This marks Part 2 of my 2024 Florida Primary preview. In Part 1, I looked at the Congressional and US Senate Primaries. Today I will be looking at the State Senate races as well as the handful of contests for State Attorney and Public defender.
After this issue, I will have a piece looking at State House and key local contests. Without any delay, lets dig in. I’ll start with the State Attorney and Public Defender races first, as there are only a few of those being contested.
State Attorney & Public Defender
For those unaware, Florida is divided into 20 Judicial Circuits. Each elects a State Attorney and Public Defender. This circuits are not determined by population and don’t split counties. Access to the court system is prioritized over equal population. Below is the circuit map and their broad partisan leans. All State Attorneys and Public Defenders are elected on partisan ballots.
I wrote about State Attorney races before back in 2017. I’d give this a read for more details on some high-profile races from the 2016 cycle. Two circuits are also being contested this year under the cloud of Ron DeSantis – who suspended two of the Democratic State Attorneys – Monique Worrell and Andrew Warren. Both instance saw suspensions for pure political reasons. I discussed both cases in much more detail here.
Several races will have major fall races to watch. For now, lets look at the primaries being contested.
District 9 State Attorney Republican Primary
This is the district where DeSantis suspended Democratic State Attorney Monique Worrell. In November, Worrell is running to get her job back and is unopposed in the Democratic primary. Meanwhile, the man DeSantis appointed to the position, Andrew Bain, decided to run as an independent in the general election rather than as a Republican. Despite this, two Republicans are running to be the GOP nominee. Because of this split, and the fact the 9th circuit leans heavily Democratic, Worrell winning in November is highly likely.
Seth Hyman served as Assistant State Attorney until 2017 when he was terminated by then state attorney Aramis Ayala for withholding evidence to the defense. Thomas Feiter, the owner of a private law firm, is challenging Hyman in the primary. The race has been nasty, with Feiter filing a bar complaint against Hyman and arguing he is unqualified to lead the office due to his firing. The local GOP, meanwhile, has endorsed Hyman. Hyman has raised $55,000 and and loaned another $25,000. Feiter, meanwhile, is largely self-funding his raised with $150,000. Whoever wins is a decided underdog in November ad Bain and Worrell will get the most attention.
District 9 Public Defender Democratic Primary
The race for Public Defender in the 9th circuit is open to all voters since only two Democrats qualified for the race. Longtime Public Defender Robert Wesley is retiring. He’s endorsed Lenora Easter, who’s worked in the office for several years. Before taking a job with Wesley’s administration, she worked for indigent clients in the Bronx. Her opponent is Melissa Vickers, who worked in the Public Defender’s office for 17 years before being forced to resign in 2019. The resignation came after disparaging texts and messages were revealed; something Wesley has said led to a toxic work environment. Vickers, however, has more local support due to her longer tenure in the region; allowing her to outraise Easter $60,000 to $130,000. As such, the race is a contest between Wesley’s personal desire for his successor and someone with more local ties; but who carries baggage. Policy issue differences are virtually non-existent here.
District 10 Public Defender Republican Primary
The Public Defender race for the 10th circuit, which covers Polk, Highlands, and Hardee County, has only one good possible outcome. This open Republican Primary is seeing Blair Allen, who has worked in the PD office for 17 years, face off against private attorney Christopher Desrochers. While both are conservative Republicans, Desrochers has tried to make the case that he is the “real conservative.” He has attacked Allen for being a member of the NAACP and says he wants to bring a chaplain into the office; making unfounded claims that office workers are abusing drugs and alcohol. A preview of the race is here – Desrochers comes off like a hack conservative that would do nothing but damage to the office. Allen has raised $90,000 and loaned $10,000 while Desrochers has raised just $20,000 and loaned $60,000.
District 13 State Attorney Democratic Primary
The 13th District State Attorney race, which is Hillsborough County, will be a major battle in November. Andrew Warren, suspended by DeSantis after he signed a pledge to not prosecute people for violating the state’s abortion restriction. He is running to get his job back and is heavily favored to be the Democratic nominee. Elizabeth Martinez Strauss filed earlier this year when it wasn’t clear if Warren would seek his job back. Once Warren jumped in, Strauss opted to stay in. She has not managed to raise any real money, just $30,000, and has openly complained about being regarded as a “black sheep” for running against Warren. Strauss argues that Warren risks being re-suspended by DeSantis if he wins in November against DeSantis’ appointee; Suzy Lopez. These concerns have not taken hold, however, and Warren should easily win the primary. I’ll be talking about this race much more in the fall.
District 13 Public Defender Democratic Primary
Longtime Hillsborough Public Defender Julianne Holt is retiring after holding the position since 1993. Holt has endorsed Rocky Brancato, her second in command at the office, while private defense attorney Lisa McLean is running as well. While both have shown strong commitment to the issues of proper defense representation, the primary has turned bitter as disputes if the current office needs changing have brewed up; with Brancato defending the current process and McLean arguing for changes. McClean has raised $170,000 and loaned another $40,000 while Brancato has raised $110,000 and loaned $15,000. Since no other candidates have filed, the primary is open to all voters.
District 14 State Attorney Republican Primary
In District 14; a rural panhandle seat to the west of Tallahassee, incumbent Larry Basford has a primary from Eric Garmon. The primary is open to all voters. Basford has raised $130,000 and loaned another $50,000 while Garmon has only managed $20,000. Little coverage of this race exists, and while there does seem to be some right-wing, anti-establishment discontent with Basford, its hard to see him losing.
District 15 State Attorney Democratic & Republican Primary
In the 15th circuit, which is Palm Beach County, incumbent Democrat Dave Aronberg has decided to retire. Three candidates are engaged in an expensive race to replace him. Two candidates have long worked in the State Attorney office. Alexcia Cox, who’s worked in the office for 18 years, has raised $250,000 and has a large list of local Democratic endorsements. Craig Williams, who’s been in the office for 25 years, has raised $150,000 and loaned another $125,000. He also has the backing of the local police union. Gregg Lerman, a longtime defense attorney, is running on their being more coordination with the public defenders office. He’s raised $95,000 and loaned another $15,000.
In the Republican Primary, Sam Stern, who used to be a prosecutor in New Jersey for both a county and the federal government and worked for the Palm Beach County State Attorney’s Office, is the clear frontrunner. He’s raised $100,000 and loaned another $175,000. His opponent is Forrest Freedman, a former prosecutor form Massachusetts who now works for a local law firm. Freedman has only raised $25,000.
District 15 Public Defender Democratic Primary
Just two democrats are running for the opened seat for Palm Beach Public defender, meaning this race will be open to all voters. Daniel Eisinger, the current chief assistant at the PD’s office, has raised $100,000 and loaned another $85,000. His opponent is Adam Frankel, who once worked as an assisistant public defender but is now in private practice, has raised $95,000. The race just recently saw controversy when Frankel was taken to task by the Palm Beach Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers for fliers of Frankel’s that claim Eisinger supports “lower cash bail allowing some accused felons back on the streets faster.” The quote appears clearly out of context and largely related to bail lowers during the height of the COVID pandemic. The Association criticizing Frankel points out judges set bail, laws regulate bail, and a public defender is ethically obligated to seek the best for his client. Indeed it seems Frankel is trying to use a scare tactic to win over Republican voters in the open primary.
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That is it for primaries for the judicial circuits. Lets move onto the State Senate primaries; which have many expensive contests underway.
State Senate Primaries
In 2022, due to redistricting, all Florida Senate seats were up. This year it is only the odd-numbered districts. Most of these seats are safe for either Democrats or Republicans; with most of the swing seats being even numbered and hence up in 2026.
While only one or two Senate seats will be heavily watched in the fall, several have major primaries going on right now. Lets dive in.
State Senate 3 Democratic Primary
In the general election, Senate District 3 is going to be home to the most expensive contest in the state. This seat, covering much of the Florida panhandle, is a Biden +3 seat that is currently held by Republican Corey Simon, a Black Republican and former FSU football star. The district’s blue lean is thanks to the Democratic powerhouses of Leon County (home to Tallahassee) and Gadsden County, the lone majority-black county in the state. However, much of the surrounding areas are deep-red rural communities.
In 2022, Democratic Senator Loranne Ausley lost the seat amid the red-wave year in Florida. Democrats are eager to try and take it back. Since most of the State Senate seats up this year are safe for either party, this is one of the only “swing” districts up. Simon is running for re-election and two democrats are running in the primary.
The easy frontrunner to win the primary is Tallahassee attorney Daryl Parks; known for his time as part of the Parks and Crump law firm; known for many civil rights cases across Florida and the nation. Benjamin Crump has made national headlines representing many individuals involved in civil rights cases. Parks was heavily recruited to run for the seat and so far has raised hundreds of thousands for his campaign. He is widely considered to be lock to take the primary and set up an epic clash with Simon.
Before this comes to pass, Parks must get past Kimblin NeSmith, a Gadsden County commissioner. NeSmith has been filed for the district since 2023, well before Parks jumped into the race. NeSmith was elected to the Gadsden County Commission in 2020, ousting an incumbent that had been part of plenty of racially-driven controversies in the county. This is a actually a sage I covered here; so check that out for more backstory.
However, having only raised around $40,000, NeSmith has not managed to gain much traction for his run. He has a base in Gadsden, but that county only makes up 12% of the Democratic voters in the district.
Both Parks and NeSmith are African-American, meaning the general is guaranteed to see a Black Democrat and Black Republican face off. That said, only Parks will be able to keep up with Simon in money. Parks has already been running ads for the general election; clearly looking past this contest. Except Parks to easily sweep the primary; with NeSmith likely hoping he can hold Gadsden, or at least the western end of the county he represents. That would at least keep him in better shape to make a play for a future Gadsden office.
State Senate 5 Democratic Primary
Back in 2022, the-State Representative Tracie Davis won an expensive primary for this black-access seat based in downtown Jacksonville. There was initial speculation that State Rep Kimberly Daniels would primary Davis, but this did not come to pass. Davis’ only opponent is Francky Jeanty, a motivational speaker that has raised under $5,000. This is a nothing primary that Davis will easily sweep.
State Senate 7 Republican Primary
The three-way Republican primary for Senate District 7, a safe-GOP seat south of Jacksonville, has become an insanely expensive and nasty affair. The seat includes all of St Johns, Flagler, and Putnam counties; as well as a piece of Volusia. Incumbent Travis Hutson its retiring. Running for the seat are State Representative Tom Leek, conservative activist Gerry James, and former St Johns Sheriff David Shoar.
In 2022, Gerry James ran against Hutson and secured 44% in the Republican primary; far better than many expected considering Hutson’s incumbency.
James used to wrestle for the WWF under the ring-name ‘Agent Orange.’ He left wrestling after becoming a born-again Christian and largely campaigns on issues of social conservatism. He’s raised $50,000 and loaned another $50,000. This total, however, pails in comparison to the money being spent for the other two candidates.
Up until the summer of this year, the primary contest was seen as James, the anti-establishment candidate, vs Representative Tom Leek. Florida Republicans aligned around Leek, pledging support and endorsements to him. Future Senate President Ben Albritton, who heads up the Republican State Senate campaign efforts for this cycle, is firmly in Leek’s corner. Leek likewise secured the endorsements of Ron DeSantis, Rick Scott, and many prominent Republicans across the state. Leek is the clear GOP establishment pick.
However, in the spring and summer of this year, an organization called The Truth Matters began running advertisements attacking Leek; coining the phrase “Liberal Leek.” The committee has attacked Leek from the right, but actually appears to be tied to trial attorneys. This is due to Leek pushing anti-lawsuit legislation as a State Representative.
The committee has led to fractured is Republican circles; as several Republican operatives have been tied to the organization. Then, shortly after the attacks began, former St Johns Sheriff David Shoar entered the contest. Truth Matters came out and endorsed Shoar directly.
The Shoar v Leek dynamic has become insanely nasty. Albritton outright called on Shoar to drop out of the race, while Shoar has been attacked for being funded by “never-Trumpers” via the Truth Matters committee. Albritton directly stated “David Shoar has no place in the state’s upper chamber.”
Shoar has been undeterred, however, and questioned why as a former Sheriff he does not have the right to run. Shoar also benefitted in just the last few weeks from an endorsement by Donald Trump directly; setting up a major DeSantis v Trump primary fight.
Millions are being spent in this contest, I’m not even going to try and track the cash. Leek controls millions and the Senate GOP arm is spending big for him. Shoar has only raised $70,000, but Truth Matters has brought in over $3,400,000. This race has blotted out the sun in the district. It will definitely gone down as one of the nastiest this year.
As Leek and Shoar go nuclear on each-other, Gerry James has managed to avoid attacks. One cannot help but wonder if voters; seeing nothing but negative on the others, might just decide to go with James in this primary.
State Senate 13 Republican Primary
The Republican Primary for State Senate District 13, a seat that is all of Lake County and part of Southwest Orange, is so disgustingly racist and vile that I dedicated a separate newsletter to covering it. I will cover over the key points here, but I recommend giving this article a read for far more details.
The race is between two candidates: State Representative Keith Truenow and businessman Bowen Kou. Truenow is the preferred candidate of Republican leaders. He has a background in farming and won a rural farm-heavy house seat in 2020.
Republican leaders worked to clear the field for Truenow. However, their plans went awry when Bowen Kou entered the race. A successful businessman who started an Asian-centric grocery chain in Michigan, Kou, who now lives in Florida, loaned his campaign over $1,000,000 and raised several hundred thousand more.
Kou has run on specific cost of living issues like homeowners insurance and the abundance of toll roads in the area. He must have been gaining traction, because the Florida Republican leadership began running racist ads trying to tie Kou’s fundraising success, coming from many business folks and people donors in the Asian community, as if its a plot by China.
There is no evidence any of Kou’s money is from China. Kou had to flee China for Christian persecution when he was a young adult. His success in Asian grocery and dining allowed him to build strong fundraising contacts. These donations, and his own legitimate fortune, are being treated like some grand Communist plot. As a result, Kou has now seen a rise in anti-Chinese and anti-Asian sentiment in the race.
The attacks have divided local Republicans, with Kou finding support from many in the Lake County Republican Party. Kou is also suing over the ads, arguing they are clear defamation. Give my article a read for far more details on this disgusting race.
State Senate 15 Democratic Primary
In Senate District 15, a Black-access seat based in western Orange County, a battle of major names is underway. Incumbent Senator Geraldine Thompson if facing off against former State Senator Randolph Bracy. In 2022, Thompson beat fellow State Representative Kamia Brown to take the seat; winning an open primary with 53%.
Thompson’s 2022 win came despite being far outspent by Brown. However, Thompson has proven to an electoral powerhouse in the region. She has been in and out of the legislature since 2006, being elected to the house, then senate, then house again, and now back to the Senate. She has represented areas covering almost the entire current district.
Thompson won her 2022 race while Bracy lost an expensive 4-way primary for the 10th Congressional district. That race was won by Maxwell Frost, who became the first Gen-Z member of Congress. In that primary, Bracy did have strong support in the west end of the district, a heavily Black area that he represented in the State Senate at that time.
So while Bracy did lose his race, his best showings do overlap with the state senate seat. In theory Bracy should be a formidable opponent, however, he angered many democrats by primarying a well-liked incumbent. The race rapidly became very nasty through the summer.
Bracy initially decided to run against Thompson when he filed in December of 2023. This took Thompson and many Democrats by surprise. Until this point, Thompson and Bracy had a good dynamic and were not seen as rivals. In fact, the had close family ties. Bracy’s mother, LaVon Wright Bracy, was Thompson’s college roommate and maid of honor at Thompson’s wedding. Thompson already had a good working relationship with Bracy’s sister, LaVon Bracy Davis, who’d won a house seat in the area in 2022. For many, this primary challenge, which came without warning, was unwarranted. The primary was so unwelcomed that Bracy’s sister actually endorsed Thompson.
Thompson has been an invaluable mentor to me as a freshman legislator,” Bracy Davis wrote. “I look forward to continuing our important work together.”
Randolph Bracy’s response was incredibly bizarre. Rather than let it slide, he claimed the endorsement stemmed from jealousy.
“I love my sister, but … as God began to elevate and bless my life, the more envious and jealous she has become.”
Bracy made things even more contentious when he announced that he might file a lawsuit to kick Thompson off the ballot; claiming she did not live in the district. The dispute stemmed from questions over if Thompson was living in a house she and her husband long held, or another house owned by her daughter and son in law that the Senator said she was residing at full time to help with grandkids. Bracy, meanwhile, had his own residency questions, as he had a house outside the seat that he has Homestead on. Things got really spicy when Bracy held a press conference about his complaint and Thompson crashed it! Here you can see her next to Bracy, refusing to leave as he gives his remarks.
Bracy complained about being disrespected, Almost everyone else in Democratic circles, annoyed with Bracy’s antics, cheered her on.
Across democratic circles, confusion and frustration with Bracy mounted. Such a primary would drain cash and divide Democrats heading into a crucial general election. Thompson is well liked, seen as a powerhouse in the district, and received a great deal of praise for flipping the swingish HD44 when she returned to the house in 2018. Bracy, of course, had a right to run; but he offered no good REASON to run. He stuck with claims that Thompson was not effective enough, something that was countered by the many pieces of legislation and projects Thompson shepherded through the chamber.
Things only got weirder. An Orlando Sentinel expose revealed a stunning increase in Bracy’s wealth over the last two years. Since leaving the senate just two years ago, his net worth has gone from around $500,000 to over $4 million. Social media showed Bracy showing off a new car, new fancy home, and other luxury items. The source of this money? He wouldn’t say to the press or in his financial disclosure forms. This line really stands out to me.
The source of his sudden wealth is a mystery. He claims it comes from a consulting business whose clients and services he refuses to name publicly.
Let me tell you something right now. When I read that line above, the first thing that went through my head was “oh this guy is so going to jail one day.” Nothing good can possibly be the reason for such shadiness about newfound wealth. In this piece, fellow lawmakers questioned Bracy’s change in attitude; openly speculating if his Congressional loss jaded him in some way. This has been seen even more as Bracy openly courts Republicans for the race. Since only he and Thompson filed, the primary is open to all voters, same as the 2022 race. In that primary, the primary vote cast was plurality white and up to 30% of the vote cast was Republican.
What the final voter makeup is will depend on turnout. Registration-wise, the district is actually 36% white, 34% Black, and 19% Hispanic. In 2022, white turnout way outpaced Black and Hispanic voters.
Bracy has touted his times breaking with Democrats in the Senate on different issues and claiming it allowed him to be more effective. Other Democratic lawmakers have pushed back and defended Thompson’s legislative track record. Meanwhile Bracy has taken anti-transgender stances and while his voting record is broadly pro-choice, anti-choice groups like Florida Family Action have named him the preferred candidate in the race. He’s also been endorsed by pro-business (aka anti-worker) groups like Associate Industries of Florida. Thompson meanwhile as backing from the NAACP, Ruth’s List, Equality Florida, and Planned Parenthood of Florida.
The money being spent here is fairly low. Thompson, who has never been a strong fundraiser, has raised $46,000; but she also has gotten over $75,000 for in-kind help from the legislative democratic campaign committee. Bracy, meanwhile, has raised just $15,000. However, he’s also been sending mail via political committee. The piece in question uses ugly-as-sin AI imagery.
The committee is called “A Better US” – a committee Bracy formed a few months ago. The PC has received one donation, $25,000, from Coalition for Better Care PC; which appears tp be largely give money to Republicans.
Broad consensus is Thompson should win. Bracy’s campaign has not been as aggressive as many others in this article. While he has name-ID and a base of support, alot of his backers will also go to Thompson. While Republicans clearly would prefer Bracy, they are sidelined with other races to invest any big funds. If Bracy does indeed lose, he may well have ended his career with a primary bid that seemingly no one wanted.
State Senate 19 Republican Primary
Covering Brevard County, Senate 19 is almost surely going to see termed-out state Rep Randy Fine easily win his Republican Primary. Fine, easily the biggest bully in the legislature, is a vehemently anti-LGBT former Casino magnet; having made his money off the addiction of people who gamble the mortgage away on roulette.
Fine, who is Jewish, has been forced to contend with an outspoken anti-Semitic element in his county and online. A 2020 Republican Primary he was in, which I covered here, saw plenty of disgusting anti-Semitism from white nationalists. However, Fine also through the Gaza war and before has regarded Palestinians as basically sub-human. Well before the Gaza war even began, when once confronted on twitter about a dead Palestinian child, Fine said “I don’t personally feel bad when human shields are killed,” Far more of his behavior is documented here. His battles with legit anti-Semites are real, but he also regards Palestinian and Arab lives the same way a Klan members views his life.
Fine also loves to talk about LGBT people being “groomers” and while heavily defending and pushing the “Don’t Say Gay” law – claiming “parental rights” – he has also stated he does not support parents who back their children’s transgender status. After attacking things like adults wearing drag around children in any situation, claiming all drag is “adult entertainment” – it was pointed out that Fine’s wife appeared in burlesque at an event THAT HAD CHILDREN PRESENT.
Gee what word would Randy Fine use for his wife here? Begins with a G……. hmmmmmm.
Fine made waves back in 2023 when he un-endorsed DeSantis and instead backed Trump. Fine’s cited reason was DeSantis not doing enough regarding anti-Semitism. DeSantis has long done nothing when NAZIs have waved swastikas in the streets; but Fine finally broke with DeSantis shortly after the 10/7 attacks. The relationship between DeSantis and Fine remains negative, with the Governor trying to recruit a candidate to run against him in the primary. This did not materialize, and Fine’s lone GOP opponent is Charles Sheridan, a longtime Brevard resident involved in civic affairs; but who has barely raised any cash. Fine’s nasty tactics have left many Republicans not liking him; as seen by him barely winning a straw poll among GOP activists. However, realistically Fine will easily advance and hold this red seat for the GOP.
He will continue to be a bully who desperately needs a therapist for whatever the fuck happened in his youth that made him this way. Get help asshole.
State Senate 21 Republican Primary
In a seat covering northern Pinellas and part of Pasco county, incumbent Ed Hooper has one primary challenge. Retired accountant and Navy veteran John Siamas is launching a long-shot bid. Siamas has raised zero donations, but loaned his campaign almost $80,000. That said, with no major issue to attack Hooper on, who sits on well over $200,000, hundreds of thousands more in a political committee, and is a longtime political figure in the area, there is little to watch here. The race has generated amazingly little attention. Siamas’s twitter videos are amusing though.
State Senate 25 Democratic Primary
A major three-way Democratic Primary is ongoing for Senate District 25; a Hispanic-Majority seat based out of Osceola County and southern Orange. This seat has been held by Vic Torres since 2016. Before then, a different version was held by now-Congressman Darren Soto. While the seat is Majority Hispanic, voting strength is more evenly divided between white and Hispanic Democrats; which I will get to more in a moment.
Originally, the Democratic Primary for this seat was a two person race. On one side is Carmen Torres, wife of the outgoing Senator, who like her Husband is Puerto Rican; which is the biggest Hispanic nationality in the area. The other candidate is State Rep Kristen Arrington, who was elected to the majority-Hispanic HD43 in 2020. Arrington, who is white, won her 2020 primary with 30% in a very crowded race. However, she faced no primary challenge in 2022 in the Hispanic-majority HD46 and won her general elections with no problem. Arrington, who is married to Osceola commissioner Brandon Arrington, has argued that it is time for an Osceola politician to hold the seat; as both the Torres’ come from the Orange County side of the district. Torres is also the mother of Orange County Property Appraiser Amy Mercado.
“I’m an Osceola girl,” Arrington said. “Went to elementary, middle, high school, college, and even started my own business in Osceola. … I think a lot of us across the board are excited about the opportunity for Osceola to be able to have a seat at the table.”
Torres, who has been involved in Orange County Government and politics for many years, has argued for continuing the legacy of her husband as well as the experience she brings to the table and also made a direct point about continuing Hispanic representation for the seat.
“There’s at least 6 million Hispanics in the state of Florida, and 1.2 million of those are Puerto Rican, and you only have one Puerto Rican Hispanic in the Senate,” Torres said of her husband, who is leaving because of term limits. “It just blows my mind. To not have representation would be a travesty.”
Then in June, the race saw a major shakeup when former Congressman Alan Grayson announced he was running for the State Senate seat. Grayson, who’s career is so vast and controversial that I wrote a FIVE PART SERIES ON HIM earlier this year, was running for the US Senate initially. Grayson had most recently lost a Democratic Primary to Maxwell Frost in Congressional District 10 and back in 2018 had unsuccessfully primaried Darren Soto in the 9th Congressional. In his announcement, Grayson stated the reason for the change in plans was the inability to raise the needed funds for a statewide bid. Independently wealthy, Grayson can self-fund, and stated “The needs of a state Senate campaign are the lowest I’ve ever faced.” I said this in my series, Grayson just wants to matter and be in office.
Now I discussed at the top of this piece that turnout and census data is notably different in this district. While the seat is Majority-Hispanic, much lower turnout among Hispanic voters leads to a much more divided Democratic primary. For example, in 2022, Hispanic voters made up 52% of registered Democrats. However, thanks to Hispanic turnout being just 13% in the 2022 primaries, the Democratic vote was 37% white and 35% Hispanic.
Hispanic voters lag behind both Black and White Democrats consistently in elections. However, it is possible for Torres’ presence to aid in Hispanic turnout this time. This was seen back in 2016, when Darren Soto’s Congressional bid saw Hispanic turnout jump in that year’s primary. For Torres, the prospect of “loosing representation” should be a key GOTV message to Hispanic voters. A look back at the 2016 Soto run can be read here.
The issue of turnout looms large in this district in both the primary and general election. In fact, in the 2022 general election, Torres saw a closer-than-expected race as DeSantis narrowly carried the district.
This was thanks to atrocious Hispanic turnout. At the time the seat was 48% Hispanic and 32% white. The actual vote cast was 46% white and 35% Hispanic; with Republican turnout being 16 points higher than Democrats! As I documented in my 2022 turnout pieces, this was a problem across much of the state, but hit hard in areas with many Hispanic Democrats. While the Presidential campaign should yield better turnout dynamics regardless, the party likely wont be taking anything to chance. Juicing turnout will be key for November.
The primary has seen a great deal of funds just from the candidates directly. Grayson has self-funded his campaign with $180,000. Torres has raised $120,000 and has another $40,000 from the “Latino Rising” committee. Arlington has raised over $200,000 and raised another $300,000 through a political committee. Meanwhile, negative mailers have ramped up from 3rd party groups in the last few weeks. Several mailers have claimed Torres is taking Republican money; something that does not hold up t to fact-checking. In addition, a PAC tide to right-wing figures close to Marjorie Taylor Greene of all people are attacking Grayson.
A poll from the beginning of August showed Arlington with the lead with 38%; with Torres at 15% and Grayson at 20%. At the time the poll showed Arlington had the highest name-ID. Whether this has changed or not remains to be seen. Polling back in the 2016 Soto race under-estimated his support as well, so I wouldn’t rule at a Torres surge if she can consolidate Hispanic support. However, Arlington does maintain a good relationship with Hispanic voters; and it will be interesting to see how Osceola vs Orange Hispanic voters break down.
Regardless, I personally am just rooting against Alan Grayson.
State Senate 25 Republican Primary
Ok I talked a great deal about the Democratic Primary for Senate 25; but there is also a Republican primary ongoing. I’m only going to briefly touch on this. Two Hispanic Republicans are running in this primary. Jon H. Arguello, a current member of the Osceola School Board, has raised $55,000 for his bid. Jose Martinez, a businessman, has raised $30,000 but notably loaned his campaign another $150,000. Arguello has often been the lone dissenting conservative voice on the commission and has a litany of scandals on the board. Martinez is a first time candidate with less name ID but also less bagage.
The 2022 races showed that SD25 cannot be viewed as a “safe DEM” seat; but as I also stated I do believe the Presidential cycle will aid turnout that keeps it blue. Alan Grayson is likely the only candidate who puts the seat at real risk in November. That said, first we need to see who the Republicans pick and if the state party decides to really put its money where its mouth is.
State Senate 35 Democratic Primary
This Senate district, a diverse seat covering Southwest Broward County, is the site of an expensive three-way Democratic primary. The Democratic voters of the district are nearly evenly divided between Black, Hispanic, and White voters.
The region is incredibly diverse, and continues to grow as such. In 2010, the census data had the district at 38% Hispanic, 37% white, 20% black (which includes both African-American and Caribbean voters). The 2020 census data is 46% Hispanic, 26% white, 21% black. This is a heavily suburban district; filled with bedroom communities and new developments. Broadly speaking, the upper-income suburbs cover the west end of the district, while renters and smaller homes populate the east end.
This seat, covering the area I grew up in, was also the site of a major primary back in 2022. That year, Senate Democratic leader Lauren Book faced a primary challenge from former county commissioner Barbara Sharief. In that race, Sharieff, who is Black, had a strong base of support in the Miramar base of the district; while Book had a much stronger base in the more northern white communities. Hispanic voters in that contest were a key swing group.
I previewed the race initially here, and then did a follow-up here when the primary became open to all voters. The opening the primary; sparked the lone Republican dropped out, made the electorate much less Black; which hurt Sharief’s chances of unseating Book. When the primary day finally came, Sharief lost by 21 points; doing strongest in the heavily Black areas of Miramar.
Had the 2022 primary been closed, Black voters would have been 34% of the primary vote. Instead they were 24% in an open primary. Sharief likely would have gotten a boost in vote share; though whether she wins is another matter; especially since both campaigns would have operated differently. Regardless, her 39% is nothing to blow off and she is now running again. However, she has two opponents, both solid candidates in their own right. With a Republican filed as well, this primary will be closed.
Lawyer and screenwriter Chad Klitzman, a longtime Democratic activist who has also worked in several different Democratic circles. Klitzman is Jewish, serving on the board of the Broward County Democratic Party Jewish Caucus, and also openly gay. If elected he’d be the Florida Senate’s 3rd LGBT member; after Shev Jones and Carlos Smith. Sharief, btw, back in 2022, defended now-former State House Democrat James Bush III; who lost his primary that year for anti-LGBT and anti-choice votes and comments. Klitzman came onto the electoral scene back in 2020 when he lost the Democratic Primary for Broward Elections Supervisor by just 616 votes to now Incumbent Joe Scott.
In that contest, Klitzman and Scott both got right around 25% within the district; a near mirror of their countywide support. Klitzman has the backing of several local Democratic leaders in the area.
The third candidate in the race is Rodney Jacobs Jr, who is making his first bid for elected office. Jacobs, who is Black, is an attorney and has been executive director of Miami’s Civilian Investigative Panel, which reviews complaints against police officers. He is also an adjunct professor at FAU. Jacobs and Klitzman are running as the “youth candidates;” – while Jacobs has heavy backing from trial lawyers in Florida.
The race has been incredibly nasty and expensive. Sharief, who is independently wealthy, is self-funding much of her bid, similar to 2022. While she has raised $80,000 she has also loaned her campaign $450,000. Klitzman has raised $160,000, loaned another $100,000, and has a political committee that raised another $210,000. Jacobs has raised $90,000 but has a committee with a staggering $430,000. Several mailers have attacked Klitzman for the fact that a law firm he worked for had donated to Republicans despite the fact he’d only ever personally given to Democrats. Attacks on Sharief and Klitzman have been tied to Jacobs directly or the trial attorneys supporting his bid.
In just the last few days a big controversy has arisen over the fact Sharief supports have been handing out “official” democratic party slate cards; but with them altered to remove Jacobs and Klitzman from the list. Story here.
This act has seen little to no pushback from the Broward Democratic Party, as its chair, Rick Hoye, has endorsed Sharief directly. In fact, this “altered list” is actually the ORIGINAL slate card the local party tried to pass off several weeks back. A party can in fact recommend some democrats over others; but they can only do so by having a certain number of precinct spots filled and other attendance requirements (to prevent a small group from trying to pass off recommendations). The party met none of these requirements, and after media attention, candidate outcry, and intervention by the Florida Democratic Party, Klitzman and Jacobs were added onto the slate card. Sharief, however, is handing out the original, invalid, list.
The race got even nastier when Sharief announced she was suing Jacobs for defamation. This stemmed from Jacobs running ads regarding Sharief’s healthcare company being found to have overbilled Medicaid by over $500,000; leading to a financial settlement. The ads and comments from Jacobs compare Sharief to Rick Scott’s Medicaid fraud scandals. They also point out Sharief was a Republican until 2005. Sharief filed a similar lawsuit against Lauren Book back in 2022 over the same issue.
How demographics play into this race will be something to watch. Sharief and Jacobs risk splitting the Black vote; though Jacobs has also secured backing from Hispanic groups in the race. Turnout dynamics are important here. Similar to what we saw with Senate 25; Hispanic turnout lags Black and white turnout. In 2022 Democrats were 31% Black, 29% Hispanic and 27% white. Actual vote cast among Democrats in August were 39% white, 35% Black, 18% Hispanic. How these demographics turn out and who they align with really depends on ground games. Jacobs has an aggressive outreach program and I think he has more appeal with white voters in the north than Sharief does; but that is just my “vibe” of the situation. Also, how Jacobs does with Caribbean voters, a group Sharief has had iffy relations with in the past, will be interesting to see. Also, it should be noted that if Sharief wins, she would be the Florida Senate’s only Muslim member. And if you are wondering, as best I know, Gaza has not really come up in the campaign (or I haven’t seen it reported on). Sharief has actually been a longtime Israel supporter, so there has been no battle line in the district there. I’m sure the issue has come up in local circles.
How this race shakes out, and what demographics and groups fuel victory, is something I’m going to be very keen on seeing as the results come in on Tuesday.
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I will have State House and local primaries out ideally Monday morning. Maybe Monday evening if needed.