Here we are, it is Primary Day in Florida and I have Part 3 of my massive preview ready to go. Today’s issue will cover the State House primaries and some select local races of note. If you missed it, these are my previous previews over the last week.

Lets start with State House!

State House

We have a slew of primaries for house seats across Florida. Some of these will be tantamount to the election, while others will set the stage for November races. For details on districts, you can view these articles

I’m going to hit key points on each contested primary. Some here will have far more coverage that others, depending on available information and how much they matter in terms of determining the like representative.

Btw the very first two primaries discussed here have lots to be said, but you will see that after those, many districts gave shorter rundowns. But these first two just have lots of juicy tea to discuss.

House 13 Democratic Primary

In this black-majority state house district covering western Jacksonville, progressive Democrat Angie Nixon is running for a third term. The Jacksonville Democratic base in a mix of multiple coalitions; from white progressives, younger black liberals, and more conservative-oriented Black churches. As such, several primaries for state and local offices have played out with this dynamic. Nixon first burst onto the scene in 2020 when she defeated right-wing Kim Daniels in the Democratic primary. I discussed Kim Daniels way back in 2018, dubbing her the worst democrat In Florida. Give this a read for more backstory on Jacksonville politics.

Nixon faces a primary challenge from her right in Brenda Priestly Jackson, a former Jacksonville councilwoman. Jackson hails from the older establishment, including the more conservative voting blocks, and has long had good relations with Republicans. Jackson has attacked Nixon for not being effective at brining home projects to the district by not cozying up to DeSantis and Republican leaders. Nixon has countered one “cannot play respectability politics with people who not only do not like you but don’t want your communities to exist.” Nixon, who led a sit-in when the legislature passed its 2022 Congressional map that erased the Black-access 5^th Congressional district, has framed herself as a warrior against the far-right Governor DeSantis. In 2023, after domestic terrorist killed three black residents in Jacksonville in a racially-motivated attack, DeSantis crashed the press conference arranged by Black leaders – you know – because he totally cared. The photo of Nixon, clearly annoyed, glaring at Ronny, made national headlines.

Meanwhile, Jackson has made no secret of her alliance with Republicans, who have funded money into her campaign. Jackson has also claimed that a write-in filed was designed to keep the primary closed to just democrats; saying she wants Republicans and independents to be able to vote in the district. This of course is not a smart thing to say when currently only democrats can vote in your race.

Nixon is heavily favored to win the primary. Nixon has a great deal of Democrats consolidated around her, and in 2022 she easily won against a lesser-funded challenger. Jackson, despite getting some GOP money, has still only brought in around $30,000. Nixon, meanwhile, has raised over $120,000.

House 14 Democratic Primary

Located right next door to HD13, District 14 is a Black-majority district covering North-Central Jacksonville. The seat is currently held by none other than Kim Daniels! After Daniels lost to Nixon in 2020, she ran for the newly-drawn 14 in 2020 and won a 4-way primary with 48% of the vote. Daniels’ controversies are many, but she still had name-ID and a strong base in the churches.

Daniels was widely seen as likely to launch a primary bid again against State Senator Tracie Davis. In fact, through 2023 and 2024, Daniels opted to take a less controversial approach in the legislature. Daniels used to be a reliable vote on abortion-restrictions, anti-LGBT discourse, and other social conservative priorities. However, through the major legislative debates of “Don’t Say Gay” and abortion-bans, Daniels either stuck with the democratic caucus or was notably “absent” during votes. This is viewed, I believe correctly, as Daniels simply angling to be more careful and less flamboyantly conservative; but still holding more conservative views. Regardless, Daniels would eventually opt not to primary Davis is instead running for re-election. She has two opponents.

Pastor Lloyd Caulker is actually running to her RIGHT; praising Ron DeSantis as a “great leader.” Caulker very much couches his rhetoric in religion, saying he was divinely inspired to run by Jesus Christ himself. Caulker oddly has reported no money raised or spent, but paid a qualifying fee from the account; so something is off.

Daniels’ other opponent is entrepreneur Therese V. Wakefield-Gamble, who has campaigned while talking about the medical struggles she overcame to be able to run for office, namely several surgeries to relieve a unruptured brain aneurysm. She has hit Daniels for, as she sees it, not doing enough to bring funding to the district and cover its needs. She has received support from pro-choice groups and left-of-center orgs that would prefer Daniels gone. Thanks to online fundraising efforts, Gamble has managed to raised $22,000 vs Daniels’ $33,000.

Daniels has definitely been aiming to back away from her conservative past, but Gamble has hit her on many of these issues. One notable example of Daniels backtracking was her distancing herself from the DeSantis education standards that aimed to tout the “benefits of slavery.” Daniels was hit on this because she was part of the board the examined possible changes. While she insisted she was not part of that final determination, it was pointed out she’d once said “thank God for slavery” because otherwise she’d be “worshipping a tree in Africa.”

Daniels has tried to maintain a lower profile in the last few years. She used to fully embrace the right-wing preacher bit that had won her office many times. Amid changing primary politics, following a blowout 2020 loss, Daniels clearly wants to tact more to the center. However, she has a long list of controversy. However, as 2022 showed, she still has many voters willing to side with her. We will see what happens this time.

House 18 Republican Primary

This seat covers the north end of St. Johns county, covering many rich exurbs of Jacksonville. This seat is deep red, educated, and wealthy. While it has trended to the left, it remains heavily in the Republican column. Two Republicans are running for the open seat. The Republican establishment pick is Nick Primrose, who is a former general counsel to both Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott. His opponent is businesswoman Kim Kendall, who has run much more as an anti-establishment conservative. Primrose has most major endorsements, including from DeSantis and Scott. Kendall, however, does have local ties, including endorsements from the St. Johns Tax collector, and got 30% in a primary for a similar seat back in 2012 in a 3-way race. Primrose has raised around $400,000 vs Kendall’s $200,000 ($75K of that is a loan). While Primrose should be the favorite, Kendall has a chance.

House 19 Republican Primary

Just south of HD18, covering Flagler county and St Johns’ southern coast, another two-way Republican primary is ongoing for a deep red seat. This district is help by Speaker Paul Renner, who is termed out this year. Renner has endorsed Sam Greco, a former naval officer judge advocate general. Greco has raised over $270,000 and garnered endorsements from across the house GOP caucus. Originally, retired physician James St. George was running for the seat, and had self-funded well over $500,000 for his bid; but he opted not to qualify. I honestly cannot say for sure if this was due to the Renner endorsement or other matters (I cannot find any reports on it). One Republican remains in the race against Greco, Darryl Boyer, who has raised $80,000. Boyer has support that largely stems from the Flagler portion of the district; getting several endorsements from there. Among registered Republicans Flagler has twice as many Republicans; so we will see if those Flagler endorsements can carry Boyer.

House 20 Republican Primary

This deep-red district covers many of the rural communities just south of Jacksonville’s metro area; namely Putnam county and parts of Flagler, Clay, and Marion. Two Republicans are vying for the seat, but there is a clear frontrunner. Former Congressional candidate Judson Sapp has dominated with endorsements and raised over $300,000. His opponent is City of Welaka Mayor Jamie Watts, who has only raised $20,000 and loaned another $25,000. Watts originally had the endorsement of outgoing State Rep Bobby Paine, but that was withdrawn after it was revealed Watts has been sued for sexual harassment relating to sexting with a former city hall employee. Expect an easy Sapp win here.

House District 22 Republican and Democratic Primary

Both parties have primaries for this open state house seat. This district, which narrowly voted for Trump, is a result of the legislature gerrymandering Gainesville and Alachua County. The legislature cracked Alachua County three ways, instead of two, and allowed some of the blue portions of Gainesville to be added to rural, red Gilchrist and Levy Counties. The seat voted for Trump by 1%.

On the Democratic side, the clear frontrunner is former Gainesville Commissioner David Arreola. Originally elected to the commission in 2017 with a strong base around University of Florida, Arreola ran for Mayor in 2022 but lost to fellow Democrat Harvey Ward. Arreola has raised $83,000. His opponent is first time candidate Amy Trask, who has some support in the environmental community and argues for a fresh face, but she has only managed to take in $10,000.

On the Republican side; three candidates are fighting it out. Raemi Eagle-Glenn, who was briefly an Alachua Commissioner after being appointed by DeSantis and then lost by 17 points in the regular election, has raised $85,000. Then we have Chad Johnson, a former Levy County Commissioner, who has raised $162,000. Finally, Robert Woody, a former Alachua County Republican Committeeman, has raised $44,000. In this district, 23K Republicans are in Alachua, 17K in Levy, and 9K in Gilchrist. Johnson may well be the favorite with the most cash and a rural base that could unite against an Alachua divide. This seat has been in the hands of Alachua Republicans for a good deal of time.

House 26 Republican Primary

A four-way Republican primary is underway for this Northern Lake County seat being vacated by Keith Truenow in his Senate 13 bid. The race has not generated many headlines. Mike Levine, the former Lake County Republican Chair, so far has been the biggest spender; raising just $25,000 but loaning his campaign $150,000. Levine also has the backing of far-right former State Rep Anthony Sabantini, who is the current Lake GOP Chair. Nan Cobb is a former city commissioner for the town of Eustic and she has raised over $80,000 and loaned another $25,000. Realtor Addie Owens has managed to raise a solid $53,000 and also loaned $25,000. Activist Keith Farner has only raised $10,000. Nothing especially distinguishes the candidates; with Levine and Cobb the likely frontrunners.

House 27 Republican Primary

Covering Northeast Lake, western Volusia, and Southern Marion, this solid-red and more rural seat has three Republicans running. Attorney Richard Gentry, who severed on the Florida Public Counsel, leads in money with $200,000 raised and another $80,000 in loans. He has been hit for only recently moving back into the district; specifically the Volusia portion. His biggest opponent is businessman Steve Shives, who has raised only $25,000 but loaned his campaign another $175,000. Shives has run as culture-war conservative, especially taking issues with removing monuments. Shives is also the uncle of neighboring state rep Ryan Chamberlin and has his nephew’s endorsement. Shives also has the backing of Lake GOP Chair Anthony Sabatini. Retired law enforcement officer Beckie Sirolli trails with under $20,000. Both Sirolli and Shives have attacked Gentry as a “Tallahassee insider” and pointed to the many PACs backing him. Gentry has also been hit over utility rate hikes, something the FPC overviews (but does not set the rates). Shives meanwhile has just recently taken hits for accepting $500 from Vote Men PAC, a far-right group that argues only men should run for office. Shives is clearly positioned as the far-right candidate and its likely between him and Gentry.

House 32 Republican Primary

A major heavyweight fight is underway for this central Brevard house seat, which is vacated by the term-limited Thad Altman. State Senator Debbie Mayfield, herself termed out, is running for this overlapping house seat. Yes that is right, the Florida term limits only apply to the current office you hold. This is not the first time a state senator has gone down the ballot to remain in the legislature; as its something Altman himself did back in 2016. Mayfield was originally in the State House and then won a very contentious primary for State Senate in 2016. That year she defeated fellow Representative Ritch Workman thanks to wracking up big margins in her Indian River County base.

Mayfield may have been a candidate for the Congressional District 8 race, but the back-room shenanigans of that race stopped her (see my Congressional preview for more). Mayfield likely would have been the lock for the seat, but first she must get past Dave Weldon, who is a former US Congressman!

Weldon served in Congress from 1995 to 2009. A physician by trade, Weldon left Congress to return to his practice. While in Congress, Weldon was a steadfast religious conservative vote; and was high-profile in the infamous Terri Shiavo case. In 2012, Weldon ran for US Senate, but only got 20% statewide in the Republican primary; losing to Connie Mack Jr. That said, he did get over 50% in Brevard.

Mayfield has argued that in going to the house, she will be a good resource for house freshman on the process. She also argues her recent experience in the legislature will ensure the area has an experienced member to steer resources to the district; which has seen major investment in Indian River Lagoon. Mayfield is boosted by having the backing of Donald Trump.

Both candidates have a slew of major endorsements. Weldon has the backing of outgoing Rep Thad Atlman, Brevard Sheriff Wayne Ivey, retiring Rep Bill Posey, and CD8 frontrunner Mike Haridopolis. Mayfield, in addition to Trump, as the backing of Marco Rubio and a large chunk of Brevard’s countywide officials. Weldon has raised at least $180,000 for his bid while Mayfield over $3000,000 at least. Mayfield also is chairwoman of “Conservatives for Good Government” – an election committee around for several years and currently spending 6-figures on races. How much of this is in this race vs others is not clear to me. This is definitely an expensive and high-profile race.

House 33 Republican Primary

Covering South Brevard, four Republicans are running for this seat being vacated by Randy Fine. The frontrunner appears to be cybersecurity analyst Monique Miller, who also sits on the board of the far-right Moms for Liberty group. Miller has raised $80,000 and loaned another $100,000. Software engineer Erika Orriss has only raised $20,000 but like Miller has also loaned $100,000. Candidates Mike Limongello and Logan Luse both fall under $50,000 in funds. Not nearly as high-profile as a race as HD32.

House 35 Republican Primary

Back in January of this year, House 35 was the home of a special election that saw Democrat Tom Keene FLIP the seat after he defeated Osceola School Board member Erica Booth. I wrote about this here.

The district, which backed Biden by 5 points, was vacated when incumbent Fred Hawkins resigned early. Despite the loss, Booth is running again for the regular election. However, before she can take on Keen in November, she must defeat realtor and first-time candidate Laura Gomez McAdams. While Booth leads in fundraising and has the Republican establishment backing, McAdams has said Booth already had her chance and lost. Booth has raised $70,000 vs McAdams’ $35,000; and the FL GOP has done $60,000 of in-kind work to back her. Either winner will still likely start as underdogs against Keen in November.

House 41 Democratic Primary

In this black-access seat located in central Orlando, an open democratic primary is being held between Incumbent Bruce Antone and challenger Jane’t Buford Johnson. Both candidates are Black. Antone has been in and out of the state house since 2002; recently returning to the house in 2022 when he won a crowded race over Incumbent Travaris McCurdy; who’d been elected unopposed in 2020.

This race is incredibly low profile and low in cash. Antone has raised just $20,000 and Johnson just $6,000. Johnson opted to run for the legislature after 2022’s Hurricane Ian led to historic flooding in the Orlo Vista community. Perhaps the biggest story of the race is legitimate questions about if Antone actually lives in the district. A complaint was filed that showed Antone’s qualifying paperwork listed his house; which was not in the district. When this was brought to his attention, the paperwork was updated to list his residence as an apartment owned by one of his aids. The original story on this also revealed the bizarre situation where Antone’s daughter has, over the years, received payments for campaign work starting when she was just a child. Antone has not been open to discussing much of this. This has been a quiet campaign; but Antone could definitely lose if enough voters have caught wind of the issues.

House 44 Democratic Primary

This seat is a Hispanic-plurality district located in southern Orange County. This deep blue seat has a rematch from 2022. That year, Incumbent Democrat Daisy Morales lost her primary to now-incumbent Rita Harris.

Morales lost her 2022 primary thanks to alienating many members of the caucus in her first two years in the seat; off and on siding with Republicans on issues and largely disengaged from party affairs. In her primary, Morales relied on financial help from Republicans, but it was not enough to fend off Harris. While Morales is trying to take back her seat, this will almost surely end in failure. Harris has raised $100,000 and retains strong Democratic support. Morales, meanwhile, has not even managed to crack $2,000 in fundraising. All she has is a personal loan of $25,000. Back in 2022, she loaned her campaign $50,000 despite financial disclosures indicated she did not have that much money to loan. I can’t say if that is the same case here because Morale’s disclosure documents are a mess.

The 2022 primary was open to all voters, as is this years. However, it will be heavily dominated by Democrats. While Morales worked to garner GOP voters in 2022, it wasn’t enough then, and it won’t be enough now.

House 46 Democratic & Republican Primary

Both parties have primaries for this Majority-Hispanic, heavily Democrat seat based in western Osceola County. Two Republicans, Christian De La torre and Michael Cruz, are running and neither have raised over $5,000 and stand no chance in the general. Meanwhile, four Democrats are facing off for this seat being vacated by Incumbent Kristen Arrington

The Democratic frontrunner is easily former Kissimmee Mayor Jose Alvarez, who also recently served as a regional administration for the Department of Housing and Urban development. He’s raised $62,000 and loaned his campaign another $35,000. The only other candidate to spend significant money is veteran advocate Robert LeWayne Johnson; who has loaned his campaign $30,000 and has especially campaigned on the issue of criminalizing homelessness, something that effects many veterans. Johnson is the only Black candidate in the race. Likely primary voters will be 40% Hispanic, 25% white, and 25% Black. Educator Jacqueline Centeno is also running and campaigning on anti school privatization, but has raised under $10,000. Finally, Vanessa Alvarez, wife of a current Kissimmee commissioner, is also running but raised under $5,000. While there may be worry about the “Alvarez” name leading to confusion between Jose and Vannessa, her lack of a major campaign likely mitigates that.

House 47 Democratic Primary

This Hispanic-Majority district in northern Osceola and southern Orange voted for Biden by 13 points. However, in 2022, amid a massive Republican advantage in turnout, Ron DeSantis won this district and Republican Paula Stark narrowly won the seat. However, with turnout expected to be much less imbalanced with the Presidential election, Democrats see this as a very strong pickup opportunity. Three democrats are running.

The 2022 nominee, Anthony Nieves, is running again, as his 2022 defeated primary candidate Andrew Jeng. The third candidate, Maria Revelles, is running for office for the first time. She hails from Puerto Rico itself; something that could aid her in a seat with such a large Puerto Rican population. No candidate has raised tremendous cash, with Nieves taking in $12,000 and loaning $15,000; Jeng raising $11,000; and Revelles raising $20,000. Incumbent Stark is only sitting on $60,000 herself; well below most Republican incumbents. Money has not flowed into this district yet.

House 48 Republican Primary

In House District 48, a Republican-leaning seat based in Southeast Polk County, six Republicans are fighting for the nomination. Frostproof Mayor Jon Albert has raised just $11,000; but loaned his campaign $50,000 more. In addition, at least two PACs, “Keep Florida Winning and “Make American Great Again PAC” have been sending out texts and mailers for Albert. Jerry Carter, a former County Commissioner from back in the 1990s and a current real estate broker, has raised $30,000 and loaned himself $25,000. Chad Davis, an attorney for the Polk Superintendent, has raised over $60,000. Amilee Marie Stuckey, an attorney and former Polk County Republican Committeewoman, has raised $32,000. Activists Deborah ‘Debbie’ Owens and Benny Valentin have brought in little cash; then Owens has loaned her campaign $15,000. The primary has largely been defined by drama around Albert’s outside support; with him and Davis clashing. Who pulls out on top is anyone’s guess.

House 49 Republican Primary

Four Republicans are fighting for this southwestern Polk County district. Jennifer Kincart Jonsson, who’s family owns a waste-management business in the area, has garnered endorsements and raised $290,000. Realtor Shawn Curtis McDonough has raised $110,000 and loaned another $75,000. Legal mediator Heather McArthur has raised $80,000. Finally, Randy Wilkinson, who was a Polk County commissioner until 2010, has raised just $10,000 and loaned $25,000. Honestly this race is just a bunch of Republicans arguing they’d be the best Republican; nothing exciting.

House 56 Republican Primary

Back in 2022, Brad Yeager won a contentious 3-way primary for this coastal Pasco County seat. This year, Yeager should easily over a long-shot bid from retired veteran Kirk Phillips; who refers to himself as “Captain Kirk – but not THAT Captain Kirk.” Yeager has the backing of Ron DeSantis and has raised $80,000. Phillips, who has little obvious support, has raised no money and self-funded $15,000. This should be a easy Yeager win.

House 65 Democratic Primary

Two Democrats are facing off for the right to take on Incumbent Republican Karen Gonzalez Pittman in this Biden +4 seat covering South Tampa. The democratic frontrunner is businesswoman Ashley Brundage, who has raised $68,000. If elected, Brundage will be Florida first Transgender representative. Recently she secured the endorsement of Ruth’s List Florida, an organization that supports pro-choice women in Florida. The primary has been fairly low key and candidate Nathan Kuipers has raised $18,000. Brundage is very likely to advance and expect to see me cover this much more in the fall.

House 67 Republican Primary

Two Republicans are in a primary for the right to lose to Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell in this Biden +20 seat. Lisette Bonano has raised $12,000 while Ronrico Smith has raised $30,000. Deskell sits on $170,000. Waste of time.

House 72 Republican Primary

Four Republicans are facing off for this eastern Manatee County house seat. Former Manatee Planning Commission William Conerly leads in fundraising with $150,000. School board member Rich Tatem has $20,000 and loaned another $30,000. Alyssa Gay has raised $40,000 and loaned another $20,000. Finally, Richard Green has raised $25,000.

House 74 Republican Primary

In this western Sarasota seat, incumbent James Buchanan, son of Congressman Buchanan, has a primary challenger. Buchanan was elected to the House in November 2018 to HD74 after initially losing a special election earlier that year for the then-HD72. The special election loss to Democrat Margaret Good did not deter James, who ran for a redder seat several months alter. Buchanan has had little trouble since then. His primary opponent is far-right Michelle Pozzie, who is part of a Michael Flynn wing of the party that has been making inroads in the county. However, Pozzie has raised just $17,000 to Buchanan’s $180,000.

House 76 Republican Primary

District 76, which covers northern Lee County and DeSoto county, has a very one-sided primary ongoing. Vanessa Oliver, who is the CEO of an ambulance service company, has raised $115,000 for the race. Her lone primary opponent is Steven Ceracche, who manages food safety at Green Life Farms, has not cracked $10,000 in fundraising.

House 81 Republican Primary

Two Republicans are facing off in this district that covers coastal Collier County. This is the land of Naples, Marco Island, and basically just really rich Republicans. As such, the money being spent here is insanely high. Marco Island City councilman Greg Folley has raised basically ONE MILLION DOLLARS for this race; with about $600,000+ of it being his own money.

His opponent is Yvette Benarroch, the head of the Collier County Mom’s for Liberty group and a well connected politico. Benarroch has the backing of Congressman Byron Donalds, Marco Rubio and Rick Scott; and many other prominent Republican figures. She has raised $200,000 and loaned another $75,000. The race is framed as Benarroch’s stronger political connections vs Folley’s money. We will see which wins out.

House 89 Democratic Primary

Two Democrats are facing off to replaced termed-out Democratic David Silvers. This Palm Beach County district is now Majority-Hispanic in terms of the census, but is still not majority-Hispanic in terms of voting power. Registered Democrats in the district are a near three-way tie between Hispanic, Black, and white voters; but in terms of actual turnout, the primary will likely be majority white.

Destinie Baker Sutton has raised $80,000 and has the support of Silvers. Debra Tendrich has raised $44,000 and has the backing of Congresswoman Lois Frankel. Both candidates have long lists of supporters and institutional support.

Once a nominee is decided, they will face 2022 Republican nominee Daniel Zapata, who came within 5% of Silvers as DeSantis narrowly took this district. Despite being a Biden +20 seat, like so many others, it saw a big turnout gap in 2022 that allowed the Republican to gain alot of ground. Democrats are hoping to fix turnout dynamics this year.

House 94 Republican Primary

This district covers the west half of Palm Beach County, covering a mix of different towns and a large swath of farmland. It voted for Biden by 0.1% and Republic Rick Roth is termed out. Four Republicans are running to take on Democrat Rachelle Litt in November; who currently sits on over $130,000. This race will be a focus in November.

Meg Weinberger, who runs an animal sanctuary, has raised $500,000 through her main account and a political committee; plus a $50,000 loan. She also has the endorsement of Matt Gaetz and Donald Trump; going by the moniker “Mega Meg.” Her closest rival in cash is healthcare businessman Anthony Aguirre; who has raised $300,000 and loaned another $80,000. Aguirre also has the endorsement of Ron DeSantis. Two other candidates are Christian F. Acosta, who’s raised $50,000, and Gabrielle M. Fox, who’s raised $12,000.

House 98 Democratic Primary

Four Democrats are running for this racially-diverse House seat. This primary is open to all voters, meaning it will likely be plurality white.

The race is especially notable as the two likely frontrunners for the district are both openly LGBT. Oakland Park Mayor Mitch Rosenwald has $62,000 and loaned another $30,000. He also has the backing of Equality Florida. Emily Rodrigues, a former aid the Shev Jones and advocate for sexual assault victims, has the backing of SAVE PAC (an LGBT organization) and has raised $35,000. While Rosenwald has endorsements like Jared Moskowitz and Ft Lauderdale Mayor Dean Trantalis, Rodrigues has support from Shev Jones and Ruth’s List Florida.

US Army veteran Keith Abel has raised $6,000 and loaned another $8,000; while former Pompano City Commission candidate Shelton A. Pooler has raised just $3,000. The race very much feels like a contest between Rosenwald and Rodrigues.

House 99 Democratic Primary

In this majority-Black district located in Central Broward, incumbent Daryl Campbell has a primary from first time candidate Joshauwa Brown. This isn’t much of a race, with Brown only raising $2,000 to Campbell’s $75,000.

House 106 Republican Primary

Ok, I need to not get bogged down in a rabbit-hole with this primary. Fabian Basabe is the incumbent Republican in this seat and has a primary challenger. He is very likely to win this primary, but the general election is going to get a full coverage article from me. Basabe is a bonkers state representative. His very-narrow win in 2022 was very much due to the red wave that occurred in the state. Basabe is self-described as LGBT, has been married to a woman since 2005, and voted for the expansion of Don’t Say Gay. He is hated by the LGBT community. His voting record has not been moderate considering he is in a solidly Biden district. He is also subject to a lawsuit from former male aids alleging sexual harassment. That lawsuit also details an aid saying they witnessed Basabe sexually assault a third party not named in suit.

He has a primary challenge from attorney Melinda Almonte, who has self-funded $40,000 for the bid. Fasabe has also raised $45,000 but has loaned his campaign $250,000. I can easily see Fasabe win the primary with a weak showing. He is extremely vulnerable in November when he will face off against Joe Saunders; a former State Representative from Orlando. Saunders was one of the first two LGBT State Representatives in Florida when he was elected in 2012. Like I said, I’ll be covering this race much more in the fall.

If Fasabe somehow loses that would be supremely funny. It would entirely be on protest votes.

House 107 Democratic Primary

This majority-Black district in northern Dade County has a sizeable Haitian population. Incumbent Christopher Benjamin is leaving the seat to run for judge. It has an open primary with six democrats running for the seat. Faudlin Pierre, a civil rights attorney that is the son of Haitian immigrants, has raised $70,000. Loreal Arscott, an attorney who chaired the Miami-Dade Independent Civilian Panel, a civilian oversithg tboard of the police, has raised $50,000. Wallace Aristide, a Haitian-born former principle who ran for County Commission in 2022, has raised $44,000. These seem like the clear frontrunners, with decent funding and ties that can propel a victory.

Wancito Francius, a Haitian immigrant who ran against Representative Benjamin in 2022 and lost in a landslide, has loaned his campaign $18,000. Francius got 19% in the 2022 race and has taken more conservative positions on issues like abortion. This time he has spent less money than in his 2022 run. Francius has also come under legal scrutiny for the fact he was registered as a Republican until July of 2023 (he’s changed it to Republican after losing the 2022 primary). Under Florida law, he needed to be a Democrat by one year before qualifying (which was June of 2024, so he needed to be a Democrat by June of 2023). However, the courts so far have ruled they have no authority to remove someone from the ballot and that the statute has vagueness issues.

Two additional candidates are Christine Sanon-Jules Olivo, who ran for Congress twice and has raised $25,000. He is Finally, Monique Barley-Mayo, who came in 5^th in the 2020 race for Miami-Dade Mayor, has loaned her campaign $10,000.

House 109 Democratic Primary

On paper, the three-way primary for this seat should be huge. House 109 is a Black-access seat that is technically majority-Hispanic, but due to voting strength favors black candidates. Democratic primaries for this deep-blue seat are over 60% Black for open primaries; which this one is.

Incumbent Ashley Gantt is running for-election after winning her seat in 2022. That year, she defeated incumbent Representative James Bush III, a very conservative and controversial member.

Bush was at the time easily the most conservative lawmaker in the Democratic caucus.

Only Democrat to vote for the anti-LGBT “Don’t Say Gay” Bill
Only Democrat to vote for 15 week abortion ban, which didn’t have rape/incest exemptions
Only Democrat to vote to ban transgender students from playing in sports
Only Democrat to vote to allow conceal carry guns into Churches
Only Democrat to vote against allowing smoke of marijuana for medical purposes (this was a bill to regulate the industry after the 2016 Amendment to legalize medical marijuana passed)
One of two Democrats to lower the corporate income tax

He was so out of step with the party that Senator Jason Pizzo called him DeSantis’ “Little Bitch” – which was 100% correct. I covered all of Bush’s horrible positions and statements here.

Bush is running to get his seat back. However, his campaign has been very quiet this go around. He’s only raised $11,000 and is likely counting on strong name-ID. He has been able to win races on the cheap before. That said, back in 2022 he raised over $70,000.

Joining Bush and Gannt is Roy Hardemon, a state representative from the old HD108. Hardemon, the uncle of Miami-Dade Commissioner Keon Hardemon, won a 2016 crowded primary with just —- of the vote. He lost re-nomination in 2018 to Dottie Joseph and has made several bids for office sense, always losing. Hardemon as a string of longtime legal issues and doesn’t have a big base of support. In his 2022 primary of Jospeh in HD108, he got just 20%. He’s raised just $4,000 for this bid.

I do expect Gannt, who sits on $80,000 in fundraising, to dispatch both Bush and Hardemon.

House 115 Republican Primary

A three way Republican primary for this Trump +2 Hispanic-Majority seat in southern Miami-Dade county is underway. A great degree of speculation has emerged around Alian Alejandro Collazo, who has raised $400,000 and loaned another $60,000 for the race, is close allies with State Senator Alexis Calatayud; being her former aid. Collazo, who initially lived in Tampa until recently, originally listed the Senator’s house as his primary residence. Since then Collazo has updated his residency, and inssis the issue stemmed from them working to find a place to buy/rent. This of course has raised attacks on Collazo regarding being a true candidate for the local community rather than just allies with other members.

Firefighter Omar Blanco has raise $140,000 for his effort. Blanco ran for Congress back in 2020, getting 40% against then Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez Blanco was recently attacked in mailers claimed he had endorsed Andrew Gillum in 2018; something that definitely does not appear to be true. Blanco has threatened to sue Collazo, who is behind the attacks, over the matter for defamation.

A third candidate, Moises Benhabib, a former State Department employee, has largely self-funded his race with $60,000.

—–

Local Elections

After looking through the newspapers I could and soliciting recommendations on Twitter (screw you Elon), these are some key local races I am going to be watching. I am absolutely missing some, and I cannot stress how this is being finished hours before going live. This is by no means an exhausting list. It is more about what caught my eye.

Targeted School Board Races

First things first, lets talk school boards. These races have become more contentious in Florida and across the country; all thanks to far-right efforts to dismantle education standards and force a socially conservative worldview. DeSantis and the Republicans of Florida have been heavily invested in school board races sense 2022. Now Florida Democrats are fighting back.

Several weeks ago, the Florida Democratic Party announced a list of races they were focused on. You can see the full list here. Meanwhile, this article shows which races DeSantis and Democrats are looking at. Finally, this article shows where DeSantis team are especially focused. Use these resources to follow things. Post-primary I will aim to look back and see how things went.

Btw my county (Leon) is home to one of these fights. Leon School Board 4 has Democrat-aligned Jeremy Rogers challenging a Moms for Liberty incumbent Laurie Lawson Cox. I wrote a full article on that race here.

Miami-Dade County Mayor Non-Partisan Primary

Daniella Levine Cava is running for re-election as Miami-Dade Mayor. This race is contested on a non-partisan ballot. Cava, a liberal county commissioner, was elected Mayor in 2020, winning a race that heavily mirrored the Presidential result but saw some differences.

Under Miami-Dade rules, if Cava can get 50% in the first round, she can avoid a runoff. A full breakdown of her effort and her opponents can be seen here. Cava will for sure come in first. Her strongest challengers are Republican Manny Cid, the Mayor of Miami Lakes, and Alex Otaola, a conservative social media personality that rails against “Communism” infuriating Miami-Dade County. Cava dominates in money, but for her its about getting over 50%. She aims to repeat what Alex Penelas did back in 2000 when the Cuban Democrat avoided a runoff.

Yeah you really don’t see blue Hialeah these days anymore. That is like seeing blue West Virginia.

Lake County Republican Primary for Supervisor of Elections

Alan Hays was once a solidly right-wing State Senator. Then in 2016 he was elected the Lake County Supervisor of Elections. Contrary to his Senate career, Hays has received acclaim for running the office fairly and working to modernize equipment. Hays has also taken a role post-2020 as a major defender of election integrity. Hays has taken election deniers to task, refuting any claim the 2020 election was stole

“The biggest tragedy is the loss of confidence in the system that has been perpetrated on the American voter by these people that repeat lie after lie after lie multiple times.”

Hays is now being challenged in the Republican Primary by Tom Vail; who lost a 2022 primary for a state house seat by just 400 votes. Vail has claimed there is major fraud in elections and says he wants to get rid of mail and early voting, though state law would keep from him doing that. Vail is the worst type of person to run this office. Hays winning is a must. Hays has raised $55,000 to Vail’s $35,000.

Lake County Republican Primary for County Commission District 1

Also, in Lake County there is a big race for County Commission; which is elected at large. Former far-right Representative Athony Sabatini, who has shown up in these primary previews before, is running for Lake Commission. As I discussed in my Congressional preview, Sabatini was running a primary against Congressman Webster, but after Trump endorsed the incumbent, Sabatini opted to primary commissioner Douglas Bruce Shields. We will see if Sabatini can make his way back into elected office. Shields has raised $90,000 vs Sabatini’s $70,000.

Orange County Commission District 1: Non-Partisan Primary

This district covers southwest Orange County and is held by registered Democrat Nicole H Wilson, an environmental lawyer. Wilson won this seat in 2020, flipping it to the Democratic column. She is a strong defender of the county’s rural and environmental communities, which are fighting against over-development. As such, her opponent, registered Republican Austin Arthur has been flushed with developer money. He’s brought in $250,000 to Wilson’s $50,000. This is a similar dynamic to 2020, when Wilson won on $25,000 to the incumbents $175,000. Can Wilson again defy the developers of the county? We will see. The district is evenly divided politically, and Orange Commission races are officially non-partisan.

Orange County Commission District 3: Non-Partisan Primary

In this district, termed out state Senator Linda Stewart is challenging Mayra Uribe for re-election. Uribe is a progressive Democrat while Stewart is more of an establishment and pro-business lawmaker. As such the race has seen a strong ideological divide. Uribe has well outpaced Stewart in fundraising though; taking in $300,000 to Stewart’s $40,000. This may have been a mistake for the outgoing Senator.

Baker County Republican Primary for Sheriff

The story of Baker County Sheriff Scotty Rhoden is like something out of many old movies or TV shows. Stories of a rural sheriff drunk with power and prone to intimidate in a small community whenever someone challenges his authority. His office is under several investigations for financial questions and civil rights abuses. He has used the resources of the office to intimidate supports of his challenger; like setting up speed traps outside opposition events. He is being challenged by James “JD” Carpenter, who has 30 years in law enforcement dealing especially with the drug trade. He is very much running on ending the saga of scandal in the department. This primary is open to all voters. Rhoden has raised $95,000 while Carpenter has raised $90,000.

Osceola County Democratic Primary for Sheriff

In Osceola County, a four-way Democratic Primary is going on for Sheriff, and it is a doozy. Sheriff Marcos López won in 2020 after ousting incumbent Russ Gibson in the primary. Gibson is challenging Lopez for the job back. Additional candidates are Wiley Black, Luis ‘Tony’ Fernandez, and Amaryllis Rivera. Full profiles of the candidates can be seen here. Lopez has been terrible in his four years; working with DeSantis to oust State Attorney Monique Worrell, something I covered here, and broadly showing little regard for proper training of officers. Google him and you will find a litany of controversy. However, the question is if someone else can win or if he wins with a split field. No runoffs exist here.

Seminole County Republican Primary for Supervisor of Elections

Incumbent Elections Supervisor Chris Anderson is facing a Republican Primary, and unlike the story in Lake, this primary is warranted. Anderson was initially apponted to the job in 2019 and re-elected in 2020. However, since then Anderson has become erratic. He’s driven out and fired longtime employees, hired neighbors and friends to jobs with no interviews or public notices. This has resulted in some local races already having errors and mistakes. He’s gone on rants online claiming the GOP establishment is racist against him (he is Black) – but no substance to these claims exist. His laundry list of scandals has led to School Board member Amy Pennock to launch a primary bid. Pennock has run on bringing back stability to the office. She’s raised $100,000 while Anderson has raised just $20,000. Anderson is likely to lose Tuesday, and that is for the best. The winner will face Democrat Deborah Poulalion in November.

Broward County Democratic Primary for Sheriff

Broward Sheriff Greg Tony was appointed to the post by Ron DeSantis in 2019 after the Governor removed Broward Sheriff Scott Israel from the post. DeSantis claimed this was over the handling of the Parkland shooting, but this did not hold up a legal review that found Sheriff Israel should not have been removed. Even then, in a primary between Tony and Israel, the appointed Sheriff narrowly won.

Now Sheriff Tony is running for another term. His office still has plenty of controversy and he has lots of scandal in his own right. A full breakdown can be read here. However, he benefits from major financial advantages and a split field with no runoff. He is likely to hold on, but it seems Steve Geller has the best shot at beating him.

Palm Beach Commission 7 Democratic Primary

In Palm Beach District 7, the county’s lone black-performing seat, an expensive primary is underway. Incumbent Mack Bernard is term limited. He and State Senator Bobby Powell have aimed to trade seats; with Powell leaving his seat two years early to run for commission. Bernard filed for and has one Powell’s seat with no challenger emerging. However, Powell must first defeat Richard Ryles, an activist attorney, for the seat. Powell has raised $270,000 for the seat while Ryles has $180,000.

——Ok that is it, I gotta go to bed, I’m sure I missed a bunch ——

Final Notes

I am out of words