February 25th will feature two special elections for Democratic-held state house seats in Kentucky. One is based right on the Kentucky border, just outside the city of Cincinnati. The other is a rural district located just east of Lexington. While the Cincinnati-based HD67 has generated far less attention, the fight for the rural HD99 has been expensive and stands as test for Democratic Party futures in rural Kentucky.
Kentucky’s 99th District
The 99th, is the subject of a large amount of intrigue. The district, until recently represented by House Democratic leader Rocky Adkins, sits just an hour east of Lexington.
The heavily rural seat, covering Lewis, Rowan, and Elliot counties, backed Trump with 67% of the vote but has been Represented by Adkins since the 1980s. So why is this special election taking place?
Backstory
Rocky Adkins is a major player in eastern Kentucky. The longtime lawmaker and house democratic leader decided to make a play for Governor in 2019 and stood a real chance of winning the primary. Adkins’ main opponent was Andy Beshear, the attorney General and son of former Governor Steve Beshear. Former State Auditor Thomas Edelen also posed a real challenge due to his concentrated strength in the major cities and groups around Lexington and Louisville.
Adkins racked up huge margins in eastern Kentucky, securing over 90% of the vote in his own house seat. He was edged out by Beshear, however, who managed to hold on to decent margins in the major cities and in the west.
In the general election, Beshear won the election by the narrowest of margins. Adkins was a major surrogate for Beshear on the campaign trail, and Beshear made strong improvements in the eastern Kentucky region and narrowly carried Adkins’ district.
After the election, Beshear asked Adkins to join his adminstration as a senior advisor. Adkins accepted and resigned his state house seat, triggering the special election.
The Politics of HD99
Like many districts outside of Louisville and Lexington, House District 99 voted for Donald Trump despite being more democratic down ballot. In 2016, when Adkins was winning re-election with 66% of the vote, Trump secured just under 68%. That same day, Rand Paul won the district in his senate re-election, but with a smaller 54% share.
Current registration in the district gives Democrats a 9 point advantage. Beshear narrowly carried the district in 2019.
Lewis county is the most steadily GOP county in the district. Adkins almost won it in his re-election. Elliot is a solidly Democratic county down-ballot and Rowan overall leans Democratic. In 2019, all democratic candidates won Elliot county, while Rowan split (but GOP wins there were narrow).
At the local level, Elliot’s county-level officers are all Democratic while Lewis is all Republican. Rowan’s local officers are all Democrats except for jailer (yep that’s an elected position in Kentucky).
Rowan holds almost half the registered voters in the district, with Lewis coming in 2nd with 1/3.
The district, it turns out, is a bit of a bellwether for statewide margins. Most democratic candidates have performed a few points better in the district than statewide. The biggest exception being the 2016 Presidential race.
Rowan County Importance
Rowan will be critical for this race. A strong Democratic margin will be needed to overcome what is sure to be a deep-red Lewis county vote. Democrats will also need big Elliot margins, but that county is still the smallest share of the vote.
The importance of Rowan is reflected in the fact that both candidates are from the county. Democrat Bill Redwine is from Morehead and the former chair of the Rowan Board of Education. Republican Richard White is a business owner from Morehead who used to be co-chair of the Rowan Republican Party.
Morehead is the geographic and population center of the county. It includes Morehead State University, an important source of Democratic votes.
A more detailed look at Rowan’s politics can be found in my article looking at the electoral defeat of the infamous Clerk of Court, Kim Davis. Davis, if you remember, generated headlines in 2015 for refusing to give out same-sex marriage certificates. She was originally elected as a Democrat but ran for re-election as a Republican. She lost.
The other factor for Democrats will be turnout around the university. The school is the most democratic part of the county and turnout in specials is normally low for campuses. This could lead to a Rowan than is slightly more red than in normal general elections.
Fundraising
This race has generated plenty of money for the candidates and from outside spending. Redwine has raised a staggering $100,000, with $45,000 coming from the Kentucky Democratic Party. White has raised $30,000 but has also been aided by outside groups working to galvanize the vote in deep-red Lewis county.
House District 67
The second special election in Kentucky is located in Campbell County, just across the river from Cincinnati. House District 67 was a narrow Trump district that voted solidly blue in 2019. The seat is open because Beshear appointed Democrat Dennis Keene to become commissioner of the Department for Local Government.
Beshear secured a solid 61% of the vote, winning almost every precinct.
The Attorney General race, which was a 15 point statewide GOP win, voted Democratic by 6 points, with democratic margins strongest right along the river.
The Democratic candidate is Rachel Roberts, who has raised $55,000. Republican Mary Jo Wedding has raised just $5,000.
Conclusion
The big race to watch is HD99. Democrats appear confident they will hold the 67th, but the 99th is very much a tossup. For Democrats, holding the 99th is important to showing they can still win in rural areas when longtime incumbents retire. The GOP wants to continue its gains in the once-Democratic-dominated Eastern Kentucky region. Of course, whoever wins on Tuesday will be back on the ballot again this November; when Donald Trump is on the ballot.