It’s that time of the year! The Florida primaries are upon us. I present, my primary preview article. Coverage of every statewide, congressional, and legislative primary in the state.
This marks the first statewide elections to be held with Republicans in control of voter registration.
It’s been a long decline for Democrats, who once dominated registration in North Florida and other rural counties. Non-Partisan voters have seen their share of registration rapidly increase. However, most primaries this Tuesday will not give those voters an option to cast a ballot.
(The below image is a GIF of 1994-2022 registration, click the image for it to activate)
I intend to delve more into Florida’s voter registration history before the general election. In the meantime, lets delve into those primary races!
Statewide Primaries
There are four statewide Democratic primaries, while only one for Republicans.
Democratic US Senate Primary
That’s right, we technically have a primary for US Senate. While everyone knows Val Demings is going to be the democratic nominee, she has three opponents. Candidates William Sanchez, Brian Rush, and Ricardo De La Fuente have no chance at winning. What will be interesting, however, is to see how much the combined anti-Demings vote is. Unknown candidates have been good for tracking protest votes among rural Democrats; which is a topic I’ve covered here, here, and here. For example, here is the protest vote from 2018.
Protest votes are shrinking in Florida as that long tradition of rural Democrats change to GOP registration. Even a decade ago, many ancestral Democratic counties would post large vote totals for random candidates; a vote fueled by “Dixiecrats” showing up for local office elections. In essence, you’d have a bunch of rural democrats who want to support their local Democratic Sheriff, but already plan to vote GOP for Governor/Senator in the fall, so the cast a protest vote in that very primary. How much protest vote is left will be well measured by watching the anti-Demings vote.
Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
I think we all know a lot about the Democratic primary for Florida governor. Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried is in a race against Congressman Charlie Crist. Fried, first elected in 2018, has framed her campaign around being a new face. Crist, a former Republican Governor who switched parties in 2012, was elected to Florida’s 13th district in 2016. Before then, Crist had run for Governor as a Democrat in 2014, easily winning the primary but narrowly losing to Rick Scott in the general. The campaign originally started clean but has devolved into a nasty fight. Fried has aimed to use Crist’s past GOP positions against him. Crist, who was a liberal Republican as Governor, has touted his support for Obama’s stimulus plan (the move that ended his GOP career) and his liberal positions as a congressman. Despite Fried’s aims to frame herself as the left-wing candidate, Crist got the backing of prominent liberals in Florida: from Anna Eskamani to Shev Jones.
Fried aimed to use the Dobbs decision on abortion to use Crist’s previous pro-life statements against him in the primary. Fried has launched a “Roe the Vote” tour. Pro-choice groups like Emily’s List have not gotten involved in the primary, much to the frustration of the Fried campaign. Abortion has been weaponized by Republicans as well, who have spent money attacking Crist on the issue. Why are they doing this? Because they view Fried has easer to beat in the general.
In the closing weeks of the primary, Fried has been under fire for her campaign being aided by Florida Utilities and US Sugar. These are both groups that feuded with Crist when he was governor. When an article pointed out Fried not working to curb sugarcane burning (which has environmental and health damages), Fried claimed the reporters were paid by the Sierra Club to write it. This led to widespread condemnation and has likely stalled any momentum she had.
Polls in the primary have largely shown Crist ahead, sometimes by wide margins. A recent UNF poll gave Fried a 4-point lead. However, the poll’s sample was far too white (which is likely to be Fried’s best demographic). This contradicted Fried internals, which showed her down 7. While nothing can be ruled out, the belief is Crist has a lead in the polls.
The winner still will have a tough hill to climb against DeSantis.
Democratic Attorney General Primary
Three Democrats are facing off in the Democratic Primary for Attorney General. The race, however, is largely between Santa Rosa lawyer Daniel Uhlfelder and former Orlando-area State Attorney Aramis Ayala. Uhlfelder is best known for dressing up as the Grim Reaper at events to protest Florida’s weak mitigation measures during COVID. His stunts garnered him a sizable following. He’s managed to raise almost $400,000 from donors and the state’s campaign finance matching system.
Aramis Ayala, who’d been elected in 2016 as state attorney as a reformer, gained national attention in 2017 when she announced she would not use the death penalty in any cases. The result was Rick Scott moving capital cases to a different district and the Supreme Court eventually saying she could not make such unilateral decisions. Both Uhlfelder and the third candidate, Jim Lewis, have criticized Ayala’s stance. So you heard it hear, if you are anti-death penalty, Ayala is the only candidate. She has raised just over $100,000 and has the backing of many black lawmakers in Florida.
Lewis has largely self-financed, loaning his campaign just under $20,000.
Democratic and Republican Agriculture Commission Primary
Both parties have primaries for the post of Agriculture Commissioner, one is a nothing-contest and the other is cursed. Lets look at them.
The Democratic primary is a 3-way contest that has rapidly gotten messy and nasty. For the last few months, Miami-Dade Pastor, businesswoman, and Democratic committeewoman Naomi Blemur seemed to be the frontrunner. Blemur, who is Haitian-American, had been gaining the support of prominent democrats across the state. However, that support came crashing down when old homophobic and anti-choice comments came to light. While views can change, more has come out to reveal the Blemur modern positions may be an act. Most endorsing politicians rescinded their support. This thread does a good job covering how the campaign got so many endorsements; largely relying on consultants facilitating them.
Ryan Morales, a cannabis activist, and former candidate for HD32, has gotten some of the support Blemur lost. He and candidate J.R. Gaillot, who is also Haitian-American, initially were working together to stop Blemur’s momentum. However, now that Blemur is falling, they have turned on each-other. Gailott, who ran for Congress in 2012 and state house in 2016, recently got coverage when he showed instances of him being attacked by Blemur and Morales staff. Blemur’s treasurer accused Gaillot of being “a slave” while Morales’s communications director implied Gaillot want Florida to be like the “Reich Chancellery.” Morales’ initial reaction was to tell FloridaPolitics.com – regarding Gaillot – “He can go eff himself.” Morales, who has recently been accused of breaking labor and campaign finance laws, later opted to fire the communications direct, Travis Henville, who then went after his former boss on twitter.
All and all, this primary is a mess. No candidate has much money either, meaning most voters likely know little of what is going on. Blemur has raised just $42,000 while Gaillot and Morales are both around $15,000.
Meanwhile, the Republican primary is largely an afterthought. Republican Senate President Wilton Simpson is on course to win the GOP primary for this post. Simpson’s background is in farm, as his family runs a multi-million-dollar egg farm in Pasco County. As I covered in my substack post, Simpson originally was threated with a primary from Chuck Nadd. This was during the redistricting fight between DeSantis and the legislature. As Simpson refused to back DeSantis’ racist congressional plan, Nadd suddenly entered the race. The believe is that Nadd was recruited as a threat against Simpson. Sure enough, once Simpson backed the Governor’s redistricting plan, Nadd dropped out. Now Simpson, who has raised over $2,000,000 and has DeSantis’ backing, faces James Shaw, who has self-funded $100,000. Shaw, who ran a worm farm in Pennsylvania, moved to Florida 12 years ago. The hard-money fight is solidly in Simpson’s favor; and the Senator has even more money aiding him from political committees. No one expects this to not end in a Simpson landslide.
Congressional Primaries
Now let’s go through the Congressional primaries. Thanks to the DeSantis-demand gerrymander, only a few districts are considered competitive. The map also severely weakened the power of black voters; reducing the number of black-performing districts from 4 to 2. Most primaries will decide the Congresspeople for these seats. I delved into the new districts in this post, so I recommend checking that out for more info on each district. I also covered the saga of Florida redistricting in my substack.
Lets get started!
Congressional District 1 DEM and GOP Primary
In Northwest Florida, Congressman Matt Gaetz is facing a self-funding primary opponent in Mark Lombardo, a veteran and former FedEx executive. Lombardo, who has attacked Gaetz over the investigation into the Congressman paying for sex, has loaned his campaign over $750,000. Gaetz has brought in the MAGA cavalry for his primary, hosting a litany of visiting Congresspeople. Past primaries have shown Gaetz under-performing in the Pensacola suburbs, an area that could perform well for Lombardo.
In the end, it’s unlikely, investigation aside, that Gaetz will lose his primary. Lack of new news on that subject is helping Gaetz here. However, the Feds are still working out a final agreement with Gaetz associate Joel Greenberg, the former Seminole Tax Collector, who is likely trying to flip on the Congressman with evidence to get a lighter sentence for himself. Legal trouble for Gaetz is still very possible. Electoral consequences, however, may not come in an increasingly radicalized GOP. While I don’t believe Lombardo will win, I do think it will be interesting to see how some of the higher-educated suburbs vote. Don’t get confused though, Lombardo is running as a conservative. In perhaps one of craziest ads of the cycle, Lombardo actually makes a claim that Gaetz is the informant on Donald Trump.
There is, on paper, a Democratic primary to face off against Gaetz. Lawyer Peggy Schiller is the presumptive Democratic nominee. Her opponent, Rebekah Jones, who made national headlines when she was fired from the state of Florida’s COVID tracker in 2020. Jones alleged this was because she was instructed to manipulate data and refused. This, and I need to stress this as someone who despises the Governor, was NOT true. Jones was fired for being a bad employee and used the COVID issue to become famous. Jones was also arrested for steeling data from the state, and was fired from FSU years ago for stalking a student. Many Democrats have denounced her as a charlatan who muddles the message on COVID, while she still has major defenders. In the end, none of it may matter. Jones was recently kicked off the Democratic ballot when it was revealed she had not been a registered democrat a full year before qualifying. That ruling has been stayed pending a review by the appeals court, which may be decided on after this post goes lives.
No matter who emerged from these primaries, the district is a guarantee to remain Republican in November.
Congressional District 3 DEM and GOP Primary
Covering Gainesville and the rural counties of Northeast Florida, Congressional District 3 is a steady GOP district. Incumbent Kat Cammack, who won a crowded 2020 primary, has two GOP opponents here. However, Cammack has a huge multi-million dollar war-chest and the backing of Donald Trump. Cammack, who worked for former FL-03 Congressman Ted Yoho, generated some conservative grumbling when she backed a bill to codify Same-Sex marriage nationwide. When attacked for this on Instagram, Cammack defended her vote and accused opponents of also not supporting interracial marriage. This generated online grumbling, but it has not led to a strong effort to unseat her. Her two opponents, businessman Manuel Asensio and veteran Justin Waters, have not even cracked $50,000 raised. While far-right rags are screaming about this incident, there is little evidence she will have any trouble next week.
Two Democrats, manager Danielle Hawk and retired physician Tom Wells, are running in a primary. However, both are woefully unfunded, each collecting around $30,000. Whoever emerges will have a hard time against Cammack in this red seat.
Congressional District 4 DEM and GOP Primary
Three Republicans are facing off in the primary for this GOP-leaning district made up of Nassau, Clay, and part of Duval County. This is part of the redrawing of Jacksonville to crack black voters and destroy the black-performing 5th district.
The heavy frontrunner here is State Senator Aaron Bean, who has locked up the bulk of the Florida GOP establishment. Bean’s closest opponent has been far-right gadfly Erick Aguilar, who has gone hard negative on Bean through the primary. Aguilar, however, has been rocked by a scandal that emerged from him being kicked off of WinRed, a conservative fundraising network. It turns out Aguilar was sending out solicitations under the names of Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, allowing him to raise over $1,000,000 in small donations. DeSantis himself called Aguilar’s actions “fraud.” Recent polls show Bean has over 50% of the primary vote, with Aguilar down at 16%. A third candidate, Jon Chuba, is at 6%.
On the Democratic side, former State Senator Tony Hill is facing off against LaShonda “L.J.” Holloway, who has run for the current 5th Congressional district in 2016 and 2020. Hill has not been in the Senate for many years, while Holloway never was able to win the Jacksonville vote in her past primary runs. Hill has only managed to raise $50,000, which is more than LJ’s $10,000.
Bean is very likely heading to Congress when this year is over.
Congressional District 5 Republican Primary
Congressional District 5, which covers part of Duval and St Johns, has an GOP primary open to all voters. The only candidates to file were Republicans, but incumbent John Rutherford, the former Duval Sheriff, is a guarantee to win re-election. He has two underfunded primary opponents, but has shown no risk himself of being ousted. While Rutherford has raised $500,000, Mara Macie has raised just $25,000 while Leigha “Luna” Lopez has raised $50,000.
Congressional District 6 Republican Primary
In Congressional District 6, Incumbent Michael Waltz has one GOP challenger. The district changed modestly from redistricting, gaining more inland counties (Putnam and Marion namely). Waltz, who has raised $2.5 million, has a primary challenge from Charles Davis, who is running from Waltz’s right. That said, Davis has raised no money and there is no indicator Waltz has generated opposition in his party.
Congressional District 7 DEM and GOP Primary
Congressional District 7 was redrawn as part of the GOP gerrymander, moving it from Seminole-Orange to Seminole-Volusia. Switching out the heavily-Democratic Orange for the solidly red Volusia made the new district Trump +6.
With Democratic Incumbent Stephanie Murphy retiring, EIGHT Republicans have filed for the post.
- Brady Duke, a minister and former Navy SEAL. He’s raised $2.8 million
- Cory Mills, a veteran and DOD advisor in the Trump admin. He’s raised $1.8 million, but $1.5 million is loans
- Anthony Sabatini, a far-right state house member from Lake County. He’s raises $1.2 million
- Rusty Roberts, former COS to former Congressman John Mica. He’s raised $340,000
- Erika Benfield, the former Vice Mayor of DeBary. She’s raised $200,000
- Ted Edwards, a former Orange County commissioner. He’s raised $400,000
- Al Santos, a veteran and business owner. He’s raised $270,000
- Scott Sturgill, a businessman. He’s raised $280,000.
Third party money is also flooding the race.
Most of these candidates are running under MAGA, right-wing banners. Sabatini is infamous in Florida for his far-right posts and general twitter trolling. He also threatened to shoot protesters during the BLM protests, posting a photo of an AR-15 rifle. Sabatini is known to be hated by both parties in the legislature. Republican leaders view him like Mike Hill (see my HD1 breakdown) – a bombastic figure that causes controversy for them. Sabatini was relegated to a basement office after months of feuding with GOP leaders; including calling Speaker Sprowls a “beta” and fellow GOP member Thad Altman a “cuck”. After missing out on many meetings due to fundraising events, Sabatini was also removed from a legislative committee. Needless to say, FL GOP leadership despise Sabatini.
Edwards is running a more moderate-right campaign, for example he’s defending gun control measures, which makes sense considering Orange County Republicans are much more moderate. However, he may not have much of an avenue since Orange is not in the district.
It is hard to say for sure who will win. A recent St Pete Poll had Mills and Sabatini tied for first, but both with 22%-23% of the vote. The severe GOP divide gives many candidates a shot at winning.
Four Democrats are running for the post, but none have raised a good deal of cash. With the district backing Trump by 7, there is not much hope for an upset, even if a Sabatini wins. Karen Green, one of the Florida Democratic Party’s Vice Chairs, has raised almost $30,000; the most for the Democratic field.
Congressional District 8 Democratic Primary
Two Democrats are in a primary for the right to take in Congressman Bill Posey in the 8th district, which is a solidly red seat. Joanne Terry and Danelle Dodge have raised between $40,000 and $70,000 in their bids for the nomination. However, there is not much hope for a Democrat running in the 8th district.
Congressional District 9 Republican Primary
After the 2020 swing of Hispanics to the right, there was internal discussions in the Florida GOP about making a play for the Hispanic-access (and now Hispanic-majority) 9th district. These plans were ended when redistricting caused the seat to shrink out of Polk, resulting in it becoming a Biden +18 seat.
Democratic Incumbent Darren Soto is a lock for re-election. However, that has not stopped four Republicans from lining up to challenge him. Scott Moore is the financial frontrunner with almost $400,000 raised. Former CD9 candidate Jose Castillo has raised $104,000. Adianis Morales has raised just $20,000. Sergio Ortiz has raised $12,000. Its likely Castillo or Moore will advance, but no one has a chance against Soto.
Congressional District 10 DEM and GOP Primary
Oh the 10th district, I have written about this saga plenty. This deep-blue district in Orlando was reshaped in redistricting. The seat was drawn to become a Democratic vote-sink to aid in making the 7th leave Orange County. The current 10th is a black-access district with a majority or plurality black democratic primary. However, the new district was drawn to also grab white and Hispanic democrats, leading to a plurality white Democratic primary.
TEN Democrats are running for this seat, which is being left open by Val Deming’s US Senate bid. However, only 4-6 of these candidates have a shot at winning.
- Randolph Bracy, a current State Senator. Raised $500,000.
- Maxwell Frost, activist, and director of March for Our Lives. Raised $1.5 million.
- Corrine Brown, former Congresswoman for old 5th Congressional (when it was a Jacksonville to Orlando district). Also former inmate in prison for corruption. Raised $90,000.
- Alan Grayson, a former Congressman for the Orlando region. Raised $700,000, but $400,000 of that is loans.
- Terrence Gray, a minster. Has raised $300,000.
- Natalie Jackson, a Sanford civil rights attorney who worked on the Trayvon Martin case. Raised $120,000.
The race is very likely to be won by either Bracy, Frost, Brown, or Grayson. Frost is the left-wing candidate in the race, racking up endorsements from Elizabeth Warren, unions, and Orlando State Rep Anna Eskamani. He also has air cover from progressive PACs spending on his behalf. Bracy, who has represented the west end of the district in the house and senate, has a strong base of support, while Frost largely must introduce himself to new voters. The primary should have been a contest between the two of them, but Brown and Grayson’s entries shifted the campaigns. Grayson has been under fire for jumping in the race; clearly counting on a split black vote to win. Many white Democrats in the area called for solidarity and standing with the black community, who saw their electoral power diminished under the racist Congressman map. Grayson has rejected this, and his relations with the black community have rapidly soured. Greg Meeks (NY), the Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus PAC said
Our country is made better by having representatives who reflect our rich diversity. … Floridians deserve a representative who will fight for them and not just someone who wants to use their wealth to gain power.
Meeks Quote
Corrine Brown, meanwhile, who represented part of the district years ago, is eager for a comeback. I covered Brown and Grayson’s electoral history in this substack post.
It is hard to get a good sense of who will come out on top. The winner is likely to emerge with a small plurality.
Six Republicans are running, but considering this district voted for Biden by 32 points, it doesn’t matter. Both Willie Montague and Calvin B. Wimbish have raised over $200,000.
Congressional District 11 Republican Primary
Congressional District 11, which has 35% of its vote coming from the infamous Villages Retiree community, is home to a nasty GOP primary.
Incumbent Daniel Webster, who has represented different portions of central Florida in Congress since 2010, is facing off against far-right activist Laura Loomer. For those who remember, Loomer is most famous for handcuffing herself to the door of twitter headquarters after she was banned from the website for making Islamophobic posts. Loomer is in fact “proudly” Islamophobic and fits right in with the racist far right crowd. Loomer made her first run for Congress in South Florida, challenging Lois Frankel; losing by 20 points. Loomer makes Webster look like a moderate when comparing them on issues, that said Webster is still a steadfast conservative. Loomer isn’t the smartest campaigner; attacking Webster for his age in a district that includes THE VILLAGES! Her far-right crusades have allowed her to raised $700,000, which bests Webster’s $600,000.
While I cannot say for sure Webster will win, I do believe he is the strong favorite. Loomer wasn’t a strong 2020 candidate, getting under 50% in an under-funded GOP crowd. The GOP base for this district includes the Villages and many Lake and Orange County suburbs; voters Webster should be strong with.
Congressional District 12 Republican Primary
Congressional district 12, which includes Citrus, Hernando, and Pasco counties, has a GOP primary, for some reason. Incumbent Gus Michael Bilirakis is at no risk to lose his primary. This has not stopped four other Republicans from challenging him. The only candidate with any money, Chris Leiser and his $160,000, has even said he has no major qualm with Bilirakis. Leiser’s challenge largely stems from the notion of a fresh face being needed. While that is a valid point, he and the other challengers stand little chance against the longtime and liked incumbent.
Congressional District 13 Republican Primary
Congressional District 13 is another seat notably changed by the GOP gerrymander. The new Congressional lines have split Pinellas and the city of St Pete east-west. The result is a Trump +6 district; far redder than the narrow-Biden seat currently held by Charlie Crist. As a result of the gerrymandering, Democratic State Reps Michelle Rayner and Ben Diamond dropped their bids. Democrat Eric Lynn will be the Democratic nominee. Republicans have multiple candidates running, but only 3 of strong note.
- Anna Paulina Luna, a veteran and 2020 GOP candidate for the 13th. She won her 2020 primary with 36%. She has ties to Turning Point USA and PrageU. She has raised $1.9 million
- Kevin Hayslett, a business owner and former prosecutor from Clearwater. He’s raised $1.5 million
- Amanda Makki, a GOP operative who narrowly lost to Luna in the 2020 primary.
The race has been filled with negative barbs and outside spending. Luna is the candidate out the MAGA crowd, while Hayslett has much more local support. That said, Hayslett is not running from the MAGA wing, he is working to win it over. While Luna has the backing of Trump, Hayslett has backing from folks like Michael Flynn. Hayslett has attacked Luna as a RINO in a recent ad.
The latest poll shows Hayslett and Luna neck and neck. Luna has 37% while Hayslett has 34%. Makki is at 14%.
Congressional District 14 DEM and GOP Primary
In Congressional District 14, which in redistricting has been partially moved across the Tampa Bay, now including portions of Tampa and St Pete, is home to primaries from both parties.
Longtime Democratic Incumbent Kathy Castor is facing her first primary in 12 years. Her opponent, cybersecurity expert Christopher Bradley, has little to no chance to advance. His campaign focuses on Castor being “complacent” – however, there isn’t much evidence voters in the district feel this way. Bradley has only managed to raise $40,000, which is dwarfed by Castor’s $1.1 million.
Three Republicans, all first-time candidates, are running in a pretty petty and nasty primary for the right to lose to Castor in this Biden +19 district. Jerry Torres leads in the money fight with $400,000 raised and James Judge has brought in $160,000. Both have faced lawsuits over their ballot qualifications but remain on the ballot as of this moment. A third candidate, Samar “Sam” Nashagh, has raised under $30,000.
Despite many candidates in both primaries running, this is all very very likely to end with a Castor re-election.
Congressional District 15 DEM and GOP Primary
Both parties are holding primaries for the Congressional District 15 primary. This new configuration of the 15th is a lean-R swing district that backed Donald Trump by 3 and DeSantis by 1. The district is anchored out of Northeast Hillsborough, including portions of Polk and Pasco Counties.
While 5 Republicans are running for the GOP nomination, only three have a chance. Former FL Secretary of State Laurel Lee, the wife of former State Senate Tom Lee, is the frontrunner. She is facing off against State Rep Jackie Toledo and State Senator Kelli Stargel. Lee currently leads primary polls with 43%, with Stargel back at 15% and Toledo’s 11%. Lee has raised $600,000 and has $1,000,000 in aid from a PAC tied to Tom Lee. Stergel has raised $350,000 while Toledo has raised $560,000. This looks like its heading for a Lee win.
Democrats have multiple candidates vying for the nomination. Eddie Geller leads the primary in money with $500,000 raised. Geller is a video producer who got involved with MoveOn.org over a decade ago doing work for them. Alan Cohn is a investigative journalist who was the democratic nominee for the old 15th in 2020, but loss to Congressman Scott Franklin. He’s raised $180,000. Geller or Cohn are likely to advance. Three other candidates, Gavin Brown, Cesar Ramirez, and William VanHorn have raised $25,000 or less.
Congressional District 16 Republican Primary
A bizarre primary is unfolding in the 16th Congressional District, which covers Manatee and parts of Hillsborough counties. Incumbent Vern Buchanan has one primary opponent, Martin Hyde. The far-right candidate, who has the backing of people like Michael Flynn, has run for Sarasota city council multiple times. He generated headlines earlier this year when he threatened to get a cop fired after he was pulled over for going 57 in a 30 mph limit. Hyde has also faced allegations revolving around threats of violence and suicide from an ex-girlfriend. Buchanan is expected to easily win this primary. Hyde has loaned his campaign almost $200,000 for his bid. In the end, he is still heading for a landslide loss against the well-liked incumbent.
Congressional District 18 Republican Primary
Congressman Scott Franklin is running for re-election in the newly-drawn 18th district. Franklin currently represents the 15th district, which he won after knocking off scandal-plagued incumbent Ross Spano. Franklin, a Lakeland commissioner at the time, won by dominating in his Polk County base.
Franklin’s new district largely includes voters he does not currently represent.
However, Polk County still controls the primary. It should be no surprise then, that three of four of his primary opponents also hail from Polk, the last hailing from Lake County. Franklin’s opponents all fall on same level of the right to far-right political scale. Of all his opponents, the biggest fundraiser is Jennifer Raybon, who’s loaned her campaign $50,000 and raised a few grand. Franklin, meanwhile, sits on $800,000 and has shown no real vulnerability.
Congressional District 19 Republican Primary
In this Naples and Cape Coral district, Republican Byron Donalds has one primary challenger. Donalds, who largely retains the same district from 2020, originally won a very divided GOP primary for the seat.
This go around, Donalds’ only opponent is first-time candidate Jim Huff; who’s raised just $17,000. Donalds will win easily.
Congressional District 20 Democratic Primary
District 20, a majority-black district covering Broward and Palm Beach, is seeing a rematch from its 2021 special election primary. In 2021’s Democratic primary, lawyer and healthcare businesswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick won a very divided primary to replace the recently-passed Alcee Hastings. She edged out County Commissioner Dale Holness by 5 votes!
Since that election, the district has seen modest changes, the biggest being its losing Miramar.
Holness has opted to challenge McCormick, and he is joined by State Representative Anika Omphroy. I delve into Holness more in my 2021 preview article. McCormick is likely to win this rematch, she has gotten the backing of 3rd, 4th, and 5th place Democrats. Holness, meanwhile, is strongest in the Caribbean voters in the central Broward region of the district. However, that limits his support outside of central Broward. On top of this, Omphroy, like Holness, is Caribbean, and risks taking more votes from him than McCormick. The primary has been especially nasty, with both Holness and McCormick trading barbs over ethics and corruption. McCormick has recently filed a libel lawsuit against Holness over attacks that claimed she embezzled money to fund her Congressional run (she has largely self-funded millions). Omphroy, meanwhile, has not run much of a campaign at all. Her entry was also very last minute.
McCormick is likely to emerge the victor in this primary.
Congressional District 21 Republican Primary
Congressional District 21 is just the old 18th but being renumbered. FL-18 Incumbent Brian Mast is running for re-election in this St Lucie, Martin, and northern Palm Beach County district; and he’s raised over $5,000,000. Mast has three primary opponents. Jeff Buongiorno, a retired law enforcement officer, has raised over $400,000, though most of that is his own money. Ljubo Skrbic, a medical professional who ran for US Senate in Georgia in 2020, has raised just $25,000. The candidate generating the most coverage is Melissa Martz, who has raised $300,000. Martz has focused on Mast’s 2018 op-ed which called for banning assault rifles. Mast, at the time, said he did not fear any blowback from primary voters, though he has changed his tune in recent years. He voted against the recent bipartisan gun reform package and says he doesn’t “trust” the democrats on the matter. Its too little, too late for Martz, who is running these signs!
Buongiorno has called out the signs as stupid, while Mast has largely sidestepped the issue. Meanwhile, voters had some thoughts, and they put those thoughts on one of the signs. Others have been torn down.
In the end, Mast should win. He has not given voters in the district, which includes many upper income suburban Republicans and retirees, a reason to reject him. The signs are over the top, and what could play well in the rural, it shouldn’t play well in the 21st. But…. Maybe I’m wrong and we should keep an eye on this.
Congressional District 22 Republican Primary
I do not know why, but several Republicans are running for the suicide mission of taking on Lois Frankel in this Biden +18 district, which covers Palm Beach county. Deborah Adeimy, who worked at Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley, has raised $200,000. Rod Dorilás, an attorney, has raised $560,000. Dan Franzese, also from a finance background, has raised $800,000; but most of that is loans. A few other candidates are running, but these are the big money candidates. Whoever wins will lose to Frankel. Wastes of donor and personal cash.
Congressional District 23 DEM and GOP Primary
Ted Deutch is retiring, and his district, now the 23rd, has primaries on both sides. The district, which covers North Broward and parts of Palm Beach, is a deep blue district. The seat voted for Biden by 13%. It is home to a large Jewish population, both retiree and younger. The 55+ communities of Wynmoor and Century Village are always critical stops in any local Democratic candidate’s schedule.
The GOP primary does not matter. Like the 22nd district, there are well funded Republicans who all stand no chance in November. Darlene Cerezo Swaffar has raised $270,000. James Pruden has raised $220,000. Joe Budd has raised $140,000. Four other candidates raised under $100,000. It doesn’t matter, the important primary is the Democratic side.
On the Democratic side, six candidates have filed, but realistically it is a two-man race. Former State Representative Jared Moskowitz is considered the frontrunner. Moskowitz has been a fixture in the Northwest corner of the district for over a decade. In 2008, he was elected to the Parkland City Council, and then was elected state representative in 2012. Moskowitz was heavily involved with the families of the victims of the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting. Then, in 2019, he was appointed the Director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management by Ron DeSantis. This may surprise non-Floridians, but this was during Ron’s 2019 “bipartisan” mood, before he went hard right.
Moskowitz is considered a moderating force in the DeSantis administration, advocating mitigation measures, which eventually clashed with DeSantis’ right-wing approach. A fun note is when Jared changed his twitter handle to “MASKowitz.” Now running for Congress, his main opponent, Ft Lauderdale Vice Mayor Ben Sorenson, is using the appointment as an attack. Sorenson, who hails from the south end of the district, is aiming to cast Moskowitz as a DeSantis ally. I, and the Sun Sentinel, do not buy this. I shudder to imagine the department being run by a DeSantis yes-man. I’m pretty sure Jared personally kept me alive for that first year by being a rational and cautious (pardon the personal note).
In terms of the results, Moskowitz is still considered the heavy favorite, raising over $1,000,000 and with outside PAC support. He is likely to dominate in the Northwest end of the district and perform very strong with Jewish voters. Sorenson has potential in the southern Democratic communities by Ft Lauderdale and will die-hard leftists. However, in a district with large Jewish retiree communities, a constituency Moskowitz has always been strong with, this is still his race to lose.
Congressional District 24 DEM and GOP Primary
Frederica Wilson is facing a random primary challenge Kevin Harris; who has no chance of defeating her. Meanwhile, Jesus Navarro and Lavern Spicer are running in the GOP primary to take Wilson on in this DEEEEEP blue seat. Spicer has actually raised over $200,000 thanks to being a twitter troll for the MAGA crowd. All of this won’t matter, and Wilson will win her primary and general easily.
Congressional District 25 DEM and GOP Primary
Congressional District 25 is a slightly modified of the old 23rd. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the longtime incumbent for the district, is running for re-election in this South Broward seat.
Schultz faced a serious primary threat in 2016; fueled by left-wing anger at her time as DNC chair. However, after winning by just over 10 points, she has not faced a real threat since. DNC drama aside, Schultz is well known for her constituent work, which helps insulate her from critique. The district is also home to more moderate suburban Democrats, making left-wing challenges tricky. Her lone primary opponent, Robert Millwee, is so left wing he openly attacked Biden at the Sun Sentintel editorial board. Let me tell you, that move does not play well with most Broward Democrats. Expect Schultz to easily win her primary.
Meanwhile, two Republicans are running to take Schultz on in this Biden +20 district. Carla Spalding, who lost to Schultz in 2020, has raised $1.6 million by fundraising, which is stunning considering it wont matter at all; but Schultz is a an easy target to rake in cash from GOP small donors. Her opponent is Rubin Young, a political gadfly who has run multiple times under both party banners over the years.
Congressional District 26 Republican Primary
In Congressional District 26, the successor to FL-25, Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart is running for re-election. He has one primary opponent, Darren Aquino, who is a perennial candidate. Aquino has run in the FL-19th (on west end of state) and to be NYC Mayor. Needless to say, Diaz-Balart is going to easily win.
Congressional District 27 DEM and GOP Primary
The 27th district, located just south of Miami Beach, has a Democratic primary to see who will take on 1st term Republican Maria Salazar. State Senator Annette Taddeo is the primary frontrunner. While Taddeo was originally running for Governor, she opted to move to Congress as Crist and Fried continued to dominate coverage. Her main opponent is Miami Commissioner Ken Russell. Taddeo has raised $700,000 for her bid, while Russell has raised $1.9 million. Despite that gap, Taddeo benefits from strong name ID. It is widely believed Taddeo win, as she’s held a wide lead over Russell in polls.
Salazar has a primary from 2020 write-in candidate Frank Polo. However, there is no real threat to Salazar losing, and Polo has only raised $20,000.
Congressional District 28 DEM and GOP Primary
The 28th Congressional District of Florida is largely just the 26th with a new number. This seat covers southern Miami-Dade and the Florida Keys. First term Republican Congressman Carlos Gimenez is running for a 2nd term. He faces two longshots primary challengers but is not expected to have any trouble winning the nomination. Candidates Carlos Garin and Karl “KW” Miller have not found any real opening to hit Gimenez.
On the Democratic side, former State Rep Robert Asencio jumped, giving Democrats a decent candidate in a district they don’t especially think they can flip back in 2022. Asencio first must best first-time candidate Juan Paredes.
State Senate Primaries
Next up is the primaries for State Senate seats. The partisan makeup of the new lines can be seen below.
You can also view an interactive version of the districts here.
Lets get going!
District 1 – Republican Primary
Senate District 1 is located in the far-west end of the Florida panhandle. A deep-red district, the seat’s GOP primary is all that matters. Incumbent Doug Broxson, an establishment conservative, is a lock to win the primary. He faces a challenge from John Mills, a perennial candidate who has gotten single-digits in several failed primaries against Matt Gaetz. Mills has criticized Broxson for his support of the modest gun restrictions as part of the 2018 Parkland Safety Bills, but his critique has generated no momentum and he’s only raised $5,000 vs Broxson’s $250,000+.
District 2 – Republican Primary
In June, District 2 Senator George Gainer announced he would not be running for re-election, namely citing health concerns. The district is based in the panhandle, west of Tallahassee, with Gainer hailing from Bay County. The district’s biggest voting blocks are Bay and Okaloosa County.
Gainer’s retirement led to Republican leaders, including DeSantis, to endorse Bay County State Rep Jay Trumbull. The backing of Trumbull has resulted in the representative raising a staggering $400,000 in just two months. Trumbull’s opponent is Regina Piazza, who hails from Destin, on the west end of the district. Piazza was already in a primary against Gainer. She is running from the right of the party, and has attacked Trumbull for his support for red flag laws in the 2018 Parkland bill (see District 1 primary notes). Piazza comes into the primary from an anti-establishment wing of the party, stating “I’m absolutely a Judeo-Christian conservative first. I’m a constitutionalist second. And I’m a Republican third. And there is no stepping out of that order — period.” She has raised $30,000 and self-funded another $28,000. With Trumbull having DeSantis backing and having six-figures in cash, its hard to see him losing. That said, I am interested how Piazza does in the west end of the district.
District 5 – Democratic Primary
Two democrats are facing off in the primary for the black-access HD5, which is located in the heart of Jacksonville. This deep-blue district has a majority-black Democratic primary. State House member Tracie Davis is facing off against city councilman Reggie Gaffney.
Gaffney, who was once a Republican and part of the very conservative First Baptist Church in Downtown, would very likely be a conservative Democrat in the legislature; along the same lines as Kim Daniels or James Bush III. Davis, meanwhile, has been a liberal Democrat during her time in the state house. Gaffney has seen his campaign coffers flushed with GOP cash, which Davis was sure to highlight in mailers. On the other side, Gaffney has claimed Davis is the conservative, using misleading statements from her time working at the Duval Elections Department; namely her praising her Republican boss.
The race is a major money fight. In addition to outside cash, both candidates are raking in checks. Davis has raised $200,000 from her official account and raised another $700,000 via a political committee. Gaffney has raised $150,000 via his campaign and another $460,000 with his political committee. The race has conservative and business groups flushing Gaffney with cash, while Davis brings in liberal and trial lawyer money.
Whoever wins will have no trouble taking the seat in November. This primary is what counts and its a clear right vs left fight within the Democratic caucus.
District 7 – Republican Primary
Located in the Northeast coast of Florida, just south of Jacksonville, Senate District 7 is a deep-red district held by Travis Hutson. While a strong favorite to win re-nomination, Hutson has a primary challenger from professional goffer Gerry James. Despite Hutson being a reliable conservative vote, James is attempting to attack Hutson as a RINO. James was also a former professional wrestler; with a ring name as “Agent Orange” in the WWF before leaving the industry after becoming “born again.” James has run as a populist, anti-establishment candidate – his most notable endorsement being Sarah Palin. Hutson is still a strong favorite as the incumbent; raising $170,000, with tens of thousands more in political committees. Gerry has raised $40,000 – an impressive sum as a long-shot against an incumbent senator. The theme of of James’ campaign has been that he is the true Christian conservative while Hutson is a corrupt, developer-backed RINO. This type of campaign can absolutely work in GOP primaries, but Hutson’s strong name ID, money, and lack of real scandal, make him a strong favorite.
District 8 – Democratic Primary
Two Democrats are engaged in a primary for the unenviable task of facing Republican Tommy Wright in this Trump +15 district that covers parts of Volusia and Brevard counties. Neither Andrea Williams or Richard Dembinsky have raised more than $5,000; while Dembinksy is a notable perennial candidate. The winner is destined to lose to Wright in November.
District 10 – Republican Primary
Senate District 10, which includes all of Seminole County and part of Orange, is going to be a high-profile race in November for this Biden +4 seat. Incumbent Jason Brodeur faces scandal over a ghost-candidate scheme from 2020’s election that aimed to siphon off left-wing voters from his Democratic challenger. The emerging scandal, which I detailed in this substack post, risks weighing down Brodeur with voters. As a result of the scandal, he got a last-minute primary challenge from Denali Charres. However, Charres has not been able to raise any real money, less than $1,000. Brodeur has retained institutional support and will win the primary. However, I will be watching for any protest votes or blank ballots to see if the scandal is causing disconnect with the suburban GOP base of the district. In the fall, Broduer will face off with Democratic State Rep Joy Goff-Marcil.
District 15 – Democratic Primary
Located in western Orange County, including parts of Orlando, Senate District 15 is a black-access district that is overwhelmingly Democratic. The seat is open thanks to Senator Randolf Bracy running for Congress. The Democratic primary is between State Rep Geraldine Thompson and fellow Rep Kamia Brown; both prominent black officials in the community. Since no other candidates filed, the primary is open to all voters; meaning its primary is likely to be plurality white.
Brown and Thompson have little that separates them ideologically; with most sniping on the trail revolving around outreach and how much to work with the Republican majority in the legislature. The most interesting dynamic is Brown’s money vs Thompson’s name ID. Brown has far outraised Thompson, $250,000 vs $30,000. Brown has also racked up prominent endorsements from local officials. However, Thompson is a well-known figure in the community. She was originally elected to the state house in 2006, then state senate in 2012. After losing to Val Demings in 2016 for the newly-drawn Congressional District 10, she would win House District 44 in 2018. District 44 was a white-majority district, which Thompson won contested primaries and generals in. While the 44th has little overlap with the state senate districts; especially compared to Brown’s HD45 (which she has held since 2016), Thompson’s other seats cover much of the district.
Either candidate has the potential for victory here.
District 20 – Republican Primary
Located in parts Hillsborough and Manatee County, Senate District 20 has an open GOP primary. Incumbent Jim Boyd has a challenge from perennial candidate John “Manners” Houman. Since no Democrat or independent filed, the primary will be open to all voters. The district is Trump +12 and a primary is likely to be around 50% GOP voters and 37% DEM voters. Houman has no real campaign apparatus or support; having run multiple times and getting only 10% of the vote in a GOP primary with Boyd in 2020. Boyd has raised and spent over $130,000 so far, just to avoid any shockers. Many Democrats may leave the race blank, or back Houman as a protest (to almost every voter he will just be a name on the ballot they never heard of). Expect a huge Boyd win.
District 22 – Republican Primary
Senate District 22, which includes all of Sarasota County and portions of Manatee, is home to a complicated Republican Primary. Senator Joe Gruters, who is also Chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, is facing a challenge from conservative activist Michael Johnson. The primary is open to all voters, since no Democrat or independent filed for November. If recent voting is any indicator, the partisan makeup of the voting pool will be around 46% Republican, 41% Democrat. Johnson, a veteran who later worked with the Department of Defense’s Fourth Estate Agencies, has been a conservative activist in Seminole County for years, but is now living in Sarasota. His time in Seminole saw him feud with local GOP, which eventually led to clashes between him and the RPOF and Gruters. As a result, Gruters has characterized the primary challenge as a vendetta.
Gruters retains strong support from the GOP establishment. Despite having a rocky relationship with DeSantis, the Senator has the backing of Donald Trump and the local Republican Party. While Johnson has self-funded $41,000 of a campaign, Gruters has raised over $140,000 through his official account. Things got more interesting when a mailer went out to Democrats attacking Johnson as a “MAGA clown.”
The mailer was paid for by Accountability in Government Inc – which takes in and spends money from multiple groups and toward multiple races – making the direct funding of the mailer hard to pin down. The effort is clearly aimed at preventing Democrats from backing Johnson to embarrass Gruters. This happens at the same time Gruters, who denies being involved with the mailer (yeah sure….), touts his backing from Trump. Gruters can very likely expect an overwhelming share of the GOP vote, with any risk coming from united DEM and disgruntled GOP opposition. This is unlikely to happen, mailers aside. Similar to SD20, a good number of Democrat’s may simply leave the race blank.
District 26 – Republican Primary
Senate District 26 is a solidly Democratic seat located in Palm Beach County. Two Republicans are engaged in a suicide mission to go against Senator Lori Berman. Steve Byers and William Wheelen are running for the GOP nomination. Byers, a beekeeper, has self-funded over $50,000 for his run – giving him a strong advantage over Wheelen, who’s only raised $10,000. Whoever wins, they have no chance in this Biden +17 district.
District 34 – Democratic Primary
In 2020, Democrat Shev Jones became the first openly gay State Senator in Florida history. He won then-SD35, a majority-black district covering South Broward and North Dade. Jones, who’s lineage traces to the Bahamas, was also the first openly gay state representative of color. His win, which I covered in my 2020 primary preview, saw him defeat a litany of notable challengers; including multiple state representatives, a former senator, and local officials.
Heading into this primary, Jones is running for re-election in the newly-drawn Senate District 34, which is based in North Miami-Dade. The majority-black district covers much of Northeast Dade, including the inland black population as well as the white and Hispanic dominated condos and coastal neighborhoods. The east coast of the district is also home to sizeable Jewish and retiree populations. The districts black population is also split between Caribbean and non-Caribbean black voters; who have often voted in competition for control of primaries. Jones has drawn two Democratic challengers. Since no non-Democrats have filed, the primary will be open to all voters. Likely primary makeup will be more Hispanic as a result of being open, but will still be majority-black overall.
The district, and the candidates, reflect the diversity and large immigrant population of the district. The primary features Jones facing off against first-time candidate Pitchie Escarment, of Haitian decent, and 2020 opponent Erhabor Ighodaro, a Nigerian immigrant; who is a former Miami Gardens city councilman.
Jones is losing a large batch of voters that were strong for him in 2020. However, he still won the precincts he’s retained, and has plenty of opportunity to grow in the coastal areas.
The 2020 primary got especially nasty, as Jones was subject to an anti-gay smear campaign, including anti-gay and anti-Jones text messages, aiming to hurt Jones with the social conservative voters prominent in black, but especially Caribbean black, communities in South Florida. Ighodaro ran an anti-gay campaign in 2020, pushing “family values” and “traditional marriage” an with constant reports of his staff questioning Jones’ morals to voters off camera. Inghodaro has further leaned into his anti-LGBT positions, recently saying “I don’t believe in 110 pronouns” at a candidate forum. Overall, Ighodaro has raised $80,000 between his official account and a political committee (with $25,000 of that being loans).
Pitchie Escarment, meanwhile, has largely run on similar issues as Jones, with fewer controversies than Ighodaro. She has loaned her campaign over $20,000, which is most of her warchest. Jones, meanwhile, has run on his record in the legislature and remains a liberal standard bearer for the region. Jones is well liked in the Democratic party establishment and liberal bases – allowing him to rake in hundreds of thousands of dollars via both his hard money account and political committees.
Jones is widely believed to be secured for the primary. Any anti-gay opposition pushed by Ighodaro will be strongest in the west end of the district where more conservative voters are; while the east end of the district is likely to be a dominant region for Jones. 2020 also showed most voters in the region had no stomach for such negative tactics.
Hopefully, after this race, Ighodaro will get out of politics. He has no place in the party.
District 35 – Democratic Primary
Senate District 35 is home to perhaps the nastiest primary in the state. I have covered this district in detail in substack posts here and here. The district covers the Southwest corner of Broward County, and is home to a diverse electorate, including sizable black, Hispanic, and white populations. The district is also home to sizeable Jewish and Caribbean voters. Democratic Senator Lauren Book is being challenged by former county commissioner Barbara Sharief. Since they are the only candidates to file, the Democratic primary is open to all voters.
I delve much more into details in the linked substack posts, but the bulk of this district is already represented by Book. Redistricting moved her district further south, adding in Miramar and moving largely south of 595. This led to Book living just outside the district, through she is moving. Sharief has claimed therefor this isn’t primarying an incumbent. Book is also the Democratic leader, and Democratic groups were furious by this primary, arguing it draws resources better spent elsewhere. The race seen hundreds of thousands of dollars from official accounts and political committees flood the district. The race has been especially nasty, with Sharief claiming Book is not aggressive enough as leader. Book, meanwhile, has been able to tout support from the vast majority of the Senate Democratic caucus. Book has hit Sharief for when her company was fined for overbilling Medicaid, which has led Sharief to sue Book for libel. Sharief’s campaign recently ran an ad with audio of Book calling DeSantis a dictator. Why would Sharief do this…. To keep Republicans from backing the Senator in this open primary. The ad backfired, however, with Democratic lawmakers criticizing the ad and giving Book a boost with the much-larger Democratic base.
Sharief had another scandal this week when she attended the press conference of James Bush III; an anti-gay Democrat from Miami-Dade. Bush has been under attack from fellow Democrats for being the lone Democratic vote for many conservative bills. This move by Sharief will not help her in Broward County.
I cover this district’s demos and details even more in my substacks.