Three years ago, Rowan, a small county on the eastern end of the state, burst into the national spotlight. Clerk of Court Kim Davis, a Evangelical Christian, refused to issue marriage licenses to any couple following the Supreme Court’s monumental decision legalizing same-sex marriages nationwide. Davis hoped that denying all licenses would get her around rules baring her from discriminating against a specific group. However, the strategy did not work, as Davis was sue by a same-sex couple. After the courts ordered her to resume issuing licenses, and her refusal to do so, she was jailed for contempt of court for five days. In the end, a compromise was orchestrated to allow the deputy clerks to issue licenses (which did not include Davis’ name). The whole saga was a national story during the early stages of the 2016 Presidential race. The issue divided the Republicans candidates for President; some defending her and others saying the law must be followed. After her release and the compromise, she began to fade from national spotlight. Davis had been elected as a Democrat in the 2014 elections, but she left the party in 2016, saying the party had abandoned her, and joined the GOP.
Now, 3 years later, she is running for re-election.
Rowan County
Before delving into the race, some backstory on Rowan is important. As I said, the county sits in eastern Kentucky and with a population of 23,000, is very unassuming.
The city of Morehead, home to Morehead State University, is the county seat. A second city, Lakeview heights, sits right nextdoor.
Like much of rural Kentucky, the county’s politics are filled with ticket-splitters. The county is majority Democratic in registration and has more Democratic local officials than it does GOP officials. However, the county has routinely backed GOP candidates for President and Democrats for US Senate. The county has split its votes for state house members and state senators and overall can go for either party.
The county is is more centrist than many of its neighbors; not doubt aided by the influence of the University vote – which is reliably democratic. The county backed Romney in 2012, but only by a 8 point margin; much better than some of the neighboring counties.
Like many white, rural counties – Rowan swung much further to Trump four years later. Trump took 59% of the vote but still lost several Morehead precincts, especially those right around the University. Meanwhile, every county that borders Rowan gave Trump over 67% of the vote.
The same day Rowan voted for Trump, it also voted Democrat for US Senate. Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, who is openly gay, defeated GOP Senator Rand Paul by a 5% margin.
Just two years before that, Rowan backed Allison Grimes as the Democrat for US Senate of Mitch McConnell.
Rowan’s ticket splitting nature exists on the local level as well. In the 2014 elections, they voted democrat for the position of Judge/Executive while voting Republican for the position of Jailer.
These are just a few of the elections in Rowan. They all show a county that still has Democratic roots but a willingness to split its tickets. Overall the county does vote more Democratic than Republican. This bar graph below looks at contested races in Rowan’s recent past and find far more Democratic wins than GOP wins.
So Rowan overall does have a democratic lean to it when you look at a combination of local, federal, and state races. That said, many of its GOP backings have been in more recent years
Kim Davis’ Political Career
Kim David became the Clerk of Court or Rowan in 2014. Her mother had been clerk for many years and Davis served as her chief deputy. When her mother announced retirement, Davis ran for the post. She narrowly won the Democratic primary, beating Elwood Caudill, who worked in the Property Valuation office for Rowan (in Florida we call it Property Appraiser). The race was decided by 23 votes.
In true irony, the best precinct for Davis in the primary was the one that hangs right over Morehead State University.
Davis had a GOP opponent and won the general by a modest margin.
Davis, by all accounts, was a rather unassuming Democrat. The only controversy around her has been issues of nepotism and her pay level while a deputy under her mother. Caudill made this an issue in the race and it may have traveled with her into the general.
Davis’ actions during the time following the legalization of same-sex marriage thrust her and the county into the spotlight. One can only imagine the circus that would have developed if Davis was up for re-election sooner. She was still in her first year when the court battles and jail sentence took place.
The only real way to gauge the perception of Rowan voters on the matter was anecdotal accounts and the 2015 State Elections. Interviews with residents showed a mix of support, opposition, and many who wanted the controversy to simply go away. The residents, by all accounts, did not want to engage in the debate or be the focus of a national fight.
When the 2015 elections came around, Republican Matt Bevin defeated Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway in the Gubernatorial election. Conway made national headlines in 2014 when he refused to defend the states’s position on banning same-sex marriage. When a lower court struck down the ban, Conway refused to appeal the decision. When Davis’ controversy erupted, Conway refused to grant a legal exemption for Davis. At the same time, he did not seek to prosecute her following the compromise. Conway overall angered conservatives by allowing Davis to be jailed and not writing an opinion to give her and other clerks a legal out from issuing licenses. Meanwhile, Bevin stood firmly on the side of Davis and spoke out for her as he worked to court the socially conservative vote. The one question was how Rowan would vote. In the end, they backed Conway by 3 points.
Conway’s win, at a night where Rowan backed some cabinet-level Dems and some cabinet-level Republicans, at least showed residents were not especially angry with Davis’ jailing.
After a few months, the national spotlight left and the county resumed normal activities. It wasn’t until the 2018 elections; when Davis would be up, that more press started to trickle in. That said, attention on Davis is nothing compared to 2015. The google trends graph highlights my point.
The 2018 election did take an interesting turn when David Ermold, who had been denied a license by Davis for him an his partner, and sued her; triggering the events – filed to run. Ermold filed as a Democrat. With Davis as a Republican by this point, the match-up was set for November. However, Ermold didn’t have the primary to himself. His most notable challenger was Elwood Caudill, the man Davis had beaten four years earlier.
Ermold’s campaign generated an unprecedented amount of money. From all over the nation, money poured into Ermold to oust Davis. He raised a staggering $220,000. For comparison, David and Caudill both raised less than $10,000 each.
It seemed like Ermold was a sure thing. But then, he lost, badly.
Ermold won one precinct – the ones that directly overlaps the University. Caudill won everywhere else in the city and ran especially strong in rural precincts. The overwhelming consensus from talking to residents was that they did not want to re-litigate the culture war of 2015. Many residents expressed sympathy for Ermold and a dislike for how Davis made their county a joke. However, they simply wanted to move past that time. Caudill was an unassuming guy who pledge to treat all constituents fairly, said he would have issued the licenses had he been clerk, and had a strong record as an administrator in the property valuation office. For voters, the idea of an unassuming local officeholder was desirable.
Unfortunately, the post-primary unity never came. Ermold was clearly upset with the loss, refusing press interviews after the election. Ermold went on to claim Caudill was homophobic, bashed the Rowan Democratic Party, and said he wouldn’t support anyone in the general election. The day after Ermold’s post, Kentucky Fairness, a statewide LGBT organization, endorsed Caudill, something Ermold said was “personally offensive”. Caudill pointed to his opposition to Davis’ actions and his attendance at LGBT events. Were some of his supporters less open to gay people? Probably. Caudill won rural precincts easily. However, he also won Morehead easily and did respectable around the university. Ermold no doubt experienced homophobia on the trail, but there is zero indication Caudill is homophobic.
Just a few days ago, Ermold posted a photo on his open-to-everyone facebook of him burning a Caudill mailer with the caption “Looks like we got more political trash in the mail.”
Ermold did post photos of him burning Davis mailers as well, for what its worth.
Anyway, Ermold aside, Caudill seems to largely have Rowan democrats unified, and that’s good when Democrats dominate registration. Caudill is working to cast himself as the candidate who will ensure quiet returns to Rowan. This could prove to be a very effective message. While Ermold generated huge sums of money, the reverse has not appeared to happen for Davis. She has raised a $9,000 for her general election and Caudill has raised just under $6,000.
On Tuesday Rowan will decide. In my gut I believe Davis will be ousted. Rowan appears, at least on its surface, to want to move on and not risk national spotlight again. For them, Caudill is their safest bet on that.
Update
Davis indeed went on to lose re-election. She lost across the county, only winning a two precincts and doing especially poor in the Morehead and campus community. Her weakest precinct was the same one that vote for Ermold in the Democratic primary.
