State House Primaries
Let us now dig into the state house primaries! You can see the partisan breakdown of these districts here.
You can see an interactive version of the districts here.
While the vast majority of primaries are closed to only those registered to the respective party, thirteen districts have open primaries since no opposition candidates filed.
The figures above show the partisan affiliation of all primary voters within these districts in 2020. In some districts, the partisan divide is close, giving the other party the chance to play kingmaker. I delve into the dynamics in each race.
District 1 – Republican Primary
House District 1, which covers Northern Escambia County, just outside the city of Pensacola proper, is home to a rematch from 2020. Incumbent Michelle Salzman is facing off against Mike Hill, who she ousted in a 2020 primary. Hill is a controversial, far-right politician who originally was in the house from 2013-2016, then losing a state senate primary. Hill came back in 2018, winning a primary that relied on dirty tricks and lies. He was disliked by GOP leaders, who ousted him from committees after he chuckled when a constituent called for LGBT people to be put to death like in 3rd world nations. Hill made it clear he believed that is what the Bible called for (it doesn’t). Hill’s primary opponent, Salzman, was privately backed by GOP leaders, who directed cash to her. Hill ran an aggressive and negative campaign against her, using her time as an adult dancer against her. Salzman had been open about her time as a dancer, pointing out it was needed to support her two children when she was young. In the end, voters were sick of Hill’s controversies, and he lost the primary.
Now, in a district largely the same from 2020, Hill is challenging Salzman for the seat. GOP leaders are remaining firmly in Salzman’s camp. Hill has focused his campaign on pushing to repeal red flag laws, ban all abortion, and other far-right policies. He jumped in the race late, and has only raised $40,000. Salzman, meanwhile, sits on $230,000. She has also raised $150,000 via a political committee.
While the 2020 primary was close, Salzman is now an incumbent with no reason for GOP voters to reject here. She should vanquish Hill, hopefully by enough that he goes away for good.
District 2 – Republican Primary
State House District 2 cover the south end of Escambia County and a bit of Santa Rosa. The Trump +13 district has incumbent Alex Andrade facing off against two primary foes. Andrade, a far-right lawmaker seen as a likely successor to Matt Gaetz, has two underfunded primary opponents. Candidates Jordan Karr and Greg Litton have not cracked $10,000 in fundraising, and both talk about the same issues Andrade does. Andrade faced off in a more contentious and expensive primary in 2020 and came out on top. There is little reason to think the incumbent won’t win this time.
District 3 – Republican Primary
Covering most of Santa Rosa and northern Okaloosa County, House District 3 has two Republicans running to replacing retiring Jayer Williamson. The district backed Trump with 74% of the vote. Mariya Calkins, a former aid to the far-right ex-rep Mike Hill, has raised $91,000 and loaned another $70,000. Joel Rudman, a doctor, has raised $120,000 and loaned another $80,000. Both are running as steadfast right-wing candidates. The most intrigue comes from Matt Gaetz backing Calkins while the former FL-01 Congressman, Jeff Miller, is backing Rudman.
District 5 – OPEN Republican Primary
A three-way primary in underway for the open HD5, which covers Walton, Washington, Holmes, Jackson, and Calhoun counties. Formerly a land of the old Dixiecrats, this is now a steadfast Republican area. Since only Republicans filed for the seat, the primary is open to all voters; though Republicans will make up 65%+ of the electorate. Walton County pharmacy owner, Shane Abbott, has racked up the most endorsements, including that of outgoing rep Brad Drake. Abbott has raised over $300,000 in the race so far. Vance Coley, a Republican activist and operative, has raised $88,000 via his official committee and another $25,000 through a committee. Clint Pate, a Jackson County commissioner elected in 2014 – the first time Republicans won seats on the board, has taken in $36,000. Considering Abbott’s strong backing, and Coley and Pate both hailing from the same county, Abbot is a strong frontrunner for the primary.
District 6 – OPEN Republican Primary
House District 6 is Bay County – simple as that. Thanks to population being in the range, Bay County was able to remain entirely whole (the old HD6 was most of Bay County, so little has changed). The seat has an open GOP primary for the seat; with all voters able to cast ballots due to the lack of DEM or NPA candidates; that said Republicans will dominate the vote. The clear frontrunner is Bay Commissioner Griff Griffitts, who has raised over $300,000 and has a litany of local endorsements. His opponent is Brian Clowdus, a fascinating candidate to say the least. Clowdus moved to Bay County in 2020. Before them, he worked in the Atlanta theater scene, where he drew praise for the plays he put on. However, as his production was accused of racism, and he generated controversy during the BLM protests, he went far into MAGA culture; volunteering with “Gays for Trump” and claiming to have knocked on thousands of doors during the 2020 election. His whole saga is well-covered here. Clowdus has raised $75,000. While his internet presence is strong, the fact is he’s an outsider running against a prominent county commissioner. Polls show Griffitts crushing Clowdus by 40 points.
District 8 – Democratic Primary
House District 8 is a majority-black district that covers Gadsden County, Florida’s only majority-black county, and southside Tallahassee. The district is open due to Ramon Alexander forgoing re-election and has four candidates running in the Democratic primary. A fifth candidate, Sharon Lettman-Hicks, dropped out after being charged in the Andrew Gillum corruption scandal. Here are the four candidates.
- Gallop Franklin – A pharmacist, FAMU professor, and close ally of Alexander. He’s raised $90,000 and loaned another $20,000.
- Gregory James – A Senior Pastor at Life Church International. He’s raised $32,000 and loaned another $10,000.
- Hubert Brown – An attorney. He’s raised $97,000 and loaned another $24,000.
- Marie Rattigan – A FAMU graduate and young activist. She’s raised $9,000.
Notably, all four candidates hail from Tallahassee. Past primaries have pitted Gadsden and Tallahassee against each-other, but Tallahassee does control the primary. All candidates would be reliable Democratic votes. There is little policy difference, with Rattigan, considered the most left-leaning candidate. The late exit of Alexander has made the primary a mad dash from candidates to make themselves known to voters. The campaigns were rocked when anti-gay text messages showed up a few weeks ago; insinuating Franklin was gay and had a secret lover. There is no evidence of this, and of course is a sad attempt to play on lingering homophobia. It sucks.
The winner is a lock for November in this Biden +49 district.
District 13 – Democratic Primary
In House District 13, a majority-black district in the heart of Jacksonville, Incumbent Angie Nixon is running for re-election. Nixon was originally elected to HD14, defeating controversial, and batshit crazy, Democrat Kim Daniels. (More on her in the HD14 primary – but read this substack I did breaking her saga down).
Nixon has been a steadfast progressive Democrat for her two years in the chamber. She was the leader of a sit-in that took place as Florida passed its racially gerrymandered Congressional map. The state house redistricting put her in the newly-configured HD13. She has drawn opposition from Delaine Smith, an ally of Daniels. Smith’s social media posts have been used in a mailer by Nixon, showing Smith backing conservative causes and candidates – including supporting Trump nominating Amy Coney Barrett for SCOTUS. Smith has raised little cash, and self-funded with a $12,000 loan. Nixon has taken in over $70,000. Considering her 2020 win, and the fact the new areas Nixon will gain are less likely to back a conservative democrat, Nixon should be secured for re-nomination.
District 14 – Democratic Primary
House District 14, a majority-black district located in Jacksonville, his home to a four-way Democratic primary. However, the race is largely viewed as a fight between two candidates.
- Kim Daniels, a former state Representative, who lost re-nomination in 2020. Daniels, who I dubbed “The Worst Democrat in Florida” in 2018, is a conservative and corrupt Democrats. She claims to be a prophet, runs a scam-of-a-church, and has been under ethics investigations for multiple issues. She has been in and out of political office since 2011; maintaining a base in the conservative Baptist wing of the Jacksonville black community. Again, this is an insane woman who has claimed God warned her about a hurricane and is glad her ancestors were enslaved. In the legislature, she often sided with Republicans. She’s only raised $20,000 but loaned another $85,000.
- Garrett Dennis, a current member of the Jacksonville City Council. Dennis is the choice of establishment Democrats in the race. He’s raised $60,000 through his official account and over $80,000 via a political committee.
- Mincy Pollock, businessman and civic leader. Ran for city council in 2015. He has the backing of business leaders in the city. He’s raised over $60,000.
- Iris Hinton, community activist. She’s raised under $2,000.
The race is very likely to be won by either Daniels or Dennis. Like the Senate District 5 primary, this primary is a clash between the right and left of the Democratic Party. Unions and liberal groups have lined up for Dennis. Daniels, meanwhile, has outside aid from GOP-link political committees. While Daniels 2020 shows she is losing support, the worry among Democratic leaders is Daniels winning a plurality. While Pollock is unlikely to win, where his votes come could decide this primary.
District 15 – Republican Primary
House District 15 covers all of Nassau county and northern/western portions of Duval County. Two Republicans are vying for this seat. The frontrunner is Duval GOP Chair Dean Black, who has racked up major endorsements and has raised over $130,000 – loaning his campaign another $100,000. Emily Nunez, a veteran, is the anti-establishment candidate. She has support from far-right figures like Anthony Sabatini and Michael Flynn. Nunez has lagged in fundraising, bringing in around $60,000 via her official account and another committee. Both candidates are running as steadfast conservatives.
District 16 – Republican Primary
The GOP primary for House District 16, which largely covers eastern Duval, namely the beach communities, is becoming an expensive affair. Three candidates are running for this Trump +15 seat: Jacksonville Beach Commissioner Chet Stokes, former house member Lake Ray, and first-time candidate Kiyan Michael – who served on the Black Voices for Trump board.
Stokes has brought in the most money by far. A political committee he runs has raised $100,000. His official campaign account has taken in $160,000 – and he has loaned his campaign $250,000 more. Ray, meanwhile, has raised $140,000 in his official committee, loaned $50,000 more, and has a political committee with $120,000 more.
A controversy that has begun to emerge revolves around a decade-old arrest warrant being out for Stokes (steaming from an Arizona charge of having alcohol while being a minor) – and questions about him exaggerating his education. Stokes claimed he graduated from Auburn University, but in reality only attended. Ray has not been free of controversy himself. He recently parted ways with his consulting team (never great this late in) and got some awkward headlines when his estranged sister contributed to Kiyan Michael. Ray has also been subject to questions about how he steered office funds to pay rent for a building he owned back when he was a Representative. Ron DeSantis has gotten involved in this primary, supporting Michael and giving her political committee $50,000. Michael has only raised $25,000 through her official committee. That said, the DeSantis backing and money, coupled with Ray and Stokes’ controversies, gives Michael a real chance to win despite being outspent.
District 17 – Republican Primary
Covering Southeast Duval County, House District 17 has two candidates fighting in the GOP primary for this Trump +7 seat. The race is creating a divide in the Jacksonville GOP. Mayor Lenny Curry, and other establishment figures, are backing prosecutor Jessica Baker; the wife of Tim Baker, who guided Curry’s rise to Mayor in 2015. Baker has raised $300,000 via her official campaign, with another $200,000 in a political committee. Her opponent is Christina Meredith, a member of the FL national guard, and an author who has written about her experience with child abuse. Meredith has generated support from anti-establishment figures in the area along with those outside the Curry orbit. She has only raised $31,000 in her formal committee, but has another $80,000 in a PC.
District 20 – OPEN Republican Primary
The new configuration of House District 20 is all of Putnam County; with parts of St Johns, Clay, and Marion. It is a successor to the current HD19. GOP Incumbent Bobby Payne is running for re-election and has a primary from Luis Miguel. Since no other candidates filed, this race is open to all voters. However, it is not much of a race. Payne is widely viewed as favored to win, raising over $100,000 while Miguel has only taken in $4,000. Miguel was recently suspended from twitter for advocating to make it legal to ATTACK FBI AGENTS! A far-right reaction to the Mar-a-Lago search warrant we have seen floated online.
District 22 – Democrat and Republican Primary
House District 21 links parts of Gainesville with the rural counties of Levy and Gilchrist. It is a evenly divided swing district; linking the blue Gainesville suburbs to the deep red rurals.
In the Republican Primary, Incumbent Chuck Clemons has an underfunded primary challenge from Ty Appiah. While Clemons hails from the Alachua base of the district, Appiah comes from rural Levy County. Appiah has raised $13,000 while Clemons has raised $218,000. Appiah most notably tried to run for Gainesville commission in 2021, but missed the filing deadline. Clemons should easily hold the primary, but may underperform in the rural counties eager to control the seat.
In the Democratic primary, two former candidates are running for office. Brandon Peters, an attorney, who ran in the Democratic primary for Congressional District 2 in 2018 (losing to former Leon Commissioner Bob Rackleff), is running. While Peters lost the primary, he did well in the rural counties overlapping both districts.
Peters has raised $100,000, a healthy sum, and many view him as the best option for the party due to his home base being in Levy County. The hope is Peters can hold decent margins in the rural counties. His primary opponent is Olysha Magruder, a Gainesville educator, ran for State Senate in 2018. During her primary for SD8, where she was facing off against DEM favorite Kayser Enneking, Magruder got help from GOP-funded dark-money organizations that wanted to weaken Enneking. Magruder denounced the actions. She would lose the primary in the end. Look more into that race and GOP dark-money shenanigans in the general election here and here.
Geographically, Magruder is in the dem-heavy portion of the district. Peters will need to win some of the city to advance (otherwise he could wind up in a similar situation he had with Congress, winning more land than votes). –
District 23 – OPEN Republican Primary
Incumbent State Rep Ralph Massullo is running in the primary he didn’t want to. Originally, Rep Massullo was running for the State Senate – destined for an expensive primary against fellow Rep Blaise Ingoglia. Massullo was the GOP Senate leadership favorite, but the primary was blown up when DeSantis came out for Ingoglia, and convinced/pressured Massullo to run for re-election to the house. Many of the candidates running to succeed Massullo for the house seat dropped out and backed the incumbent. Massullo still has two GOP opponents for this district, which is based in Citrus County – while including parts of Marion. Tod Cloud and Paul Reinhardt have filed for the seat as well. While Massullo could be theoretically vulnerable to a “this is his second choice” backlash – his backing from DeSantis for re-election and his opponents lack of resources means Massullo should be set. Cloud, a retireed highway patrol man, has raised $20,000 while Reinhardt has not cracked $5,000. Massullo, meanwhile, has taken in over $200,000. This primary is open to all voters, as no one else filed, but the makeup of the electorate will be overwhelmingly GOP.
District 25 – Republican Primary
A four-way primary is underway for HD25, a seat that is the south half of Lake County. Being vacated by far-right Rep Anthony Sabatini, who is running for Congress; the seat is Trump +12. The frontrunner appears to be businessman Taylor Yarkosky, who has raised $200,000 for the seat and has a batch of endorsements. He has also raised $200,000 more via a political committee. Regionally, Yarkosky is known as “The Sinkhole Guy” – a nod to his business working on sinkhole repair. Yarkosky is also apparently has his eyes on being a future Florida Speaker in 2028-2030, according to Florida Politics. Before that can happen, Yarkosky must best 3 opponents. Liz Cornell has raised $80,000, Matthew Silbernagel has raised $30,000, and Tom Vail has raised less than $10,000. Cornell is the only real threat, but Yarkosky is very likely to emerge from this primary. Keep an eye on his moves over the next few years.
District 29 – Republican Primary
The newly-drawn HD29 sits in the west end of Volusia, covering DeLand and Deltona. The seat is home to the lone member vs member primary of the Florida redistricting cycle. State Reps Webster Barnaby and Elizabeth Fetterhoff opted to challenge each-other instead of someone moving to a new district.
In fact, almost 20 incumbents were paired in redistricting. However, all but this race saw someone move or retire. Both candidates have been trading barbs on the campaign trail. Barnaby has been attacked over a PPP loan, while Fetterhoff has been accused of directing campaign money to her business.
Barnaby has raised $160,000 with his main account, and another $30,000 via a political committee. Fetterhoff has raised $140,000 and taken in another $70,000 with her PC.
District 30 – Republican Primary
House District 30 straddles between Southern Volusia County and Northern Brevard County. This divide is reflected in the GOP primary being held for this solid GOP district. The race is between Volusia’s Chase Tramont, a City Commissioner for Port Orange, and Brevard’s Robyn Hattaway, a commissioner for the Canaveral Port Authority special district. Both are conservatives, with the primary being more a contrast in style vs issues. Hattaway has been critiqued by Tramont for not living in the district (she lives just outside it) – but state law does allow her to be a resident by the time of the general election. Brevard County is eager for another state rep as part of their delegation. Perhaps the most notable difference between the two is religion. Though both consider themselves Conservative Christians, Hattaway maintains she believes in the separation of church and state. Tramont, a practicing minister, insists the separation is not part of the constitution. Hattaway has raised almost $80,000 while Tramont has almost $200,000. The winner will face write-in Vic Baker, who is ALSO the Volusia GOP State committeeman – a clear effort to “close” the primary to just Republicans. Expect Baker to “drop out” once the primary is over.
District 34 – Republican Primary
House District 34 covers Indian River County and a portion of southern Brevard. This Trump +22 district has two republicans running: Vero Beach Mayor Robert Brackett and veteran Karen Hiltz. The race is a contrast between a current elected official and longtime GOP activist, but the race has remained, at least on the surface, fairly cordial. Brackett has raised $150,000 while Hiltz has raised $30,000 and loaned her campaign another $80,000.
District 35 – Democrat and Republican Primary
Covering eastern Osceola, and moving into eastern Orange County, House District 35 is a Biden +5 seat. The district is plurality white, with a 30% Hispanic share. While the seat is geographically dominated by Osceola, 80% of the vote in 2020 came from Orange. Republican incumbent Fred Hawkins, initially elected to the GOP-leaning HD42 (which covered parts of Osceola and Polk), is running for re-election here. Both parties have primaries.
In the GOP primary, Hawkins, who was a Osceola commissioner before his 2020 state house election, is likely favored. However, Hawkins continues to be dogged by a 2020 arrest for impersonating a sheriff’s officer as he tried to get into a homeowners association meeting. Hawkins was suspended from the county commission by Governor DeSantis at the time, even as he claimed his arrested was politically motivated. Hawkins eventually did a pre-trial diversion program. He won his GOP primary for HD42 with just 46% of the vote, winning thanks to a divided field. While he won the general election, he got a plurality and under-performed Donald Trump by several points. This time, he has the backing of DeSantis, and is no doubt hoping the arrest is in the rear view. His biggest opponent is Dianna Liebnitzky, an Osceola Republican who got 27% in the 2020 primary against Hawkins. Liebnitzky, who the Orlando Sentinel correctly pegs as an old-school Republican, has focused her campaign on housing and development instead of culture war issues. Liebnitzky has made run-away development a big focus of her campaign. Notably, she almost beat Hawkins in the Osceola portion of HD42 in that 2020 primary. Her biggest issue is a lack of funds, not cracking $10,000. Hawkins has one other opponent, Kenneth Davenport, a former probation officer. Davenport has criticized the fact that Hawkins made it to being a state rep considering his arrest. He hasn’t raised much either, but has loaned his campaign $80,000. Hawkins, meanwhile, has raised $230,000 via his formal campaign and another $50,000 via a political committee. In the end, Hawkins is a very clear frontrunner for the primary. But he also has a general election to deal with.
Three Democrats are running in the primary for the right to taken on what is likely to be Fred Hawkins. Attorney Rishi Bagga is the financial leader with $35,000 raised and another $18,000 in loans. Tom Keen, a veteran and member of the Orlando Police Review Board, has raised $20,000, loaned another $10,000 and has the backing of Senator Victor Torres. He has also raised another $6,000 through a political committee. Real estate agent Tahitiana Munoz-Chaffin has raised just $4,000. All three candidates are way underfunded compared to Hawkins, though that could change once the general election comes around. The primary is likely a battle between Bagga and Keen. On paper, any democrat has a shot against Hawkins in a blue-leaning seat. However, Democrats will need far more money.
District 36 – Democrat and Republican Primary
House District 36 covers Northern Seminole County. Once a steadfast Republican area, this region has moved to the left in the era of Donald Trump. Covering prominent communities like Sanford and Lake Mary, the district voted for Biden by 4 points. Both parties of primaries.
In the Republican Primary, the clear frontrunner is Rachel Plakon, real-estate company owner and wife of outgoing State Rep Scott Plankon. Plakon has the backing of the incoming House leadership and much of the Seminole GOP establishment. Orange County Sheriff deputy Richard Santos, who has taken on more of an anti-establishment bent. He has characterized Plakon’s backing as “dynasty politics” and even taken the state GOP to task for pre-empting local laws. However, he is also very extreme on multiple issues; recently advocating charging women who get abortions with murder. Angelique Perry, a tech expert, rounds out the primary. Perry has managed to stay above the fray as Santos and Plakon clash; instead highlighting conservative issues. Plakon remains a very likely winner of the primary. She has raised over $230,000. Santos has only raised $13,000 while Perry has taken in just $7,000.
The Democratic primary is between data analyst Deborah Poulalion and veteran Rodenay Joseph. Both have raised right around $15,000 each and agree on most issues. Their primary has taken a major back-seat to the GOP primary. Despite the Biden lead in the district, either Democrat will be in a tough spot against a well-funded Rachel Plakon. If Santos manages to be the GOP nominee, much more attention might be given to whoever emerges from the Democratic primary.
District 37 – Republican Primary
House District 37 covers Northeastern Orange and Southeast Seminole Counties. The district is a mixture of suburbs, urban core, and the University of Central Florida. It is a Biden +11 district that is home to Incumbent Democratic State Rep Carlos Guillermo Smith. While Smith is a strong frontrunner to win-reelection, there is still a notable GOP primary for the seat.
The Republican primary to taken on Smith is between businesswoman Susan Plasencia and salesman Kristopher Stark. Plasencia, the sister of outgoing moderate Republican Rep Rene Plasencia, is the clear favorite of Republican leaders; who view her has the best candidate to take on Smith. She has the backing of GOP leadership, who have worked to steer money to her race. She has raised $80,000 – which includes some big checks from the FL GOP, along with $20,000 in in-kind support. Her opponent, Stark, is a MAGA-style anti-establishment candidate. While Plasencia has run as more conservative than her brother, it pales compared to Stark, who is adamant Trump is the legitimate President. Stark has faced questions that he is legally qualified for the office. Laws state you must be a member of the party you are running as for one fill year before qualifying. Records show Stark actually demanded to be removed from the voter rolls in 2021, part of his tirade that the election of 2020 was stolen. Stark re-registered in January of 2022, but this is less than a year before qualifying. A lawsuit would almost surely get him kicked off the ballot, but that hasn’t happened yet. It likely won’t matter. Stark has not even raised $1,000; relying on a $6,000 loan. Plasencia is very likely to win the primary.
District 38 – Democrat and Republican Primary
House District 38 is located in southern Seminole County and is a Biden +7 district. Incumbent Republican David Smith, who won the eastern-based HD28, is running for re-election here. He will be in a tough race in November. Before then, he has two GOP primary opponents to get through. His biggest threat is Drake Wuertz, a far-right challenger who has insisted 2020 was stolen and says the Proud Boys “get a bad rap.” Smith has the backing of the GOP leadership and Governor DeSantis, likely insulating him from an upset. Smith has raised $350,000 through his official committee and another $80,000 via his political committee. Wuertz has only brought in $36,000. A third candidate, Patrick D. Weingart, has just raised $2,000. Smith should win the nomination, and is without a doubt the only candidate that gives Republicans a good shot at holding the seat in November. If Wuertz pulls an upset, the seat will go blue.
Three Democrats are running for this seat, but the heavy frontrunner is Sarah Henry, a non-profit manager. Henry has raised $50,000, far outpacing her two opponents. She has also taken in $15,000 from a political committee. Ed Measom has raised just $5,000 and Dominique Douglas just $3,000. Henry is very likely to emerge from the quiet democratic primary.
District 39 – Republican Primary
Located in northwestern Orange County, including parts of western Seminole, House District 39 is anchored around the city of Apopka. Three Republicans are running for this seat, the winner taking on Democrat Tiffany Hughes in this Biden +1.6 district. Doug Bankson, an Apopoka City Commissioner, is the money frontrunner with $85,000 raised. Right on his heels is Orange GOP Chairman Charles Hart, who has raised $76,000. Randy Ross, who has twice challenged Hart for the Orange GOP Chair position, has raised $10,000 and loaned another $12,000. Ross has cast the closest thing to a bipartisan tone, while both Bankson and Hart have framed themselves as more steadfast conservatives. Whoever wins will be in a contested race with Hughes, who’s raised over $70,000 so far.
District 40 – Democratic Primary
Covering Ocoee and western Orlando, House District 40 is a majority-black seat located in the heart of Orange County. Two Democrats are running for this seat, with the winner being a guaranteed victor in November. LaVon Bracy Davis, the sister of State Senator Randolph Bracy, is the frontrunner for the primary. A lawyer and Director of Programming at Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts, Davis has raised $60,000 and has the backing of prominent Democratic State Reps Anna Eskamani and Carlos Guillermo Smith. Her primary opponent is talent-scout Melissa Myers, who has worked in Ocoee politics, recently as campaign manager for commissioner George Oliver III. She has raised $26,000. The winner is a lock for November in this Biden +42 seat.
District 41 – Democratic Primary
Covering Southwestern Orlando, House District 41 is a plurality-black district that is deep blue and with a super-majority black democratic primary. Incumbent Democrat Travaris McCurdy, who was elected without opposition in 2020, is facing three primary opponents. McCurdy drew headlines along with fellow Democrats engaged in a sit-in on the house floor as the state passed its racial gerrymander of a Congressional map.
McCurdy has raised $41,000 and has the backing of Democratic State Reps Anna Eskamani and Carlos Guillermo Smith; as well as Charlie Crist. Unbelievably, McCurdy’s sit-in has been derided as ‘performance activism’ by his opponents (though they didn’t directly call him out by name).
One of McCurdy’s opponents is former State House member Bruce Antone; who failed at a school board run in 2020 when his residency was questioned. Antone has only raised $10,000, but benefits from name ID. Shaniqua Rose, a nonprofit leader and former Orlando commission candidate, has raised just under $20,000. Pam Powell, a motivational speaker, has brought in $30,000. All four candidates agree on most issues – with housing shortages and gun violence being major points, with differences coming down to who would be the best community representative.
District 42 – Republican Primary
House District 42 is located right in the middle of Orange County. Going from Maitland and down in southern Orlando, the district is a 60%+ white seat surrounded by Hispanic or Black access seats. While the region was originally a swing area, the movement of white suburbs to Democrats have made the district a deep blue, Biden +18 district. Incumbent State Rep Anna Eskamani, a left-wing leader in Florida Democratic politics, is running for re-election here. While Esakamani is a virtual lock to win re-election, two Republicans are engaged in a primary for the right to lose to her. David Dwyer, a public insurance adjuster, and Bonnie Jackson, an attorney, are running as steadfast conservatives. Jackson has raised $30,000 and loaned $10,000; while Dwyer has raised $17,000 and loaned $60,000. Neither have a shot against Eskamani in the fall.
District 43 – Republican Primary
House District 43 is a majority-Hispanic district located in eastern Orange County. A Biden +24 district, Democratic nominee Johanna Lopez, a member of the Orange School board, is a virtual lock to win the district in November. Two Republicans, however, are in a primary to face her. Both Republicans, Christopher Wright and Jay Rodriguez, have raised less than $5,000.
District 44 – OPEN Democratic Primary
House District 44 is a Hispanic-plurality seat located in Southern Orange County. Here is where Incumbent Daisy Morales, who won the old HD48 in 2020 is running for re-election. Morales won her 2020 primary with 40% in a crowded race. The new lines mean she has retained and lost different neighborhoods. While incumbents normally avoid serious primary fights, even as they get new communities with redistricting, Morales has a well-funded challenger. Rita Harris, a former Vice Chair with the Orange County Democratic Primary, filed to run against Morales. What is unique about this inter-party challenge is just how much support Harris has generated. Both candidates have competing endorsements; with many officially openly backing Harris. Harris’ backers range from Charlie Crist, Senator Vic Torres, Amy Mercado, and a large batch of other local Democrats. Harris has led in fundraising as well, raising $44,000 vs the $17,000 to Morales. So why are so many Democrats backing the opponent to an incumbent? Scott Maxwell’s column here really covers it all: Morales has been disengaged from caucus affairs, as questions regarding personal finance, and has voted with Republicans on several issues – including preventing vaccine mandates. Morale’s fundraising is larger a who’s who of special interests; including the utilities and sugar industry, which Morales has sided with on issues. A weird situation is pointed out by the column: Morales just loaned her campaign $50,000, but her own financial disclosure indicate she doesn’t have that much cash to loan. These are the types of issues that make many Democrats eager for a replacement.
Since only Harris and Morales filed for the post, the primary is open to all voters. While the district is a Hispanic-plurality seat, voting power still leans toward white voters. This is truer in the open primary.
The open primary also means 28% will be Republican. This could give Morales aid, as no doubt GOP operatives would prefer Morales to win.
District 45 – Republican Primary
House District 45 is largely a successor to the current HD44. Originally a district anchored in Southwestern Orange County; covering Winter Gardens, Bay Lake, and the many suburbs surrounding Disney World; the area had gone from a lean-GOP area to a Biden +10 district. The seat flipped to Democrats in 2018. Redistricting, however, has shifted the politics of the new HD45. The new district retains much of HD44, but sacrifices its diverse (and heavily Democratic) eastern precincts to the Hispanic-access NEW HD44 to the east. The district then extends further south into Northeastern Osceola. The result is a district that backed Biden by 5.5 points.
With Democratic Incumbent Geraldine Thompson running for state senate, Allie Braswell will be the Democratic nominee; currently sitting at $45,000 raised. Meanwhile, FIVE Republicans are running in a primary.
- Carolina Amesty, the VP of Central Christian University. Has raised $82,000, loaned another $200,000. She also has another $50,000 from a political committee.
- Vennia Francois, a laywer ans former staffer to many prominent GOP lawmakers. She has raised $120,000.
- Bruno Portigliatti, a lawyer and President of Florida Christian University, he has run for the old HD44 before, but did not win the primary. He has raised $200,000, with another $32,000 raised via a political committee.
- Yukong “Mike” Zhao, a businessman and is well known as an opponent of affirmative action in universities; being part of multiple lawsuits on the issue. He also ran for and lost a primary for Congressional District 7 in 2020. He has raised $180,000 and loaned another $100,000.
- Janet Frevola, a retired law enforcement official. She has raised $17,000 and loaned another $6,000.
The race is a mega-money primary, namely between the first four listed candidates. In addition to all this cash, there is third-party money pouring into the race as well; with exact ties difficult to track at times. The race has become incredibly nasty, especially between Portigliatti and Amesty; which recently led to a now-withdrawn lawsuit from Amesty’s fiancé after he was attacked in a mailer. Amesty appears to be the frontrunner, securing the endorsement of former Speaker Richard Corcoran, CFO Jimmy Patronis, and recently the backing of Donald Trump. That said, mailers and ads are running nonstop in the district; many negative. When all is said and done, this will be one of the most expensive house primaries of the cycle.
District 47 – Democratic Primary
House District 47, which covers St Cloud in Osceola County, and small portion of Orange County, is the newest majority-Hispanic house district in the Orlando region. This Biden +13 district is very likely to go Democratic in the fall; and three candidates are running in the party primary. The race has been a low-key affair. Dan Marquith, a former Osceola Sheriff Captain, is the money leader in the race, taking in $46,000. Horng Jeng, an Osceola businessman, has taken in $17,000. Anthony Nieves, who’s raised $4,000 is running as a left-wing grassroots candidate. Marquith is the likely frontrunner, but primaries in Osceola have often produced winners who raised less money than others. How these candidates are doing on the ground with voter outreach could decide this. Whoever wins is heavily favored against Republican Paula Stark, who’s raised just over $20,000.
District 50 – OPEN Republican Primary
House District 50 is anchored around the City of Lakeland. The district, which covers Northwest Polk County, grabs the entirety of the city as well as unincorporated communities. It is home to a fascinating Republican primary. Only two Republicans filed, meaning the primary is open to all voters. While 50% of the likely vote should be Republican, 40% is likely to be registered Democrats. The two Republicans running are Lakeland Commissioner Phillip Walker and Jennifer Canady, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Charles Canady. In 2016, Justice Canady was retained to office.
Jennifer Canady, who runs the RISE Institute at Lakeland Christian School, is the big money leader in the race; brining in $300,000 via her official account and another $70,000 via a political committee. Walker has brought in $80,000 so far in his bid. Both candidates are running as conservatives, and both hold a batch of endorsements, though Canady has secured prominent local backing from prominent conservatives like Sheriff Grady Judd. Walker’s best chance against Canady is that voters get queasy on the possible conflicts around a couple where one is a justice and the other is in the legislature. However, Walker, at least directly, has not directly made any effort (at least that I can find) to make this an issue. Walker, who represents the more minority-heavy portion of Lakeland, and himself is black, likely needs Democrats to cross-over for him. However, as this post from author Bill Townsend lays out, any reason to back Walker, who is conservative, is really based more on a dislike for the Canady’s. Like with other open primaries, there is a real chance opposition party members sit the race out.
District 51 – OPEN Republican Primary
Covering Northern Polk County; including the cities of Auburndale, Haines City, and Polk City; House District 51 is home to an open Republican primary. Incumbent Josie Tomkow is facing a primary from veteran, and 2020 GOP nominee for Congressional District 9, William Olson. Since no other candidates filed, the primary is open to all voters. In 2020, the partisan makeup of primary voters in the district was 43% GOP, 42% DEM. This primary is, in many ways, a general election contest but with two Republicans. However, it is not much of a race. Tompkow has raised almost $200,000 while Olson has only raised a few grand. The race has been characterized locally as one of the quietist races in recent years. Both candidates are running as conservatives, and I venture many Democrats will sit the primary out. The district is Trump +6. Expect Tomkow to easily win.
District 52 – Republican Primary
House District 52 includes all of Sumter County, and a portion of eastern Hernando. That said, make no mistake, this district is the seat of the Villages Retirement Community. If you work in Florida politics, you know the Villages; a massive 55+ retirement community that is known as a major source of retiree Republican votes. The community, which has over 80,000 members, makes up 85% of the GOP primary vote in Sumter County. It will dominate this house district for its entire existence. I covered the strength of the Villages in this guest column for City and State Florida. Two Republicans are running for this seat: John Temple and Rock Daze. Temple, who was the Sumter GOP Chair before he filed to run, has raised $160,000. Daze, a businessman and veteran, has raised $23,000 and loaned another $20,000. While Temple leads in funds, Daze has run an aggressive campaign. Daze is framing his campaign as an anti-establishment push, and recently he secured a big win the Villagers for Trump straw poll. No I do not think a straw poll can be predictive, but I note it just in case. The fact is, Temple’s money is important, but the Villages can be one with a strong grassroots campaign. Going to events and talking to residents, and getting word of mouth, can move a lot of people in retiree committees. That said, it is not like the Villages is a universal pro-Trump crowd. In fact, the community swung to the left in 2020.
Temple is also viewed as the preferred candidate of the developer who created the Villages. So, it isn’t like Temple doesn’t have strong representation in the community. Temple technically doesn’t live in the Villages; but is a resident of Wildwood. Granted he lives right on the border (and that border is actually pretty fuzzy and is changing with time) of the retirement community. As best I know, that isn’t really impacting the race. Whoever wins this will be a lock for November in this Trump +36 district.
District 53 – Republican Primary
House District 53 is the western/coastal half of Hernando County and part of Northwest Pasco. Two Republicans are running here, though County Commissioner Jeff Holcomb is the clear frontrunner. Holcomb, who has been supported by voters before, has raised $150,000. His opponent, Anthony Kocovic, has raised just $7,000. We should expect Holcomb to easily transition into this Trump +30 district.
District 55 – Republican Primary
House District 55 covers central Pasco County and is being left open by outgoing representative Ardian Zika. While three Republics are filed for this Trump +21 seat, there is a clear frontrunner in the primary. Businessman Kevin Steele has the backing of Zika, as well as a large batch of local Republicans; from Senator Wilton Simpson to Sheriff Chris Nocco. Steele has raised $160,000 and loaned another $250,000. He could afford more, as he has a net worth of $400 million dollars! His opponents have not been able to keep up with Steele’s well-funded campaign. Candidate Gabriel Papadopoulos has raised just $30,000; half of that being loans. Brad Sollberger has largely relied on a couple thousand dollars in loans.
District 56 – OPEN Republican Primary
House District 56 is the successor to the current HD36, a district that covers the coast of Pasco County; including the cities of Port Richey and New Port Richey. Incumbent Amber Mariano announced she would not run again, and three Republicans are filed for the seat. Since no other candidates filed, the GOP primary will be open to all voters. Brad Yeager is the clear establishment candidate; getting the backing of Sheriff Chris Nocco, Senator Wilton Simpson, and Tax Collector Mike Fasano (who used to represent the area in the house). Yeager has raised $150,000 since his May start. He has also gotten the backing of the FL Chamber of Commerce. His biggest opponent is Scott Moore, who has raised just $10,000 but loaned his campaign $145,000. Moore has framed himself as a steadfast conservative. Far-right blogs are adamant against Yeager; specifically calling out the Fasano support. Fasano, a titan in Pasco politics, is one of the few classic moderate Republicans left, endorsing Biden in 2020 and Crist in 2014. Moore is immune from right-wing critique. Voter records from his time as a Maryland resident showed he left the GOP in the fall of 2020 and when he moved to Florida, registered as an independent till late 2018. Moore has aimed to frame this as leaving an anti-Trump party. A third candidate, Jayden Cocuzza, is also running as an anti-establishment candidate, though he has only raised $20,000. The primary is likely to come down to Moore vs Yeager in an establishment vs anti-establishment contest. The democratic block, which could make up 38% of the primary vs the GOP’s 46%, could make a difference if they take their cues from Fasano.
District 58 – Democrat and Republican Primary
A seat that is essentially the city of Clearwater, House District 58, located in northern Pinellas County, has a three-way GOP primary. The two frontrunner are Jason Holloway and Kim Berfield. Holloway is a former Democrat, who worked for Democratic State House member and later Senator Darryl Rouson. After he switched parties in 2019, DeSantis appointed him to Florida’s Blockchain Task Force. Yep, Holloway is a crypto-bro, and he is accepting crypto donations. Holloway’s Democratic past, however, is the subject of attack from Berfield, who was a GOP state representative from 2000-2006. The primary has divided the local GOP establishment. Befrield has the backing of outgoing Rep Chris Latvala, who has been hitting Holloway on his Democratic past. Befrield has the support of Republican officials like Senator Ed Hooper and Sheriff Bob Gualtieri. Holloway, however, has GOP backing of his own, including RPOF Chairman Sen. Joe Gruters. Holloway has raised $120,000 via his official account and another $120,000 via a political committee. Berfield lags behind with $90,000 raised. A third candidate, Jim Vricos, has raised around $15,000. The question for this primary comes down to, can Holloway spend enough to override GOP voter concerns about his recent party switch.
On the Democratic side, two candidates are running. Joseph Saportas, who lost a race for Tax Collector in 2020, and Bernard Fensterwald, who lost a previous run for state house. The primary will very likely go to Fensterwald, who has raised $30,000 vs Saportas’ $1,000.
This district backed Trump by 6 points. It is unlikely to be a major focus in November.
District 59 – Republican Primary
In House District 58, which covers the city of Largo in central Pinellas County, a nasty GOP primary is going on. Three Republicans have filed for the open house seat: Berny Jacques, Jennifer Wilson, and Dipak Nadkarni. Wilson is a business lawyer with ties to prominent Republican politicians, including former State Senator Jack Latvala. She has the backing of outgoing Rep Nick DiCeglie and has raised $200,000. Jacques is a former prosecutor and works as a partnership director with Big Brothers and Big Sisters of Tampa Bay. He made a run in 2018 for state house but did not win the primary. He has raised $150,000 through his official committee and another $80,000 via a political committee. Nadkarni, a retired Navy physician, has raised just over $60,000.
The primary has taken a disturbing turn as racially-charged attacks have been leveled at Jacques. First, someone created a YouTube playlist of different rap songs and called it “Fuck Donald Trump” while saying it belonged to Jacques, then a mailer went out pointing this fact out. Jacques, who is black, understandably views this as a race-baiting attack in a GOP primary. Considering the operative involved, Anthony Pedicini, recently made headlines for working to destroy a minority access county commission district in Manatee County. This isn’t the only disgusting racist attack going against Jacques. A mailer has gone out (credit to Florida Politics for image) using his work with the Boys and Girls Club against him.
That mailer is tied to a committee run my operative Michael Millner, who works with Pedicini.
This primary is a disgusting affair. All three candidates are steadfast conservatives. However, the racially-tainted tactics are the clear dominating story out of it.
District 62 – Democratic Primary
House District 62 is a black-access seat that includes portions of St Petersburg in Pinellas County and the Riverview community of Hillsborough County. The district is the successor to the old HD70.
I discussed the saga of creating a black-access district in the Tampa Bay area, as well as my believe that this current drawing is designed to prevent another black-access district in Hillsborough itself. In essence, HD62 should have continued to go from St Pete to Manatee and Sarasota, while a black-opportunity seat in Hillsborough should have been drawn. That did not happen. In either case, this district is a steady black-performing seat. While it is only 40% BVAP, it is over 60% black in a Democratic primary. While registration is nearly evenly divided between the two counties, turnout strength in Pinellas gives the county a near 2-1 advantage.
Three Democrats are running for this seat, and two of them are well-known figures in the area. Incumbent Michele Rayner made history in 2020 when she won the primary for then HD70, making her the first LGBT woman of color elected to the Florida legislature. Rayner is a steadfast liberal in the house. She originally was running for Congressional District 13, however, after the GOP gerrymander cracked St Pete to make the 13th a solidly GOP district, Rayner opted to run for re-election to the house. Her top opponent is former HD70 Representative Wengay Newton; who served as a St Pete councilman and made a failed run for Pinellas Commission in 2020 and failed bid for St Pete Mayor in 2021. Newton is a conservative Democrat who has been one of the Florida GOP’s favorite Democrats. The primary is hence a clash between the liberal Rayner and conservative Newton. Newton has the backing of the FL Chamber of Commerce, and Republicans have recently spent money to support Newton in the primary. Rayner has the backing of most Democrats. Pinellas Commissioner Rene Flowers, who beat Newton in that 2020 Pinellas Commission primary, came out hard for Rayner.
While Rayner and Newton are well known quantities in Pinellas, Hillsborough’s Riverview vote still is critical. A third candidate, Riverview lawyer and veteran Jesse Philippe, is also making a serious play for the primary. Philippe is no doubt hoping to consolidate Hillsborough. His biggest issue is money. He’s only raised $20,000. Newton has raised $35,000. Rayner has brought in $95,000. Rayner is in a stronger position to make inroads in Hillsborough than Newton is.
In the end, I believe Rayner is a much stronger position to win. Newton has failed to win over voters in multiple races now and Philippe is a new face with only modest cash. Rayner could theoretically get hit for the whole “this is your backup race” argument. However, Democratic voters have also seen the GOP gerrymander covered well, and sympathy exists for many Democratic candidates. You can’t really blame someone for not running in a district drawn to ensure they can’t win.
District 65 – Republican Primary
House District 65 is a coast-hugging district in Hillsborough County, covering the Tampa peninsula and the western neighborhoods of the county. The district, formally HD60, has long been a narrow GOP county. However, the new lines actually give Biden a 4-point lead. Democrat Jen McDonald will face one of three Republicans in the general, already raising $130,000. Businesswoman Karen Gonzalez Pittman has raised $170,000. Lawyer Michael Minardi has raised $40,000 and another $15,000 via a political committee. Hillsborough Young Republican leader Jake Hoffman has raised $80,000 and another $15,000 via his political committee. Hoffman and Minardi are both running on fairly moderate platforms (still conservative overall) for the primary. Hoffman has worked to use social media to bring supporters to the polls while his views on issues like felon voting rights have been used against him in mailers. Minardi, who secured the Tampa Bay Times endorsement, has also pushed criminal justice reform and environmental issues. Backing a more moderate Republican would be a smart choice for the GOP in a district Democrats have a strong chance at flipping in November.
District 68 – Republican Primary
House District 68, which covers Northeast Hillsborough, including Plant City, is a Trump +23 district with a GOP primary. Incumbent Lawrence McClure has a primary from Paul Hatfield, though its not much of a race. Hatfield has raised just $2,000 and loaned another $5,000. McClure has raised over $170,000 and there is no indicator he is vulnerable. Except a solid McClure win.
District 69 – Republican Primary
House District 69 goes from the growing Democratic neighborhoods of Riverview and moves east into the deep-red rural Hillsborough communities. The district has been drawn to attempt to oust Democratic Rep Andrew Learned. The seat backed Trump by 2 points. Two Republics are running for the right to take on Learned. However, its not much of a primary. Lawyer Danny Alvarez has raised $160,000 for primary while his opponent, Megan Angel Petty, has raised less than $1,000. We are surely heading for an Alvarez vs Learned general.
District 77 – Republican Primary
Located in the southeast corner of Lee County, House District 78 is dominated by the mega-community of Lehigh Acres. Tiffany Esposito, a local chamber of commerce leader, has brought in $180,000 and is the clear establishment choice; securing the backing of GOP elected officials across the Southwest Coast. She has also raised $60,000 via a political committee. Her opponent is Ford O’Connell, a Fox News personality with ties to the Trump administration. O’Connell has raised $40,000 but also loaned $160,000. The primary comes down to Esposito’s strong establishment support vs O’Connell’s outsider campaign. Whoever wins is a favorite in this Trump +13 district.
District 87 – Republican Primary
House District 87, which is based in Northern Palm Beach County, covers Palm Beach Gardens and moves down the coast. The district narrowly voted for Trump by less than 1%. HD89 incumbent Republican Mike Caruso, who is must move into this district after redistricting altered his current seat, faces a primary from a far-right opponent. Real estate agent Jane Justice is challenging Caruso, accusing him of not being sufficiently republican. One of the big issues stems from Caruso being censured by the Palm Beach Republican Party for endorsing a Democrat in another race. The endorsement, for Katherine Waldron in HD86, is only for the Democratic primary. Caruso has defended the endorsement, pointing to working with Waldron on past issues. Justice frames herself as an ultra-MAGA candidate, and is apparently so unhinged that she was derided by other Trump-supporting Republicans. Justice actually has Roger Stone cutting a video for her. Caruso has raised $160,000 for his re-election while Justice as taken in $20,000 and loaned another $10,000. Caruso should be favored here. While the GOP primaries are becoming more extreme, Justice does not have the resources or temperament for this upper-income suburban district. Caruso is the type of Republican you get in these districts. If he somehow loses, even with being unknown by most voters due to redistricting, it’s a sad situation.
District 91 – Republican Primary
House District 91 is located in Southeast Palm Beach County, dominated by Boca Raton. Like much of Palm Beach, it is home to many retirees. It is a Biden +4 seat that is expected to be competitive in the fall. While Boca Councilman Andy Thomson will be the Democratic nominee, two Republicans are fighting to take him on. The frontrunner is Peggy Gossett-Seidman, a commissioner for Highland Beach; and a former writer for Burt Reynolds! Her primary opponent is Delray Beach resident Christina DuCasse. However, while DuCasse has only raised $10,000; Siedman has raised over $60,000 and loaned another $200,000. Seidman has the backing of the House GOP leadership, who see her as the best candidate for the seat.
District 92 – Democratic Primary
House District 92 covers the Southwest Palm Beach urban corridor; including unincorporated communities that are broadly part of the Boca Raton, Delray Beach, and Boyton Beach metro zones. It is home to many Jewish retirees; and home to the famous Kings Point 55+ retiree community. Incumbent Kelly Skidmore is running for re-election here. She represented part of this district already but has seen many changes via redistricting. However, Skidmore has represented much of the area from previous stints in the legislature. She faces a primary from Hasan Zahangir, who owns ‘Yogurt on Yamato.’ Skidmore has dominated in endorsements; locking up establishment support. Skidmore is viewed as the overwhelming favorite in the primary; avoiding a more serious threat from Wendy Slosberg; the sister of outgoing Rep Emily Slosberg. While Zahangir has raised a decent $30,000, Skidmore is near $100,000 raised and holds much higher name ID. Skidmore should win this easily, and will be a lock in the general in this Biden +20 district.
District 93 – Democratic Primary
House District 93’s heart is Wellington, a city in central Palm Beach County. This Biden +10 district includes the city as well as portions of Greenacers and Boyton Beach. Four Democrats are running for this open district. The money leaders is Katherine Waldron, a Port of Palm Beach Commissioner (a special district in part of the county). She has raised $60,000 and loaner herself another $62,000. Tom Valeo, a Wellington School District employee and former employee of outgoing rep Matt Willhite, recently secured the Palm Beach Post endorsement; however he’s only raised $20,000. Shelly Lariz Albright, the director of Children and Youth Ministries for her church in Wellington, has raised $25,000 and loaned another $20,000. Seth Densen, a social worker, has raised under $10,000. Overall, this race is hard to handicap. Waldron leads in money, and likely has a modest advantage. How candidate ground games go could lead Albright or Valeo pulling off victories.
District 97 – OPEN Democratic Primary
Three Democrats are vying for this majority-black district located in the heart of Central Broward. The seat covers Lauderhill, Lauderdale Lakes, and Tamarac. It has a sizeable Caribbean population. Since only Democrats filed for the office, the primary is open to all voters. However, the district is so democratic that only a handful of GOP votes are likely, and the primary remains heavily black.
The money leader is Saima Farooqui, head of the Broward ACLU, who’s raised $36,000. Farooqui has run for the state house before, challenging Kristin Jacobs in 2018 and Christine Hunschofsky in 2020 for the then-North Broward district. Farooqui secured the Sun Sentinel endorsement and would be the first Muslim woman elected if she wins. Lawyer Kelly Scurry has raised $25,000 and notably has support of the area’s state Senator Rosalind Osgood. Scurry’s uncle was George Allen, who was a major driver in the integration of Broward schools. The final candidate is Lisa Dunkley, an army veteran who has raised $7,000. Dunkley has also been Chair of Caribbean American Veterans Association and hails from Jamaica; something that could help her with the Caribbean population in the district. Of note, outgoing State Rep Anika Omphroy is Caribbean; and primaries have fallen on Caribbean and non-Caribbean black lines in the past.
District 98 – OPEN Democratic Primary
House District 98 is a black-access district located in North Broward. The district includes portions of Deerfield Beach, Pompano Beach, and Oakland Park. It links together historic black neighborhoods as well as prominent retiree communities; namely Century Village and Palm Aire. While the district is plurality black in most Democratic primaries, since only Democrats filed for office, the primary will be open to all voters; resulting in a plurality white electorate. Both candidates, however, hail from the historic black communities in Northwest Pompano.
Incumbent Patricia Hawkins is running for re-election here; and while the district saw some border changes, it largely retains the same shape as the old HD92 that Hawkins represents. Originally, Hawkins was going to run for state senate. However, redistricting means she would have been forced to primary an incumbent Democrat. Hawkins, citing requests from the party, agreed to drop a senate bid and instead run for re-election to the house. Hawkin’s lone primary challenger is Carmen Jones; a multi-time candidate. Jones originally run for Broward Commission in 2014, coming in 3rd but doing well in the Northwest Pompano community that overlaps with the district. Incidentally, I was the data and field director for lawyer Mark Bogen, the winner of the campaign. Yes, this is me bragging.
Jones made several runs for Pompano commission, but never managed to win a city council seat. It is hard to envision her being able to make a serious play for HD98 against someone who has won the seat several times. Jones is unlikely to have strong support in the retiree areas (she didn’t do well there in the county race) and she and Hawkins both hail from the one area Jones did well in. While Hawkins has only raised $32,000, that is many times higher than Jones’ $4,000.
District 99 – OPEN Democratic Primary
House District 99, a majority-black district located in the heart of central Broward, right next to HD97, covers parts of Ft Lauderdale, Plantation, and Wilton Manors. The seat is heavily black with a modest Caribbean population. The district’s Northeast end is Wilton Manors, a historic LGBT community in Florida. Two Democrats have filed for the post; Elijah Manley and Incumbent Daryl Campbell. Since no other candidates filed, the primary will be open to all voters.
This is a type of rematch from earlier in the year. When incumbent Rep Bobby DuBose left office to run for Congress, a special election was held for the seat. Campbell, who is a former aid to DuBose, won that primary with a plurality.
Manley, who has run for school board and state representative before the special, is challenge Campbell again. Manley, who is a member of the LGBT community and comes from the left of the party, as insisted that Campbell ran an anti-gay whisper campaign in the special. Campbell has denied this, and points to his opposition to the infamous “Don’t Say Gay Bill.” Whether Campbell engaged in activity or not, it is not hard to imagine Manley experienced discrimination or whispers as this has come up in primaries like SD34 and HD8 (see those write-ups). As the Sun Sentinel points out, the difference in candidates is largely a matter of style. Both will be voting the same almost on all issues. Campbell is a more reserved politician, while Manley, who has been open about the struggles in his childhood with homeless and mental health, is more outspoken. Both candidates are likely to have critical bases; with Manley strong in Wilton Manors, and Campbell, who is Jamaican, likely to outperform in the Caribbean community. Manley has little cash, under $10,000, but is a fierce grassroots campaigner. Campbell has raised over $50,000.
District 101 – Democratic Primary
The new HD101 is anchored in Southeast Broward County, south of 595. The district includes parts of Hallandale, Hollywood, Dania Beach, and eastern Davie. An expensive 3-way Democratic primary is ongoing for this Biden +14 seat. Property Insurance Lawyer Hillary Cassel is the financial frontrunner, raising $230,000 in her official account, with another $50,000 in loans. In addition, a political committee for her campaign has another $200,000. Cassel has support from prominent local Democrats like Evan Jenne and Senator Jason Pizzo. However, she has come under fire for the political committee she founded, Florida Policyholders Cooperative, which is funded by attorneys who work in property insurance, giving to both Democrats and Republicans. Granted this is the routine cost of doing business in this totally not-corrupt state.
Candidate Todd Delmay is a well-known civil rights advocate from the area. Delmay and his husband were one of the gay couples who sued to overturn the state’s 2008 Same Sex Marriage ban; a suit that was ultimately successful. Delmay has been a major LGBT advocate, recently testifying against the “Don’t Say Gay Bill’ in Florida. His network of support have allowed him to raise $130,000. Delmary secured the Sun Sentinel endorsement.
The final candidate, Clay Miller, is an aid to County Commission Beam Furr. A longtime Democratic activist, who a tenure as Broward Young Democrats Chair, Miller has managed to raised $80,000.
Honestly, any of these candidates have a shot at winning. Cassel leads in money, but both her opponents have enough cash to make themselves known to voters. With no candidates previously elected, this is a true wild card (at least from outside observation).
District 105 – Democratic Primary
House District 105 is a black-access district located in south Broward County; covering the black communities of Hollywood and the cities of West Park and Pembroke Park. Incumbent Marie Woodson was elected in a 3 way primary for a similar-looking district in 2020.
This go-around, Woodson has one Democratic opponent. However, she should be secured for re-nomination. Challenger Dr. Imran Siddiqui has loaned his campaign $4,000, but otherwise raised no money. Siddiqui ran in the special election for the 20th Congressional district last year, coming in last with under 1% of the vote. Woodson has raised over $80,000 and there is no sign of a real campaign from her challenger.
District 106 – Democrat and Republican Primary
Both parties have primaries for HD106, which covers the northeast towns of Miami-Dade. This district is a mixture of white, Hispanic, and Jewish communities, with a large coastal condo community. The district voted for Biden by 10 points, but this was down from Gillum’s 22% margin; a swing fueled by Biden falling with both Hispanic and Jewish voters.
The democratic primary for HD106 is largely a formality. Bay Harbor Islands councilman Jordan Leonard is the clear frontrunner for the democratic primary. He has raised $180,000 via his main campaign account, with another $180,000 via a political committee. Leonard has the backing of outgoing State Rep Joe Geller. His opponent, Gustavo Ortega, is a teacher for autistic students, and is running a well-regarded grassroots campaign. However, Ortega has only managed to raise $5,000, and is a first-time candidate against someone with previous elections and support. Leonard is very likely to emerge the nominee.
The Republican primary for 106 is much more complicated. While three candidates are running, Douglas John Ross has not even raised $1,000, and is not going to be the nominee. The voters must chose between Lynn Su Sutjapojnukul and Fabian Basabe. Sutjapojnukul, a Thai immigrant who has been heavily involved in civil issues in the district over years, would, on the surface, be the best candidate. But as the Miami Herald rightly points out, she is unqualified for office because she refuses to the denounce the Proud Boys; which have begun to infiltrate the Miami-Dade GOP. She has blown off Proud Boys critique, saying “just about bringing masculinity back to families.” So what about Basabe? Basabe is best known for his time on reality TV, and as a socialite for much of the 21st century. He’s been dubbed the “male Paris Hilton.” Now a stay-at-home Dad, Basabe tried to run for Miami Beach commission in 2021, but didn’t meat the residency requirement. The Herald, while not thrilled with his vague answers on issues, certainly prefers him for his willingness to call out the Proud Boys. Basabe has loaned his campaign $250,000; which is the bulk of the campaign’s war chest. Sutjapojnukul has only raised $27,000; loaning another $30,000.
Whoever wins the GOP primary is likely to be facing off against Leonard in a district Biden won by 10%. That said, while Democrats appear to have a strong candidate, the GOP is left with nothing but weaker options.
District 107 – Democratic Primary
Located in North Miami-Dade, HD107 is a majority-black seat that includes Caribbean and non-Carribean black populations. The district is anchored in the cities of North Miami Beach and Miami Gardens. Incumbent Christopher Benjamin, who became the first Muslim American elected to the Florida legislature when he won his 2020 race, has raised $40,000. His challenger, Wancito Francius, has raised just $17,000 but loaned his campaign almost $50,000. A North Miami businessman, Francius immigrated from Haiti in 2005. Francius has hit Benjamin, claiming he isn’t engaged enough, but Francius is also taking barbs for being more socially conservative on issues like abortion. In 2019, Francius ran for a North Miami city council seat, but came in 3rd.
District 108 – OPEN Democratic Primary
The democratic primary for HD108 is a race between a respected incumbent and two infamous challengers. A majority-black seat located in Northern Miami-Dade, the district includes the cities of North Miami, Miami Shores, and the black neighborhoods of the City of Miami. The district is home to both Caribbean and non-Caribbean black voters. Since the primary is open to all voters, with only democrats filed for the seat, the primary will have a sizable Hispanic and white vote; with black voters making up a narrow majority.
Incumbent Dottie Joseph, a lawyer with Haitian roots, ousted incumbent Roy Hardemon in 2018. Hardemon, who’d only been with 22% of the vote in a very divided 2016 primary, is the uncle of Miami-Dade Commissioner Keon Hardemon. He challenged Joseph in 2020 but was easily defeated. He is running again this time. The district now is largely like the old seat, and there is little reason to think Hardemon has any new support. He has also only raised a few thousand dollars.
Joseph’s real primary threat is from Michael Etienne, the former Clerk of North Miami. While he’s raised no money, Etienne loaned his campaign $60,000. Almost all of Etienne’s money has gone into Spanish and Creole (Haitian) radio. Haitian radio advertising is a major campaign tool in that region of the county. Etienne has past scandals, however, which are likely to hurt him. He plead no contest to an ethics complaint that he spent city money on a trip to Mount Rushmore while he was at a business conference. In 2019, Etienne would challenge the incumbent Mayor of North Miami, but lost 2-1.
Joseph, who is well liked in the democratic caucus and has the backing of Emily’s List and the Miami Herald, and was talked up as a possible Attorney General candidate, has raised a solid $120,000 and has twice won the support of voters in the area. It is more likely than not Joseph will emerge the winner against these controversial challengers.
District 109 – OPEN Democratic Primary
I covered the race for House District 109 in a recent substack post, a black-performing seat located in northeast Miami-Dade County. Incumbent James Bush III, who won a 2018 primary but was unopposed in 2020, has a serious primary threat from attorney Ashley Gantt.
Bush is the most conservative Democrat in the state house, voting with the GOP on multiple issues.
- Only Democrat to vote for the anti-LGBT “Don’t Say Gay” Bill
- Only Democrat to vote for 15 week abortion ban, which didn’t have rape/incest exemptions
- Only Democrat to vote to ban transgender students from playing in sports
- Only Democrat to vote to allow conceal carry guns into Churches
- Only Democrat to vote against allowing smoke of marijuana for medical purposes (this was a bill to regulate the industry after the 2016 Amendment to legalize medical marijuana passed)
- One of two Democrats to lower the corporate income tax
Bush’s votes, as well as his common attendance of DeSantis events, recently led to State Senator Jason Pizzo calling Bush ‘DeSantis’ “little bitch.”’ Many Democratic officials have endorsed Gantt, who has raised $110,000 vs Bush’s $70,000. The primary is open to all voters, but is still going to be heavily Democratic and majority black, with a sizeable Hispanic share of the vote.
Republicans will be able to make up a small share of the vote, though Democrats will likely top 70% of the primary share. I highly recommend my substack piece for more info on this race and blow up with Senator Pizzo (who was 100% right).
District 113 – Democrat and Republican Primary
House District 113 covers Key Biscayne and the southern portion of the city of Miami; including communities like Brickell, Shenandoah, and Little Havana. A Hispanic-majority district, It is use to be a swing region but has become much more Democratic in recent years. Even with Miami-Dade’s 2020 swing to the right, Biden still won this district by 12 points; while Andrew Gillum won it by 20. Both parties have primaries for this open seat.
First the Democrats. Andres Althabe, a retired attorney who hails from Uruguay, is the president of the Biscayne Neighbors Association. His opponent is lawyer Alessandro “A.J.” D’Amico, who is a member of the Cuban American Bar Association and has a history in government work. D’Amico, who was a registered Republican until 2017, was a legislative aid for former Senator Rene Garcia and former Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. He was one of many Clinton-voting Republicans in Miami-Dade in 2016 and has expressed frustration with the GOP being unwilling to denounce groups like the Proud Boys. Both candidates largely agree on the big issues. Althabe has raised $80,000 while D’Amico has brought in $140,000. Outgoing Rep Duran has said D’Amico is his preferred successor.
Two Republicans are running for the nomination for this seat. Criminal justice activist Vicki Lopez, who initially was running for state senate, is facing off against property manager Alberto Perosch. Lopez has quite the backstory: serving on the Lee Commission in the 1990s before resigning and being convicted of mail fraud, only for the sentence to late being vacated. Since them, she has been involved in GOP politics and the past hasn’t hindered her fundraising. She has raised $125,000 and loaned $50,000 via her official account and raised another $60,000 through a political committee. Perosch, meanwhile, has raised only $15,000. However, he is fueling his run with a $150,000 loan.
District 118 – Republican Primary
House District 118 covers unincorporated communities and is a heavily Hispanic seat in Southwest Miami-Dade. HD119 incumbent Juan Fernandez-Barquin is running for re-election here. Despite being an incumbent with the backing of Ron DeSantis and House GOP leadership, he has a well-funded primary challenger. Daniel Sotelo, a business owner, has been filed for the seat for a while, with redistricting altering districts. He’s raised $120,000, though most of that was before he wound up in a race with an incumbent member. He also loaned his campaign $50,000. Fernandez-Barquin has raised over $230,000 with his official committee and over $200,000 more via his political committee. Third candidate Francisco Rodriguez has raised no money. With no major issues dividing candidates, and GOP heavyweights behind him, Fernandez-Barquin should emerge successful.
District 119 – Democrat and Republican Primary
The restructured house district 119 is located in Southwest Miami-Dade, covering communities like West Kendal and The Hammocks. It is heavily Hispanic and voted for Trump by 8 points after voting for Gillum by 6. Both parties have primaries for this seat.
Five Republicans are running for the nomination.
- Attorney Rob Gonzalez has raised over $120,000.
- Businessman Juan Carlos Porras has raised $85,000
- Ricky Tsay, VP of International Inn hotel, has self-funded $350,000 and has raised $75,000 via a political committee.
- Small business owner and GOP committee member Ashley Alvarez has raised $12,000
- Jose Soto, a retired teacher, has raised $5,000
Whoever takes the nomination will be heavily favored in the fall.
On the democratic side, neither candidate has raised much cash. James A. Cueva and Gabriel Gonzalez have both raised less than $10,000.
District 120 – Democrat and Republican Primary
A rematch is underway in the Republican primary for HD120. This district, with covers the Florida Keys and southern Miami-Dade, is normally a seat that produces moderate Republicans. In 2020, Jim Mooney narrowly edged Rhonda Rebman Lopez by less than 1%. Since his election, Mooney has generally been on the left-end of the GOP caucus. Notably defying votes were his rejection of “Don’t Say Gay” and rejecting the legislature overturning the anti-cruise ship referendums from Key West. Lopez has his Mooney from the right on social issues, but also claims she will be a better defender of water protection (you can’t run in the Florida Keys and be considered anti-environment). However, Florida Republicans recognize Mooney’s right-of-center positions on many issues make him their best candidate to hold the seat; and have gone after Lopez in attacks. Meanwhile, Florida Democratic operatives have been busted “rat-fucking” the primary – running anti-Mooney ads with the goal of propelling Lopez. Mooney has raised $250,000 and over $75,000 via a political committee. Lopez ha raised $130,000 and $40,000 more via a political committee. A third candidate, Robert Scott Allen, has loaned $6,000 and raised little. Mooney has incumbency but has a narrow win in 2020. Both parties clearly believe Mooney is the strongest GOP candidate. Incumbency should keep Mooney, but clearly this is a race.
Two Democrats are running for the nomination for the district. Adam Gentle and Daniel ‘Dan’ Horton-Diaz, both attorneys. Each candidate has similar positions on the issues, and their primary is far less negative than the GOP side. Horton-Diaz has run twice before, losing a general election for HD120 in 2016, and losing a Democratic primary for SD39 in 2020. He’s raised $60,00 and loaned another $16,000. Gentle, meanwhile, has brought in over $80,000. Whoever wins is no doubt hoping Lopez takes the nomination. Regardless though, Republicans have a slight advantage In this Trump +4, Gillum +2 districts.
Conclusion
I have no words left. Enjoy!