Florida, the 3rd largest state in the nation, is holding its primary tomorrow, August 28th. There are a furry of primaries for politicos in and out of the state to watch. Below is my primary preview for Florida
Gubernatorial Primaries
Enough has been said about the Gubernatorial primaries. Just gonna hit the key points here.
Democratic Primary
The democratic primary is coming down to three candidate – former Congressman Gwen Graham – former Miami Beach mayor Philip Levine – and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum. Polls indicate strong regionalism in the race, with Levine strong in South Florida, Graham strong in North Florida, and Gillum improving his standing among African-Americans.
The likely biggest factor between Graham and Levine will be how the Tampa Bay and Orlando media markets break. Graham seems to have a lead there, and has secured lots of local backing, but she will need good margins to make up for Levine’s expected strength in the southeast and southwest. The Gillum campaign is focusing on consolidating African-American votes, which make up 30% of the primary. A poll out just today puts Gillum in 2nd — the result of now winning 50% of the black vote. However, Graham is also moving up and maintains a 6% lead. This chart from St Pete Polls shows the shifts.
As results come in, remember to account for the counties reporting. Graham is strong in the North, Levine in the south, and many of these counties have large non-white populations.
The democratic primary winner could easily emerge with just around 30% of the vote.
Republican Primary
Adam Putnam had grand plans to be governor. In 2010, the then-Congressman announced he would run for state Agriculture Commissioner. This move was widely seen as a step toward running for Governor – a chance to get him out of DC and back “home.” Putnam started 2017 with a huge war-chest and the clear frontrunner. Then, Congressman Ron DeSantis, a tea-party congressman, got Donald Trump’s backing, and Putnam’s lead evaporated. Most polls now show DeSantis with a solid lead.
Putnam couldn’t have foreseen the Trump push for DeSantis, and endorsement that seems entirely based on loyalty and not policy. Putnam hasn’t given up but reputable polls all say the same thing – DeSantis is heading for a solid win.
Cabinet Primaries
Republican Primary for Attorney General
Hillsborough judge and former prosecutor Ashley Moody was the GOP front-runner for much of 2017 and early 2018. Moody has lcoked in many endorsements from sheriffs and state attorneys. However, she has run into a threat in HD2 State Rep Frank White. The wealthy White has poured $3,000,000 of his own money into this campaign and is running a decidedly more right wing campaign. He has not been afraid to go after Moody from he right and the race has gotten very negative in recent weeks. Polling indicates a narrow white lead but with many undecided. Democrats would absolutely prefer to face white, who has a slew of potential scandals and a hard-right message.
Democratic Primary for Attorney General
There WAS a primary for attorney general. Democratic State Representative Sean Shaw was the clear primary front-runner for the nomination of lawyer Ryan Torrens. However, just on Friday, Torrens was tossed off the ballot when his qualifying was ruled incorrect. If the appeals courts don’t interfere, votes for Torrens will not count and Shaw will be the automatic winner.
Republican Primary for Agriculture Commissioner
There is a multi-way GOP primary going on for Agriculture Commissioner. State Senator Denise Grimsley has a good deal of farm connections and establishment backing. State Rep Matt Caldwell likewise boasts establishment backing and has support from Marco Rubio and the NRA. Former state rep Baxter Troutman, though, has returned to politics and poured over $3,000,000 of his own money into the campaign. Polling is sparse and the race could be anyone’s to win.
Democratic Primary for Agriculture Commissioner
Three democrats are running for the democratic nomination. Lobbyist Nikki Fried has gained the most traction in the primary. She has received a good deal of institutional backing and had enough money to do digital and mail in the campaign. Fried’s main issues is expanding medical marijuana, which was legalized in 2016. Her campaign got a major PR boost when Wells Fargo closed her campaign account due to her support for medical marijuana and her donations from medical marijuana groups/interests. The act gave a great deal of sympathy to Fried. He strongest rival is likely environmental scientist David Walker. Walker has gotten his own share of support and is a favorite of progressives. Finally, Homestead Mayor Jeff Porter is in the race, though he has failed to gain much traction.
Congressional Primaries
I wrote about all of Florida’s congressional districts and gave them November rankings here. For more details on the demographics and geography of these districts, I recommend giving that piece a refresher. This section will focus only on the consequential and noteworthy primaries. Primaries for a party that has no chance to win in November are not being covered (this article is long enough).
Congressional District 1 – GOP Primary
Congressman Matt Gaetz won the CD1 Republican primary with 36% in 2016. Since his election, he has used the office to catapult himself into national news by being an ardent Trump defender. Chris Dosev, who pulled in 20% in 2016, is challenging Gaetz again, claiming he has forgotten the district and focuses on national appearances. Dosev also has the backing of the family of 2nd place finisher Greg Evers (who has passed away).
As much as I would personally love to see Gaetz lose, that is not likely. I will, however, be curious to see how Dosev does and if any areas express resistance to Gaetz.
Congressional District 3 – GOP Primary
Congressman Ted Yoho was a surprising congressman. He defeated longtime incumbent Cliff Stearns in 2012. Stearns had seen his district drastically reshaped in redistricting and wound up with a large chunk of new voters. On top of that, he found himself in a heated race with State Senator Steve Oelrich. The two establishment Republicans brutalized each-other, allowing veterinarian Ted Yoho to pull off a win with rural support. Yoho has since had little struggle winning election while maintaining a strong freedom caucus record. His district underwent changes in 2016 and he lost alot of the rural counties that backed him.
Yoho now faces what could be a real challenger in the GOP primary. Winter Park businessman Judson Sapp has raised $240,000 (190 of that is self-funded) and is running ads connecting himself to Trump. Sapp has backing from Clay County republican officials.
It will be interesting to see how this goes. Yoho should win, but how Clay votes could be out-of-step with the rest of the district.
Congressional District 5 – DEM Primary
The new version of the 5th district was created in 2016 and is meant to be a minority-access seat. It connects African-American populations across North Florida, stretching from the Tallahassee market to Jacksonville. District 5 will feature a major Democratic primary. Congressman Al Lawson, elected to the newly-formed 5th district in 2016, will face off with former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown. Lawson is based out of Tallahassee, making the race a fight between the Tallahassee and Jacksonville markets. The two metro zones make up the bulk of the districts population, with lower-populated rural counties in-between. While Jacksonville has far more registered democrats than the western counties, Leon and Gadsden have stronger turnout and thus can come close to equaling Jacksonville’s vote. The 2016 primary between Lawson and then-Congressman Corrine Brown came down to the the western counties vs Jacksonville.
This race will likely fall on similar sectional lines. Lawson is very strong in the west, having spent his career as a state senator and state house member. Brown, meanwhile, has longtime ties in Jacksonville, being the city’s first African-American mayor since consolidation. Brown’s campaign, though, has clearly struggled and hasn’t managed to consolidate Jacksonville support. Lawson maintains a strong fundraising and polling lead. He should win on Tuesday.
Congressional District 6 – GOP Primary and DEM Primary
The 6th congressional district, mestled in St Johns, Volusia, Flagler, and Lake Counties is being vacated by Ron DeSantis as he runs for Governor. The Republican primary initially was a closer race, with former State Rep Fred Costello having the advantage in endorsements. However, recent polls show army veteran Michael Waltz polling into the lead. Costello got bad press when the NRA revoked their “A” rating and endorsement after the former rep expressed support for the school safety package passed after Parkland. Costello is likely hurt by multiple failed campaigns, including a primary to DeSantis in 2016.
Democrats, meanwhile, are optimist Nancy Soderberg can give the party an opportunity to win this GOP seat that used to be closer to a tossup but has moved more to the right. She leads primary polls but many are still undecided. This race could be a dark horse in November.
Congressional District 7 – GOP Primary
Democrat Stephanie Murphy won this district in 2016 by ousting longtime incumbent John Mica. Three Republicans have lined up against her; businessman Scott Sturgill, HD47 State Rep Mike Miller, and attorney Vennia Francois. Miller has amassed a large number of endorsements and has gone hard negative on Sturgill in the campaign. Recent polls have Miller at 42% to Sturgill’s 26%. A Miller win will be what the Republican Party prefers.
Congressional District 9 – DEM Primary
The 9th district of Florida is meant to be an Hispanic-opportunity seat based out of Orlando/Osceola. The district is a sight of a growing Puerto Rican population, though at the moment whites are still the largest voting block. The 9th district was going to be a sleepy affair until last week, when the district’s former Congressman, Alan Grayson, decided to challenge incumbent Derron Soto in the Democratic primary. Grayson had given up his seat in 2016 to launch a failed Senate campaign; which was derailed by physical clashes with reporters and accusations from his ex-wife of abuse. He wound up with less than 20% statewide in the primary. However, he did manager to carry his district, albeit by a weak margin.
The same day, then-State Senator Soto won a 3-way primary with 36% of the vote. Two white candidates, politico Susanne Randolph, and Grayson’s new wife Dena Grayson – to take the primary. Soto, who is Puerto Rican. outperformed the 30% Hispanic share of the primary. This primary will be one-on-one. Both Grayson and Soto did well in Hispanic areas of the district and poorly in Polk County (which is more white). Grayson can self fund but he is also damaged and its generally agreed Soto should have the advantage.
Grayson has run a nasty campaign filled with the usual half-truths and outbursts. The lone public poll has Soto leading by 7 points. Grayson is the only one who could make this race competitive in November. A Soto win will hopefully end Grayson’s joke of a career.
Congressional District 15 – GOP and DEM
The 15th district, which spans across Hillsborough, Polk, and Lake County, is open following the retirement of Dennis Ross. Several Republicans have filed, but only two have a real shot at winning. Hillsborough State Rep Ross Spano and former Polk Rep Neil Combee are locked in a close and fierce primary. Recently polls give Combee a 3% edge. The race has taken a nasty turn at the end as the Combee campaign accused Spano of buying votes when his campaign offered to refund voters filling up at a gas station the amount of extra tax they were paying thanks to a tax increase Combee voted for while on the Polk County Commission. Spano has pointed out the amounts to each person were under $1 and threatened a defamation suit.
Democrats are in a fight of their own. Two candidates, Andrew Learned and Kristen Carlson, have raised $300,000 for the campaign. Both have been heavily campaigning and trading blows at different points. Learned has pitched Medicare for All and has the backing of the Progressive Caucus. Carlson has the backing of Emily’s list and has at least one PAC pushing funds to help her.
The November race is currently ranked Lean Republican.
Congressional District 17 – GOP
A fierce GOP primary is underway for this conservative district; which covers parts of of the western coast of Florida (Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee) and inland farm counties (like Highlands, Polk, Desoto). State Senator Greg Steube, known for being a fierce pro-gun lawmaker, appeared to be the front runner at first – however, state Rep Julio Gonzalez has made the race much more contentious. Both have raised around $500,000, but Gonzalez has also self-funded an additional $150,000. Gonzales has been attacked for #NeverTrump tweets from 2016 and Steube’s combat record has been questioned. Meanwhile, third party groups have poured over a million dollars into the race. Whoever wins the primary is effectively guaranteed to win in November.
Congressional District 18 – GOP and DEM
Incumbent Republican Brian Mast won this district, based in St Lucie, Martin, and northern Palm Beach; in 2016. The district leans to the right but was held by Democrat Patrick Murphy from 2012-2016. Mast faces a minor primary challenge from Mark Freeman, who came in 3rd in the 2016 GOP primary that Mast one. The primary centers around Mast’s willingness to support gun control measures after the Parkland School shooting. This break from GOP ranks has fueld Freeman’s run, but he has gained little traction and largely relies on self-funding of $250,000. Mast should win but a closer margin will show how dangerous going against the NRA is for Republicans.
The Democratic primary for this seat features a notable establishment vs outsider dynamic. National democrats have rallied around Lauren Baer, who worked in the Obama state department. Baer’s network of support has allowed her to raised over $1.8 million. Pam Keith, a favorite of progressive democrats, has raised $500,000 in her bid for the seat. She was initially considered for the district in 2016, but opted to run for US Senate, coming in 3rd in the Murphy vs Grayson fight. Her performance actually improved as Grayson’s campaign collapsed amid domestic violence accusations and leftists who didn’t like Murphy moved to Keith. The national party would prefer a Baer win, but you can’t rule out either taking the primary here.
Congressional District 27 – GOP and DEM
The retirement of Republican Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has given democrats their best pickup opportunity in Florida. This Hispanic seat, located along the Miami-Dade coast, went solid for Clinton but always was loyal to their longtime incumbent; who was one of the most moderate members of the GOP caucus. The retirement led to a flood of candidates for both sides.
On the democratic side, the front-runner is Donna Shalala, a former Clinton cabinet member and former president of the University of Miami. Shalala’s resume and political activism have allowed her to maintain a constant lead in Democratic primary polls. Her closest rival is HD13 Representative David Richardson. Richardson has actually out raised Shalala (both have raised around $2,000,000) and is the favorite of progressive groups; but he seems to have trouble closing the gap in the polls. There has been a public battle of internal polls, but all show Shalala leading Richardson from 12% to 18%. All these polls give Shalala only around 36-32% of the vote. Former newspaper reporter Matt Haggman is behind Richardson and Shalala, but has amassed $1.5 million in fundraising. Former Miami Beach councilwoman Kristen Rosen-Gonzalez has raised $500,000 for her campaign, but her progressive route has been hijacked by Richardson. Overall, Shalala seems like the favorite but Richardson could surge at the end.
The Republican primary is just as cluttered. Originally, Miami-Dade Commissioner Bruno Barreiro appeared to be the favorite. However, his campaign took a major hit when his wife lost the special election for the commission seat he resigned from to run for congress. The body blow to their political dynasty has undermined his campaign. It likely shows he was never as strong as once thought. He’s only managed to take in $500,000. Maria-Elvira Salazar, a TV reporter, appears to be the frontrunner now, as she has the backing from many officials, has strong name ID, and has raised $700,000. Then there is Bettina Rodriguez-Aguilera, a Doral commissioner who has claimed she was abducted by aliens. She has only raised $80,000 but got the endorsement of the Miami-Herald. Five other candidates are in the race but one of these three is likely to win.
The Democratic primary winner starts off with the advantage in November.
State Senate Primaries
As with Congress, you can read much more about Florida’s state senate elections in my November rankings for the chamber. Only a few primaries are notable this year – with much of the action waiting till the fall.
Senate District 8 – DEM Primary
This state Senate seat, centered around Gainesville and Ocala, is set to be one of the most fiercely fought campaigns in the general election. Democrats are targeting Incumbent Keith Perry and hope to pick up this seat that Trump only won by 1,000 votes. The democratic primary originally seemed very one-sided. Doctor and healthcare advocate Kayser Enneking was the clear choice of party leaders and has raised $380,000. She does have a primary from Olysha Magruder, who has raised $35,000. However, Magruder has gotten assistance from a PAC run by Republicans that has sent multiple mailers attacking Enneking and praising Magruder. The ads try to play up a narrative of Enneking being part of the democratic “establishment” while Magruder is the outspoken liberal progressive. Clearly Republicans fear a Enneking win and are trying to “ratfuck” the primary. We will see how this all ends on Tuesday.
Senate District 25 – GOP Primary
The GOP primary for the seat has gotten nasty and expensive. State Representative Gayle Harrell, based out of St Lucie, is in a fight with Belinda Keiser, the Vice-Chancellor of Keiser University. Keiser has spent over $900,000 of her own money to win the primary. It all seems to be for nothing, as polls put Harrell ahead by large margins. The vicious fight could give Democrats an opening. However, Harrell will be a strong nominee and the district still leans to the right.
Senate District 34 – DEM Primary
Two years ago, lawyer Gary Farmer defeated former State Representative Jim Waldman and then-state Representative Gwen Clarke-Reed. The primary was primarily fought between Farmer and Waldman, who brutalized each-other in ads. The nasty campaign actually aided the underfunded Reed, who crept into 2nd. Reed would win in Deerfield Beach, the area she represented in the State House. Waldman, meanwhile would win scattered precincts. Farmer would easily win the three-way fight.
Farmer was originally expected to be re-elected unopposed, but Waldman filed to run right before qualifying ended. Waldman has loaned his campaign $150,000 and is also using a political committee to go after Farmer. Waldman has been falsey claiming Farmer voted against gun reform (Farmer voted no on a gun/security bill that passed after the Parkland School shooting). The reality is Farmer was a heavy pusher for an assault weapons ban and didn’t back the bill due to its more modest gun control and it allowing the arming of school teachers. The race has been nasty, but polling shows Farmer is still expected to win the race.
Senate District 36 – DEM Primary
Democrats are making a play for Senate District 36, one of the four Hispanic-majority districts in Miami-Dade County. Democrats have two candidates, but the party clearly wants David Perez to win the primary. Perez is the longtime aid to former Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas. After a slow start, Perez’s fundraising has finally kicked up – sitting at $90,000. Perez is likely to defeat Julian Santos, who has raised $33,000 and has the Miami Herald’s endorsement. If Perez loses, its unclear if the party would remain as invested in the district. Both are respectable candidates with good resumes.
Senate District 38 – DEM Primary
Easily the most important and epic primary for the state senate will be here. State Senate district 38 is a solid Democratic seat based in North Miami-Dade’s coast. The seat is a melting pot of communities. It includes coastal communities of whites and hispanics as well as a more-inland set of voters that are heavily African-American and Haitian. The seat is over 70% Democratic and hence the Democratic primary is all that matters.
When the seat formed in 2016, it was won by Democratic State Representative Daphne Campbell. Campbell won the seat with 31% in a very cluttered primary – winning her base of support in the Haitian community. Campbell benefited from the coastal communities being split between Jason Pizzo – a prosecutor, Michael Gorgora – a Miami Beach commissioner, and Kevin Burns – a former North Miami commissioner. A Democratic primary is just over 50% African-American, but African-American candidates (Campbell and Blemur) only made up 36% of the vote.
Campbell is a very controversial figure in Democratic politics. Her family is under constant scrutiny for questionable business practices, she is socially conservative and is disliked the district’s large LGBT population, and she is very cozy with Republicans. She has an adversarial relationship with the press, calling the police on reporters who ask her questions at public events. Their is also much debate about if she lives in the district.
The controversy around her made a primary challenge a sure bet once she won in 2016. Pizzo, who came in 2nd last time, announced he would run. Once qualifying ended, no other candidates had filed. Campbell is largely expected to be vulnerable in a 1-on-1 primary. Her troubles became even worse when no general election candidate filed, making it an open primary. This makes the African-American vote fall to just over 30%, and her Haitian base falls even to below that (not all African-Americans in the district are Haitian). Considering how much Campbell under-performed African-Americans last time, and her near-zero support with whites and Hispanics, she is in real trouble.
The Campbell campaign is trying to win over Republican votes (who can vote in the open primary). Her social conservative views can aid here there, but Pizzo’s prosecutor ties also give him an in with this block.
State House Primaries
This section focuses on the primaries of note and importance for the state house. Expected blowouts (someone raised $200,000 compared to someone’s $5,000) and primaries for the party that has zero chance of winning in November are not being covered. That said, we have a great deal of races to talk about.
House District 1 – GOP Primary (District Map)
There is an expensive GOP primary underway for House District 1 – which encompasses Northern Escambia County. Former State Rep Mike Hill might have been seen as the initial favorite, but he has lagged Rebekah Bydlak in fundraising. Bydlak ran for Florida’s 1st Congressional district in 2016 but came in 4th. That same year Hill left his seat (House district 2) to run for state senate and fell short. Hill was never had strong relations with GOP leadership; leading to Bydlak receiving far more institutional backing. A recent poll put Bydlak at 40% to Hill’s 34%.
House District 10 – GOP Primary (District Map)
Two Republicans are facing off for the GOP nomination for Florida’s 10th state house seat. The district, being left open by Elizabeth Porter. Lake City businessman Marc Vann has the backing of Porter. Chuck Brannon, a former law enforcement official from Baker County, is also running. Both candidates have raised large sums of money and the race for this rural seat could come down to regional allegiances.
House District 14 – DEM Primary (Universal) (District Map) (2016 Primary Map)
Incumbent Democrat, and all around lunatic, Kimberly Daniels won her seat in this majority-black district in 2016 with only 36% of the vote. Daniels is socially conservative and known for outrageous statements and ethical lapses. I have dubbed her the worst Democratic in Florida in an article. She is being challenged by Jacksonville School Board member Paula Wright. Daniels has out-raised Wright 2-1 thanks to conservative funding. In addition, the race is open to all voters, allowing Republicans to vote for Daniels. Sadly, Daniels may well hold on.
House District 15 – GOP Primary (District Map)
Three Republicans are competing in the GOP primary for HD15 – a normally solid GOP seat that is expected to be heavily contested in November. The suburban Jacksonville district swung more to Democrats, but still backed Trump 51-44. Democrats have their candidate in Tracye Ann Polson. Republicans have largely consolidated around Jacksonville lobbyist Wyman Duggan, with Mayor Lenny Curry’s operation backing the candidate. Duggan has to defeat Mark Zeigler and Joseph Hogan, who combined haven’t raised as much as Duggan. The key watch here is Duggan’s overall share. The race has gotten nasty in the end, causing heartburn for GOP leaders.
House District 26 – DEM Primary (District Map)
Incumbent Democrat Patrick Hendry sits in a house seat that only backed Clinton by a 48.1% – 47.4% margin. He has two GOP challengers, but the race I’m watching her is a primary challenger from Percy Williams. Williams doesn’t strike me as a strong challenger, but the freshman lawmaker is posting unimpressive fundraising ($39,000) and the question to me is how he does against Williams, who has a total of $20,000 (including self-funding).
House District 29 – DEM Primary (District Map)
Two democrats are fighting out for this modestly GOP seat located in western Seminole County. The seat is held by Republican Scott Plakon and backed Trump 49-45. Tracy Kagen has the backing of prominent women’s groups like NOW and Ruths List. Darryl Block has backing from progressives and the AFL-CIO. Fundraising has been low and both will be at a disadvantage in the fall.
House District 30 – DEM Primary (District Map)
This suburban seat, located in North Orange and southern Seminole County backed Clinton 51-43 and is a seat Democrats would like to pick up. Three Democrat are running to take on Incumbent Bob Cortes. Maitland Commissioner Joy Goff-Marci appeared to be the front-runner originally; garnering notable endorsements and raising the most money (granted its only $26,000). However, momentum may be with Brendan Ramirez, who has the backing of the Florida House Victory PAC and George Soro’s PAC. A third candidate, Clark Anderson, is in the race and campaigning aggressively. It feels like a fight between Ramirez and Goff-Marci. Whoever wins will need to kick up fundraising against Cortes in the fall.
House District 32 – GOP Primary (District Map)
Three Republicans are fighting for this solid red house district that includes southern Lake County. Monica L. Wofford, a professional speaker, has raised $65,000 and self-funded another $20,000. Eustis Commissioner Anthony Sabatini has raised $45,000. Shannon Elswick has raised the most with $92,000. The election hasn’t generated a good deal of attention. Sabatini is the most outspoken conservative and a drew headlines for encouraging cities to send their confederate monuments to Eustis if they were at risk of being taken down. Sabatini appears to come more from the anti-establishment side of the party compared to more mild-mannered Wofford and Elswick.
House District 44 – DEM Primary (District Map)
A special election for House district 44, a solidly white seat in the southwest corner of Orange County, was a strange affair. Democrats saw their candidate drop out, had to field a replacement, and still only lost by 10%. This gave Democrats hope to have a better shot at the district in the regular November election. This suburban seat, which covers Disney World, swung from Romney to a 50%-44% Clinton win – fueled by Trump’s problem with college educated whites. Republicans still maintain a strong down-ballot advantage, however. Two democrats are running in the primary to take on Incumbent Robert Olszewski. Democrat Margaret Melanie Gold is a progressive activists and former stockbroker. Geraldine F. Thompson is a former state Representative and State Senator. Thompson, who is African-American, used to represent the black-majority state house and then state senate seat located in western Orange County. She ran for Congress in 20116 but lost the primary to now-Congresswoman Val Demings. Thompson is touting bipartisan support and government knowledge as reasons to back her. However, for a former lawmaker, she’s only raised $30,000. Gold has raised $15,000 and self-funded $40,000. It will be interesting if the district votes for the more familiar face in Demings, or opts for someone new.
House District 47 – GOP Primary (District Map)
The district is the site of a brutal GOP primary and will be the site of an expensive general election as well. The seat, located in central Orange County, is a suburban-white district surrounded by more diverse house seats. It has been a swing/Lean Dem district on the Presidential level, but Trump’s weak showing with college educated whites resulted in a 53%-41% Clinton win. Nevertheless, the seat has remained in GOP hands since 2014. Now, state Representative Mike Miller is running for Congress, leaving the GOP looking for a new candidate. Two Republicans are running, lawyer Mikaela Nix and businessman Stockton Reeves. Nix has gotten many local endorsement and raised more money (78K to Stockton’s 45k). But Stockton has also self-funded 95K of additional funds. The race has gotten nastier and Stockton recently sent a (to me at least) race-baiting mailer (Nix is black) highlighting Nix’s petty theft arrest from when she was 18. Nix, meanwhile, as attacked Stockton for issues with his financial disclosures and ethics complaints. The winner will face Anna Eskamani, who sits on a whopping $300,000.
House District 50 – GOP Primary (District Map)
State Representative Rene Plasencia pulled off an upset win in 2014, winning HD49, a democratic district, in a strong Republican year. Plasencia, knowing his re-election chances were going to be low, opted to run in HD50 in 2016; a more GOP friendly district. This district includes eastern Orange and Northwestern Brevard County. Plasencia won the primary there, but only by a 52-48 margin to college professor George Collins. The money fight in that race was closer thanks to Collins’ self-funding. This year features a rematch of that primary. However, Collins has only thrown in $30,000; while Plasencia raised on $180,000. Plasencia got tagged for voting on the school safety/gun control package that passed the legislature after the Parkland shooting. However, fallout from the right hasn’t seemed to materialize. The race got heated last month when Plasencia accused a former staffer of downloading data to give to Collins. Plasencia should win, but I am watching just in case.
House District 51 – GOP Primary (District Map)
This open seat, nestled in northern Brevard county (including Kennedy Space Center) is safe for team red in November and has an expensive GOP primary. Cocoa Mayor Henry Parrish and Tyler Sirois, an exectucitve with the state attorney’s office, have both raised close to $100,000 for their campaign. The campaign has had some negative moments, with Parrish being forced to pay back taxes on a bed and breakfast mid-campaign after a mailer attacked him for the debt. Whoever wins will be safe in this 58-37 Trump seat.
House District 52 – GOP Primary (District Map)
Thad Altman, a former state senator who won an open house district 52 (based in northern Brevard) in 2016, faces a GOP primary from Matt Nye. Altman is favored to win and has double the money, but I am curious to see the final margins. When Altman won his house seat in 2016, he performed weaker than expected for at-the-time being a powerful State Senator. Altman isn’t always a rigged Republican when it comes to talking points. I’m wondering if GOP voters are tolerating him. A blowout win will erase these thoughts – a narrower win will confirm them. Worth a glance.
House District 57 – GOP Primary (District Map)
The GOP primary for this open Republican district, based in Southeastern Hillsborough, has the feel of religious conservative vs more business conservative. Mike Beltran, who has raised $30,000 and self-funded $100,000 in hard money, has backing from social conservative groups. Meanwhile, businessman Sean McCoy has the backing of the Florida Chamber. Beltran has gotten in some hot water for inflating his NRA grade. The winner of this primary is expected to be safe in the general.
House District 61 – DEM (District Map)
Democrat Sean Shaw is vacating this safe-democratic, African-American seat to run for Attorney General. A four way Democratic primary has emerged. Karen Skyers, a former public defender, appears to be the frontrunner. She has gotten most endorsements and leads the pack in fundraising by a notable margin. Dianne Hart, who only lost the 2016 primary by 101 votes is behind Skyers in fundraising, but cannot be discounted due to her name ID from the last campaign. Shaw has endorsed Skyers, while State Senator Darryl Rouson has backed Hart.
House District 62 – DEM (District Map)
This is an all-democrat affair for the seat Democratic-leader Janet Cruz is termed out of. The seat, based in western Tampa, has a growing Hispanic population and is solidly Democratic. Three Democrats are running, but the race appears to be a two-person affair. Mike Alvarez has the most hard money in the campaign and the backing of prominent Democrats in the county. His biggest challenge is from school board member Susan Valdes, who has benefited from charter school groups sending third-party mailers on her behalf. The race is being shaped by a public vs charter schools narrative. Liberals definitely prefer Alvarez.
House District 64 – GOP (District Map)
This race is listed just for the sideshow of it all. This seat, based out of Northern Pinellas and Hillsborough is marginally GOP but will be safe for Representative James Grant in November. First he must get through a primary from a self-funding financial planner Terry Power. Power has thrown $90,000 into his campaign, but a string of bad press has tanked what little chance he had. Reports of him failing to pay alimony, and reports of him applying for food stamps while living in a high-end house and making far more than the maximum that would allow you to qualify, don’t paint a good image. Grant should crush Power.
House District 66 – GOP (District Map)
The seat, based in upper Pinellas county, is more solidly GOP, backing Trump 54-40. It features an expensive GOP primary for this open district. Attorney Berny Jacques, who would be one of only a few African-American republicans to grace the capital, has maintained a fundraising lead. However, businessman and Pinellas GOP Chair Nick DiCeglie has raised a good deal and self-funded as well to keep the money race close. DiCeglie has wracked up more endorsements and maintains just over a 10% lead in the polls.
House District 69 – GOP (District Map)
There is an expensive GOP primary underway for the open House District 69 (based in Pinellas), which backed Trump by a narrow 49-46 margin. Lawyer Ray Blacklidge leads in the polls and money. Ray also benefits from his opponent, attorney Jeremy Bailie, getting caught removing door hangers. Blacklidge got into controversy himself when he shared a meme on facebook that appeared to downplay African-slavery. The winner will face Democrat Jennifer Webb, who sits on $164,000.
House District 70 – DEM (Universal) (District Map)
Former St Pete Councilman Wengay Newton won House District 70, a black-plurality district that stretches from Pinellas and into Sarasota County, in 2016. After getting into office, he upset local and state Democrats by baking Rick Baker, a Republican, for St Petersburg Mayor, against Incumbent Democratic Mayor Rick Kriseman. Following this, two challengers emerged – Keisha Bell and Vito Shelly. All three candidates are African-American. Shelly, a longtime politico in the area, has the support of a good deal of Pinellas County democrats. Newton benefits from the primary be open to all voters, and a GOP group sent a mailer encouraging their voters to back Newton. Netwon benefits from split opposition and an open primary – making him the favorite. However, if he under-performs, another ousting effort could emerge in 2020.
House District 74 – GOP (District Map)
The GOP primary for this safe-R seat, nestled in southern Sarasota County, is between North Port Vice Mayor Linda Yates and Congressman Buchanan’s son, James Buchanan. Buchanan ran for and lost the special election for HD72 earlier this year. He has now opted to run for this more solidly GOP seat. The fact that he lost what should have been a Republican hold may have angered GOP officials, but he appears poised to win this primary. He’s raised $60,000 to Yates’ $11,000. Still, moving to a different district and the smell of loss can cause upsets. I’m gonna watch this just to be safe.
House District 81 – DEM (Universal) (District Map)
State Rep Joseph Abruzzo opted not to run in this solid blue seat based out of western Palm Beach County. Two democrats are running in this primary, which is open to all voters. Tina Polsky has generated the bulk of institutional support and stands at a strong fundraising lead. Her opponent, Mindy Koch, a democratic club leader, did better than expected in a State Senate run last year – pulling in 41% against State Rep Kevin Rader. However, its not clear how much of Koch’s support was just opposition to Rader. In addition, her best areas in that senate run are outside this house seat.
House District 84 – DEM and GOP (District Map)
This is the only state house seat held by Democrats that voted for Trump. The district moved from Obama to a narrow 49%-47% Trump victory. The seat is open and both parties have primaries. No clear frontrunner seems to exist for the democratic primary. Incumbent Larry Lee is backing Delores Hogan Johnson. Another candidate, Kim Johnson, is a former St Lucie commissioner. Two additional candidates, Forest Blanton and Robert Joseph, are also in the race. No candidate has blown past the others with fundraising and spending has overall been low (no one topping $35,000).
On the GOP side, businessman Mark Gotz has infused his campaign with $20,000 and only raised five. Former teacher Theresa Pinney has only raised $1,000 and self-funded $10,000. Gotz should be favored just based on money.
These are amazingly sleepy primaries for a seat that should be contested in November. I’ll be watching to see who wins before making predictions for the fall.
House District 89 – GOP Primary (District Map)
This seat, located on the southern Coast of Palm Beach County, flipped from Romney to Clinton in 2016. The seat is also open thanks to term limits. Republicans are in the middle of a bitter primary for the seat. Matt Spritz, a laywer and legislative worker, is facing off against CPA Mike Caruso. Spritz seems to have more institutional backing, getting endorsements from assorted GOP officials, AIF, and FMA. He has actually broken with the party a bit, supporting marijuana legalization and stronger gun regulations. Caruso is running a more traditional Republican campaign and has hammered Spritz for facebook posts 3 years ago that were critical of Trump. Both sides have engaged in a nasty campaign that could damage the nominee in the fall. The affair has also been expensive, generating hundreds of thousands of dollars in spending. Democrats are almost sure to nominate Ocean Ridge politician Jim Bonfiglio, who will be a strong candidate for the party in the fall. Spritz is the stronger candidate for the general and Democrats are likely hoping for a Caruso win.
House District 92 – DEM (Universal) (District Map)
This district is featuring a rematch of sorts in this heavily Democratic seat. Incumbent Patricia Hawkins-Williams won a 4-way primary in 2016 with 33% of the vote. She is being challenged by Paulette V. Armstead, who got 27% that same election. The 2016 primary was a 4-way fight while this one is one-on-one. Hawkins has only raised $35,000 so far, while Armstead has raised $6,000 and self-financed another $27,000. The primary is open to all voters. Both candidates are African-American and while the Democratic primary is just over 50% black, a universal-open primary is only around 35% black. The district combines African-American communities like NW Pompano with huge white retiree communities like Century Village and Palm Aire. Armestead won these retiree areas in 2016. It’s hard to peg who has a real advantage. Hawkins-Williams has a base in Lauderdale-Lakes, where she served as a commissioner, while NW Pompano (which went to another candidate in 2016) could decide the race.
House District 96 – DEM (Universal) (District Map)
Incumbent Democrat Kristen Jacobs is facing a primary challenge Saima Farooqui, a democratic activist who hopes to become the first Muslim state legislator. Her primary challenge, spurred by the election of Trump and a desire to see more diversity in government, has been largely cordial toward Jacobs. It does appear progressive groups would prefer Farooqui to the more left-of-center Jacobs. However, Jacobs is a largely popular longtime politician in the area, and in an open primary (no one qualified for the general) the 1/4 of the district that are Republicans are more likely to back her. This district includes Parkland, which was rocked by the school shooting earlier this year. The margin and any geographic differences in the vote are worth keeping an eye on here.
House District 97 – DEM (Universal) (District Map)
Just like Saima Farooqui in HD96, Imtiaz Ahmad Mohammad is running for state house as part of an effort from Muslim Americans to increase their representation in government during an era of hostility from the President. Mohammad is challenging Incumbent Jared E. Moskowitz in the democratic primary for HD97. Like the HD96 race, the campaign appears to be cordial. However, Mohammad is not gathering some of the backing Farooqui has received. This is likely due to Moskowitz’s role in the response to the Parkland shooting. Moskowitz served on Parkland’s city council and had strong ties to the school and community. He became the face of the call for reform to gun laws and school safety. His passion earned him wide praise as the perfect example of a legislative advocate. The district borders Parkland but also stretches halfway down Broward’s western border. This race is also open to all voters with Republicans making up around 1/5 of registration. Moskowitze should easily win – the curious question will be how much better he does than Jacobs in HD96. Also it will be interesting to see how he does in communities close to Parkland vs further away.
House District 98 – DEM (District Map)
Democrat Katie Edwards, who has angered Democrats with conservative positions, decided to retire rather than run for re-election in this solidely Democratic seat located in Broward County’s cities of Davie, Plantation and Sunrise. Five democrats are running – but three have notable campaigns. Elaine Geller is a mairjuana activists who has raised $12,000 and self-funded $30,000 more. Michael Gottlieb is a defense attorney who has raised $100,000 and self-funded $50,000. Andrew Dolberg has raised $67,000 and self-funded $25,000. Gottlieb has the backing of the Progressive Caucus and Sun Sentinel while Doldberg has the backing of state senator Lauren Book. Gottlieb has faced controversy for sum of the unseemly clients he has defended but backers have pointed out that is the role of lawyers in the justice system. The race feels like its a fight between Dolberg and Gottlieb. Whoever wins will easily hold the seat for team blue.
House District 103 – DEM (District Map)
Two democrats are fighting for this overwhelmingly Hispanic and over 40% Cuban state house district. Despite backing Clinton by a 58-39 margin, the heavy Cuban base still give Republicans a chance to hold the seat in November. The seat is based in Hialeah Gardens and goes into Broward County. Frank Mingo will be the Republican nominee. Meanwhile, Cindy Polo and Rick Tapia are fighting it out to see who will represent Democrats. Tapia has run for city council in Miami before while Polo is a newcomer who said the Parkland shootings inspired her to run. The race has been fairly quiet but Polo has gotten backing from the Miami Herald and Bernie Sanders. Whoever wins will need to ramp up fundraising (each raised under $30,000) to have a shot in November. The seat will be a tossup in the fall.
House District 108 – DEM (District Map) (2016 Primary Map)
Democratic Incumbent Roy Hardemon won his HD108 seat, which includes Little Haiti, Liberty City, and is one the most Democratic seats in the state, with just 22% of the vote in a democratic primary. This was despite over 10 arrests, include for domestic violence as recent as 2014. Hardemon’s past and his rough style has made him the Democrat other democrats don’t like to talk about. Hardemon faces two primary challengers. The biggest threat is Dotie Joseph, an Ivy League attorney with strong ties in the Haitian community (a big plus in a 25% Haitian seat) who has raised $140,000. Joseph was also elected vice-chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party. Immigration consultant Joseph Beauvil is also in the race; raising $30,000 and self-funding $25,000 more, and has attacked Hardemon directly for his arrests. Hardemon, who’s only raised $40,000 and drew major enemies with teachers unions for backing the GOP charter school bill, is lashing out at the party; claiming he’s being lynched by Miami-Dade Democrats. The split of the anti-Hardemon vote could help the incumbent. However, his weak base of support and little money makes him far more likely to lose than hold on.
House District 109 – DEM (Universal) (District Map)
This primary does not appear to be that competitive on paper. Cedric McMinn is the strong frontrunner to win the democratic primary for this 80% Democratic, 50% African-American, 45% Hispanic seat. He faces former State Representative James Bush III, who had left the state house to unsuccessfully run for state senate in 2012. Both democrats are African-Americans. McMinn has the backing off term-out State Rep Cynthia Stafford and has raised $143,000. Bush, meanwhile, has only brought in around $30,000. If McMinn wins, he will be the first openly gay black man elected to the State House. The primary is open to all voters since no one qualified for the general. The seat is over 65% registered Democrat and only 8% registered Republican.
House District 113 – DEM (District Map)
All three Democrats running for this solid-blue seat located in Miami-Beach have some skeletons that are coming out in full force in this heated primary. Attorney Kubs Lalchandani is being attacked for mistakes made by a plastic surgery firm he represented. Former Miami Beach Commissioner Deede Weithorn is being attacked for embellishing her education background. Finally, former Miami Beach Commissioner Michael Grieco had the must public of falls when his Mayoral campaign in 2017 was tanked by revelations he set up a political committee with the goal of raising foreign donations. Greico plead no contest and resigned from his then-City Commission seat. All three candidates have between $100,000 and $200,000 and the campaign has had some nasty moments. Whoever wins will still be a lock in the general thanks to the district backing Clinton 67-30.
House District 115 – GOP (District Map)
This majority Hispanic district located in southeastern Miami-Dade features an uber-expensive GOP primary for the right to succeeded Incumbent Republican Michael Bileca. Vance Aloupis, who has a good deal of institutional backing as well as the endorsement from Bileca, has raised $300,000. Jose Fernandez has raised $110,000 and self-funded $280,000 additional funds. Rhonda Lopez has raised $80,000 and self-funded $200,000. The district is 65% Hispanic and half of 57% of those voters are Cuban. Fernandez is the only Cuban in the race and has accused Aloupis of trying to imply he’s Cuban himself. Meanwhile, Rhonda Lopez has been accused of using her last name to claim she is Hispanic (she is white and married a Hispanic man). The extent to which any of these accusations is true is debatable. The primary may be the most expensive in the state.
The winner should face Democrat Jeffrey Solomon, who has an underfunded primary challenger. The district backed Clinton 53-43 after backing Romney in 2012; reflecting the poor performance of Trump with Cuban voters. However, as always with Miami-Dade, its important to remember GOP strength down-ballot. The seat is a likely tossup in the fall.
House District 119 – GOP (District Map)
Based in western Dade, this open Hispanic-majority seat has swung further to Democrats at the top of the ticket, voting for Clinton by a 55-42 margin. However, like much of Miami-Dade, top of the ballot doesn’t tell the whole story. The Cuban population of the district, which hovers around 40%, are far more GOP down-ballot. Four Republicans are running, hoping to hold the seat for the GOP in the fall. Analeen Martinez, the daughter of Commissioner Joe Martinez, has out-raised all her opponents – taking in $245,000. While she insists she is her own candidate and her father maintains he didn’t even want her to run, accusations of “dynasty” have been thrown around in the race. Another twist is that candidate Bibiana Potestad has worked for Commissioner Juan Zapata – a foe of Commissioner Martinez. Attorney Juan Fernandez-Barquin and real estate agent Enrique Lopez have all raised 10s of thousands of dollars. Its hard to say for sure who is the frontrunner. Martinez has the name ID, but recent races in Dade have shown the dynasty attack can have legs. Democrat Heath Rassner will face the winner.
Local Elections
Duval Tax Collector Universal Primary
There is a special election for Duval County Tax Collector on Tuesday. Under the county/city consolidated government rules, all candidates run in a jungle primary with party affiliation listed. The top two go to a runoff, even if they are from the same party. The race has three prominent candidates running. Republicans have current State Rep Lake Ray, who’s raised $150,000; and former Property Appraiser Jim Overton, who’s raised $130,000. Republican councilman Doyle Carter has raised $90,000. Democrats have one candidate, former State Rep Mia Jones, who has $50,000. Jones should make the runoff thanks to partisan voting – the question being which Republican gets into the runoff.
Escambia County District 2 GOP Primary (District Map)
Incumbent Commissioner Doug Underhill drew national attention earlier this year when he referred to gun control marchers after Parkland as “little monsters”. The outburst is apparently part of a pattern of rough language from the commissioner. The result has been a primary challenge from businessman, and former federal employee under George W Bush, Alan McMillan. McMillan has raised nearly $100,000 to Underhill’s $50,000.
Orange County Mayor
Orange County, home to Orlando and Disney World, is the site of a mega-money fight for the County Mayor position. The race is non-partisan and has been held by Republican Teresa Jacobs for eight years. Democrats got a star recruit in Sheriff Jerry Demings. He faces two challengers – commissioner Pete Clarke and businessman Bob Panepinto. Demings should win at the end of the day. The question is if he secures 50% to avoid a runoff, or winds up in November.
Broward County School Board (District Maps)
Broward County’s school board has been under immense scrutiny since the Parkland School shooting. Issues have been raised about how the district dealt with the troubled kid that wound up being a school shooter and what prevention mechanisms could have been utilized. Scrutiny is especially high on the Superintendent Robert Runcie, who is not elected in Broward but rather appointed by the board. Democrats are largely aiming to protect their incumbents while Republicans have their choices – some of whom are simply Democrats who are challenging incumbents. Partisan issues aren’t really in play – rather issues revolve around the school board’s handling of events before and after the shooting. Thanks to @jonahwexler for help breaking these down
District 1
School Board District 1 is located in southeastern Broward. Its incumbent, Ann Murray, has 3 challengers, but Jim Silvernale is the most notable. Silvernale, who works for the Federation of Public Employees, was endorsed by the Sun Sentinel and is considered the strongest “change” candidate. Both he and Murray are Democrats, but Silvernale is preferred by Republicans. Murray is praised for her long tenure and lack fo scandal, but opponents argue she is not as engaged as she once was.
District 4
This district includes Parkland itself. Incumbent Abby Freedman opted to retire this year. Lori Alhadeff, who lost a child in the Parkland shooting, is considered a virtual lock to win the seat. She has raised a staggering $120,000 (much higher than your average school board fundraising) and her opponents are underfunded. Alhadeff was a Republican but became a Democrat after the shooting. Tennille Doe-Decoste, who’s son lost a friend in the shooting, has hit Alhadeff for the party switch (claiming it was political opportunism) but Alhadeff has said the switch was based on how the parties view gun control.
District 6
No race is as nasty as this one. Incumbent Laurie Rich Levinson, a fierce defender of the Superintendent, is being challenged by Richard Mendelson, a former teacher at MSD. Mendelson is running on the need for wholesale change. One of his best friends was Aaron Feis, an assistant football coach who was killed shielding students during the shooting. Mendelson is now a professor at Keiser University. Mendelson has the backing of Republicans, though Mendelson himself is more liberal. That said, Democrats in Broward have strongly backed Levinson. The race has been nasty and heated, with cops being called to early voting sites as supporters of the two sides clash.
District 7
Incumbent Nora Rupert is the lone anti-superintendent incumbent up for election. She represents a diverse district that includes white condos and prominent African-American communities. Her main challenger is Mikelange Olbel, who has the support of many African-American activists and has the backing of the Superintendent. This race will be interesting to watch. I expect a notable racial divide.
District 8 – At-Large
This race fields three candidates, all of whom have some controversy that gives voters pause. Incumbent Donna Korn, a Rick Scott appointee from years back, was a Republican but switched to NPA earlier this year. The Broward Democratic Party actually endorsed her in the race. Korn is not a polished candidate and stepped in it when she proclaimed what a good school year it had been (referencing academic numbers). Of course to families in Parkland this was NOT a good year. This caused Korn to been seen as out-of-touch. Her most fordable challenger is Ryan Petty, who lost his 14 year old daughter in the Parkland shooting. Petty is backed by Republican officials and the party and has drawn criticism for controversial social media posts and his support for assault rifles. He is much less of a concesus candidate than Lori Alhadeff is in district 4. Elijah Manley, the lone African-American in the race, is running on a very liberal platform that has some good ideas (like year round lunches) but has a social media filled with insults, far-left attacks, and overall being abrasive. The Sun Sentinel has backed Korn in the race. Petty has raised $65,000 to Korn’s $40,000 – neither have enough to really talk to all likely voters countywide. Earned media is shaping this race. A runoff is likely.
Conclusions
There will be plenty to watch on Tuesday!