Its Monday night here and the Florida Primary season is about to wrap up! A few days ago I published my Congressional Primary Preview. My final article before the election day polls open is this look at the State Legislative primaries. With no time to wait, lets dive in.
State Senate
Every two years in Florida, half the State Senate seats are up for re-election. This year, the even-numbered districts are holidng their races. You can see the partisan leaning of those districts below.
A handful of districts will be the site of major general election fights in November. Democrats are looking closest at Senate Districts 10 and 38 to flip; while defending 14 and 26.
On the primary front, we honestly only have a handful of notable primary campaigns. Democrats have one really nasty and expensive primary and a few quieter races. Republicans have no serious primaries of note. That said, I am going to look at EVERY State Senate Primary. In total, just seven seats have primaries.
Lets dig in.
State Senate 10 Democratic Primary
State Senate District 10 is one of the prime Democratic targets for flipping this year. The seat, which covers Seminole County and a bit of northern Orange, voted for Biden in 2020. Even as it swung to the right in 2024, it only backed Trump by 1%. Democrats are aiming to oust State Senator Jason Brodeur, who was elected to the seat in 2020.
The democratic primary here is really more of a formality. Democrats recruited Maitland Mayor John Lowndes to run for the seat. Lowndes, who has served as an attorney for a medical/health non-profit based in Anchorage, the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, has made expanding Medicaid a point of his candidacy. He’s also gone after Senator Brodeur for his alliance with developers who want to weaken Seminole County’s rural boundary; which is designed to protect green spaces. Lowndes jumped into this race on June 1st, a late start, and has raised $70,000. Expect far more money, either to his campaign or to outside committees, to come in as the general heats up.
As for the primary, Lowndes faces H. Alexander Duncan, a consultant who has relied largely on a $3,000 campaign loan. While Duncan is campaigning, there is no real sense this won’t be a firm Lowndes victory.
State Senate 16 Democratic Primary
By far the most expensive and contentious State Senate primary this year is the Democratic race for Senate District 16. This seat, which backed Kamala Harris by 25%, is being left open by Senator Darryl Rouson. The seat stretches from St Pete in Pinellas county and crosses the Tampa Bay to connect Tampa and other parts of Hillsborough.
The seat is initially drawn to connect Black voters across the waterway; with it historically performing as a Black-access seat since 1992. This fact is thanks to the Democratic Primary being the main contest in the seat. Democratic registration is around 46% Black compared to 34% white; and previous Democratic primaries have been majority-Black. Below you can see a table showing the racial breakdown of voters by their respective party; including registration and frequent voters.
A traditional closed Democratic primary would be majority or close to majority-Black. That is why Republican map-drawers have insisted on the district’s crossing of the water; claiming such a move is needed to preserve the district’s nature as a Black-access seat. However, as I wrote about in February of this year, the crossing of the water is actually not needed; and a district with a similar demographic layout could exist entirely within Hillsborough County. However, and I get into this in the article, I believe the real reason for the layout is because Republicans want to pack in Democratic voters in Pinellas and keep them out of neighboring districts.
The Democratic Primary is actually open to all voters this year, meaning the vote cast will be notably whiter than a closed primary would be. This is because only Democrats filed for the seat, and hence Republicans and Independents have the right to make their choice in such a contest. That said, Democrats will make up a solid majority of the vote. That contest is behind waged between two state house democrats: Fentrice Driskell and Michele Rayner.
While both Representatives have similar voting records in the legislature, there is a great deal of contrast between the two. As the map above shows, Rayner has much stronger crossover with the district; with her HD62 connecting into both counties. Driskell, meanwhile, represents little of the seat. However, Driskell does have modest name Id in the Tampa area, even outsider her district, thanks to be the House Democratic leader. This has allowed Driskell to lead the fundraising fight for the district; raising $300,000 in her main campaign committee and several hundred thousand more via a secondary committee.
Rayner represents the more progressive and grassroots side of the party. However, as an attorney and longtime house member, she has as decent haul in money; raising $100,000 in her main account and over $100,000 more in a secondary committee. Rayner made history in 2020 with her election; becoming the first openly LGBT woman of color elected to the state house.
The race offers a contrast in styles and has been plenty heated. Driskell has claimed the mantle of being a policy-detailed lawmaker who can makes deals and shepard legilsation. Rayner has highlighted his own legislative successes while also campaigned against power of money in politics and argued Driskell is too cozy with powerful Florida interests. The race got especially nasty in the last few weeks; which saw mailers claiming Rayner was a right-wing Republican in disguise showing up in mailboxes. This mailer, and a litany of other attacks on Rayner, have come from third-party political committees that appear tied to AI data centers; likely a reflection of Rayner’s open call for a moratorium on such centers. It has been noted that several of the donors to these committees have also donated to Driskell’s campaign, which has come under increasing scrutiny for the possibility her backers are behind the attacks. Driskell notably has not been as firm on data center moratoriums, and reporter investigations have pointed to a clear picture that AI companies and those tied with META, the Facebook parent company, have been steering support and funding for Driskell’s campaign.
With the primary coming to an end, the question is how the attacks of the last few weeks will play out. The increasing coverage of AI companies and META wanting Driskell will absolutely hurt her with Democratic voters. However, some of these investigations are coming late and voters may not know all the details. We will know very soon how the voters have or have not responded to these developments. With the primary being open, its also possible Driskell takes Republican voters, but how many of them actually cast a ballot for this race remains to be seen.
State Senate 18 Democratic Primary
Two democrats are running to take on Republican State Senator Nick DiCeglie in this Trump +10 seat. This seat is not a target of state democrats, and both candidates are not serious contenders. Linda Kellis Harris and Karla Kemp have both raised just $2,500 and are not running active campaigns. This is a primary on paper but not in reality.
State Senate 20 Democratic Primary
Two democrats are running to take on Republican State Senator Jim Boyd in this Trump +19 seat. This seat is not a target of state democrats, and both candidates are not serious contenders. Gerald Baldi has raised $2,700 while John Houman has relied entirely on a $2,000 campaign loan. Like the case in District 18, this is a primary on paper but with minimal campaigning.
State Senate 22 Republican Primary
State Senate District 22 is opened up thanks to the retirement of Republican Joe Gruters, who is also the current Republican National Committee chair. This seat, which is based in Sarasota County, voted for Trump by 18%. Despite being an open seat, the primary did not become crowded. State Republicans coalesced around State Representative James Buchanan, the son of outgoing Congressman Vern Buchanan. Initially, James Buchanan came onto the electoral scene in early 2018, where he ran in a special election for a Trump +5 State House seat in Northwest Sarasota County. However, in a major upset, Democrats flipped the seat, defeating Buchanan in the special election Buchanan came back later that same year, running for and winning a redder seat also based in Sarasota County that had a retiring Republican. Now Buchanan looks to advance to the State Senate, and with GOP support he’s raised $280,000 in his official account and well over $1,000,000 via a political committee.
Buchanan’s only Republican opponent is Vic Rohe, who’s raised $15,000. Rohe modest name recognition for his time on the Sarasota Hospital Board, an elected position in the county. Rohe won a crowded 2022 primary on a “medical freedom” slate of candidates who were COVID vaccine skeptics and other right-wing healthcare positions. The initial 2022 election successes saw the right-wing slates lose in 2024; with Rohe even backing away from some more fringe proposals. You can read more on that here. Rohe is leaving the board to run for this seat, saying he is running because no one else would. Its not likely he has any chance. With this, Buchanan will almost surely become the new State Senator for Sarasota.
State Senate 30 Republican Primary
State Senate District 30 is a steadily blue seat that sits in Northwest Broward and a bit of Palm Beach. Even as the district swung to the right in 2024, it still backed Harris by 8%. As a result, Republicans are not putting real effort into it. The real story was the Democratic side, which saw incumbent Tina Polsky opt to retire instead of running for re-election. When this announcement came, former State Senator Lauren Book announced she would run. Book, who served as Senate Democratic leader before term limits forced her to retire in 2024, cleared the primary field and is a lock to win the general.
Book has two Republicans running against her, but neither have raised any real cash. Hector Rivera has raised $5,000 and Jerusa Zitta raised $10,000. Book, meanwhile, sits on $300,000 in her main political committee alone.
State Senate 34 Democratic Primary
Three Democrats are running in the primary for Senate District 34, which is a majority-Black (check) seat located in Northeast Miami-Dade County. The district is being left open by Shevrin Jones, who is running for Congress. The Democratic primary is likely to be 2/3 Black and the seat has a large Caribbean, heavily Haitian, voting population.
Once Senator Jones announced he was leaving the State Senate, State House Democrat Ashley Gantt jumped into the race. Gantt, a former educator and current attorney, became the instant frontrunner for the nomination; receiving endorsements across the Democratic legislative Caucus. She originally was elected to the state House in 2020, ousting a conservative incumbent, James Bush III in a heated and expensive primary.
I documented the saga of that race here. Bush was a very conservative Democrat that often voted with Republicans. Gantt’s primary of him saw her recieve the large majority of Democratic establishment and liberal organization support. Since then Gantt has remained a well-regarded lawmaker and easily defeated Bush in a rematch in 2024. She has raised $100,000 for the bid.
Gantt has two opponents in the primary. The most notable challenger is former Miami Gardens city commissioner Shannan Ighodaro. Ighodaro is also the wife of former commissioner Erhabor Ighodaro who challenged Senator Jones for the State Senate in 2020 and 2022. As I discuss here, Ighodaro was believed to be behind at least one of the anti-gay attacks launched against Jones, who is openly gay, in those State Senate races. In 2024, Shannan lost her re-election to the Miami Gardens city council. Her campaign, honestly, does not seem very serious. She has avoided interviews and only raised $7,000. Meanwhile, businesswoman and first time candidate Christine Alexandria Sanon-Jules Olivo has pulled in more money and endorsements. She has raised $20,000 and has backing from a batch of local elected officials.
All said, there is every reason to believe Gantt will easily prevail in the primary.
State House Primaries
Democrats currently sit in the super-minority in the state house, and the big goal for the party this year is to break out of that status. Several districts will be focused on in November, which I will be covering more in the fall. For the time being, here is the partisan leaning of the House map.
For this section, I am not going to cover every primary election. This is largely a product of time, but to give bigger races as much attention as I can. Several primaries are for nominations for a party that has zero chance of winning the general; and other primaries are rando challenges to incumbents; where the threat of the incumbent losing is non-existent. Other races will get post-primary looks at we move toward the general.
With literally no time to delay, lets dive into the House primaries.
House District 2 Republican Primary
Located in the Pensacola area, this district covers the coast along Escambia and part of Santa Rosa counties. This solid Republican seat is being vacated by Alex Andrade, a Republican who has clashed with the DeSantis administration a great deal in the last few years. The biggest source of this has been the Hope Florida Scandal, which saw public money diverted by the DeSantis administration to fighting against the 2024 ballot measures that tried to legalize weed and guarantee abortion rights. I wrote about this topic as well during the 2024 campaign. Andrade, despite being a conservative Republican, led the charge on investigating the misappropriation of funds. Needless to say, many Republicans are eager to see Andrade go. No room for a backbone in the Florida GOP.
The primary itself to replace Andrade is between two Republicans, both veterans and first-time candidates. The financial leader is Jon Fay, who’s raised $200,000. This puts Fay at a serious advantage over Trei McMullen, who has raised just $25,000. The race, as best I can find, has been a cordial affair with both men framing themselves as conservatives.
House District 9 Republican Primary
In 2024, Republicans spent over $1,000,000 trying to flip House District 9 from Democrat Allison Tant. The move failed spectacularly, with Tant not only easily winning in this Harris +4% seat, but securing has the biggest over-performance of state House candidate in the entire state; winning by 14%. I wrote about that dynamic here. Thanks to this, the two Republicans running to take on Tant are doing so with no party support. As a result, the money for this race is virtually non-existent. Jibri Knight has raised $2,000 and is relying on a $10,000 campaign loan. Tracy Robinson, meanwhile, loaned her campaign $2,000 and that’s it. The primary is for the thankless task of getting walloped by Tant in November.
I’m only even mentioning this race because it’s my state house district.
House District 10 Republican Primary
This is a deep red seat located in rural North Florida. Located north of Gainesville and west of Jacksonville, this seat includes the rural counties of Columbia, Baker, Union, Bradford; and a northern chunk of Alachua. The seat is being vacated by Chuck Brannan, who has hit term limits. Running for the seat is Chuck’s son, Chase Brannan, who has raised $225,000. Brannan’s opponent is Marshall Rawson, a conservative activist and former legal aid to far-right Republican and current Secretary of State Cord Byrd. Rawson has raised a solid $140,000 for his bid.
However, Rawson has come under increasing scrutiny in the last few weeks for his strong ties a white nationalist and pro-secession group called “League of the South.” The story that has broken here documents Rawson’s long ties to the group as a speaker and promoter and how the group is tied in with racist commentary and aligned with other neo-Nazi organizations. Rawson has tried to downplay the story and claims he was in the organization to protest shariah law – a threat that does not exist in this country at all. The initially story has plenty of receipts and comments from Rawson that makes it pretty clear he in fact a white nationalist.
There is no clarity on if Brannan was emerge or Rawson. Its no guarantee the son of an outgoing member wins, and I’m sadly not even sure the Rawson story will matter to many rural voters. To be sure, if Rawson wins, he will be of the most racist members of the Florida legislature since Jim Crow.
House District 13 Democratic Primary
Two democrats are facing off in the primary for this majority-Black and solidly Democratic district located in Jacksonville. The race is actual a battle of familiar vs new. Former State Senator Audrey Gibson, who left office in 2022 due to term limits, is running for this seat. Gibson, who also previously served in the state house, ran for Jacksonville Mayor in 2023, but was eliminated in the primary. Following this, Gibson refused to endorse Democrat Donna Deegan in the general election; a race Deegan went on to win anyway. Needless to say, this move did not endear Gibson to many local democrats. However, its not clear that is factoring into the campaign.
Gibson’s opponent is attorney Leslie Jean-Bart, who has argued that while Gibson has a career to be proud of, its time for a new generation to take the helm. Both candidates have raised just $40,000 respectively and the contest has been overshadowed by several local races happening at the same time. Gibson has a likely advantage due to name ID and familiarity. The question then will be if Jean-Bart has tapped into the desire for a fresh face, or if voters are willing to stick with someone they’ve long known.
House District 21 Democratic Primary
House 21 is a heavily Democratic, Black-access seat that goes from Alachua and into Marion County. The seat has historically been drawn to connect the Black communities of Ocala and Gainesville. It is not a majority-Black seat, but rather serves to unite the historic Black community of the neighboring cities. The seat is being vacated by Democrat Yvonne Hayes Hinson.
The seat is 50% white and 30% Black, and while a Democratic primary is often near majority-Black, this primary is open to all voters since only democrats are running. As a result we are likely to see a primary that is around 55% white and 30% Black. On that note, FIVE Democrats are running here, with some interesting racial and geographic components. I’ll lay out the candidates blow and key points.
- Malik Moore (Alachua County, African-American) – Legislative staffer endorsed by Representative Hinson.
- Jackie Randall (Alachua County, African-American) – Former Mayor of Hawthorn, a small rural town
- Xavier Monroe (Alachua County, African-American) – Policy fellow at the National Science Foundation
- Antione Fields (Marion County, African-American) – Progressive organizer
- Sylvain Dore (Alachua County, white) – Doctor and former professor of Anesthesiology and Neuroscience at UF
The race has generated little money, with all five candidates raising between $20,000 and $36,000. Four candidates comes from the Alachua side of the district, which makes up 65% of the registration. Fields, the most avowed young progressive in the race, is hurt by the weak youth turnout in primaries but can benefit from being the lone Ocala candidate. Meanwhile, Dore could become the first white Democrat to represent this seat in some time. I am curious how this race sees region and race play a role, or if it does at all. Hence I will be watching, as this is important info as the fight over race and redistricting continues.
House 25 – Republican Primary
House 25 is a deep red district that covers the lower half of Lake County and is seeing Republican Incumbent Taylor Yarkosky run for re-election. Yarkosky should be favored for re-election, raising $200,000 and racking up support, but he does have a far-right primary worth discussing. His opponent is Tom Vail, a multi-time candidate that two years ago tried to primary the Lake County Supervisor of Elections; running on a “2020 was stolen” message.
Vail was defeated by Incumbent Alan Hays, a former state senator who was very critical of the election denial movement. Vail lost, but he was strongest in the southern precincts that overlap with this house seat. He’s raised little money, just $17,000, but I’m keeping an eye on this just to see how well he does.
House 43 – Democratic Primary
Two Democrats are facing off in this majority-Hispanic seat in Orange County. The race offers a very stark dynamic. The financial frontrunner is Samuel Vilchez Santiago, who has served as the Orange County Democratic Party Chair until announcing his run. He has raised $160,000 and is endorsed by virtually all prominent democrats in the area. Meanwhile, his opponent is former State House member Daisy Morales, who won election in 2020 by defeating Santiago in a Democratic Primary. Morales, however, lost her re-election in 2022 to Rita Harris in what is now the neighboring HD44. House 43 shares the Northeast border with HD44.
The primary from Harris was backed by most Florida Democrats after Morales voted for several Republican bills and questions around financial issues emerged. I covered that way back in my 2022 primary preview. Morales ran again in 2024 against Harris but again lost; that time 30 points. Now Morales is challenging for this seat, though its been noted she still is registered to vote in HD44, and hence cannot even vote for herself. She has raised no money and relied on a $8,000 loan. While Santiago is surely favored to win, Florida Democrats have worked to make sure by hitting Morales in the mail for her previous support for Republicans. Morales has answered this by suing over the mailers; hiring far-right Republican Anthony Sabatini as her attorney. Take of that what you will.
House 47 – Democratic Primary
Florida house district 47, a majority-Hispanic seat located around Kissimmee and St. Cloud, just south of Orlando, has a long political saga. The seat was originally very democratic, but like many district swung to the right in 2024, narrowly backing Donald Trump.
The seat has a Republican Incumbent, Paula Stark, who was running for re-election. However, Stark’s campaign, which already had several paperwork issues revolving around campaign finances, messed up their qualifying documents. As a result, Stark was booted from the ballot! This leave just the Democratic candidates Anthony Nieves and Jorge Figueroa, to fight in a democratic primary which is open to all voters. No other Republican filed, so the winner here will automatically flip this seat! I wrote much more about this whole saga here. Neither candidate has raised a great deal of money, with Nieves at $10,000 (and loaned another $25,000) while Figueroa raised $40,000. Nieves is the more progressive candidate in the contest and is likely favored thanks to name ID from previous runs.
House 62 – Democratic Primary
Two democrats are facing off in this race to replace Democratic Michele Rayner who is running for Senate District 16. This district crosses the Tampa Bay waterway and connects portions of Pinellas with Hillsborough counties; designed to be a Black-access seat. The candidates offer a stark dynamic. Former State House member Wengay Newton is making his latest run for office. Newton was a state Representative from 2016 to 2020, but since then has lost four different races for office. This included a loss to Rayner in 2022.
Newton has raised just $40,000 and is heavily out-funded by first-time-candidate Kyandra Darling, who has raised $140,000. Darling is a former aid to Charlie Crist and has worked in St Pete city hall. Most expect Darling to emerge victorious, with Newton taking on increasing perennial candidate status.
House District 64 Democratic and Republican Primary
Both parties are having primaries for the majority-Hispanic House 64. This seat, like so many Hispanic seats in Florida, flipped from Biden to Trump in 2024. On top of this, Incumbent Susan Valdez switched parties in December of 2024; a move that I discussed at length here. Valdez, who btw only switched after losing a bid to become Hillsborough County Democratic Chair, is termed out.
Three Democrats are running to take back this seat for their party. Tampa City Councilman Luis Salazar has raised $100,000 for his bid. Veteran Luis Salazar is an openly-gay longtime Latino and progressive activist and has managed to raised $65,000 in his bid. Finally, John Rodriguez has been a former legislative staffer, including to former State Senator Janet Cruz, and has raised $15,000.
On the Republican side, the frontrunner appears to be Dan Weldon, who’s raised $45,000. Weldon was initially running for Congressional District 14, but switched races when much more prominent Republicans jumped into that contest. Weldon’s only opponent in the primary is Angel Ramos, who has raised just $8,000. Considering this being a swing seat, I’m surprised about the lack of money here. Whether this changes for the general, or if Republicans just cede back the seat, remains to be seen.
House 74 – Republican Primary
This seat covers western Sarasota County and has a four-way Republican primary ongoing. The race would honestly not get a mention from me if not for recent developments in the contest. While four candidates are running, its really a three-way fight between Venice Mayor Nick Pachota, former Congressional staffer Kelly Ann Walker, and Jennifer Peeples Winkler, who founded a major insurance agency. The race has been a generic Republican affair that between candidates and informal committees, has seen hundreds of thousands spent via donors or self-funding.
However, the race got nasty and personal in the last few days when a secondary committee for Walker ran texts claiming Winker has offered $150,000 to her ex-husband to ensure he remains quiet through the campaign. The mass texts include photos of supposed texts Winker sent to her ex, who has refused to comment and cites ongoing separation litigation. The image is from the above linked article.
While the money offer does raise questions about what “skeletons” are being hidden, the attack has drawn condemnation for bringing an opponent’s private divorce into a campaign. There is also the clear gender dynamic of one woman attacking another about such a personal matter. No doubt Nick Pachota has been happy to sit back and stay out of that story.
House 87 – Republican Primary
Earlier this year, a special election was held for this northern coastal Palm Beach State House seat; a district that includes Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence. In that election, despite the seat backing Trump by 11%, Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples in a major Democratic flip. I wrote about that race here. Gregory is running for a full term this November.
Maples pledged once the special was over that he would run again in November. He first must get through the Republican Primary, however. In that contest, Maples, who’s raised $140,000, faces Jonathan Rubin, who’s raised $35,000 and loaned his campaign $25,000. Rubin is the executive director of the Clean Earth Initiative and is running as an environmentalist Republican. This has led to Maples claiming Rubin’s not a real Republican, something Rubin rejects. Maples is very likely to prevail, but it will be interesting how Rubin voters go in the general.
House 98 – Democratic Primary
House District 98 is a racially diverse seat in Central Broward County that has a mix of Black voters, a growing Hispanic population, some white suburbs, and a large retiree population, which includes a sizeable Jewish retiree base. In 2024, a four-way Democratic primary saw Mitch Rosenwald, the then-mayor of Oakland Park, secure victory and become Florida’s first openly gay Jewish State Representative.
The race was also notable in that second-place Emily Rodrigues was also openly gay, making it the first time that two gay candidates finished 1st and 2nd in a Florida primary. Now Rosenwald is running for re-election and facing a rematch with veteran Keith Abel, who came in third place last time.
The primary is open to all voters, as no one else filed for the general. By all accounts Rosenwald will walk through the primary, as he has strong name ID and his $75,000 campaign is far past Abel’s $10,000. The primary has been fairly quiet and the main interest here is how much Abel, who is Black, can consolidate the Black vote, which was divided between him and Shelton Pooler in the last race. On that same point, how Rosenwald will consolidate the north but also make gains with Black voters. This is a race I am largely watching to keep an eye on demographic voting trends.
House 102 – Democratic and Republican Primary
This seat is located in South Central Broward and covers several historically-Democratic suburb; including Cooper City and parts of Davie and Plantation. This is of special note to me as I spent much of my childhood in Cooper City. Once a solid Democratic seat, the district swung to the right in 2024 and backed Harris by just 4%. The district is growing increasingly diverse, now around 45% white and 35% Hispanic, and his home to a large Jewish population. The seat is being vacated by termed-out Democrat Michael Gottlieb.
The Democratic Primary is between two candidates with different styles and visions for politics. Michael Friend, who works in healthcare, has the backing of Gottlieb and many of the incumbent Democratic elected officials He’s raised $120,000 and loaned his campaign another $50,000. Meanwhile, young progressive and Hispanic activist Jayden D’Onofrio, who is just 21 years old, has run a serious campaign on generational change in elected office. D’Onofrio, who has the backing of several progressive groups and Latino Victory, has raised $75,000 and loaned his campaign another $25,000. Both candidates have taken political hits, with D’Onofrio facing questions about money a political committee spending whole Friend has been hit for support from Republican donors.
Two Republicans are running for what is likely to be the GOP at least making a modest push, or serious push, to try and flip the seat. Attorney Mery Lopez-Palma has raised $50,000 for her bid and loaned $70,000 more. She faces longtime fireman Jason Paul Smith, who’s raised $45,000. Palma got into major hot water when she was caught saying that she was the only qualified candidate because as an attorney, she knew how to write laws, and basically laughed off her opponent’s firefighter experience. Palma would be a big liability for the GOP if she was the nominee.
House 106 – Democratic Primary
Two democrats are facing off in an expensive primary to take on scandal-plagued Republican Incumbent Fabián Basabe. This seat covers the coastal towns of Northeast Dade, going from Aventura and down to Miami Beach. The district in question, which is nearly divided between white and Hispanic voters, is also home to a sizeable Jewish population. The seat swung from Biden +10 in 2020 to Trump +9. Basabe, a long colorful figure with no shortage of scandals, was recently found liable for sexually harassing and libeling two former male staffers. Even before this, Basabe was already an under-performer at the ballot, only winning by 4% in 2024.
Now more vulnerable that ever, Basabe will face off with either Lucia Baez-Geller or Ashley Litwin Diego. Baez-Geller is a former school board member and sister to former State Representative Joe Geller. Diego is an attorney who has received a large litany of local democratic endorsements and is running as a fresh face. It feels either could win this race. Expect the general to be a very contentious fight, one I’ll likely be covering in its own article this fall.
House 108 – Democratic Primary
House District 108 sits in the North Miami area while it is 50% Black, has a sizeable Hispanic minority. The seat is also home to a large Caribbean population. Incumbent Dotie Joseph, an attorney of Haitian heritage who was always a reliable liberal vote, is making a long shot bid for Governor in the Democratic Primary. Three Democrats have filed for this race, and one of them is a very familiar face.
Former State House member and former State Senator Daphne Campbell is running for this seat, self-funding $300,000 for her bid! Campbell is a controversial politician who is constantly mired in financial questions and has long been every Republican’s favorite Democrat due to her support for conservative social issues. She has more scandals and controversies than you can count; which all caused her to lose her 2018 primary for re-nomination to the State Senate. She has made runs since then, but never prevailed. However, you cannot rule her out here, as she has a loyal base of supporters.
The most likely candidate to stop Campbell, if anyone does, is Miami-Dade committeewoman Dinah J. Escarment, who has raised $100,000 for her bid and has several major endorsements. Escarment, who like Campbell is Haitian, is far more of a traditional liberal democrat on issues. Finally, Peter Walsh, an attorney and notably the only white candidate in the race, has raised $15,000 and loaned his campaign $20,000 more. The race is almost surely a battle between Campbell and Escarment, and I have no doubt a vast majority of Florida democratic officials are praying Escarment wins.
House 109 – Democratic Primary
Sitting right next to House District 108, also located in the northern Miami area, HD109 is a 57% Hispanic and 40% Black district that has been held by Ashley Gantt since 2022. While the seat is majority-Hispanic, thanks to registration and turnout rates, the voting population is majority-Black. In this primary, four Democrats are running, all of them Black. Due to no other party candidates filing, this primary is open to all voters.
Former House member James Bush III is once again running for this seat. Bush was a conservative Democrat in the state house, often voting with the GOP on abortion, LGBT issues, charter schools, and tax breaks for the rich. Bush was primaried in 2022 thanks to all these issues and defeated by Ashley Gantt. Two years later, Bush would try to take his seat back from Gantt, but came in a distant second in a three-way race.
Bush has only raised $15,000; but he’s never been a strong fundraiser and has a base of support in the district. He’s also got political committee that has $30,000 from entirely charter school donors. In a multi-way race he cannot be counted out.
Many Democrats have rallied around Opa-locka mayor John H. Taylor, who has raised $70,000 and has the backing of Gantt. Rounding out the candidates are activists/community leaders Satin Fye, who’s raised $7,000, and Broadway Harewood, who’s raised $17,000. This race will likely come down to Taylor vs Bush, and there is good reason to think Taylor can win. If Bush wins, he will no doubt be a regular vote for Republican interests.
While this is a Democratic Primary, its really a general election in August.
Final Notes
Enjoy Primary Day! (I really am out of words by this point).