Well it’s that time of the campaign cycle – the Florida primary is upon us! Like previous years, I have done in-depth breakdowns of the races to watch on August 20th. Last year, I divided my preview into two parts to make reading easier. This year will either be two or three articles. This first piece covers the federal primaries; US Senate and Congress. All told, this is just over 7,000 words, so plenty to dig into.
I’m working through my legislative primaries next; as well as a look at local contests of note. That will be out later in the week or into the weekend. Until then, enjoy the look at these contests below.
Statewide Primaries
There is one statewide primary happening on the 20th; the Republican and Democratic Primaries for US Senate. Rick Scott, who beat Bill Nelson by just 10,000 votes, is running for another term.
Democratic Primary for US Senate
Four Democrats are running in the Democratic primary for the US Senate seat; fighting for the right to take on Rick Scott in November. The primary is really just a two person race, however. The clear frontrunner for the nomination is former Miami-Dade congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Debbie (DMP for short) flipped the GOP-held 26th in 2018 before getting swept out in 2020 as Trump flipped the district; though DMP outperformed Biden. DMP is the national and state party favorite, having raised $12,000,000 and is already directing her fire on Rick Scott. I discussed DMP’s 2020 loss in this piece. DMP outperformed Biden by 2 the same day that the Democratic incumbent in the 27th, Donna Shalala, underperformed by several points. DMP suffered from the massive Biden drop in Miami-Dade County that year.
Despite the loss, DMP was hailed as a strong candidate who got swept out by bigger forces. In fact her 2018 win for the Congressional seat had followed a 2016 loss for State Senate. I’ll discuss this more for the general election; if DMP does win the primary.
DMP does have one notable primary challenger, businessman Stanley Campbell, the brother of Luther Campbell – aka “Doctor Luke” from 2 Live Crew. Campbell, who has self-funded $1,000,000 for his campaign while raising another $80,000, has made sizeable inroads in the Black community; which can make up to 30% of primary voters. Campbell also got a major boost when he got the endorsement of the AFL-CIO and the Democratic Black Caucus of Florida. However, he still faces a likely gap in name-ID, while DMP has raised her name-ID with the focus on Scott. Campbell recently saw his campaign manager leave the campaign; and a private memo that the press got ahold of showed concerns the CM had with the campaign, feeling opportunities were lost. For Campbell, an upset victory would likely be fueled by strong support with Black voters, which was critical for Andrew Gillum’s 2018 primary upset in that year’s Gubernatorial Primary.
Campbell’s problem here is that Black voters will not be enough since he and DMP are the only major candidates running. It is unclear how many inroads he has made with white and Hispanic democrats. DMP’s campaign as received third-party support in mailboxes already. DMP is favored to win the primary; though Campbell could have a strong showing. An upset isn’t impossible but appears very unlikely at this point.
One other item from this primary that I will be looking at is the infamous conservative “protest votes” in the Democratic primary. I’ve covered this many times before, including a look at the 2022 contests, but thanks to Florida still have a decent number of rural “Dixiecrats” registered, these voters often back random people in a protest against the national and state party – which they view as too liberal. I wrote about the protest against Val Demings in the 2022 primary here.
In the Democratic Primary this time, we have two rando’s running; both good sources for sucking up protest votes. Rod Joseph and Brian Rush. In fact, Rush ran in 2022 and actually won the vote in hyper-dixiecrat Liberty County.
This map is actually a perfect representation of the protest votes. At the time, Liberty was still plurality Democratic registration; but as the 2020 Presidential data shows, many of these were DINOs who voted red at the top of the ticket and more Democratic down-ballot. As such, when these Democrats showed up in August to vote for local races, they rejected Demings and voted for literally random people. Demings only won the two precincts with large Black populations.
So long story short, the things I’m watching in the Democratic primary for US Senate are 1) how strong of a showing Campbell can make and 2) how many rural dixiecrats vote for Brian Rush again.
Republican Primary for US Senate
Incumbent Senator Rick Scott, who served as Florida Governor from 2011-2019, is running for re-election. He faces two primary challengers, but will for sure have no problem dispatching both. Scott remains popular with rank and file Republican primary voters. In 2018, he won the Republican primary with 89% of the vote.
Random trivia – the Scott underperformances in Walton and Martin counties are heavily attributed to protest votes over anger as the Scott administration’s lack of handling of algae pollution that was resulting in especially bad “red tides” at the time.
Scott’s two opponents attorney Keith Gross and actor John Columbus. Gross has made the most serious primary to Scott, pledging to self-fund up to $30 million for his bid. However, Gross has in reality only self-funded $2 million and has not made much headway against Scott. Gross has also been accused by a conservative watchdog group, Americans for Public Trust, of using the campaign largely to promote his book; “Dirt Roads to Runways.” Columbus is a self-described actor that as best I can tell, acts/works at the prominent parks in Orlando; currently working at Magic Kingdom. He has raised just $25,000.
Scott, who sits on tens of millions and is already promoting himself on TV, will easily secure re-nomination.
Congressional Primaries
Florida has a litany of primaries for Congressional districts this year. However, many of these contests have forgone outcomes; with no incumbents in real trouble and only a few seats open. That said, several seats have notable backstories and drama, even if the outcomes are in little doubt. I’ll talk about each primary here. Some will get more attention that others.
For reference points, this is Florida’s current Congressional map; a byproduct of the DeSantis gerrymandering efforts that I covered extensively in 2022.
I delve into each of these districts in this piece that I wrote in 2022 going into extreme detail about each district. While I’ll offer some key points on the seats as I go through each primary, I recommend checking that piece out to get a better feel for any district you have question about.
Congressional District 1 Republican Primary
Congressman Matt Gaetz is facing a Republican Primary as he runs for a fifth term. The Congressman is a steadfast ally of Donald Trump and made national headlines for being one of the holdouts on supporting Kevin McCarthy to be elevated to the Speaker’s office back in January of 2023. The chaos of that saga led to Gaetz nearly getting in a fight with Congressman Mike Rogers
Gaetz would later be part of the motion to vacate that ousted McCarthy as Speaker in the fall of 2023. McCarthy has insisted this is due to the then-Speaker not stopping an ethics investigation into Matt Gaetz; who faces a string of controversies around paying women for sex, one of whom was allegedly 17 years old.
Gaetz, way back in his state house days, was a known sexual deviant that acted like a frat-boy rather than a lawmaker; always bailed out by his daddy – then-state Senator Don Gaetz. Matt Gaetz was also notably one of just two State House members who voted against criminalizing revenge porn, apparently telling members on the floor that any such photos sent to him were his to use as he pleases. Gaetz is a garbage human being.
Unfortunately, being a garbage human being doesn’t mean much in modern Republican politics. Gaetz has avoided any serious primary threats since his original victory, though he often underperforms in his primaries. In 2016, his win was thanks to split votes.
Heading into qualifying, it seemed Gaetz might avoid a primary altogether. However, in the spring of this year, retired navy veteran and director of the Missouri Leadership Academy Aaron Dimmock filed to run against the congressman.
Dimmock says that he moved to the district last winter to take a job with the University of West Florida’s Aylstock, Witkin, Kreis & Overholtz Center for Leadership; but still works as a director with the Missouri organization. Dimmock has stated on the matter “I live here in Pensacola, and I work remotely and go up to Jefferson City a couple of days out of the month to help direct the governor’s leadership academy,” Dimmock has been hit hard by Gaetz on having seemingly closer ties to Missouri than the Florida district; though Dimmock’s veteran status can aid him in a district with a large military population. Dimmock has raised $350,000; but has seen hundreds of thousands more spent on his behalf by the McCarthy-controlled Florida Patriots PAC.
A poll from July shows that Gaetz had a sizeable lead in the polls; then at 67% for Gaetz and just 20% for Dimmock. Gaetz has spend big money attacking Dimmock in ads for not only his Missouri ties, but also claiming he is a secret liberal. The primary is basically an extension of the McCarthy-Gaetz feud. However, it seems very likely Gaetz will emerge the winner; and no doubt direct his gloating at the former Speaker.
Congressional District 2 Republican Primary
Over in the 2nd district, which covers much of the Florida panhandle and rural counties around Tallahassee, Congressman Neil Dunn is running for re-election. Dunn has a primary in businesswoman and former teacher Rhonda Woodward, who claims Dunn has not voted conservative enough. Woodward has fashioned himself in the fire-breathing style of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz; saying she wants to be allies with them if elected. She has said Dunn should have joined Gaetz in voting to oust McCarthy in 2023. Woodward, however, has gained no real traction for her long-shot bid. She has raised under $30,000 and Dunn has the backing of Donald Trump. Dunn will easily win, though if he notably underperforms that could mean there is an appetite for a better funding far-right challenge.
Congressional District 3 Republican Primary
In district 3, which covers Gainesville and the surrounding rural counties, Incumbent Kat Cammack is facing one Republican primary challenger. Cammack, a standard conservative who is a bit more moderate on some social issues; notably voting to protect same-sex marriage, is easily favored to win another term. Her opponent is hospitality worker Alec Stevens, who has no real political ties and has insisted that he is running because the LORD called him to do so. Stevens’ issues are decidedly far-right; favoring banning abortion in almost any circumstance AND wanting all LGBT teachers removed from schools. Stevens hasn’t even raised $20,000 for this long shot bit and will soon find that the LORD said he doesn’t belong in Washington DC.
Congressional District 5 Republican Primary
In Congressional district 5, which covers south Jacksonville and North St Johns, Incumbent John Rutherford should have no problem winning re-nomination. The Congressman and former Jacksonville Sheriff faces Mara Macie, who is running to his right. While Macie has raised $65,000 – this is hardly enough to take on well-known incumbent. Macie ran against Rutherford in 2022 and got just 18% of the vote. Macie has gotten the endorsement of the St Johns Republican Party, but this is viewed as a questionable move by the local party rather than any real indication of Rutherford being in any real trouble.
Congressional District 6 Republican Primary
District 6, which covers the Northeast Coast of Florida; including Daytona, is held by former Green Beret Mike Walzt. He has one primary in John Grow, a software engineer who has raised around $60,000. Grow has campaigned on some in-the-weeds issues but also said Waltz should not have voted to certify Biden’s 2020 victory. Waltz, who has Trump’s backing and had a prime time speaking slot at the RNC, is expected to easily win his primary.
Congressional District 7 Republican and Democratic Primary
Both parties have primaries for Congressional District 7, a seat based out of Seminole County and the southern portion of Volusia. This was gerrymandered in 2022 to move the district; ancored in Seminole County, out of blue Orange and into red Volusia; aiming to short-circuit the Democratic growth in Seminole. As a result, the 7th went from a lean-Democratic seat to a lean-Republican district. More backstory can be seen in my 2022 massive review of the districts.
In 2022, now-incumbent Republican Cory Mills won a crowded Republican primary and then easily won the general election. He has one primary challenger in Mike Johnson (not the Speaker of the House).
Johnson is a retired perennial candidate who was last seen losing a primary to State Senator Joe Gruters in 2022; in a seat far from this district. Johnson, who only raised $41,000, has recently claimed the medals Mills won for combat in Iraq and Afghanistan were not truly earned. The Army has recently confirmed the medals, while at least theoretically other questions remain about where Mills was and when he served. Here is a link to judge for yourself. Stolen valor seems to be a constant GOP attack point these days. Mills has faced critique for spending too much time on national issues and not engaging in district-specific concerns. It is also well known that Mills is angling for a future statewide office run. That said, Mills will be fine in his primary.
In the Democratic Primary, three candidates are running. Allek Pastrana, a computer security expert, and Tatiana Fernandez, a businesswoman, ran in the 2022 Democratic Primary for the seat but neither advanced. The Democratic frontrunner is mediatory and civil activists Jennifer Adams, who has raised $190,000 while her two opponents are under $50,000 each. Adams would be the strongest candidate to go against Mills, but this is still a seat that was drawn to lean Republican.
Congressional District 8 Republican and Democratic Primary
The story around the Republican Primary for this district is very scandalous. Congressional 8, which is largely based out of Brevard County, has been represented by Congressman Bill Posey since 2009. By all accounts, Posey was running for re-election this year and was not expected to face a serious primary challenge. Then, on the last day of qualifying, former State Senate President Mike Haridopolis filed for the seat. Qualifying soon ended and after qualifying was done, Posey announced he was not running again; leaving Haridopolis as the only serious Republican candidate filed. Posey would openly admit that he’d considered retirement and reached out to Haridopolis about running for his seat in private. Had Posey announced his retirement before the end of qualifying, its likely several prominent Republicans in the area, including State Senator Debbie Mayfield would have filed. Haridopolis is not strong enough to beat any of the major candidates that would have otherwise filed. The moves were blatantly unethical and aimed to crown Haridopolis as the air.
So who is Mike Haridopolis, and why was all this secrecy needed? Well, despite having a strong biography; serving as Senate President from 2010 to 2012, Haridopolis has proven to be a weak campaigner. Back in 2011, Haridopolis was running against Senator Bill Nelson for the US Senate seat. However, his campaign was the source of non-stop controversies. The State Party was dealing with the fallout from its former Chair Jim Greer, who was being investigated for embezzling party funds. Then Haridopolis took a hit when it was revealed he’d been paid over $150,000 to write a Florida Government book for Broward College. The book was deemed so bad and un-useful that it was never published and only one copy existed for a long time. Florida Democrats poked fun at the scandal when they released a coloring-book version. The book scandal and the Chair scandal led to Haridopolis dropping his bid by the summer of 2011. He receded from the political limelight after that.
Now Haridopolis finds himself in a strong position to go on to Congress. He has two opponents in the Republican Primary, John Hearton and Joe Babits. Both were primary challengers to Posey and neither have strong support of money. Babits has loaned his campaign $150,000 and Hearton has loaned his campaign $200,000; but neither have raised much of anything from donors. An internal poll shows Haridopolis with a commanding lead. Meanwhile he’s secured the endorsement of DeSantis and Trump, as well as most major Republican players. The primary has been set up to coronate him as the new Congressman for the 8th.
Once Haridopolis wins the primary, he will face either Daniel McDow or Sandy Kennedy; depending who wins the Democratic Primary. Neither candidate has raised much money and with the district’s solid red lean, Haridopolis is poised to enter Congress.
Congressional District 9 Republican Primary
Congressional District 9 is a new Hispanic-majority district that covers Osceola County and south Orlando. With the Hispanic population being majority Puerto Rican, a decidedly more liberal group than the Cuban or South American Hispanics down in Miami, the district is usually heavily Democratic. In 2020, the district voted by 18 points for Joe Biden. Incumbent Darren Soto, a Puerto Rican Democrat, has easily held the district since he won it in 2016. Then in 2022, amid the major red wave in Florida that year, Soto “only” one by 7 points as Ron DeSantis narrowly carried the seat.
The swing here was heavily driven by disproportionate turnout among whiter Republicans. I documented this issue here. Thanks to the 2022 swing, national Republicans do have the 9th on the radar It still remains very likely Democratic, as Soto is a clear over-performer and Presidential turnout will almost surely benefit Democrats. That said, three Republicans are running for the seat, all hoping to take on Soto.
One candidate to announce is a major blast from the past; John “Q” Quinones. Back in 2002, Quinones became the first Puerto Rican Republican State Representative. In 2007, Quinones would be elected to the Osceola County Commission when the county was ordered to go to single-member districts amid a VRA redistricting lawsuit. Quinones won that race and was considered a major potential recruit for a future congressional run. That came in 2012 when the newly-drawn 9th was drawn as a Hispanic-access seat. Quinones was recruited and considered the strongest candidate against white Democrat Alan Grayson. To avoid this matchup, Grayson spent big money to hurt Quinones in the Republican primary; allowing Tea Party conservative Todd Long to win that contest.
The 2012 tactic would work for Grayson, and I go far more into that story in this article. With that, Quinones was out of the electoral game. Then, in July of 2023, Quinones announced he was going to challenge Soto this year. He has raised $125,000 so far, but he is not the biggest spender in the primary.
Thomas Chalifoux, a former Osceola County School Board member, is the big spender in the primary so far. He has loaned his campaign a staggering $2,000,000. Chalifoux was a school board member from 2000 to 2008, so he has been out of the electoral light almost as long as Quinones. However, with his business success allowing him to fund his race, he is been able to blanked the district. Chalifoux is white, but that is not a disadvantage; as the Republican voters in this district are 58% white and 31% Hispanic; and likely will be even whiter in terms of votes cast.
The third Republicans is conservative activist and former Disney employee Jose Castillo. Then a Disney employee, Castillo who drew national attention for going on Fox News to criticize the company’s fight with DeSantis over “Don’t Say Gay” back in 2022. Castillo has lagged in fundraising but he’s loaned his campaign $75,000.
As I see it, Chalifoux is likely frontrunner for this seat. The 2012 primary showed Quinones had a limited base of support in the increasingly far-right republican circles. While Quinones has tried to go more MAGA conservative, he does not have the cash that Chalifoux does. Of course, if Chalifoux wins, it will put a white Republican against an Hispanic Democrat; something the national Democrats would be happy with.
Congressional District 10 Republican and Democratic Primary
There are Republican and Democratic primaries in the Orlando-based 10th. However, neither are much to watch. First term Democrat Maxwell Frost, who became the first Gen-Z congressman in 2022, will easily win re-nomination. In 2022, Frost bested State Senator Randolph Bracy, former Congressman Alan Grayson, and former Congresswoman Corrine Brown to take this seat by riding a wave of progressive support.
This time, Frost faces Wade Darius and V. “Issa” White. Neither man have made any real inroads against Frost, who remains popular with progressives and more center-left Democrats. White has raised $50,000 while Darius has raised under $20,000. While White has hit Frost, claiming he is already going “too national” and not focused on the district, there is little indication this attack has taken root; especially as Frost is universally seen by Democrats as effect suggogate. Expect an easy Frost win here.
On the Republican side, Tuan Le and Willie Montague are facing off. Neither have topped $20,000 raised and will be crushed in November regardless. Totally irrelevant contest.
Congressional District 11 Republican Primary
There is no luckier Florida Republican Congressman than Daniel Webster; the current incumbent for the 11th Congressional district. Webster, a longtime political figure from the Orlando area, was the first Republican Speaker in modern Florida history; way back in 1996. Webster would win a seat in Congress in 2010 and has held on since then, albeit running in a litany of different districts. His 2010 win in a swing seat was followed by 2012 redistricting giving him a redder district. Then the 2015 mid-decade redistricting process gave him a deep blue seat; so he bolted to run for a different republican-aligned seat. Finally with the 2022 redistricting process, he found him in the modern 11th; with includes the Republican suburbs of western Orlando, most of Lake County, part of Polk, and all of Sumter. Webster therefore represents the Villages Retirement Community; a GOP powerhouse in the region.
In 2022, Webster faced far-right activist Laura Loomer. In that contest, Loomer, who is openly and proudly Islamophobic, spent over $700,000 in the contest. Webster would go on to only modestly beat Loomer, taking just 51% of the vote.
This result was a major warning for Webster. His lone strong area was his Orange County base, but that area has fewer Republican votes than Sumter or Lake. Webster has seen many of the longtime suburban Republicans become Democrats as he’s been forced to contend with a more right-wing conservative movement. His loss in Sumter County was thanks to the dominance of the Villages; a community that by its nature had little longtime ties to him. In fact, Webster doing the worst in the southern end of the Villages, a recently build portion that has much newer retirees, showed how mcuh Webster’s win was based on familiarity from the past; something that would shrink with each election.
It was no shock then that Webster was the target for a primary. He got one in former State Representative Anthony Sabatini, a far-right lawmaker that had represented Lake County. Sabatini was despised by the Florida Republican leadership due to his temperament, far-right positions, and willingness to openly critique the leaders. When he ran for the GOP primary in the 7th district in 2022, a good deal of money spent against him was fueled by personal dislike. All that aside, Sabatini was a real threat to Webster, as much as his detractors didn’t want to admit it. Sabatini has raised $350,000 and was making the same inroads Loomer had in 2022. I was ready to directly predict a Webster loss; but then help came for the Congressman. In the spring, Donald Trump announced he was endorsing Webster; something no doubt organized by DC leaders who did not want to deal with Sabatini. Bowing to the reality of the situation, Sabatini announced he would drop out and instead run for Lake County Commission; a race I will cover later on.
Webster now has only one primary challenger ramining; a retired army reservist named John McCloy. So far, McCloy has raised just $35,000 while lending his campaign another $60,000. This primary has become much quieter than it was before, and Webster is widely expected to win. However, I imagine he will still show clear weakness merely from protest votes.
Congressional District 12 Republican Primary
Covering the working class and increasingly conservative Citrus, Hernando, and Pasco Counties, the 12th district is a solidly Republican seat. Incumbent Gus Michael Bilirakis has held the seat since 2007. In 2022, his district base got changed a great deal, which much of his Pasco County base removed. However, this has not been a problem for Bilirakis, who won 80% in his 2022 primary. This time he faces first time candidate Hank Dunlap, a technician with little political ties. Dunlap as contrasted himself with Bilirakis, who’s considered one of the more bipartisan Republicans, by saying that he thinks EVERY Democrat in existence is evil. Ooook then. Dunlap has raised $12,000 and has no real support behind him. Any votes for him will be pure protests to Bilirakis, but nothing says he’s in any trouble.
Congressional District 13 Democratic Primary
A very expensive Democratic Primary is underway for CD13; which might surprise folks considering this is a district that voted for Donald Trump by 7 points. This seat, held by right-wing freshman Anna Paulina Luna, was drawn to become a Republican district in the 2022 redistricting process. The DeSantis-led gerrymander cracked the Black and Democratic communities of St Petersburg and added a chunk of them to the already-blue 14th. The 13th, as a result, leans Republican. However, in her 2022 victory, Luna underperformed the top of the ticket. She is a political lightning rod and not considered an especially strong incumbent. In this vain, she has been viewed similar to Lauren Boebert, who’s shockingly close race in 2022 saw he switch to a more GOP-heavy seat. As such, several Democrats, all raising solid money, have opted to run for the seat.
The Democratic frontrunner is Whitney Fox, who has raised over $800,000. Fox, the former communications director for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority, has received many prominent endorsements; including from next-door Congresswoman Kathy Castor. Former diplomat Liz Dahan has pulled in $300,000. Fire Commissioner Mark Weinkrantz has raised $70,000 but also loaned $250,000 more. Sabrina Bousbar, who worked at the Department of Health and Human Services in the Biden administration, has pulled in $200,000. Finally, John William Liccione, an engineer, has loaned his campaign $270,000 and raised basically nothing. Liccione is notably not included by the Pinellas Democrats as a vetted candidate due to past accusations of domestic abuse, which he denies.
All told, Fox is very likely the frontrunner, carrying the most endorsements and cash. Momentum seems to be on her side.
Congressional District 14 Republican Primary
Four Republicans are running to take on Democratic Incumbent Kathy Castor in this Biden +18 seat. None have raised real money, with most loaning cash to their campaigns. None have notable experience either. John Peters has $60,000, Robert “Rocky” Rochford has $55,000, Ehsan Joarder has $30,000, and Neelam Taneja Perry has under $5,000. This primary has generated little attention and the winner will be stomped by Castor.
Congressional District 15 Republican Primary
Congressional District 15, a swing seat that leans slightly Republican, is the story of the Republican Primary that wasn’t. Back in January, incumbent Republican Laurel Lee, the former Florida Secretary of State and wife to former Senate President Tom Lee – was seen as having no problems in the Republican Primary. Then Donald Trump announced he was looking for someone to run against Lee; who had been the only Florida Congressperson to back Ron DeSantis in the Presidential Primaries.
The direct threat from the President led to a flurry of sudden activity; as Republicans considered “answering the call” while Democrats reveled in the idea of taking advantage of GOP dissention. The threat that Lee could suddenly lose to a far-right, Trump-backed insurgent could make the narrow seat much more winnable in November.
However, despite this development, and likely owing to Trump’s diminished standing with being kingmaker in Republican primaries, no major Republican filed against Lee; who found herself with just two under-funded and unknown Republican opponents. James Judge, an ultra-conservative activist and owner of a public relations firm, opted to challenge Lee after initially running to primary Bilirakus in the 12th. He’s raised just $80,000. Lee’s other opponent is Jennifer Barbosa, who ran for Congress back in 2020 in California against Adam Schiff Both have run as far-right candidates that deny the 2020 election was legit; and Barbosa has stated January 6th was a set-up. Neither were seen as having any shot, even if Trump directly endorsed one. Then in June, as it became clear Lee would likely be fine in the primary, Trump ENDORSED her, no doubt hoping to not look foolish when she wins.
So for all that drama, we are back to where things were before; with Lee basically a lock to be the Republican nominee. Lee will emerge from this primary and go on to face Hillsborough Commissioner Pat Kemp in the general election. We will see how that race shakes out through the fall.
Congressional District 16 Republican and Democratic Primary
Over in the 16th district; a red seat based in Manatee County and parts of Hillsborough, Incumbent Vern Buchanan has a nasty primary going against him. Buchanan is originally based out of Sarasota County, but redistricting forced him to jump to this district to avoid a primary with fellow Republican Greg Stuebe. In 2022, Buchanan got over 80% in a Republican primary and realistically is not likely at risk here. However, his opponent is very aggressive.
Buchanan’s opponent in the Republican primary is Eddie Speir, the founder of Inspiration Academy, a Christian School. Speir was originally appointed to the board of trustee for “New College” – the college that DeSantis and the GOP forcefully took over several years ago. Speir was the lone appointee to be rejected by the Florida Senate for a full term on the board. He blamed this on Richard Corcoran, the former Florida Speaker of the House who’d become the President of the college. Speir has self-funded his raise with over $500,000 and raised little else. He has faced critique for running his campaign out of his Christian School; and like Donald Trump he lashes out at anyone who questions him. He runs on hyper-“Christian” values – like treating a Buchanan sign near a psychic place as if its a sign of the end times.
His campaign against Buchanan and the GOP establishment has been very nasty; including being ejected from a Republican meeting for heckling and disrupting proceedings. Speir has also claimed endorsements that he actually never received from different Republican clubs; leading to call outs by Republican leaders. He has moved forward anyway; nasty and negative the entire time. However, with all this, he is still viewed as a serious underdog in his bid.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Trent Miller and Jan Schneider are facing off in a low-money race. Either will be major underdogs in November.
Congressional District 17 Democratic Primary
Two Democrats are running for the right to take on Republican Greg Steube in this solid Republican seat. Matt Montavon, who used to work for the United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization, has raised just under $70,000. He faces Manny Lopez, a perennial candidate who actually served on a local school board back in Texas in the 1990s. He’s raised $40,000. Neither have a chance in November.
Congressional District 18 Democratic Primary
Two democrats are in a primary for the right to take on a Republican incumbent Scott Franklin in the deep-red 18th district. Peter A. Braunston and Andrea Doria Kale are both tech people who have raised under $25,000. Neither will be factor in the general election.
Congressional District 21 Republican Primary
District 21 covers St Lucie, Martin, and part of the very north of Palm Beach County. Incumbent Brian Mast, who retains strong support in the district, has a primary from Rick Wiles; a far-right activist and radio host. Wiles is chock full of racist conspiracies of all kinds; including a belief that millions of Chinese students are coming to America and going underground to await Xi Jinping call for a guerilla war. He is a lunatic.
In his bid against Mast, Wiles has focused heavily on anti-Israel and direct anti-Jewish language. Wiles has attacked Mast for wearing an IDF uniform in the days after the 10/7 attack. Mast, a combat veteran that lost both his legs in US military service, got the uniform as part of training exercises when he visited Israel. Wiles has claimed that his makes Mast a foreign agent and literally accused him of treason. Wiles has focused heavily on the war-crimes being committed in Gaza, but this is more of a “broken clock is right twice a day” thing – because Wiles cares nothing for Palestinian lives.
Wiles has also openly just pushed anti-Semitic comments, recently saying “Let me tell you Mr. Netanyahu, let me tell you ADL: God. God is spreading it in your synagogues. You’re under judgment because you oppose his son, the Lord Jesus Christ.” Wiles’ radio show TruNews, has been labeled a hate organization by the Southern Poverty Law Center, has been filled with anti-Semitic conspiracies‘ for years. These include ideas that JFK’s assassination was a Jewish conspiracy and that Jeffrey Epstein was an Israeli agent.
Wiles is a Grade-A monster of a person. Luckily he has no chance at unseating Mast. Wiles has raised just $40,000 and loaned himself another $200,000. Mast has faced right-wing heat before because of his nominal support for things like assault weapon bans or controls. How much of Wiles’ vote share might be tied to that, especially among voters who don’t know of Wiles’ comments, remains to be seen. Regardless, Wiles is for sure to lose.
Congressional District 22 Republican Primary
Three Republicans are running in an expensive primary for the right to lose by 20 points to Democrat Louis Frankel in this solidly blue Democratic seat. The 2022 Republican nominee, Dan Franzese, has raised $200,000 but notably loaned his campaign another $800,000 – giving him the financial lead. The woman he beat in the 2022 primary by under 200 votes, Deborah Adeimy, is running again and has raised $175,000. Andrew Gutmann, an “anti-woke education” activist and conservative podcaster, has raised $700,000. Franzese has recently secured the endorsement of Trump. This is lots of money being wasted for a SAFE DEM seat.
Congressional District 23 Republican Primary
Several Republicans have lined up to challenge Democrat Jared Moskowitz in this Palm/Broward Congressional district. The district is home to a large population of Jewish retirees, and Moskowitz, who is Jewish himself, won this open seat in 2022 despite Ron DeSantis narrowly carrying the district.
Despite the DeSantis win in 2022, most expect the district to be back in Democratic hands in November. I covered the 2022 swing and turnout issues from that year in this article. Moskowitz is a strong representative for the district, having represented the area in the state house and being an outspoken gun control advocate in the wake of the Parkland shooting in 2018. Moskowitz has taken a more hawkish pro-Israel position, something that has led to grumbling in the left. However, this did not spark a primary challenge; which would be a non-started in the seat.
Moskowitz’s strongest Republican opponent would surely be Robert S. Weinroth, a former Palm Beach Commissioner. Weinroth in fact was a Democratic County Commissioner and former Mayor of Boca Raton. He lost his re-election in 2022 amid the red wave that swept the county; something I wrote about here.
A moderate before this, Weinroth announced shortly after that he lost that he was leaving the Democrats and joining the Republicans. Weinroth has insisted he was always a “Democrat in name only” and says he voted for Trump in 2020. Weinroth has raised around $200,000 and loaned another $150,000.
Carla Spalding so far has outraised the field by taking in $700,000. Spalding is a Jamaican conservative activist who has run for Congress in the area multiple times. Spalding ran and lost against Debbie Wasserman Shultz in 2020 and 2022 after winning Republican primaries. She’d lost a 2018 primary to Joe Kaufman, another candidate in this race. Kaufman has likewise run for Congress in the area many times; often against Debbie Wasserman Shultz. Both are part of a industry of perpetual conservative candidates. Darlene Cerezo Swaffar is right behind Kaufman with $95,000. She came in 3rd in the Republican primary for this seat in 2022; getting 12%. Two other candidates are running, each with some money but likely will trail the others, Gary Barve and Joe Thelusca.
Weinroth is the best candidate Republicans can hope for. That said, this is still likely to be a Democratic hold, as Moskowitz retains strong appeal in a district that even in the 2022 red wave still elected him.
Congressional District 24 Republican Primary
No primary is a bigger waste of time than the Republican primary for the Biden +50 Black-access 24th Congressional district; which is based out of Northeast Miami-Dade county. The 2022 GOP nominee, Jesus Gabriel Navarro, is running again after getting 28% of the vote in that race. He has raised just $700. That said, he outpaces fellow Patricia Gonzalez, who has raised NOTHING.
Congressional District 25 Republican and Democratic Primary
District 25, which covers south Broward County, is a solidly Democratic seat with a sizeable Jewish population. It has been represented by longtime Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Back in 2016, Shultz faced a real primary threat from the left as her tenure leading the DNC led to great anger over her handling of the Clinton v Sanders primary. Some of this clique was far, some of it was not. Shultz was viewed as too focused on national matters. However, he strong constituent services outreach allowed her to still pull off a win against Tim Canova by 14 points. Since then she has easily won her primaries.
In this year’s Democratic primary Schultz is on track to easily win. While Schultz has plenty of detractors on the left of the party, that voting block is not a large piece of the district. That was seen in her 2016 primary win; which was by far when she was most venerable. Schultz’s opponent is her 2020 primary challenger, Jen Perelman, who lost to DWS 72% – 28% in 2020. Perelman has run to left on several economic issues, but her focus on Israel and Zionism has generated the bulk of her campaign. Like Schultz, Perelman comes from a Jewish family. However, while DWS has long been a strong Israel ally, Perelman has campaigned against the country itself. Perelman is not just running against the conduct of the Gaza campaign, but has disavowed any two-state solution and said that Israel is “not a real place.” A full interview with many lines like this can be read here.
It’s like Disney World. That’s Disney World. It’s like a fake ethnicity based on stolen ethnicity from other people of a language that had to be resurrected to pretend you’re an ethnicity and it’s infuriating.
If Perelman thinks this will play well in a district with a large Jewish population (and a very liberal gentile population that gets along with their Jewish neighbors), she is mistaken. Her campaign has been called “Self-Loathing” – as it goes well beyond legit critique of the war and stems into anti-Semitic “all Israelis are colonizers” nonsense. Perelman seems to be eager for a fight over Israel, actually calling out that AIPAC has done nothing for this race.
Perelman clearly wants AIPAC involved so she can use it as a bogyman. The reality is no one expects this race to be close. Despite this, Perelman has managed to raised $400,000 by folks who don’t likely realize they are lighting their money on fire. Expect another blowout primary here.
A republican primary in this seat is just for the right to lose the general. However, with DWS being such a high-profile bogyman for the right-wing, running against her can generate good fundraising regardless of the electoral reality. Bryan E. Leib, the CEO of public relations company, has generated the most institutional support; getting endorsements from Congressmen Byron Donalds and Cory Mills. He’s raised $70,000. He is being outspent by retired Air Force General Chris Eddy, who has raised $190,000 and loaned another $120,000. Eddy has backing from more hardcore MAGA world, like General David Flynn. The race has gotten heated at times, with Leib calling Flynn anti-Semitic over comments regarding AIPAC. Regardless, neither stance a chance in November.
Congressional District 26 Republican Primary
If you look at the Congressional map, you will see how District 26, a majority-Hispanic seat, stretches from Hialeah and goes west to inland Collier county on the west coast. The district’s voting power in both primary and generals is heavily concentrated in the Hialeah area of the seat. As such, incumbent Republican Mario Diaz-Balart, a longtime fixture in Miami-Dade Hispanic politics, is never vulnerable. This remains true this time as he faces two primary challengers; both from the western end of the district: Johnny Fratto & Richard Evans. Neither of these candidates have raised any real money and Balart will easily coast in his this contest.
Congressional District 27 Republican and Democratic Primary
The Hispanic-Majority 27th district in Florida is the closest seat in the state; backing Donald Trump by just 0.3%
The Republican primary here is a mere formality. Congresswoman Salazar has a primary from Royland Lara, a Conservative Cuban activist who has raised no money and as best I can tell is not really campaigning.
Two Democrats, both with a decent amount of cash and ties to the district, are running for the right to take on Salazar. The narrow money leader, with $350,000 raised and $200,000 loaned, is former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey. His primary opponent is current School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller, who won re-election with over 60% of the vote in 2020 for a seat with some district overlap. She has raised right around $350,000 and not loaned her campaign any money. Both have potential good biographies for the district. Davey is a former Republican and has been long involved in Caribbean and South American political issues. Geller is the daughter of a Cuban exile father and Columbian mother and has demonstrated strong electoral success. She likewise boasts more prominent local endorsements; from former Congresswoman Debbie Marcus-Powell to former State Senator Annette Taddeo. Both have spent the primary advocating for themselves and attacking Salazar rather than go after each-other.
The primary winner is still an underdog to Salazar at the outset. However, this is one of the districts to keep watching through November.
Up Next
Ok, onto the legislative primaries. Wish me luck on getting that done soon.