much of a campaign, taking in little fundraising.
HD112 — Since this district was created in 2012, the seat has been home to major electoral fights. The seat is a 70% Hispanic district based out of Southern Miami, Coral Gables, and Key Biscayne. The district is 35% Cuban, creating the well-known scenario were Democrats perform better at the top of the ticket (against white Republicans) but Hispanic Republicans do better down-ballot. José Javier Rodríguez (JJR) won the seat in 2012, defeating former State Senator Alex Diaz de la Portilla in a nasty, close, and expensive fight. He faced a serious challenge in the 2014 red wave but held in 51-49. In 2016, JJR ran for State Senate and Democrat Nicholas X. Duran won the open seat 53-47. Republicans made efforts in all three of these races but came up short. Clinton won this election by 13% and then Gillum held it by 5%. Doran is safe for re-election, with the GOP effectively conceding the seat to the Democrats. Doran has raised $200,000 while former commissioner Bruno Barreiro has only cracked $50,000. Despite his longtime county commissioner role, money has not been flowing into the race.
Safe Republican House Seats
HD1 — This district, located in northern Escambia County, routinely votes over 60% for GOP candidates. Democrats have not made a serious play for this district in decades. Controversial Republicans incumbent Mike Hill lost a bitter primary to Michelle Salzman. Democrat Franscine Mathis is a sacrificial lamb, having only raised $2,500. Salzman has taken in over $70,000 post-primary.
HD2 — This race almost got a “Likely R” rating from me. Located in South Pensacola and including part of coastal Santa Rosa; Democrat Dianne Krumel has run an aggressive campaign against incumbent Republican Alex Andrade for this house seat. Krumel and her supports have generated plenty of coverage in recent years for battles over development on the Pensacola Beach. Andrade, meanwhile, was involved in a nasty and expensive primary against former Congressional candidate Cris Dosev. Krumel has raised $60,000 while Andrade has only taken in $20,000 since the primary. That said, Andrade has raised over $250,000 through the duration of the campaign. The problem for Krumel is the district gave Trump a 17% win and DeSantis a 13% win. There’s just is not enough ticket splitting or further left-wing movement. The GOP also holds a 44-33 registration advantage. There is actually an argument to be made the Escambia districts are gerrymandered, as they split the African-American community of Pensacola. Under these lines, Democratic hopes in the area are just a bit too far out of reach.
HD3 — This is one of the most GOP districts in the state. Base out of Santa Rosa and northern Okaloosa, the district is over 75% GOP on average. Republican Jayer Williamson is a lock to win against Democrat Angela Hoover; who has raised under $6,000.
HD4 — This dark-red district includes southern Okaloosa County. Includes famous coastal towns like Destin and includes a large military population. The district often votes over 70% Republican. Republican Patt Maney won an expensive and crowded primary in August. He will easily defeat Democrat John Plante; who’s taken in under $10,000.
HD6 — This seat covers most of Bay County – including coastal Panama City. It is dark red, often voting GOP by 50 point margins. Incumbent Jay Trumbull is secured to win re-election against Democrat Alicia Bays.
HD7 — I wrote about House District 7 when they held a special election in 2019. This large seat; coving multiple rural counties that surround Tallahassee, used to be an ancestral Democratic seat. However, the top of the ticket has only grown more steadfast Republican, and the GOP recently overtook Democrats in registration there. 2016 and 2018 statewide contests were all won by Republicans by 30%+. The district also used to be home to many locally elected Democrats, but with each cycle more local councils and offices move to the GOP. Incumbent Jason Shoaf should have little trouble beating first-time Democratic candidate Taymour Khan.
HD10 — This large rural district covers Columbia, Baker, Suwannee, and Hamilton counties. Despite being an old ancestral Democratic area, it is now solidly Republican, giving over 70% of the vote to GOP candidates. GOP candidate Chuck Brannon will easily win over a Democrat Rock Aboujaoude.
HD11 — Democrat Joshua Hicks is the best funded and most qualified candidate for a race that he has no chance to win. District 11 is a deep red seat that includes all of Nassau County and the coastal regions of Duval. It gave Trump 66% of the vote and gave similar shares in the 2018 midterms. Hicks, originally from Tallahassee, has been involved in politics in Tallahassee and DC; now residing in Jacksonville. His connections have allowed him to raise $70,000 against Republican Incumbent Cord Byrd’s $125,000. Byrd is a very conservative politician. His wife, Esther, has made social media comments defending the Proud Boys and Q-anon; and Cord has made no effort to walk back those posts and simply makes the standard “I’m against racism” speech. Unfortunately for Hicks, all this cannot fix the fact the seat he’s running in is dark red. Evan as Duval moves left, the presence of Nassau makes it impossible to go blue.
HD12 — This district, located in eastern Duval, is normally solid 60%+ GOP but gave Trump a more modest 55%-39% win thanks to suburban hesitance. Gillum would narrow the margin further to a 54%-44% margin. That said, incumbent Clay Yarborough is aggressively campaigning and has raised $200,000 to Democrat Emmanuel Blimie’s $10,000.
HD16 — Located in southern Duval, on the St Johns County border, this high-educated suburban district has seen a swing away from Trump. Republicans normally got 65%+ in the seat, but Trump’s only took 56% – and DeSantis got the same share. Despite suburban resistance to Trump, the district remains solidly GOP. Republican Incumbent Jason Fischer has raised $214,000 to Democrat Ben Marcus’ $64,000. In addition, Fischer’s “Conservative Solutions for Jacksonville” committee has raked in hundreds of thousands more. Marcus has run aggressively, going after Fischer and his ties to Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry. The margin will be interesting here but there is little doubt Fischer will win.
HD17 — This district covers northern St Johns county and includes historic St Augustine. It is a 65%+ GOP seat. Republican Incumbent Cyndi Stevenson will easily win over Democratic challenger Dave Rogers.
HD18 — This district represents north Clay County; which includes some upper-income suburbs of Jacksonville. The district also includes many rural communities and is deep red; giving Republicans over 65%. The seat is open and Republican Sam Garrison is going to walk into the seat against Democrat Leroy Anthony Edwards.
HD19 – This large, rural district – covering Putnam, southern Clay, Bradford, and Union – is over 70% Republican. Incumbent Bobby Payne will easily beat democrat Kimberly Dugger.
HD22 — Covering all of Levy County and Southwestern Marion, this district is a solid 60%+ GOP seat. The seat was open this year and Republican Joe Harding won the August primary and will beat Democrat Barbara Byram with ease.
HD23 — This district is eastern Marion is often over 60% GOP and Incumbent Stan McClain will easily win over Democrat Cynthia Dela Rosa. The race has been a low-money affair, with McClain taking in just 50K and Rosa taking in 10K. This lack of funds really just reflects how much of a non-starter the race is.
HD24 — This seat includes western Volusia County, Flagler County, and southern St Johns County. Its around 60% GOP on average and Incumbent Paul Renner should easily win over Democrat Adam Morley. Renner is scheduled to become Florida House speaker after the 2022 elections, assuming the GOP retains its majority.
HD25 — This district covers coastal parts of Volusia county and in general is a modest GOP district. Romney took 55% of the district, which Trump improved to 58% thanks to strength with white working class voters. These margins largely held in the 2018 elections for Governor and Senator. Incumbent Tom Leek should have little issue with re-election, as Democrat Sarah Zutter’s has only raised $6,500.
HD31 — Located in eastern Lake County and a small part of Orange, this district is steadily GOP, with Republican candidates normally getting around 58% support. Incumbent Jennifer Sullivan is termed out and the GOP nominee is Keith Truenow. He faces Mount Dora councilwoman Crissy Stile. The democrat has raised decent money, $60,000, while Trunow $150,000 haul is most pre-primary. Stile appears to be a great candidate, but the district is doesn’t demonstrate a good deal of elasticity. The seat remains safe for the GOP.
HD32 — However, this southern Lake County district is stubbornly inelastic; with Trump, Scott, and DeSantis all getting 55-56% of the vote. This seat almost got a Likely GOP rankings. Republicans Anthony Sabatini is one of the all-time jackass politicians of Florida. Sabatini has a rough reputation and doesn’t make friends easily. He has battled with fellow Republicans, similar to a Ted Cruz style, and made national headlines for welcoming Confederate Monuments to the city of Eustis when he was a commissioner. Sabatini got tagged with a blackface scandal over a year ago, and has spent much of 2020 suing different cities and counties over mask mandates. Republican leadership consider him a joke. As a result, the GOP fundraising network is not helping him. He’s only raised $55,000. However, despite his bombastic style, there just does not appear to be enough movement among these generally conservative suburban and rural voters to make the district come into play. Democrat Stephanie Dukes has not cracked $15,000.
HD33 – This open seat includes all of Sumter County, small parts of southern Marion, and parts of northern Lake County. It is heavily influence by the Villages – a large GOP-strong retirement community that is growing every year and includes 10s of thousands of people. The community is rapidly growing and continues to be a destination for GOP-leaning retirees (countered by democrat-strong retiree areas in South Florida). The seat is solidly GOP – with Trump taking 68%, 2 points better than Romney’s 66%. Trump’s improvement was actually fueled by rural Sumter gains and he actually did very slightly worse than Romney did in the Villages themselves. Republican Brett Hage is a lock for re-election against Democrat Mamie “Dee” Melvin.
HD34 — Covering all of Citrus and part of Western Hernando, this district saw a large swing from Romney to Trump, who took 68% of the vote. This swing largely held in 2018, with statewide Republicans averaging around 67%. Incumbent Ralph Massullo will have no trouble beating Dushyant Jethagir Gosai, who hasn’t cracked $5,000 raised..
HD35 — This district includes the rest of Hernando County (not taken by 34) and is held by former RPOF Chairman Blaise Ingoglia. The district took a swing to the right in 2016, backing Trump 61-34 after only going for Romney by a 53%-45% margin. 2018 saw the statewide Republicans hold similar 60% shares. Ingoglia is a lock against Democrat Keith Laufenberg, who has barely raised any money.
HD36 — Republicans only gained one district from Democrats in 2016, HD36; which covers all of the Pasco County coast. Democrat Amanda Murphy endured an upset against Amber Mariano, a then-21 year old daughter of a Pasco County commission. Mariano benefited from her father’s political network, the districts massive swing toward Donald Trump, and Murphy not taking the race seriously enough. Murphy actually lost the district by 1% while still holding $40,000 in the bank. The swing toward Trump was the largest in the state – going from Obama winning it 52-46 to Trump taking it 57-37. The latest poll show Mariano up by double digits, but Trump is notably only up 10% vs is 20% margin in 2016.
HD37 — Located in central Pasco, HD37 is a solid GOP seat, giving Republicans around 60%. Republicans incumbent Ardian Zika has raised well over six figures against underfunded Democrat Tammy Garcia.
HD38 — Based out of eastern Pasco, incumbent Randy Maggard is safe in the modesty, but steadily, GOP seat. Republicans often pull around 55%-60% and Democrats really don’t come close to closing the gap. Maggard sits on $95,000 raised while democrat Brian Staver hasn’t cracked $10,000.
HD39 — This district, located in northern Polk County was won by Republican Josie Tomkow in an early 2018 special election. She’d gone on to easily hold the seat that November. The district voted for Trump by just under 20 points and while it moved a bit to left in 2018, it was still 16 points GOP or more. Democratic challenger Chris Cause has raised $13,000, which is just not enough to make the seat competitive.
HD40 – This seat covers Lakeland and its surrounding population – a nice compact seat nestles in Polk County. Its a modestly GOP seat, with Republicans getting low to mid 50s. Trump won it 54-41 and the seat maintained a steady GOP 12% margin in 2018. Incumbent Republican Colleen Burton has raised $224,000. Democrat Jan Barrow has run a strong campaign and made COVID response a major issue. She has raised $35,000. The district is too inelastic, however, to be completely on the radar.
HD51 — Covering Kennedy Space Center, this district covers most of Northeastern Brevard County. Its a fairly GOP seat with Republicans polling about 55%+ in most instances. Republican Incumbent Tyler Sirois has raised $116,000 while Democrat Joan Marie Majid has taken in just under $20,000.
HD52 — Former State Senator Thad Altman won this House seat, located in middle Brevard County, in 2016. In both the 2016, 2018, and 2020 GOP primaries, he faced challenges from the right. Altman has always been a thorn in the side of GOP leaders and while he’s steadily conservative, he does have some moderate credentials that have upset activists. He is also not known as a fierce campaigner. The seat often gives Republicans just under 60% of the vote. Democrat Lloyd Dabbs has raised just over $20,000. Atman, meanwhile, has barely raised anything for the general, spending around 50 of the $70,000 he raised in the primary. Altman’s weak campaign style could put him in danger if he wasn’t in a district and county that is still pretty steadily to the right.
HD53 — This south-Brevard district voted for Donald Trump 53-42 and should be no problem for Incumbent Randy Fine. Democratic candidate Phil Moore has only raised $20,000 and lost to Fine by 10% in the 2018 midterm.
HD54 — Covering all of Indian River and part of north St Lucie, this district votes Republican by 20% margins. The race hasn’t been much of a money affair, as Democrat Albert Griffiths has only raised $17,000; which includes a $10,000 check from the Indian River Democratic Party. Republican Incumbent Erin Grall has raised $70,000.
HD55 — This rural central-Florida seat covers Okeechobee, Highlands, and Glades county. It is very conservative, backing Republicans with over 60% and shows little appetite for electing Democrats. Kaylee Tuck won a heavily contested primary for this open seat and will have no trouble holding the seat against Democrat Linda Tripp.
HD56 — This rural seat covers DeSoto, Hardee, and part of southern Polk county. Republican incumbent Melony Bell won a crazy primary in 2018; which featured lawsuits over write-ins and a rare primary held in the November general. This year the race is much quieter, and Bell will have no trouble defeating underfunded Democrat James Davis in November.
HD57 — Located in southeastern Hillsborough, a much more conservative part of the otherwise-blue county, HD57 gave Trump 54% of the vote in 2016, and gave DeSantis and Scott right around 53%. Despite being fairly close, the dynamics of the race don’t point to a competitive contest. Democratic nominee Scott Hottenstein has raised a respectable $33,000. Republican Incumbent Mike Beltran has taken in $180,000.
HD65 — Based in northwestern Pinellas County, the most Republican region of the county, Incumbent Chris Sprowls is safe from Democrats. The seat backed Trump 54-40 and DeSantis 54-44. Democrat Kelly Johnson has only raised $15,000 while Sprowls has raised over $270,000.
HD66 — Based in central/western Pinellas County, this seat is a modest GOP district. It backed Trump 54-40 and was over 10 points Republican in the 2018 midterm. Freshman Republican Nick DiCeglie has raised over $190,000 while Democrat Patricia Plantamura hasn’t cracked $20,000.
HD71 — This open seat covers western Manatee county and its coast. It is a modest GOP district that gives GOP candidates between 50-55% of the vote on average. Trump won the district by 11% while DeSantis and Scott won it by 9%. The district isn’t deep red, but Democrat Andy Mele has only been able to bring in $20,000 while Republican Incumbent Will Robinson sits on $200,000.
HD73 — Covering eastern Manatee and Sarasota, this 60% Trump district only barely nudged left in 2018. Republican incumbent Tommy Gregory has raised over $170,000. Democrat David Reeves Fairey has raised a solid $35,000, but it won’t be enough to put the seat in play.
HD74 — This seat, covering southern Sarasota County, gave Trump a 59-36 and remained steadily GOP in the 2018 midterms. It is occupied by Republican James Buchanan; son of the Florida congressman. After losing a contentious special election for HD72, he opted to run for the much redder 74th. He has little trouble winning the seat and will be secure against underfunded Democrat Lisa Stortstrom; who has only raised $7,000.
HD75 — District 75 is the same border as Charlotte County; which gave Donald Trump a solid 62% of the vote. Republican Michael Grant has raised $100,000 while Democrat David Jones has brought in just under $30,000. The money gap isn’t as severe as other “safe” seats – but the district is just too red to give Democrats a real shot at the district.
HD76 — Covering coastal Lee County, this district is steadfast GOP. Trump’s 61% was down from Romney’s 64%, but this is still far out of the range for democrats. Adam Botana won a contested GOP primary for this open seat and will have little trouble against an underfunded Democratic challenger in Anselm Weber.
HD77 — Covering Cape Coral in Lee County, this district is steadfast GOP; giving Trump over 60% of the vote. Republican Mike Giallombardo is a lock for this district, having won an expensive GOP primary. Democrat Joshua Lopez has not cracked $10,000 in fundraising.
HD78 — The least Republican Lee County district. This seat covers Fort Meyers and backed Trump 53-42. Incumbent Heather Fitzenhagen is termed out and Jenna Persons won a GOP primary to replace her. While Persons has taken in nearly $300,000, Democrat Shawn Michael Williams has only taken in $12,000.
HD79 — Incumbent Republican Spencer Roach will have little trouble winning re-election in this 56% Trump district. Roach has brought in over $175,000 to Democrat Danika Fornear’s $6,000.
HD80 — This seat covers all of rural Hendry County and the northern portions of Collier. It is heavily dominated by agriculture and is a mixture of conservative whites and Hispanics. Census figures say the district is 33% Hispanic – however that includes migrant workers who cannot vote. The district is also home to Ave Mario – a planned community in Collier County that was founded by the founder of Dominoes Pizza. The town centers around Ave Maria University – a private catholic college. The district backed Trump with 59% and gave 2018 Republicans 60%. Lauren Uhlich Melo is the Republican nominee; having spent $120,000 to get through a primary and raising little for the general. Democrat Laura Novosad has only raised $13,000.
HD82 — Based in Martin County and the city of Jupiter in Palm Beach County, this district is steadfast Republican. Martin County rarely votes Democrat (Patrick Murphy’s 2014 blowout re-election for FL 18 stands out) and normally gives GOP candidates close to 60% of the vote. Republican John Snyder won an expensive three-way primary and will have little trouble defeating Democrat Elisa Edwards Ackerly, who has only raised just over $10,000 to Snyder’s $216,000.
HD106 — The most conservative seat in South Florida, this district encompasses all of coastal Collier County, including all of Naples. The district saw a large swing away from Trump as educated, suburban voters rejected the controversial candidate. Despite the shift, the district still backed Trump 63-33 while it had backed Romney 68-31 in 2012. The district moved back to the right in 2018; giving most statewide Republicans on average 67%. Incumbent Bob Rommel faces off against Democratic challenger Sara McFadden, who he beat by 30% in 2018. McFadden has put in $50,000 of her own money for this bid, after putting in $100,000 in 2018, but it won’t make a difference. Rommel sits on just under $200,000 raised.
HD111 — This majority-Cuban district in the heart of Dade. Trump’s historically-low showing with the normally-GOP Cuban population lead to him losing the district 52-45. However, the district voted for Rubio over Murphy by a 57-41, margin that same day. It swung to the right in 2018, giving DeSantis and Scott 13% wins. Republican Incumbent Bryan Avila will have no trouble in re-election against Democrat Ross Elde Hancock, who has barely raised any money.
HD116 — This is a majority-Cuban district in the heart of Dade. Trump’s historically-low showing with the normally-GOP Cuban population lead to him losing the district 51-45. However, the district voted for Rubio over Murphy by a 57-41, margin that same day. In 2018 it was DeSantis +10 I’d venture Biden may not hold the seat in a few weeks. Republican Incumbent Daniel Perez has a nasty and expensive GOP primary filled with plenty of drama. Democrat Bob Lynch, meanwhile, has been subject to news reports about sexist and racist comments.
HD119 — House district 119 is a majority-Hispanic seat located in middle Miami-Dade around the Kendall West community. The district’s Cuban population is more concentrated on its Northern end. The shift of Cubans toward Clinton allowed he to take the district 55-42 while Rubio won the district 55-43. In 2018, the district swung hard to the right, voting for Scott by 2% and DeSantis by 3%. How the seat votes in 2020 will depend on a host of factors; from Cuban support for Biden to turnout among the non-exile Cuban community. Republican incumbent Juan Fernandez-Barquin has raised over $200,000 while Democrat Imtiaz Ahmad Mohammad hasn’t gotten past $10,000. With the ticket’s strong ticket-splitting history, this seat will remain Republican.
Conclusion
Democrats have many opportunities to make gains and I would venture are favored to net some seats. By far their toughest holds are 59 and 72, but they also have multiple pickup opportunities as well. I’d venture that if Democrats to not emerge with some net seats, then things have gone dramatically wrong for them. That said, the chamber itself is SAFE GOP, despite the fact less than 60 seats are considered SAFE for the GOP individually. However, the reality is a Democratic sweep of their seats, the GOP tossups, and some additional seats, is extremely unlikely. Democrats cannot win chamber, but they can make gains.
