2026 Florida Congressional Primary Preview

Its primary time in Florida! Like previous election cycles, I have offered up a deep dive into all major primaries races in the state. Today’s article is covering Florida’s Congressional primaries, which are being held under the new gerrymander that Ron DeSantis pushed through a lapdog legislature earlier this year. For more data and background on the new map, check out my breakdown here. The new map is an extreme Republican gerrymander that takes the state from 8 Democratic-leaning seats and down to four.

I will get into each gerrymander as I dive into the respective primaries below. Any race with no primary doesn’t get mentioned. I will dive into general election analysis once we get past the primaries. Keep an eye out on Monday or so for another article looking at the statewide and State legislative primaries!

With that lets dive in!

Congressional District 1 Republican Primary

Republican Congressman Jimmy Patronis was elected to Congress in a special election last year. The special was triggered after Congressman Matt Gaetz resigned amid ethics investigations into his paying a 17 year old girl for sex. In the special election, Patronis, then the CFO of Florida, earned Trump’s endorsement and easily prevailed with 66% of the vote in the Republican Primary. In the general election, he massively under-performed in the general election, winning by 15% in a district Trump had won by 37%. Patronis is an uninspiring candidate, and took barbs in the special for the fact he does not live in the district, but rather in the neighboring 2nd. However, he only faces token opposition in the 2026 Republican primary.

John Frankman and Douglas Chico, both veterans, have filed against Patronis for the Republican Primary. Neither candidate, however, has managed to generate much money or attention to the race. Doug Chico, who has cited opposition surveillance camera roll-outs as a major driver for his bid, had raised just $30,000 and loaned his campaign $50,000. John Frankman, who was forced out of the army for refusing COVID vaccines, had pulled in $80,000 and loaned another $50,000 to his campaign. Patronis, meanwhile, sits on over $3,500,000 and still has Trump’s support. He will easily prevail in August.

Once Patronis advances to the general election, he will face off against Gay Valimont in a rematch from the 2025 special election.

Congressional District 2 Republican & Democratic Primaries

A very crowded and expensive set of primaries are taking place for Florida’s 2nd Congressional district. This Trump +18% seat is being left open by Republican Congressman Neal Dunn, who is retiring due to health concerns. The seat was once a Democratic stronghold that combined Tallahassee with the rural panhandle; which until the late 2000s was a much more reliable Democratic voting block. Today, however, the only Democratic pockets that remain are in the Tallahassee area and among the rural Black population. Rural whites have become blood red.

I did a two-part series on the era of Democratic dominance in the district, told through the elections of Congressman Allen Boyd, which you can check out there. The district last elected a democrat in 2014, when Gwen Graham narrowly edged out Republican Congressman Steve Southerland, who had ousted Boyd in the 2010 red wave.

Outside of Tallahassee/Leon County, the largest population center is Panama City/Bay County. Bay has long been a Republican bastion in the region, even back when the smaller rural counties were heavily Democratic. The tale of Leon vs Bay is seen in how votes are likely to be concentrated in the respective partisan primaries for this seat. For the Democratic Primary, over HALF of registered democrats come from Leon County alone, with just 14% from Bay. Meanwhile, Republicans have 32% of their registered voters in Bay and just 23% in Leon.

The registration/geography differences have led to fundamentally different regional focuses for each respective primary.

The Republican Primary

Eight Republicans are running for the Republican nomination for this seat, though arguably only four have a realistic chance at winning. The biggest spender by far has been attorney Keith Gross, who has thrown $12,000,000 into his bid. Gross initially ran for office in 2024, running in the Republican Primary for US Senate against Rick Scott. The effort, which saw Gross only get 9% of the vote, was widely seen as an effort to simply promote a book he wrote that year. This time, however, Gross’ major funding have led him to have a real shot at the nomination in such a split field. His biggest challenge is Bay County attorney Austin Rogers, who until recently served as general legal counsel for Senator Scott. Rogers has raised over $600,000 and loaned his campaign another $400,000 – and he has a PAC backing him that has brought in at least $2,000,000.

Dueling polls have shown either Rogers or Gross leading in the primary, albeit with either in the low 20% range and may undecideds. The two have gone negative against each-other; with Rogers recently hit for being supposedly soft on immigration and a Washington insider. The PAC supporting Rogers, which is run by some of his family members, attacked Gross for being registered as a Democrat in George almost two decades ago. The ad also used Gross’s sexuality – Gross is gay – against him by referencing the fact he is married to a man. Bringing this irrelevant fact up is of course designed to appeal to anti-gay conservatives in the district. After a lawsuit threat, the ad was polled from TV stations just recently.

As Gross and Rogers nuke each-other on the airwaves, this has paved a chance for different candidates to emerge from the ashes. One such candidate is Tallahassee’s Evan Power, who is the current Republican Party of Florida Chairman and the former leader of the Leon GOP. Power, who has raised $560,000 and loaned his campaign another $150,000, was hoping to earn the endorsement of Donald Trump and clear out the primary field, but that never materialized. Such an endorsement would have been needed for Power to ever be the front-runner, as he is not a strong campaigner and only became Chairman when the former chair was forced out in scandal. Power first ran for office way back in 2012, where he self-funded a bid for Leon County Soil and Water Board… and lost.

I actually wrote all about these weird Soil and Water board offices some time ago, which you can read here. Since then, Power has been a stooge in Republican Party circles, worming his way up the party apparatus with glad handing. Then in 2018, Power was hit with a DUI when he crashed his car into a parked vehicle while clearly drunk. Of course in politics, sadly I may ad, this horrible safety violation is not a career ender. Power is now largely polling in 3rd place in this primary, but as I mentioned could benefit from the Rogers vs Gross feud. One of his main issues is Leon, easily his strongest base, does not dominate the primary. Meanwhile, Gulf County Superintendent Jim Norton, who has raised $400,000 and is polling right behind Power, and likewise could benefit from the Gross/Rogers battle. Norton is the most prominent elected official running, but Gulf county is a small share of the vote.

Rounding out the candidate field is Luke Murphy, who’s raised $280,000, Audie Rowell, who’s raised $120,000, Nick Lewis, who’s running on a $95,000 loan, and Lee Jones, who’s running on a $50,000 loan.

The Democratic Primary

Despite being a firmly Republican seat, four Democrats are running serious money campaigns for the nomination. Attorney Yen Bailey, who ran in 2024 as a late-minute replacement when the original nominee had to withdraw, has raised $175,000. Former foreign aid contractor Amanda Green has raised $350,000. Tech businessman Nicholas Zateslo has raised $350,000 and loaned himself another $100,000. Longtime political activist and disabilities advocate Brice Barnes has raised $100,000 and self-funded another $215,000. The policy differences between any of the candidates is minimal; with the primary largely driven by building up name ID. Bailey almost surely started the primary with the highest name ID, but Zateslo has been gaining a following with his focus on the need for regulation of AI data centers.

With Leon and neighboring Gadsden likely to make up over 60% of the Democratic primary vote, the primary campaign has been most extensive in the capital area.

Congressional District 3 Democratic Primary

There are four Democrats running for the right to take on Republican Incumbent Kat Cammack in this Trump +21 seat. She is unopposed for re-nomination. The democratic nominee from 2024, Tom Wells, is running; as is Troy Albers, Seth Harp and George Hubac. None of these candidates have raised a good deal of money, with no one raising more than $40,000.

These candidates, however, are not only going to struggle against Cammack, but also against an independent candidate Mike Klein, a veteran of Desert Storm that is running on a populist anti-war and campaign finance reform message. Klein’s $60,000 in fundraising is small, but more than any of the Democrats.

Congressional District 4 Democratic Primary

Three Democrats are running for the right to take on Republican Congressman Aaron Bean in the 4th Congressional District. This seat, which voted for Trump by 12% in 2024, was part of the 2022 gerrymander that originally carved up the Black-performing 5th Congressional district; a saga I cover in great detail here. The 2026 new gerrymander did not alter the lines here. The 4th district is specifically drawn to grab a large chunk of the Democratic voting block in Jacksonville/Duval County and pair them with the deep red counties of Nassau and Clay.

In both 2022 and 2024, Democrats had little focus on trying to flip the district, however, this year more interest has been generated at potentially targeting the seat. However, flipping the district is still a struggle, as many of the Republican-leaning voters are very firm in the GOP camp. This is not helped by the fact the Democratic Primary has become heated and nasty.

Democrats got a reasonable strong recruit for the seat in September of 2025 when attorney Michael Kirwan, who once served as the head of the Jacksonville ethics commission, opted to run for the seat. Kirwan has raised over $640,000 for his bid and loaned another $100,000. For many months was the presumed front-runner for the nomination. However, a July poll has indicated that LJ Holloway, a Black attorney in Jacksonville and former DEM nominee for the seat, is ahead of Kirwan 41% to 11%; despite raising just $30,000 in the contest so far.

Holloway has been around Jacksonville politics for a decade now. She was the Democratic nominee for the seat in 2022 and 2024. Before redistricting, she also had run for the old Florida 5th in 2016 and 2020. Her 2020 bid saw her come in a distant third to Al Lawson in his last run in the 5th before redistricting carved it up.

Holloway has never been a good fundraiser or real electoral powerhouse. She leads primary polls thanks to name ID from past runs. The July polling has her with a dominant lead with Black voters, who are the primary demographic in the Democratic Primary; and are based largely around Jacksonville.

The Kirwan vs Holloway contest has become nasty as time has gone on; with dueling endorsements for both camps. Al Lawson has endorsed Kirwan; but Holloway has the support of civil rights attorney Ben Crump. Kirwan has been hit for him switching his registration to Republican in 2016, only to switch back to Democrat in 2021; while Holloway has been criticized as being unable to win the district in a general election. Kirwan made what I see as a desperate play when he sent a mailer with Holloway shaking hands with far-right Republican candidate James Fishback; something that occurred when Fishback showed up at Holloway’s campaign kickoff. The mailer implies Fishback support for Holloway but the only evidence is a handshake. The move does tell me Kirwan knows he is down to Holloway; otherwise such an attack wouldn’t be tried. A third candidate, Brit Robinson, is running to the left of both Kirwan and Holloway. They have raised $30,000, but trail in third among available polling.

Despite on paper being a strong candidate, Kirwan has struggled to build up a proper base of support in the Democratic Primary. LJ Holloway seems more likely than not to emerge as the nominee despite little cash; but thanks to strong name ID from previous runs. If that outcome does indeed come to pass, it will be a notable lesson in how just raising tons of cash don’t guarantee a nomination when you haven’t made serious inroads with the electorate.

Congressional District 5 Republican & Democratic Primaries

Both parties have primaries for this Trump +21 seat, covers eastern Jacksonville and the Northern half of St. Johns County.

The Republican Primary

Longtime incumbent John Rutherford is running for re-election, but has a primary to deal with from his right. Rutherford, who previously served as Jacksonville Sheriff, has long had an uneasy relationship with the more MAGA right of the party. Despite being a steady conservative vote, he angers conservatives largely with budget/omnibus votes. He also generate major right-wing anger for vocally opposing Jim Jordan as Speaker of the House in 2023. The anger was enough that in 2024, he had a weaker-than-expected showing in the Republican Primary against an underfunded opponent. This was actually similar the 65% he got in 2022.

This time, Rutherford is being challenged by former radio host and now podcaster Mark Kaye; who says Rutherford is out of touch with the district. Among the critiques, beyond not being conservative enough, Rutherford has been hit for never holding town halls in the district and being considered generally aloof. This is a critique that is broadly agreed on across the political isle; Rutherford is NOT a good retail politician. Kaye made international news in 2024 when he got busted using AI image generators to create a fake photo of Trump with a crowd of Black fans; part of an effort to bring Black voters into the GOP camp. Kaye has continued to use AI images in this campaign to attack Rutherford.

In terms of fundraising, Rutherford remains far ahead with $700,000 raised. Kaye, meanwhile, had raised just $30,000, but is running a far more aggressive campaign aside from money. I would say Rutherford remains a favorite, but he has shown himself to be a weak campaigner and under-performed before. While a Kaye win is unlikely, its not impossible, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pull a decent chunk of the vote.

The Democratic Primary

On the Democratic side, three candidates have filed to take on the winner of the Rutherford/Kaye primary. Rachel Grage, a biomedical engineer, is the heavy money leader in the contest; raising $250,000. Trailing her are Mark Heggestad, who has raised $40,000, and Alex Hazen, who has raised $16,000. This has been a quiet primary with little coverage, but it seems likely Grage will emerge from the primary based solely on ability to advertise.

Congressional District 6 Republican & Democratic Primaries

The sixth Congressional district, which did not see any changes in the 2026 gerrymander, covers six counties around and north of Daytona Beach. This Trump +30 seat was won by far-right, lunatic, bigot, and total jackass Randy Fine in a 2025 special election. Fine won the race by 14%, a severe under-performance compared to the Presidential baseline; a race I covered in more detail here.

Fine, a former casino executive, was elected to the state house in 2016 and subsequently to the State Senate in 2024 for Brevard County. He has long been a controversial figure, and for good reason. I covered many of his controversies in my 2024 Primary Preview article (go to Senate 17 section). He was known to use his power in the legislature to threaten businesses and organization. He’s been dubbed “The Bully of Brevard” for these efforts. In addition to be a vehement bigot against the LGBT community, Fine engages in outright genocidal rhetoric against Muslim and Arabs. Well before the Gaza war even began, when once confronted on twitter about a dead Palestinian child, Fine said “I don’t personally feel bad when human shields are killed,”. Since the Gaza war began, Fine has routinely praised the mass-death of civilians in the conflict – all while tweeting about #MuslimProblem. Far more of his behavior is documented here.

The sad irony is that Fine, who is Jewish, has had to deal with legit anti-Semitic white supremacists in his Brevard County district. However, he treats Muslim people with the same inhumanity that he is attacked with by those who wave NAZI flags. This contradiction has been perfectly encapisilated in his Republican Primary – which sees him facing off with someone who can only be viewed as a true anti-Semite.

The Republican Primary

There are four Republicans taking on Fine in the Republican Primary for the district. However, the race has been dominated by two men. First is Incumbent Randy Fine, who has Trump’s endorsement and raised $4,200,000 for re-election. His most high-profile opponent is far-right influencer Dan Bilzerian, who dubs himself the “King of Instagram,” and who is a vehement anti-Semite; labeling Fine a “fat Jew” when announcing his challenge. Bilzerian has spread anti-Semitic conspiracies for years, which have included 9/11 conspiracies, Holocaust Denial, and a support for the violent destruction of Israel and its population. Bilzerian has raised $200,000 and loaned his campaign another $1,000,000.

Fine, meanwhile, has typically responded to these attacks by being a bigot right back. Since Bilzerian is originally from Armenia, Fine generated headlines for going after Armenians as a whole and saying “We don’t want Armenians to be able to serve Congress.” Fine claimed after the fact he was referring to Bilzerian holding duel-citizenship, but with his past bigoted comments, he did not get a pass. Fine also drew massive controversy earlier this year when, replying to racist stereotypes about Muslims eating dogs, said if the choice was between the two, dogs were better. This comment led to the popular Volusia County Sheriff Mike Chitwood to rescind his endorsement of the Congressman.

I have basically come to view the primary between Fine and Bilzerian as a real-life version of this absolute classic from the Onion Youtube channel.

The primary between Fine and Bilzerian is a race to the bottom. They have sucked up the attention as three other Republicans have struggled to gain any real traction or attention. Charles Gambaro, a member of the Palm Coast city commission, has raised $90,000 and loaned his campaign another $250,000; and is the lone elected official to challenge Fine. Businessman Aaron Baker has raised $100,000 and investor Manuel Asensio is running on a $50,000 loan.

Realistically Fine is guaranteed to hold the primary. Its also entirely realistic that Bilzerian, for all the attention, may not even get second place. Gambaro has some support, including from Florida Lt Governor Jay Collins. However, its hard to see Fine, who easily won the 2025 special election primary, from losing here.

The Democratic Primary

While the Republican Primary remains a nightmare, four Democrats are facing off in a much quieter primary for the right to take on Fine in the general. Businessman Eric Younce has raised $290,000, former EMS professional Ron Murchinson-Rivera has raised $150,000, non-profit director Robert David Cooper has raised $56,000, and brewer Steve Morgan has raised $7,000. Much less has been said about this race. Whoever emerges will struggle in November despite Fine’s controversies. The district is just too red.

Congressional District 7 Republican & Democratic Primaries

In 2022, Florida Republicans redrew the 7th Congressional district to become a Republican-leaning district. The 7th has long been based in Seminole County, a once Republican-dominated Orlando suburb that has now become a pivotal swing county in the state. The old map layout saw the district go from Seminole and into Orange. Under that layout, the seat went from a modest GOP district to a DEM-leaning seat; driven by the suburban growth Democrats saw across the country. In 2022, Republicans countered this my removing Orange from the district and instead adding deep-red southern Volusia County.

This new layout, which voted for Trump by 6% in the 2020 general election, was enough to flip the seat to Republicans that year. The Republican in question was Cory Mills, a veteran who served in the Department of Defense under Trump’s first term in office. Mills emerged from a crowded and expensive primary in August of 2022, winning both counties but really racking up a strong margin in Volusia.

Mills easily won the general election that November and faced little trouble in 2024. Meanwhile, the 2024 Presidential election saw the the seat go for Trump by+12%. Republicans made no changes to the lines in the recent 2026 gerrymander. However, Mills is arguably Florida Florida’s most endangered incumbent. Due to a litany of personal and ethical scandals, Mills is struggling just to emerge in the Republican Primary. Even if he does survive the primary, he will face a tough road in the general election.

Both parties have serious primaries underway. Lets start with the Republicans and see why Mills is in so much trouble.

The Republican Primary

Congressman Cory Mills has been under increasing scrutiny since early in 2025. That February, it was announced that DC police were investigating a claim Mills had physically assaulted a woman he was seeing. An arrest warrant was issued by the police, but State Attorney Ed Martin, a fierce partisan hack, did not sign the order; and hence no arrest took place. This led to a long-time girlfriend of Mills, a Republican activist and former model named Lindsey Langston, to break up with Mills. According to Langston, Mills threatened to release x-rated photos of her, a form of revenge porn, when she ended the relationship. Langston was eventually granted a RESTRAINING ORDER from against Mills from a Columbia County, Florida judge. This also comes as Mills has been separated from and divorcing his wife of 10 years. The story of his marriage is also so convoluted I’ll just leave the story here. Mills also finds himself under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for financial issues and ethics violations, namely that he may have stakes in weapons contracts awarded by the federal government. A report has even now come out that he is under investigation by the Department of Justice. Thanks to all of this, Mills has been treated like a pariah by many Florida Republicans, who seem fine to see Mills lose his primary. He’s only raised $800,000. The question is, who is likely to beat him?

The Republican best positioned to oust Mills is former Orlando local news anchor Ryan Elijah, who announced his primary campaign in April of this year. So far Elijah has raised $360,000 – with $130,000 of that being a loan. He has been endorsed by the sheriff’s of both Volusia and Seminole. Few Republicans have stuck their neck out for Mills, with Florida Congresspeople Mike Haridopolos and Anna Paulina Luna also endorsing Elijah. Recent polls show Mills with a small lead over Elijah, but with both men under 30%. If Mills holds on, it may come down more to a split field, as two lesser-known candidates are in the race. Activist Michael Johnson has raised $60,0000 and businesswoman Sarah Ulrich has raised $20,000.

Mills is very vulnerable to lose his primary, but nothing is guaranteed. Democrats, meanwhile, would surely prefer Mills hold on, as it would make flipping the seat much easier. On that note….

The Democratic Primary

Three Democrats are running in the primary for this seat. The financial front-runner is Bale Dalton, who spent several years as an administrator for NASA, including a stint as Chief of Staff in 2024. Dalton has raised $1,300,000 and earned a litany of endorsements and institutional support; including form the DCCC. Running slightly to the left of Dalton is navy veteran and nuclear power technician Marialana Kinter, who has raised $600,000. Dalton is for sure the more establishment candidate in the race, but the primary has, as best I have seen, remained cordial and non confrontational. Central Florida political figures have split endorsements between the two. The Orlando Sentinel endorsed Dalton, arguing he matches with the general election electorate better, but Kinter is also not a far-left candidate by any means.

The man guaranteed to place third in this spirited primary is former Congressman Alan Grayson, who decided to enter the race in June. Grayson, if you don’t know who he is, was a Congressman from 2008 to 2010, and again from 2012 to 2016. A progressive that won many fans, he was also a hotheaded jerk that drove away allies. After a failed US Senate run in 2016, he ran for office again and again, becoming a perennial and losing candidate. In the last few years he ran for Congress in 2022 and lost the primary, ran for State Senate in 2024 and lost the primary, and ran for a State Senate special election in 2025 and lost the primary. He has become such a sideshow that I actually wrote a five-part series on his political career – and that was BEFORE his 2024 and 2025 elections. Like before, he’s largely-self funding, loaning his campaign just over $300,000. He will almost for sure come in third and after that I’ll so a Part 6 to my series to catch up. Grayson may hurt Kinter more just by being in the race. However, don’t expect Grayson to pull more than 15%, and I wouldn’t be surprised if its far less.

Congressional District 9 Republican Primary

The 9th Congressional district is held by Democratic Congressman Darren Soto. Before the 2026 redistricting process, Soto’s 9th district was a majority-Hispanic seat that included all of Osceola County and parts of Polk and Orange. It was compact and gave the growing Hispanic and Puerto Rican population of Central Florida a unified voice. In the 2024 elections, even as Trump made major gains with Hispanic voters, Congressman Soto easily prevailed in his seat. While the district backed Harris by just 3.5%, Soto was re-elected by 13%.

Congressman Soto would be at little risk for re-election this year had the map remained the same. However, no Democratic-held district was more damaged by the 2026 gerrymander. Soto’s seat has been radically altered; leaving many Democratic areas in Osceola and Orange and now stretching all the way down to heavily white rural counties. The new 9th, which is just 36% Hispanic, voted or Trump by 18%.

This district came about as Republicans cracked Hispanic voters across multiple districts. While map drawers denied targeting a Hispanic voters, I have called absolutely bullshit on such a denial. I wrote in depth on the changes in Central Florida when it comes to this redistricting plan here. I recommend that link for far more background on the Hispanic growth in central Florida and how this new map short circuits Hispanic representation.

This new 9th will be very hard for Congressman Soto to hold on to. Soto’s strength has been with Hispanic voters, and he now if faced with a whole new group of heavily white voters who have no loyalty to him and are firmly Republican. Whether its the Republican suburbs of Indian River or the rural voters of Glades, these are not communities known for splitting their tickets. They will surely vote Republican for statewide races, and its hard to see if Soto can win enough of those voters to hold on himself. Once we have a nominee for the GOP, I will revisit this race and do an article entirely on the general election dynamics.

Thanks to this new GOP-friendly layout, seven Republicans have filed to run for the seat. The race has become a big money affair, driven largely be self-funding efforts among major candidates. Many come from different regions of the district, and how regionalized the primary vote is could be interesting. Looking at Republican registration by county, Indian River has the largest source of votes, with Osceola not far behind. No county dominates the primary, however. The primary here is also heavily white outside of Orange and Osceola.

The biggest money candidate is 2024 Republican nominee Thomas Chalifoux, who has raised $200,000 and loaned his campaign $3,000,000. Chalifoux, a businessman and former Osceola School Board member, was a big self-funder in his 2024 race as well. Then we have Dan Green, a veteran and former Trump administration official who resides in Indian River County. Green has raised $200,000 and loaned his campaign another $1,100,000. Jorge Martinez, an accounted who emigrated from Cuba and has resided in Orange County, has raised $300,000 and loaned his campaign another $500,000. Ben Butler, who runs dairy and cattle farms in Highlands County, has raised $380,000 for his bid. Steve Rance, an Orlando pastor, has raised $70,000 and loaned his campaign another $80,000. Rounding out the candidates are veteran Justin Story, who’s raised $90,000, and Marcus Carter, who’s raised $30,000.

Endorsements from local officials have varied across the candidate list. Polling has placed multi-way ties between the big money candidates, and its really hard to peg a favorite for the primary. Whoever wins will be favored against Soto thanks to the blatantly racist Congressional remap. I will circle back on all of that once the general election campaign is underway.

Congressional District 11 Republican & Democratic Primaries

Incumbent Republican Congressman Daniel Webster has opted to retire from his 11th Congressional District. Webster’s seat saw some changes in redistricting, namely leaving Polk County and expanding further into Orange. It is now made up of Sumter County, part of Lake, and Part of Orange; and voted for Trump by 16% in 2025. Webster was already a weak incumbent in a primary; with many on the right-wing distrusting him. In 2022, Webster saw a much closer-than-expected primary against far-right influencer Laura Loomer.

Webster, who originally hails from Orange County, was strongest in its suburbs, but lost in the Villages Retirement Community, an area that despite its small geography makes up over 80% of the primary vote in otherwise-rural Sumter County. The influx of new republican retirees meant a longtime politico like Webster, who became Florida’s First Republican State House Speaker in 1996, had trouble building a permantnly loyal base. Webster avoided a real primary in 2024 when he secured Trump’s endorsement. However, his open opposition to mid-decade redistricting this year left him further vulnerable to the right, and he opted to retire. Both sides have primaries for this yeat.

The Republican Primary

Five Republicans are running for this seat. Originally, Anthony Sabatini, a far-right Republican politician, was planning to run. Sabatini was a member of the state house from Lake County, where his abrasive style angered GOP leaders. He planned a run for Congress in 2024, but the Trump endorsement of Webster led to Sabatini instead primarying and ousting a Republican County Commissioner in Lake. Sabatini balked at running when the state’s resign-to-run law meant he’d have to give up his county commission seat even if he lost the primary bid for Congress. With that, Sabatini threw his support to former Lake State Senator and Property Appraiser Carey Baker, the lone previously elected official in the primary.

Baker was actually subject to a crazy story in 2024 when he screwed up his re-election as Property Appraiser. While initially filed as a Republican for re-election, Baker switched his paperwork to a write-in with 30 minutes until the deadline; with the goal being to save on the filing fee. No one else had qualified, so this was fine. However, Baker left the elections office, and shortly after, Mark Jordan, the brother of the Lake County Tax Collector, showed up and paid the fee to file as a Republican! This left Baker forced to mount a write-in bid against Jordan who had his name on the actual ballot. This failed and Baker lost his post – all due to a dumb move to save some cash. Baker has raised $160,000 for his bid and is considered a real contender for the seat, but he is under attack from another prominent candidate.

Businessman Joe Strada has surged to potential front-runner status in the race. Largely self-funding his bid with a $5,000,000 loan, Strada has been hitting Baker hard in television ads over the last several weeks over tax votes from Baker’s time in the legislature. Sabatini’s support for Baker is also being used against him, as Sabatini has been critical of Trump (from a far-right perspective) and hence the claim is Baker is backed by “anti-Trump” Republicans. Strada has earned several notable endorsements; including Congressman Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise. He also has the support of far-right Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier and Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd.

Three other Republicans are in the race. Neurosurgeon Nizam Razack has raised $650,000 – with $560,000 of that being a loan. Veteran Tim Wilkins has raised $320,000 – with $236,000 of that being a loan. Ivette Palomo, meanwhile, has reported no fundraising. The race is largely viewed as a fight between Strada and Baker, but Strada seems to be grabbing much of the institutional support and has the biggest war-chest. As I see, Strada is the likely victor of the primary.

The Democratic Primary

The Democratic Primary for this district is a three-way fight, but the likely winner seems apparent. James Pericola, who has worked in Public Relations for almost two decades and worked in the Clinton administration in the 1990s, is the clear front-runner. He has raised $120,000 – with $65,000 of that being a loan. Veteran Royal Webster has raised $15,000 and educator Dan Williams has not shown any fundraising. Both lesser-funded candidates, however, are running grassroots efforts and campaign events.

Congressional District 12 Democratic Primary

Two Democrats are facing off for the right to take on Republican Congressman Gus Bilirakis in the newly-drawn 12th Congressional district; which now includes parts of Pasco and Hillsborough Counties. The new layout of the district is part of the broader effort by Republicans to gerrymander the Tampa Bay and crack Democrats across several seats.

This longtime Republican seat was made notably bluer in the 2026 DeSantis gerrymander. The effort to crack Tampa’s Democratic voters and make all the seats red led to the 12th going from Trump +34 to Trump +15. While it still makes the seat GOP-likely, increasing rumblings have emerged that Bilirakis may have a general election fight on his hands. National Democrats have made the seat a potential target for the midterms.

Darren McAuley, a combat veteran and military surgeon, has raised $730,000 in his bid for the seat. In addition to strong fundraising, McAuley has earned several prominent Democratic endorsements; from Mark Kelly, Jason Crow, and Pete Buttigieg. McAuley has emerged with more support and financing that his challenger, former Hillsborough Commissioner Kimberly Overman, who has raised $180,000. Overman was elected to one Hillsborough’s at-large Commissioners in 2018; but lost re-election amid Florida’s 2022 red wave. Considering the Hillsborough portion of the district includes 40% of registered Democrats, that does make Overman a serious contender. As best I have found, the primary between the two candidates has not been negative. McAuley is spending much of his time spending money by going after Bilirakis a clear efforts to not only raise his primary profile but also look ahead to the general election.

The view is that McAuley is more likely than not to emerge from the primary. However, it will be interesting to see how Overman performs in Hillsborough vs the rest of the district and if simple name familiarity leads to an upset win.

Congressional District 13 Democratic Primary

Three Democrats are running to take on Republican Congresswoman and pro-Russian nutcase Anna Paulina Luna in this North Pinellas Congressional district that voted for Trump by 13%.

The Democratic front-runner is retired U.S. Army Brigadier General Leela Gray, who has raised $1,200,0000 for her bid. Gray was initially in a big money contest with Earle Ford, but his move to the Chief Financial Officer race has left her the biggest fundraiser for the nomination. She has racked up a large litany of endorsements from Florida and national political figures in the race. Gray, who is running as a moderate Democrat, faces her biggest challenge from teacher Brandt Robinson, who has raised $100,000. Robinson drew state and national attention over his criticism of Florida’s far-right efforts limit or remove any discussion of race in schools. Robinson is running to the left of the primary and framed himself as the grassroots candidate against the better-funded Gray. The final candidate, John Liccione, has raised just $15,000. Liccione ran in 2024’s Democratic primary for the district, getting just 4%.

Congressional District 14 Republican Primary

The 14th Congressional district was another one of the Democratic-held seats that was targeted in the 2026 gerrymander. Democratic Congresswoman Kathy Castor saw her district go from a Democratic seat to a Trump +10 district. The district combines some of the growing Democratic suburbs of I-75 with the Republican-heavy rural communities in the east of the county and the upper-income suburbs of South Tampa.

The district is tough seat for Democrats to hold. However, Congresswoman Castor is a longtime official who has often over-performed Democrats at the top of the ticket; and with the 2026 midterms looking like a pro-Democrat year, she has a real shot to hold on. I’ll dive into the district for a general election in much more detail in a future article. Castor, meanwhile, is unopposed for her re-nomination, while a crowded Republican Primary is underway for the right to face her.

In total, eight Republicans are running for the nomination in this seat. However, two candidates are the clear frontrunners. On one hand is former State Representative Mike Betran, who represented part of the southern end of the disrict in the state house until 2014. The other front-runner is State Representative Kevin Steele, who represented neighboring Pasco County until this year.

While Florida has residency requirements for the State legislature, it is not manadatory to live in the Congressional district you run in. Steele, however, has sought to mitigate his residency issue, something voters can still decide to hold against a candidate, by recently moving into the district and casting a ballot in the August Primary. This did, however, lead the awkward headline where he was forced to resign his state house seat because Florida’s constitution says you must live in your district if you represent it in the state legislature. Steele has highlighted being a Tampa native to try and counter some of the critique of him recently being in Pasco County. Beltran and Steele have led the pack in money and endorsements. Beltran has raised $100,000 but has also loaned his campaign $2,000,000. Steele, meanwhile, has largely operated off a $2,500,000 loan to his campaign. Beltran has received endorsements from folks like Congressman Greg Steube while Steele has the backing of Hillsborough Sheriff Chad Chronister. Dueling polls have put both candidates with small leas in the primary.

While Beltran and Steele dominate the attention, several other candidates are running. The next strongest is Bea Valenti, a former advisor to Ashley Moody, who has has raised $220,000. John Peters, who lost the Republican Primary for a different version of the 14th district in 2024, has raised $200,000. Robert Rochford, who won the 2024 Republican Primary for the 14th, and lost to Castor in the general, has raised $260,000. Rounding things out: Ergin Tek has raised raised $40,000, Michael Marcel has raised $20,000, and Gavriel Soriano has raised $2,000.

By all accounts Beltran or Steele will advance to take on Castor.

Congressional District 15 Democratic Primary

Republican Congresswoman Laurel Lee saw her 15th Congressional District get heavily reshaped in redistricting. Her swing to lean-GOP seat was initially based in parts of Pasco, Hillsborough, and Polk Counties and was a modest GOP to swing district. Under the new gerrymander, her district stretches all the way from Tampa and up to Citrus County; a 90 mile drive from one end of the district to the next.

The move, which as discussed aims to crack Democratic voters in Tampa, could have put Congresswoman Lee at risk of a primary challenge from Citrus or Hernando politicians. In fact when the maps initially came out, Lee looked likely to see a more rural/conservative primary. Hernando Commissioner Steve Champion initially planned to run but eventually opted to not primary Lee. The Congresswoman managed to avoid any primary, leaving her the de-facto Republican nominee in seat that voted for Trump by 20%.

Two democrats, both of whom are army veterans, are running to take on Lee on November. Christopher Irizarry has raised $20,000 while Robert People has $40,000. Whoever emerges will have a very tough time in a district designed to be safe for any Republican candidate.

Congressional District 16 Republican & Democratic Primaries

Congressman Vern Buchanan has opted to retire in the Florida 16th district, which is located south of Tampa. The district was redrawn in the 2026 gerrymander, making it slightly less Republican than before, but still leaning GOP. The new district backed Trump by 14%; linking the DEM-heavy portion of Pinellas and extending that all the way into the rural inland counties of Hardee and DeSoto.

The Pinellas portion of the district, which makes up 1/3 of the district’s population alone, backed Harris by double-digits. Even after DeSoto, Hardee, and the portions of Polk and Sarasota are added to the district, the seat is a virtual tie. However, deep-red Manatee swings the district solidly to the right. However, with the midterms looking increasingly good for Democrats, this seat has been considered on the edge of a possible pickup. With that, both sides have primaries.

The Republican Primary

For the entire campaign, the GOP nomination has been considered Sydney Gruters’ to lose. The wife of current State Senator and Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters, Sydney has Trump’s endorsement and $1,000,000 in fundraising. She has been the clear front-runner since May, where early polling had her at 49% and her two opponents in single-digits. National and state endorsements have flowed into Gruters’ campaign, which has by all accounts run a very reserved operation. This reserved nature has drawn ire from anti-establishment right-wingers; with a good example of those complaints being seen in the Bradenton Times.

One of Gruters opponents is Eddie Speir, who ran against Buchanan back in the 2024 primaries. I documented that campaign here, which delves into Speir, who founded a private “Christian” school, running an unhinged campaign filled with fake endorsements and claims of spiritual warfare. Speir had been on the Board of Trustees for the New College of Florida, but was so controversial he confirmation was rejected by the GOP-dominated Florida Senate. Despite mountains of controversy, Speir harnessed support among anti-establishment right-wingers and with $500,000 in self-funding. and managed 39%. This time, however, Speir does not seem to be doing any self-funding, and has raised just $40,000. Meanwhile, Navy Veteran Ed Pope rounds out the candidate field with $36,000 raised.

Both Speir and Pope have tried to break through against Gruters aura of inevitability. An early-August debate between all three candidates saw Gruters try to stay above the attacks that Pope and Speir launched. The major critique against Gruters is best summed by the line of attack from Speir: “I’m going to ask you to ask yourself. Question: if Joe Gruters wasn’t the RNC Chair, if he didn’t have a relationship with Trump, would that endorsement have happened?”

Gruters should be seen as a clear front-runner for the seat, as her opposition is little funded and she has Trump’s endorsement. However, how Speir does compared to 2024 will be interesting at gauging how much of that was just anti-Buchanan sentiment. A solid 60% of the vote may come from Manatee for this primary alone, so how it goes is likely to decide the entire thing.

The Democratic Primary

There are five candidates running in this district to secure the nomination. The arguable front-runner is Kelly Kirschner, who served on the Sarasota City Council and as Mayor over a decade ago. Kirschner spent many years as administrator of Eckerd College, which is located in Pinellas County. He has raised $300,000 so far. The second biggest fundraiser is air force veteran Tamika Lyles, who has raised $120,000. Lyles was initially running for US Senate before switching to the CD16 contest. Jon Harris, who is a combat veteran and currently works as cybersecurity analyst for the Army Reserve, has raised $80,000. Attorney and democratic activist Jan Schneider has raised $55,000. Finally, former broadcaster and community organizer Glenn Pearson, who ran for Manatee County commission in 2014, has raised $45,000.

The primary vote will be heavily concentrated in Pinellas and Manatee, with each county holding about 45% of the registered democrats.

Congressional District 17 Democratic Primary

The new layout for the 17th Congressional district, held by Republican Greg Steube, includes Charlotte County, most of Sarasota, and a portion of Lee. The seat is deep red, giving Trump over 60% of the vote in 2024. Two democrats have filed: Matthew Montavon, who has raised $90,000, and Allen Spence, who has raised $60,000. Whoever emerges will be a massive underdog in November against Steube.

Congressional District 19 Republican & Democratic Primaries

The 19th Congressional district, which covers portions of Lee and Collier counties in the Southwest coast of Florida, is being left open by Byron Donalds as he makes his bid for Governor. The seat in question is very Republican, backing Trump by 30%. It should be no shock then that many Republicans have filed for the seat.

The nature of the Republican Primary, however, has become a total sideshow of carpetbaggers.

The Republican Primary

A total of ten Republicans have filed for this primary. What has made the crowded field so bizarre is how many prominent Republicans from other states have entered the contest. The whole affair, dubbed a “clown show” many many insiders, is documented well here. A total of SIX candidates are running that have either held office in other states or ran in other states. Many of these candidates have relied on self-funding to mount campaigns.

• Former Congressman Madison Cawthorn, who represented North Carolina before losing his 2022 Republican primary for re-nomination. He’s self-funded his campaign with $900,000.
• Chris Collins, a former Congressman from New York until 2019. He was initially convicted of insider trading but pardoned by Donald Trump. He’s self-funded $3,400,000.
• Jim Oberweis, a former State Senator from Illinois. Oberweis was the Republican nominee for US Senate in Illinois in 2014, but lost the general election to Dick Durbin. He then ran for Congress in 2020, winning the primary but losing the general election. He’s raised $300,000 but loaned his campaign $5,000,000.
• Catalina Lauf, a former Illinois Congressional candidate. Lauf actually lose to Overweis in the 2020 primary referenced above. She won the nomination for a different seat in 2022, but lost the general election. She has raised $1,600,000 with very little self-funding.

Where each of these candidates has ran/represented can be seen below; along with the layout of the new Florida 19th.

Two additional candidates are running who have previously run outside of the state. Ola Hawatmeh previously ran for Congress in New York, but lost the Republican Primary in 2020. She’s raised $390,000. Finally, Linda Sawyer has run for Congress in Michigan, but lost primaries in 2020 and 2022. She’s only raised $10,000. Other candidates include John Strand, who’s raised $125,000, Mike Pedersen, who’s raised $70,000, and Greg Bukowski, who’s raised $20,000.

Only one candidate without out-of-state campaigns is a real force for the nomination.  Jim Schwartzel, who owns and operates a conservative radio station, has raised $1,000,000 and loaned his campaign another $1,000,000. Schwartzel has taken aim at his opponents, calling them “failed politicians from Chicago and New York (who) couldn’t get elected in their own state.” This message will have appeal with many voters, but it has been noted that the district is home to many transplants and out-of-state residents. That said, its one thing to have moved to Florida a few years ago when your just an average citizen. Its easy to see many residents being “wait why am I voting for an Illinois or New York or North Carolina politician?“

The race got a major update just a few days ago when Donald Trump announced he was endorsing Catalina Lauf. This move no doubt helps her advance past many of the other candidates with other state ties. However, Schwartzel has made it clear he is focused on giving longtime residents a voice in Congress. The race could very well be between the two of them.

The Democratic Primary

The Democratic Primary for this seat has three candidates running. It lacks any of the same excitement or cash as the Republican contest; which makes sense as the nominee has realistically no shot in the general. Howard Sapp has raised $50,000 for the race, Victor Arias has raised $45,000, and Robert Neeld has raised $15,000.

Congressional District 20 Republican & Democratic Primaries

Both parties have primaries for the new version of the 20th Congressional district, a plurality-Black seat that is located in North Broward County. However, only the democratic primary is important in this deep blue seat; and it is a scandalous primary thanks to the actions of Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, who has decided to carpetbag her way into this seat. I have actually covered the dynamics of this race twice in my newsletter. You can see my article where I look at the new seat and argue Schultz should not run here, and then I followed up after Schultz made the move. Those articles have far more details and data on the district and the race, so I will not make this section as long as I otherwise would. I’m going to hit the key points here but I recommend those articles for far more detail.

The Democratic Primary

The new version of the 20th district is plurality Black, but is majority Black among registered democrats. The seat stretches from downtown Ft Lauderdale and up into Deerfield Beach. The district is a descendant of the the old 20th, which included Black voters in Palm Beach. However, that old layout district was dominated by the Broward portion of the vote already. The district is now all Broward.

The district included many Black neighborhoods, but also several retiree communities and a handful of whiter suburbs. The district is also home to Wilton Manors, which has one of the largest LGBT populations per capita in the state. The retiree communities also have large Jewish populations, many retirees from the NY/NJ areas.

The former incumbent of the district Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who is running for the district. I said McCormick was the “former” incumbent because she actually resigned earlier this year. The resignation came as McCormick was indicted for financial fraud and was under investigation by the House Ethics committee. The main allegation is that McCormick’s healthcare company was overpaid $5,000,000 by FEMA for COVID vaccination efforts she was contracted to perform. Rather than correct the over-payment, McCormick used that money to self-fund his 2021 special election victory for the seat. Now under indictment, McCormick resigned the house, but made it clear she would run in the regular election. The gambit has left her a large pariah to most Democrats. She has only managed to raised $400,000 for her re-election.

Before McCormick even resigned, she already had a serious primary opponent. Young progressive activist Elijah Manley launched a primary to the Congresswoman last year. He has raised a total of $1,000,000 for his bid and generated a great deal of progressive support. Manley has run for office before in Broward, but never managed to win. However, he’s remained a major political figure in the central Broward region and has been a middle school teacher the last couple years. His biography highlights growing up in a poor household, dealing with homelessness as a child and food insecurity. Manley is also openly gay, making him part of a growing class of openly gay Black men running for office, something hard to imagine two decades ago. Manley is also open about his conversion to Judaism many years ago, highlighting how the religion gave him a place of acceptance and love. With the Israel/Gaza conflict dominating many south Florida Democratic Primaries, Manley has been anti-AIPAC and expressed horror at the Israeli Government’s actions, but also been vocal in condemning Hamas and any anti-Semitic attacks. A

Before redistricting, Manley was the clear strongest opponent to topple McCormick. However, even before redistricting, he didn’t have the race to himself forever. Businessman Luke Campbell, also known as “Uncle Luke” from the band 2 Live Crew, announced he would run in the primary as well. He’s raised $160,000 but his campaign has not generated as much attention. Campbell has considered a congressional run in 2024, but opted not to then. In addition, former Broward County commissioner Dale Holness has entered the primary. Holness is a developer-friendly politician that was a powerful force on the commission. He left the body to run for Congress in the 2021 special election, but lost to McCormick by just 5 RAW VOTES in a very divided field. Holness challenged McCormick in 2022 but lost in a landslide. His biggest issue is he has a strong loyal voting pool among Caribbean voters, who make up 23% of the district. Holness, who is of Jamaican heritage, however, had long struggled with non-Caribbean Black voters. He has raised $400,000 for his bid.

All of the above candidates could have had a spirited primary for the district. However, the redistricting process threw a wrench into those plans. Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz was drawn into the new version of the 22nd district (which I will discuss further in this article) – a seat that backed Biden by 3% in 2020 and Trump by 10% in 2024. Schultz could have run in that seat and given the party a well-funded incumbent to try and defend the district. Instead, the rumors swirled that she was considered running in the 20th. In my initial article on the new district (link at the start of this section) – I implored Schultz to not make the move. The worry is simple, that she is forgoing a tough general election fight to waltz into the 20th and win thanks to a split Black vote. Schultz has little overlap with the district; only ever representing fractions of it over her many years in Congress. As I saw it, and still do, running in the 20th is a carpetbagger move that screams cowardice. At the end of my initial article, I pleaded with her to not make that decision. I quoted wealthy businessman Ben Guggenheim, who famously refused a life boat seat at the Titanic sank, unwilling to take a seat for women and children.

“I am willing to remain and play the man’s game, if there are not enough boats for the women and children. I won’t die like a beast. Tell my wife I played the game out straight and to the end. No woman will be left on board this ship because Ben Guggenheim was a coward.”

Schultz had the chance to not be a coward and to stand and fight in the 22nd. Instead…..

Now Schultz is in the democratic primary for this seat and is easily the most well-funded candidate. In addition to $3,300,000 in her main account, she has massive outside spending from corporate PACs and AIPAC. She has taken tremendous heat from many Black elected officials and groups in Florida, and many democratic congressional leaders have stayed away from the race. Many allies of Schultz have kept quite rather than openly criticize her. Schultz insists she has always been a Black ally and said Broward will benefit from her seniority and experience in Washington. However, there is countless bitter feelings, understandably so.

So how will this primary shake out? The reality is Schultz could win, especially as the Black vote is divided. Manley is the strongest candidate with an ability to unite the Black vote. Campbell is less known, McCormick is toxic, and Holness has a limited base. However, efforts to unite in a “Stop Schultz” move were not successful. It also cannot be ruled out that Schultz will get Black votes, especially among older voters who likely do know more of her and broadly trust her. If Schultz wins, I actually hope it comes from significant Black votes. If Schultz wins with white votes and little Black vote, then its the most scandalous outcome. If someone other than Schultz wins, I project it will be Manley. Personally, I’m rooting for him. If you couldn’t tell already.

The Republican Primary

The Republican side of the primary for this seat has been totally overlooked, and for obvious reason. Regardless of the nominee for Democrats, no Republican is winning this seat. The most notable candidate is Rod Joseph, an African-American who previously has run as a Democrat in multiple races over the years, but never won a primary. He’s raised $100,000 and drew headlines for insisting no one can be born gay; something that sparked pushback from some of his own primary opponents. On that alone he will likely win the fraction of the district that is Republican voters. His opponents are Brent Andersen, who raised $60,000, Later Jones, who raised $10,000, and Carla Spalding, who raised $8,000. Spalding is another multi-time candidate.

Congressional District 21 Democratic Primary

Two Democrats are engaged in a serious primary for the right to take on Republican Congressman Brian Mast in the 21st Congressional district. The district backed Trump by 16% in 2024 and saw little change in the 2026 gerrymander. The seat includes St. Lucie and Martin Counties, plus the Jupiter portion of Palm Beach. Once a swing district, the enter region has trended to the right in the last decade. Despite this, two democrats running have raised solid cash for the uphill fight.

EMT/Firefighter Bernard Taylor raised $900,000 while veteran and Biden administration official James Martin has brought in $570,000. As the primary has evolved, Taylor has received support from progressive organizations. Martin, meanwhile, has the endorsement of Kamala Harris and is seen as the more moderate/establishment candidate.

Congressional District 22 Republican & Democratic Primaries

The 22nd Congressional district was radically reworked in the 2026 gerrymander. It is now a Frankstein style seat that links deep-red Collier County with the more Democratic-friendly Palm Beach and Broward. In the middle is empty Everglades land and rural Hendry County, which is 70% farm land. The seat narrowly backed Biden in 2020 but swung to Trump +10 in 2024.

While the seat clearly leans Republican, both parties see the seat as in play for November. Both sides have primaries for this seat, but it is the Republican side that has become nasty and expensive.

The Republican Primary

Seven Republicans are running for the nomination in this new district; and amazingly none are elected officials. Three candidates are running million-dollar campaigns largely thanks to self-funding, and a front-runner has been hard to peg. Third party PACs have also been involved in this contest with attack ads.

First up in Belinda Keiser, who has raised $300,000 but loaned her campaign $3,500,000. The Keiser name rings a bell if you are from South Florida, as Keiser University is a private college known for its advertising campaigns. I cannot tell you how many Keiser University ads I saw as a kid. Belinda married into the family; marrying Arthur Keiser, who founded the school with his mother, Evelyn Kesier, in 1977. The Keiser family have a good deal of money drama, which included Evelyn suing Arthur for fraud a theft, a suit Arthur settled. Both Arthur and Belinda have strong political connections in Florida, with Belinda serving on many boards and agencies under multiple Republican administrations; leading to her securing a large number of Republican endorsements. However, her long history of donating to candidates of both parties; including Democrats Alcee Hastings, Hillary Clinton, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, have become a major point of attack in the Republican Primary. These donations were initially an issue in 2018 when Keiser ran for the State Senate, but lost the GOP primary to Gayle Harrell by 10%. These donations have become a major issue in this primary as well, with Keiser attacked as a secret Democrat and has been called “Beijing Belinda” due to Keiser University’s operations in China.

Naples businessman Casey Askar has loaned his campaign $2,500,000 in his bid for the seat. This is Askar’s second run for Congress, as he ran for the Naples-based Congressional 19 back in 2020. That crowded race saw him come in third in a race ultimately won by Byron Donalds. Michael Carbonara, a businessman in finance and technology, has led to the pack in self-funding with $6,300,000; with a chunk of that coming from Bitcoin. Carbonara, who hails from Cooper City in Broward County, was initially running against Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the then-25th district, but opted for this race when redistricting wrapped up. Both Carbonara and Askar have attacked Keiser, who likely started with the highest name ID, for her donations to democrats. Kaiser and her allies have attacked both self-funders back, dubbing them the Dubai Duo over their businesses having some crossover/ties in the country. I guess the lesson is, if you ever want to run for Congress, make sure not a dime of your income goes outside the country’s borders.

The primary has been largely centered around the attacks between the three big self-funders. The most recent polling has all three in a statistical tie, but with no one past 15%. Meanwhile, former police officer and current real estate agent David Burck, who has raised $250,000, sits in 4th, but not far behind the frontrunners. I’d keep an eye just to see if he sneaks by thanks to everyone else nuking each-other. Rounding out the candidates are Terri Hasdorff, who has raised $30,000, Michael Thompson, who has raised $20,000, and Richard Evans, who has reported no money raised.

The Democratic Primary

Two democrats are facing off in the Democratic Primary. The overwhelming front-runner and presumptive nominee is Pia Dandiya, who as a former educator, White House employee, and Apple executive, has raised $2,300,000 for her race. Dandiya was initially running in the 21st district, but switched seats after the 2026 gerrymander, giving Democrats a strong candidate when Debbie Wasserman-Schultz took the coward’s way out and ran in the 20th. Trial attorney Kaysia Earley is also seeking the nomination, but has only raised $25,000. Everyone is treating this primary as a forgone conclusion, with the big question being which Republican Dandiya will face in November.

Congressional District 23 Republican & Democratic Primaries

The new version of the Florida 23rd district was drawn to be a Democratic vote-sink in Palm Beach County. This seat covers the city of West Palm Beach and down to the Delray/Boynton Beach communities. Democratic Congresswoman Lois Frankel is running for re-election in this Harris +14% seat.

Congresswoman Frankel has represented the Palm Beach area off an on for the last three and half decades; from a career spanning from State Legislature, then Mayor of West Palm Beach, and an election to Congress in 2012. Through this time she has never faced a serious electoral threat. Of the southeast Florida white Democratic members of Congress, Frankel was the official to luck out in getting the packed-in Democratic seat; avoiding the tough decisions that Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Jared Moskwitz were forced to make.

Frankel will easily be favored in the general election. However, she must first get past the Democratic Primary, where she is facing a challenge from her left.

The Democratic Primary

Congresswoman Frankel, who has raised $2,200,000 for her re-election bid, faces a challenge from progressive Victoria Doyle. An attorney and activist from the Lake Worth area, Doyle has raised $160,000 for her challenge and loaned her campaign another $325,000. Doyle is very much going at Frankel from the left and as a fresh face; highlighting Frankel’s long tenure in office and age – the Congresswoman is 78. Frankel has been attacked for her vote to express gratitude toward ICE and her reliance on corporate donations. While Frankel is overall a liberal/establishment vote in the caucus, Doyle has hit on key policy differences and argues that the a more aggressive and outspoken posture is needed in this political environment.

This primary has gotten far less attention and coverage than others in the state. My presumption is Frankel will likely prevail, as the district is older and less prone for a progressive insurgent challenge. However, if Doyle puts up a strong showing, it could indicate future struggles for Frankel. If Doyle prevails, it will be an unprecedented earthquake in Palm Beach politics.

The Republican Primary

Three Republicans are facing off for the right to take on Frankel or Doyle in the general. None of these candidates will have a realistic chance in what is now a Democratic vote-sink. The biggest fundraiser has been Deborah Adeimy, who has raised $100,000 and loaned herself another $50,000. Adeimy ran for Congress in 2022 and 2024, but lost the Republican primary both times. She faces Paola Branda, who has raised $25,000, and Mark Piper, who has reported no money raised.

Congressional District 24 Democratic Primary

The 24th Congressional district is a heavily Democratic and plurality Black seat that covers portions of Broward and Miami-Dade County. It was redrawn in the redistricting process, but retains its nature as a Black-access seat. The all-important Democratic Primary is likely to be over 70% Black.

Like the 20th district in central Broward, the district is home to a large Caribbean population. Haitian residents make up around 15% of the district; concentrated heavily in the North Miami community.

The district, and any of its variations, have been represented by Congresswoman Frederica Wilson since 2010. However Wilson announced in the summer of this year that she would not run for re-election. This led to a mad dash of candidates filing for the post. When qualifying was over, seven Democrats filed for the seat, and several of them are serious contenders. I wrote about this race in detail in this newsletter. I will cover key basics here, but I recommend that link for far more details.

Three prominent elected officials are running. First up is State Senator Shevrin Jones, who has represented a good portion of the district while in the legislature. Jones is an avowed progressive and also made history as the state’s first openly gay Black member of the State House. He then became Florida’s first openly gay State Senator in 2020. Jones has raised $280,000; which is less than many opponents, but he likely starts with the strongest name-ID and has been considered the front-runner; or at least one of them. The likely biggest threat Jones is County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert; who represents the Miami Gardens portion of the district. Gilbert is part of the Miami-Dade political establishment and has the endorsement of Congresswoman Wilson. He’s raised $800,000 thanks to big time checks. Former County Commissioner Jean Monestime, who served from 2010 to 2022, is also in the race. Monestime made history as the first Haitian-American chair of the Miami-Dade County Commission and represented the heavily Caribbean 2nd commission district. He’s raised $100,000.

You can see the electoral overlap of these elected officials below.

One of the most prominent non-elected officials running is Kendrick Meek Jr, who has raised a solid $660,000. Meek is the son of former Congressman Kendrick Meek Sr, who held the 24th until 2010 when he ran for the US Senate. Before then, Kendrick Meek Sr’s mother, Carrie Meek, represented the district from 1992 to 2002. Meek Jr is running to be the latest member of his family to serve in Miami-Dade. You can read more on that here. Meek is also openly gay, making the 24th notable for having two openly gay Black men running in the primary; both with paths to victory.

Attorney Rudolph Moise, who is of Haitian heritage, is also running for this seat; raising $250,000 and loaning another $400,000. Moise ran against Wilson in the 2010 and 2012 primaries, doing well with Haitian voters. However, with Monestime in the race, its unclear what support Moise will generate. Rounding out the candidates is Roderick Vereen, who’s raised $45,000, and Marshall Davis, who’s raised $15,000.

The race has seen plenty of attacks back and forth candidates and outside organizations. Gilbert has been hit hard for his support for Republicans in past races, including his endorsement of Republican Vicki Lopez in her re-election bid for a swing state house seat in 2024. Gilbert then sponsored the vote to have Lopez appointed to the county commission of Miami-Dade in 2025. This actually FLIPPED the Miami-Dade county commission to a Republican majority; and is a broad indictment of the pay-to-play good-ol-boy system of county politics. This has ensured Gilbert has massive sums of cash for his race. However, Gilbert has been attacked by third party mailers from what seems to be a crypto-funded organization that has ties to Kendrick Meek Sr; clearly working to aid his son.

An ugly turn hit the campaign in the last week as text messages have been sent out by third party groups that aim to make sure everyone knows Jones and Meek are openly gay. These messages are very much designed to hurt Jones and Meek with the socially conservative portion of the Black, and especially Caribbean, electorate. The same tactic was used against Jones, unsuccessfully then, in his state senate races. One set of texts targeted Jones only, and likely broke federal law by pretending it was from the pro-LGBT organization “Equality Florida.” The text claimed that Jones could not donate blood due to being HIV positive. Jones is not HIV positive. Equality Florida has pointed out this is a blatant attempt to hurt Jones with voters.

As you can see, the ad is meant to be pro-Jones, claiming he’s been discriminated against. This is the same type of attack, revolving around being unable to donate blood because he is gay, used in Jones’ previous races. It is a shameful and yet sadly common line of attack that Senator Jones has been forced to endure in his campaigns for public office.

The race has largely been seen as a battle between Jones and Gilbert, with Meek trailing back. However, with strong candidates and a split field, its always possible to see anyone emerge with a plurality. Jones, however, has been the modest front-runner from the start, and is the modest favorite to win. Even with the anti-gay attacks, those haven’t worked before, and hopefully won’t now.

Congressional District 25 Republican & Democratic Primaries

The new version of the 25th district hugs the Southeast Florida coast all the way from Boca Raton and down to Miami Beach. This snake-like seat was the final piece of the DeSantis 2026 gerrymander; drawn to collect as many Republican voters while side-stepping Democratic pockets. For this effort, the seat in question backed Trump by 9%. Notably, however, was Biden winning this same seat by 5% in 2020. Democratic Congresswoman Jared Moskowitz has announced he is running here after his original district was carved up. He currently represents much of the Palm Beach and northern Broward portions of the district.

The district swung 14 points to the right in 2024; driven largely by swings with Hispanic and Jewish voters in the area. The Jewish community here is very large. Estimates I have from America Votes peg this seat at right around 25% Jewish; by far the largest Jewish population of any Congressional district in the state. No district under the old map was this heavily Jewish.

Jewish communities are most prominent in Miami Beach, Aventura, Hollywood, and Boca Raton. Depending on the area, these can be more liberal-leaning Jewish retirees, middle-age suburban moderates, or more conservative Orthodox voters. For Democrats, winning as many of these voters as possible back toward the Democratic camp is instrumental for winning the seat in November. Congressman Moskowitz has argued he is the strongest candidate for this role. However, he faces a primary from his left. Meanwhile, Republicans have a big-money battle on their side as well.

The Democratic Primary

Congressman Jared Moskowitz is facing an aggressive primary from labor organizer Oliver Larkin in the Democratic Primary for this new seat. Larkin has raised $700,000 vs Moskowitz’s $2,900,000, but both candidates have seen outside money flow into the district, especially on behalf of Moskowitz. When all the cash is tallied up, this will come it at a large multi-million dollar contest. Larkin has attacked the Congressman as too conservative, centering on specific votes, views on Israel/Gaza, and corporate PAC money. Moskowitz has deliberately decided not to go negative and not really engage with the primary; instead focusing on his broadly left-of-center voting record and his electability in the district. Larkin, however, has painted an image of Moskowitz that is honestly far more of a parody than reality.

In recent ads, Larkin has called Moskowitz a “DeSantis Democrat” due to the fact the now-Congressman was appointed by Governor DeSantis twice. The context here is that Moskowitz, then a State Representative, was named by DeSantis in January 2019 to become the Director of Florida Division of Emergency Management. This appointment came at time when DeSantis was acting bipartisan (before he shifted to the far-right) and Moskowitz had built up a strong reputation for his role as a community and government leader after the Marjory Stoneman Douglas School Shooting in Parkland. In the wake of that tragedy, which took place in his community, Moskowitz was the leader of pushing gun control legislation through the Florida legislature. Moskowitz led the department, which is an a-political and administrative job, through the early spring of 2021. When COVID struck in 2020, and DeSantis began to steer to the right, Moskowitz remained the biggest pusher of masks and vaccines in the administration. Even as DeSantis moved against masks, Moskowitz pushed for them and changed his Twitter profile to Jared MASKowitz while still leading the agency. In early 2022, Moskowitz was appointed by DeSantis to fill that last 10 months of Broward Commissioner Barbara Sharief’s term when she resigned to run for Congress. During his tenure, he was a reliable Democratic vote on the body. Larkin has framed Moskowitz as a DeSantis ally, but that is not backed up by the history and I find it to be disingenuous. Moskowitz isn’t by any stretch a Republican ally, but as he said as he left the agency in 2021, “I vehemently disagree with Republicans on lots of stuff. I think they’re wrong. I don’t think they’re evil.”

While in Congress, Moskowitz has been a reliable Democratic vote on most issues and has made headlines for clashing with Republicans in committee meetings. He gets the most attention for his clashes with Trump administration officials or the Republican committee chairs. He drew coverage earlier this year when, in the middle of grilling Kristi Noem about ICE crimes, he wore a “Justice for Cricket” button – which was a reference to the dog Noem BRAGGED about killing in her memoir.

If you ask hardened Larkin fans, they will tell you Moskowitz is going to become a Republican any day. Well no one in the Democratic party thinks that, and frankly I don’t think any Republicans want that. While Moskowitz has said he doesn’t consider Republicans evil, he is not remotely above trolling them.

However, Moskowitz is not above working with Republicans, and his voting record has given the left, even myself, things to be annoyed with. One of the most notable issues was voting for the Laken Riley Act, a hard-line immigration law that many of the YES votes from the Democratic caucus have come to regret. Moskowitz also angered many when he voted to censure Al Green when the Democratic Congressman rightly called out Trump during a speech before the US Congress. Here is where Moskowitz’ style is at greatest clash with the increasingly left-wing Democratic base. His acceptance of corporate PAC money has also been a major flash point. Moskowitz is being aided by major money third-party PACs, something Larkin has used on the campaign trail. Moskowits is not a leftist by any means, nor does he claim to be one.

On Israel, Moskowitz has been a firm ally of the nation, something that grows increasingly unpopular in the country as the far-right government there engages in what is at best a policy of complete indifference to civilian deaths. Moskowitz has been a firm supporter of a two-state peace plan; but that broader long-term view has become insufficient in the wake of the ever increasing death toll among civilians in Gaza and increasing attacks by settlers in the West Bank. Larkin has hit Moskowitz on the very fair critique of taking money from AIPAC. Larkin has maintained his opposition on Israel is not anti-Semitic, but Moskowitz has gone after Larkin for not condemning anti-Semitism on the campaign trail. While Larkin has not made any anti-Semitic statements, as best I can find, Larkin has campaigned with Hasan Piker (who I for the record have attacked as a pro-Russia and pro-China lunatic many times before) and who has absolutely taken legit critique of Israel (I have many) and bled into anti-Semitism and hostility to the nation even existing. Larkin has instead he won’t tolerate anti-Semitism but refused distance himself from what some of his surrogates say. Moskowitz has hence refused to even sit in a room with Larkin over issues of anti-Semitism. This led to the Miami Herald agreeing to do separate interviews, where they then endorsed Moskowitz. The Sun Sentinel refused separate interviews and endorsed no one.

Ask anyone about this primary and you’d here either man could win the race. Dueling internal polls are out there, one with Moskowitz up 30%+ and a Larkin internal that has the race within 2%. Larkin’s biggest hurdle for any primary upset is going to be age. This an OLD district. Among the registered Democrats, 43% are over 65, and a total of 67% are over the age of 50. These are voters by and large Moskowitz is likely to be stronger with; Jewish or not. While I think internal polls across the board should be taken with a grain of salt, there is more reason for me to believe Moskowitz will prevail just because of the electorate.

The Republican Primary

While the Democratic primary for this district has generated the most attention, the Republicans have an expensive five-way primary to see who will go on to the general. George Moraitis, a former State Representative, has raised $800,000 and loaned another $100,000. Scott Singer, the former mayor of Boca Raton, has raised $1,500,000 and loaned another $700,000. Dan Franzese, a businessman who has run for Congress against Lois Frankel in 2022 and 2024, has raised $200,000 and loaned another $1,300,000. Raven Harrison, who ran for Congress in Texas a few years ago, has raised $250,000 and loaned another $500,000. Finally, Joe Kaufman, who has run for Congress multiple times over the last 15 years, recently losing to Moskowitz in 2024, has raised $600,000.

The primary has become especially negative between Singer and Franzese. Singer has targeted Franzese for multiple lost campaigns and being a carpetbagger into the district. Franzese, meanwhile, has has drawn condemnation for an attack he laid against Singer in just the last couple weeks. The attack is over the simple fact that Singer, while Mayor of Boca Raton, attended a Mosque for an event that came in the wake of the a New Zealand mosque being shot up by a white supremacist. It also goes on to attack Singer for his proclamation for Muslim American Heritage Day; an attack that of course leaves out Singer made similar proclamations for Jewish Heritage, Hispanic Heritage, and any number of events that mayors topically proclaim. The add relies on Islamophobia that runs rampant in Republican circles; and sadly many Democratic circles as well.

While its possible either man could advance, Moraitis is also a strong conntender for the primary. He has several liberal-leaning votes, like in-state tuition for “Dreamers” that have been used against him in the primary. Kaufman is an outside shot thanks to name ID, and his 2024 primary win was an upset, so he could repeat that here.

Congressional District 27 Republican & Democratic Primaries

Republican Congresswoman Maria Salazar is trying to hold on to her majority-Hispanic district in Miami-Dade County. The seat was a near tie in 2020, but swung to Trump +14% in 2024. The district saw virtually no change in the 2026 redistricting process. While Salazar is a strong incumbent, Democrats are making a major play for the seat. Hispanic voters have been swinging away from Republicans since 2024, which saw Miami Democrats flip the Mayor’s office last year. Salazar has tried to distance herself from the Trump administration, calling many of his immigration actions “un-American.” However, this is clear electoral calculus, as she has done nothing concrete to force the issue and remains a reliable vote in the House for the narrow GOP majority. Two Democrats are running to challenge Salazar, who also has a primary of her own.

The Republican Primary

In the Republican Primary for this seat, attorney Michael Arias has opted to primary Salazar. Unlike other primaries to Republican incumbents, this is not a primary from the right. Instead, Arias expresses more pro-immigrant views; namely allowing “Dreamers” to remain and not ending Temporary Protection Status for both Venezuela’s and Haitians. He has also called out Salazar for bragging about funding projects that were passed by Democrats and that she actually voted against. Arias is clearly aiming at Salazar as “just another politician.” His campaign has actually been endorsed by the Miami Herald – with them noting Salazar would not meet for endorsement interviews. Arias, who has raised just $130,000, is very unlikely to prevail over Salazar, who is no doubt looking toward the general. However, it does feel like many of his backers are not guaranteed to go to her in the general.

The Democratic Primary

Two democrats are running for the right to take on Salazar in the upcoming general election. Democrats scored a big recruitment get when former CBS Miami News anchor Eliott Rodriguez entered the race. Rodriguez is well known in the Miami area for his years in the news business, and previous campaigns across the country have shown that news anchors and reporters, namely for local/regional programs, are often very trusted by voters. Salazar herself was once a journalist before she entered Congress, which would make the Rodriguez vs Salazar race a unique contest as a battle of local news/journalism figures. Rodriguez has raised $600,000 for his bid, but already started the race with strong name ID.

While Rodriguez would have been seen as the guaranteed nominee a few months ago, prosecutor Robin Peguero has given Rodriguez a real run for his money. A former prosecutor of January 6th insurrectionists, Peguero has ran a serious campaign and raised over $1,000,000 for his bid. Peguero has brought in many Florida and national Democratic endorsements. The two campaigns have different styles; with Peguero running a more aggressive “fight Trump” energy and Rodriquez running on being a trusted longtime figure in the community.

Rodriguez likely remains the front-runner for the nomination thanks to being a well-known figure before even entering the race. However, Peguero has run a very strong campaign and if he pulls off an upset it could show that Democrats are responding much more to being aggressive than they are to familiar faces. The question in the general would be, can Peguero translate that for a win in a seat that still did swing to the right. Rodriguez, from my perspective, is likely still the stronger general election candidate. However, Salazar could be vulnerable no matter what. A mass Hispanic swing against the GOP will sink alot of Republicans regardless of who the Democratic nominees are.

CONCLUSION

My previews for statewide and State legislative races are in the works!