The midterm elections in Florida are on Tuesday. By all accounts, Republicans are expected to have a very good night. The GOP financial advantage is unprecedented this year, which also marks the first time in modern Florida History that Republicans hold a voter registration advantage.
With these dynamics in play, Florida House Democrats go into this election with a rapidly narrowing map of possible pickups and have several tough defenses.
The State House Map
I covered Florida’s legislative redistricting process extensively in my substack and this website. To sum up the final lines, the State House borders to represent a modest GOP gerrymander. Specific regions of the state were absolutely drawn to ensure GOP advantages; namely Tampa, Gainesville, and Jacksonville. However, Republicans didn’t both trying to gerrymander aggressively in South Florida or Orlando. The map overall has its pluses and minuses, which I delved into in past articles. In the end, the state’s overall GOP lean ensure the chamber will remain in Republican hands. This is the partisan breakdown of the map.
You can see a full list of all top-line partisan results in this Google Doc. I have races going from 2020 back to 2012. You can see how some districts have shifted in and out of competitive categories.
With the voter registration takeover by the GOP, this is how the districts breakdown by final registration.
As a shift from 2020, almost every district got more GOP in registration (relative to Democrats). Only a few districts actually got bluer. Part of this widespread sweep is the lack of major Democratic registration efforts this cycle.
A swing map of registration from 2016 better shows how different districts are trending due to demographics. The Democratic growth in Tampa, Jacksonville, and Orlando is better seen here.
However, registration trends are not the main driver of what will happen Tuesday. This biggest driver will be turnout. As of this writing (Sunday night), the turnout advantage for the GOP is serious. Not this data is as of the morning, but even with the Sunday tradition of “Souls the Polls” – the GOP is going to maintain a serious turnout advantage. Right now, the partisan makeup over voters is 7 points in favor the GOP, far higher than their registration advantage.
A map of the turnout differences by district can be seen below. Purple districts mean the GOP has a higher % of their voters showing up, while green means a higher % of DEMs are showing up.
Three counties specifically have notablly higher Democratic than Republican turnout – Pinellas, Sarasota, and Palm Beach. However, before Democrats celebrate, a big factor in this is that these counties are heavily mail and election day counties; with little in-person early voting. Mail voting still skews heavily Democratic, with in-person early and election day being more GOP. In these counties, where their is less in-person early voting traditions, the Republicans will show up on election day, and wipe out some of this green.
Overall, the Florida Republican Party and its interests have far more money and infrastructure than Florida Democrats. This dynamic will allow them to turn out their voters more and has allowed them to flood airwaves at paces Democrats and their interests cannot keep up in. The result is that the House Ratings I’d been working have moved notably to the GOP in the last week or two. Had this article been written in middle October, more would probably be on the board. However, with just a day or two left, my ratings reflect a rapidly shrinking window of opportunity for Democrats.
With all that said, here are the ratings.
I’m going to delve into justifications for the non-safe ratings.
Tossup Districts
These districts, as the name implies, are tossups. While I may think some of these slightly tilt one way or the other, they still in play for either side.
District 35
Republican Incumbent Fred Hawkins has found himself running for re-election in the Democrat-leaning HD35. Hawkins, a former Osceola Commissioner, was elected to the outgoing HD42 in 2020. Originally an easy frontrunner for the seat, he got himself into legal trouble when he was arrested for impersonating a Sheriff’s officer to get into a Homeowner association meeting. The controversy resulted in him underperforming in the district, winning by just 1 while Trump won it by 6.
Smith is now being forced to run for re-election in HD35, a newly-crafted seat covers eastern Orange and Osceola. The district, which has 80% of its vote coming from Orange, backed Biden by 5%. The seat is plurality white, with Hispanics making up 32% of the voting age population.
Hawkins still has some residual drama from his 2020 arrest, which was eventually pled down. He only secure 52% of the vote in his 2022 primary. A weak incumbent running for re-election in a Democratic-leaning seat is a perfect formula for a loss. However, Hawkins benefits from a major financial advantage. He has raised $500,000 while his Democratic opponent, Rishi Bagga, has only brought in just under $80,000. Outside money further advantages the GOP. On top of this, current turnout gives the GOP an advantage, with Republicans outpacing Democrats in votes cast.
Hawkins should be doomed, but there is a real shot he holds on in his district. However, he still reeks of scandal, so I would not categorize him as a favorite yet.
District 37
The punishing force of the Florida GOP can be best articulated by that fact that HD37 is being ranked as a tossup in my ratings. This Biden +11 district, which overlaps with the University of Central Florida, is represented by Democrat Carlos Guillermo Smith. It is traditionally a Democratic stronghold, but thanks to major GOP investment in the race, is a real contest.
Elected in 2016 as the state’s first LGBT Latino member, Rep Smith has been a loud and powerful voice for Florida’s liberal and LGBT population. He has garnered national attention for his forceful pushback against the state’s monstrous Don’t Say Gay Bill. Initially it was believe Smith would be secured in re-election. However, Republican interests have bombareded the district, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars aiming to take out Smith. Major companies, including Florida Sugar, who have no qualms about big spending, are donating to efforts to oust Smith. Republicans recruited Susan Plasencia, the sister of the popular outgoing Rep Rene Plasencia, to run for the seat. Smith, for his part, has raised over $350,000 in direct campaign cash, but between committees, parties, and PACS, the spending here is off the charts.
Before early voting began, I’d have pegged this race as still Lean/Likely Democratic. Biden +11 is still a tough seat for Republicans to overcome. However, turnout is currently very bad for Democrats here. GOP turnout is 6 points higher than Democrats, meaning a 6 point Democratic advantage in registration has turned into narrowly more GOP and DEM votes cast. The biggest lagging demographic for Smith is the campus vote. As of writing, turnout around campus is under 10%, and the youth vote has not made its presence felt yet. NOW, it must be noted, students tend to vote early or election day. For Smith, he needs students. Smith is a strong campaigner and if any Democrat can get the student vote out, its him. I do believe Tuesday will see a good campus showing. If UCF doesn’t show up, however, Smith could be taken down.
This race being on the board is a reflection of just how far the FL GOP and their interests can stretch the map thanks to their money.
District 38
Covering southern Seminole County, HD38 is a battle between a well-funded GOP incumbent, David Smith, and a newly-drawn district that backed Biden by 8 points. The seat is notably bluer than Smith’s current East-Seminole seat; giving him his toughest terrain so far. Not only did Biden take the seat by 8 points, the region is overall growing bluer with time. Democratic registration has gotten 4 points bluer since 2016.
Democrats have nominated non-profit director Sarah Henry, who has raised $250,000. However, Smith has brought on over $700,000. On top of this, outside money is further aiding Smith, ensuring the GOP has far out-spent Democrats in this region.
If the money was more even, this would be a Democratic pick-up. However, the resource disparity is making Smith a real contender to hold his seat.
District 45
House District 45 covers Southwestern Orange County and portions of Northwestern Osceola. This district has been trending more Democratic by the cycle. In 2020, it backed Biden by 5.5%. The district, which is heavily made up of suburban communities, has moved to to the left with the rest of suburbia. Since 2016, the registration has moved 7 points in the Democratic column, though independent voters make up the largest voting block.
Republican Carolina Amesty, the VP of Central Christian University, emerged from a bruising primary back in August. Her opponent is Democrat Allie Braswell. Both candidates have brought in around $200,000, but the outside money is decidely in the Republican edge. The question here becomes how much money can buy the seat for the GOP.
District 65
Covering coastal Tampa Bay, this Biden +4 district, like so many other upper-income communities, has gone from being steadfast red to modestly Democratic. Both parties are heavily investing in this seat, which got more Democratic in the redistricting process.
Republican Karen Gonzalez Pittman and Democrat Jen McDonald have both raised over $300,000, with Pittman needing to go through a primary first. The FLGOP has pumped plenty of cash into this district, but the airwaves are already crowded by the battle for Senate District 14.
Like many other districts on this list, on paper this is a good Democratic pickup opportunity. Turnout and money, however, could save the GOP here. I’d likely mark this as Tilt GOP if forced too, but overall its still anybody’s game. One x-factor will be how State Senator Janet Cruz doesn’t specifically within this seat’s borders in her own re-election.
District 91
HD91 is essentially the Boca Raton district. This Biden +4 seat has a very expensive contest between Highland Beach commissioner Peggy Gossett-Seidman (R) and Boca Raton Commissioner Andy Thomson (D).
Thomson has been a stellar fundraising, bringing in $450,000, more than Seidman’s $300,000. Of course, as always, the state GOP has been investing heavily here as well. However, given Thomson’s role as a Boca commissioner and his fundraising, I’d consider this one of the more likely tossup districts to go with Democrats.
District 113
Normally a district that voted for Biden by 11 points wouldn’t find itself in the tossup category, but that isn’t uncommon in Miami-Dade County. HD113, which covers parts of Miami and Key Biscayne, has an expensive open race. Both parties have been pouring cash into this district.
The democratic nominee is Alessandro “A.J.” D’Amico, a Cuban-American lawyer. His opponent is Vicki Lopez, a former Lee County commissioner from the 1990s. Miami-Dade Democrats have come out big for D’Amico, viewing holding this district as critical to having some sort of holding in the Hispanic region of Miami-Dade, which is rapidly trending to the right. Internal polls say the Democrats have a narrow lead, but within the margin of error.
Lean GOP Districts
These districts are not still on the outskirts of being tossups, but for one reason or another, have a clear advantage toward the Republicans. Much of this is driven by money and turnout.
District 36
This Biden +4 district covering North Seminole County, home to the Democratic voting block of Sanford, should be much more competitive.
However, candidate dynamics and turnout put this race in the GOP advantage. For one, the Republican nominee is Rachel Plakon, the wife of outgoing Rep Scott Plakon. She has raised over $300,000 for her bid. Her democratic opponent, Deborah Poulalion, has not crossed $50,000.
I almost had this as likely GOP, and I wouldn’t fault anyone for putting it there. How Sanford turnout is over the weekend and election day is an X-factor. That said, the GOP is favored to hold this.
District 39
HD39, covering Apopka in NE Orange County, was originally a tossup in my ratings, but has moved to Lean GOP. Democrat Tiffany Hughes has raised $200,000 in her bid for the post, and is running a strong campaign against Apopka commissioner Doug Bankson.
What is hurting Hughes right now is turnout. While Democrats edge Republicans narrowly in registration, the turnout is so GOP-heavy right now that the GOP have a 6% advantage over Democrats in share of the vote. While this could narrow with the final days, it could also expand, and certainly won’t close. Its hard to not then put this race as Lean GOP.
District 69
Over in Tampa Bay, Democratic State Rep Andrew Learned is likely heading for defeat. Learned was put into a Trump district after redistricting, which already put him into a tough re-election position. He faces lawyer Danny Alvarez.
While Learned has run an aggressive race, raising over $300,000 into his official campaign alone, there is also lots of money going against him. On top of this, turnout right now has the GOP would a 7% advantage in votes cast. Learned, for all his efforts, could still very much be facing an electorate that will be voting GOP at the top of the ticket, and ticket-splitting is less and less common these days.
Learned will likely be a redistricting victim, part of the GOP efforts to crack up Democratic growth in the I-75 Corridor around Tampa Bay. Long term, districts like this could grow bluer with time, but Learned right now is likely facing too uphill a climb.
Likely GOP Districts
These districts are even more in the GOP favor, but not ones I would call SAFE yet.
- District 22: This district links parts of Gainesville with rural Gilchrist and Levy County. GOP State Rep Chuck Clemons is favored over lawyer Brandon Peters in this Trump +1, Gillum +1 seat. Peters has good rural cross-over support, hailing from Levy. However, the cycle is giving Clemons plenty of cushion.
- District 61: This SW coastal Pinellas district is the successor to HD69. The district has a strong history of ticket splitting and has gone D and R in past elections. While the district backed Trump by 6 points, I would not be shocked if local-boy Charlie Crist wins the seat. However, with the way the GOP-lean of the cycle is shaking out, Republican Linda Chaney has a clear advantage over Democrat Janet Varnell Warwick.
- District 73: Covering coastal Sarasota County, this Trump +0.2 seat has an engaging race, but still with a solid GOP advantage. Democrat Derek Reich has raised $90,000 to take on GOP incumbent Fiona McFarland. Democrats flipped a different Sarasota-based Seat in a 2018 special, but lost it when it was open in 2020.
- District 94: This district covers western Palm Beach County, including several northern towns and the farming communities around Lake Okeechobee. Republican Incumbent Rick Roth should win this Biden +0.3 and Gillum +5 district. Democrat Terence Davis has only raised $15,000 and the only way Roth loses is if Palm’s expected GOP-wave on election day doesn’t materialize.
- District 100: Republican Chip LaMarca, a former Broward Commissioner, is favored to hold his coastal Broward seat. This district backed Biden by 1 point, but LaMarca has shown his ability to win over ticket-splitters since his 2010 commission election.
I wouldn’t be shocked if all of these districts give Republicans easy wins, but shockers are at least possible.
Likely DEM Districts
There are four districts that I would rank as Likely Democratic. They are not out of the range of a possible GOP shocker, but they are still not generating the most attention. A quick note on these
- District 47: This Biden +13 Hispanic-Majority is an open race between Democrat Anthony Nieves and Republican Paula Stark. Neither have raised a good deal of money, with Nieves taking in just $10,000 to Stark’s $40,000. Even with a GOP turnout advantage, Democrats still lead in votes cast by 9 points. This district was drawn as one of two Dem-leaning Osceola County districts with growing Puerto Rican populations. Even with GOP Hispanic gains, this district does not seem to be on the board.
- District 60: Covering Eastern Pinellas County, this Biden +12 district looks to be the consistent Democratic block in the region outside of the black-access HD62. Democrat Lindsay Cross has raised over $300,000 directly via her campaign account and is being praised for an aggressive campaign.
- District 93: Overlapping with the city of Wellington, this Biden +10 district should be held by Democrat Katherine Waldron. Right now Democrats maintain a solid turnout advantage, but election day in the region is expected to be much more GOP. The race has not generate massive spending compared to others.
- District 106: Covering the North Miami-Dade coast; from Aventura and Miami Beach, this district should be much more at risk for Democrats. This 43% white, 46% Hispanic district, voted for Biden by 10 points, but that was down from the 20% margin Andrew Gillum won it by in 2018. The district’s Hispanic and Jewish populations moved away from Dems in 2018, and how that trend continues might be bad for team blue. However, the candidates for this seat give Ds an advantage here. Bay Harbor Islands councilman Jordan Leonard is the Democratic nominee. Between his campaign and a political committee, he’s raised $600,000. His GOP opponent is Fabian Basabe, who is infamously known as the “male Paris Hilton“. He is a former socialite and reality TV star who has self-funded over $200,000 for his run. He was a nasty primary over Lynn Su Sutjapojnukul, who drew attacks for not denouncing the Proud Boys infiltrating the Miami-Dade GOP. In that primary, underfunded Douglas John Ross, who raised almost nothing, got 27% of the vote. That high vote share says voters didn’t like either Basabe or Sutjapojnukul. Leonard should take this seat. If he somehow falls, its a VERY bad night for Florida Democrats.
Some of these seats on paper could be tougher for Democrats considering the money dynamics this cycle. GOP inaction or bad candidates is aiding team blue here.
Conclusion
The overall narrative of these ratings is how bad of shape Democrats are in. Facing a uber-funded Republican Party, the map has shifted decidedly to the right.