It is less than 24 hours before the Florida polls close and I am finally getting my state house ratings out. This article is going to keep things short by only talking about the races I’ve possible to flip. Safe Districts will not be discussed here. Let’s waste no time and dive in.
The State House
The Florida House map passed in 2022 can be seen below. It has 71 Trump seats and 49 Biden seats. I’ve covered the partisan details in this article here.
The 2022 midterm, as I’ve documented before, was a very bad night for Florida Democrats. Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio swept several Biden seats, leading to several likely Democratic seats to elect Republican representatives. I covered the 2022 races here.
Across many districts, turnout was the biggest issue. I cover the 2022 turnout problems Democrats had in this breakdown. As you can see below, every House seat saw Republicans get a higher % of their voters out than Democrats.
When all the results came in, Democrats were down to 35 seats.
Since then, Democrats flipped House District 35 in a January special election. I’ll talk more about that race further down. With 36 seats, Democrats need to gain 5 more to break the super-majority Republicans hold in the chamber.
The Ratings
Democrats have far less money or resources than Republicans do. With the Presidential race an afterthought here and a super-charged Republican machine, Democrats are not aiming at flipping all the Biden seats. The party has instead focused heavily on flipping the most likely seats they can take this cycle.
Looking at the partisan lean of the districts, where candidates have raised decent money, and where the parties are involved, I have lined up these seats as the ones worth watching the most.
How the ratings look on the map can be seen below.
I currently have 3 Republican-held seats marked as Lean or Likely Democratic flips, and three Republican-held seats as tossups. Breaking the super-majority is in the cards. With that, let me dive into the specifics.
Tossup Races
Lets start with tossups.
House District 91
Located in Boca Raton, House District 91 is a major battleground this year, just like it was two years ago. This district voted for Biden by 4.5%. However, amid the 2022 red wave, the district voted for Ron DeSantis by 9 points. That same day, Democratic candidate Andy Thomas lost to now-Representative Peggy Gossett-Seidman (R) by 3.5%.
Democrats are running first time candidate attorney Jay Shooster, who has raised an impressive $800,000 for the run, outpacing Gossett-Seidman by over 2-1 in money. Shooster’s biggest obstacle to flipping the seat is that registration has trended more Republican in recent years, giving the GOP a narrow lead registration (35% to Democrats 32%). Independents will be a key decider here. Right now the vote cast in the district is GOP +2 and with 28% of the vote being NPAs. The could increase their lead in the vote cast, but it likely will not be by much. As such, we are looking at independents being kingmakers here. Shooster has run hard on the state’s anti-abortion legislation. While Gossett points out her voting against the 6-week abortion ban, she does support the 15 week ban that has limited exemptions. With Amendment 4 expected to easily pass in this liberal-minded district (who’s GOP strength comes from rich folks) – it remains to be seen if voters will opt to ticket split as much. This race should be close.
House District 38
This race is a rematch from 2022. Incumbent David Smith, who will be in his last term if he wins, faces Democratic challenger Sarah Hendry, a non-profit director. These two squared off for this Biden +8 seat, which covers southern Seminole County.
The 2022 contest was a race I initially pegged as Leaning Democratic. However, the Democratic collapse that year saw Rubio win the district by 3% and DeSantis by 7%. Henry would lose by 4.6%. Now the two find themselves in a rematch.
The big benefit for Henry is that turnout is much better this time. In 2022, the GOP had a 14% turnout advantage, allowing them to lead by votes cast by 5%. Right now, the GOP lead in votes cast is just 1%, and the super voters outstanding narrowly lean Democratic. We are looking at a much more Democratic electorate than last time. This means Smith needs to rely on his incumbency and name-ID. Both candidates have raised hundreds of thousands for this contest, with Smith outpacing Henry. If it wasn’t for the fact Smith was a multi-term incumbent with a strong warchest, I’d again rank this as Lean Democratic. I expect Harris to win the district. The question will be if Smith can outperform.
House District 113
Down in Miami and Key Biscayne, freshman Republican State Representative Vicki Lopez is running for re-election in this Biden +11 seat. In a story you have heard before, terrible turnout in 2022 led to Rubio and DeSantis win this district, and Lopez pulling an upset by 2% that year. This is a majority Hispanic seat with a Cuban population centered in its west end of the district. Lopez is being challenged by Jacqueline ‘Jackie’ Gross-Kellogg.
This race would be a prime pickup opportunity, but it is mired in internal drama and complicated partisan dynamics.
First, lets discuss the data of the seat. When the district backed Biden in 2020, his 11 point win was EIGHTEEN points lower than Clinton had won it by in 2016. Since then, registration has tilted more to the Republicans, giving them a 1 point lead over Democrats, but with 40% of voters registered as NPAs. At this point I’d expect Harris to slide below Biden numbers, though how much remains to be seen. Republican turnout is currently 3 points higher than Democrats, but there are outstanding super-voter democrats who could turn out. Still on paper this is anyone games, though I think it being Biden +11 overinflates its likelihood to flip.
The other issue at play in the seat is internal politics. Lopez has secured support from prominent local Democrats, namely County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert III. Initially, Democratic Jenny Lee Molina, who worked for Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, had filed for the race against Lopez. However, Molina withdrew within hours. Whether there was pressured to drop out has rocked progressive blogs for months. Accusations abound, some maybe true, others exaggerated. If you know nothing about Miami-Dade politics, know its an insane web – very similar to New York City in many ways.
Jacqueline ‘Jackie’ Gross-Kellogg‘s candidacy gave the party someone to run against Lopez, but she has struggled to raise serious funds. She has not cracked $100,000 while Lopez has raised $500,000 just in her official campaign account. Due to the data being iffy on if the district will stay as blue, and due to whatever internal drama has gone on, this race has not been seen as one of the guarantee pickups. Democratic investment in seats to break the super majority do not focus on 113. While the local drama likely plays a roll, the other major issue is the potential right-wing swing of the seat and the expensive media market the district resides in.
Just in the last couple weeks, however, Lopez has become embroiled in a scandal around using legislation to enrich her family. As a result, the Miami Herald rescinded its endorsement of her. This is a very weird race, and honestly something I might revisit post-election to try and figure out what actually went on.
Lean Democratic Seats
On to the Leaning seat
House District 35
Back in January of this year, Democrats FLIPPED house District 35, a Hispanic-access district in central Florida. In the special election, Democrat Tom Keen defeated School Board member Erika Booth. I wrote about this flip here.
Now in November, the two are engaged in a rematch. This district, which looks large but actually has 80% of its vote coming from Orange County, voted for Biden by 5 points.
The district is nearly divided between Republicans, Democrats, and independents. Turnout looks good for both parties and no 2022-style disaster, where Democratic turnout was 13% lower in the district, appears on the horizon. On top of this, when Keen won in January, he did so with Republican’s outpacing Democrats. Keen’s win came thanks to very strong independent backing and crossover Republican support. In a rematch with Booth, there is little reason to think this will change.
House District 37 (FLIP!)
One of the State House seats most likely to flip into Democratic hands on Tuesday is House District 37 – a seat based out of Southern Seminole County and North Orange. This seat, which includes the University of Central Florida, backed Biden by 11 points in 2020.
In the 2022 elections, Republicans and special interest groups spent over $2,000,000 to oust LGBT liberal Democrat Carlos Guillermo Smith. Republicans recruited Susan Plasencia, the sister of the popular outgoing Rep Rene Plasencia, to run for the seat. With turnout at UCF being a major issue, Smith lost by 3.8% as Charlie Crist lost to Ron DeSantis by 5%. That year Republicans maintained an 11% turnout advantage and 4% lead in votes cast – with NPA voters who showed up being less students and more moderate suburbanites. The Smith loss was a perfect representation of how bad things had gotten for Democrats in 2022.
Two years later, things feel very different. Carlos Smith, first off, has already won overlapping State Senate District 17 unopposed. In this house seat, Democratic candidate Nate Douglas, a young UCF graduate who was elected to the Orange County Soil and Water Board, has blown past Plasencia in fundraising. Douglas, an LGBT man of color, has taken Plasencia to task for voting with Republicans on culture war issues, like voting for legislation that dismantled UCF’s diversity, equity and inclusion programs. Plasencia has responded to critique with dismissive language – “Nate is a nice kid, but he’s following the same radical playbook the voters rejected two years ago by trying to create a controversy where one doesn’t exist.”
Plasencia does not seem to appreciate or care that her district is only in GOP hands thanks to the money and turnout issues of 2022. This time around, Douglas has outraised Plascencia by over $450,000 to $300,000. Major third party efforts to aid Plasecnia are far less than the previous election. It seems clear to me the Republicans do not expect this is a likely hold.
This is a race where college students are being heavily targeted to ensure no mistakes from 2022 are repeated. Right now the Republicans hold just a 1% lead in votes cast, but oustanding supervoters lean Democratic. On top of this, many of the UCF students are part of the 28% of the vote that is currently NPA. Democrats in the area are working hard to turn out as many students as possible. No one on the Douglas side is taking this flip for granted.
House District 45 (FLIP)
House District 45 is a Biden +5 seat, covering southwestern Orange County and part of Northwest Osceola. Republican Incumbent Carolina Amesty is running for re-election. The district is also home to Disney World!
The district is very similar to the old HD44, which was held by Democrat Geraldine Thompson from 2018 to 2022. Amesty won an open race in the 2022 midterm as a GOP turnout advantage of 9% allowed Rubio to win the district by 5% and DeSantis by 8%; with Amesty winning by 7%. With Republicans narrowly improving their registration lead over Democrats, and on track to outpace Democrats in vote cast, Amesty should have a good chance to hold on. However, two things work against her.
First, while Republicans have around a 5,000 voter lead right now, there are over 20,000 independents who’ve already cast ballots. These independents often can lean left in this part of Florida. The district’s Republicans are also the type of voters to balk against Trump’s MAGA movement. Expect to see Rick Scott overperform Trump here. This should be a Harris district tomorrow.
Second, Amesty is in legal hot water right now. In the summer, it was revealed by an investigative report that Amesty had falsly notarized documents relating to the Christian school she runs. The documents stem from efforts to claim hired employees that apparently did not work there. Amesty threatened to sue the paper over the story, but that never happened. She has since been indicted for forgery. Amesty denies the charges and is continuing with the campaign. However, support from the GOP has been middling, with Amesty hardly raising the funds most incumbents bring in. Republicans have spent some money attacking her opponent, Democrat, former Disney executive Leonard Spencer. DeSantis’ feud with Disney has taken a center stage in this campaign; with Amesty backing DeSantis on his moves against the company.
With Amesty’s legal trouble, she had weak fundraising, brining in just $100,000 to Spencer’s $85,000. Spencer also has over $200,000 in in-kind help from the Florida Democratic House campaign, while Amesty has little additional help. In a suburban seat like this one, its easy to see voters splitting their tickets, voting Harris, Scott, and then Spencer.
House District 106 (FLIP)
When this election cycle is over, and assuming I am not moving to Ireland or Ukraine because the evil man won, I need to revisit the entire race for House District 106. This Biden +10 seat covers the Northeast Coast of Miami-Dade. Its biggest population center is Miami Beach. Incumbent Republican Fabian Basabe won the district in 2022 amid he red wave. He only became the nominee in a chaotic 3-way primary, and was very much not the favorite in that contest.
The district has been Democratic for a long time. A mix of liberal whites, moderate Hispanics (not many Cuban voters), and Jewish voters. However, even as Biden won the district by 10% in 2020, this was well-down from Clinton’s 29% margin in 2016. Biden lost ground with Hispanic and Jewish voters in the district that year.
Jewish voters in the district are also not a unified group. There are some liberal retirees, some conservative Orthodox Jewish residents, a sizeable Hispanic Jewish population. I discussed this more in my 2020 retrospective on Florida. Even with all this, the seat was expected to remain Democratic in 2022. However, it flipped red; electing Fabian Basabe to the post by the narrowest of mrgins. Basabe is a former socialite, who no joke was dubbed the “male Paris Hilton,” and reality TV star who has self-funded over $200,000 for his first run.
Basabe is a bonkers state representative. His very-narrow win in 2022 was very much due to the red wave that occurred in the state and a major conservative swing with the large NPA population. Basabe is self-described as LGBT, has been married to a woman since 2005, and voted for the expansion of Don’t Say Gay. He is hated by the LGBT community. His voting record has not been moderate considering he is in a solidly Biden district. He is also subject to a lawsuit from former male aids alleging sexual harassment. That lawsuit also details an aid saying they witnessed Basabe sexually assault a third party not named in suit. In just the last few weeks, Basabe has come under fire as it turns out police in LA are investigating a claim of rape that the Representative may have committed 20 years ago. Then in August, Basabe barely beat a low-funded primary challenger with just 62% of the vote – a very poor showing against what was basically just a name on a ballot. It showed clear dislike of his antics.
Basabe faces off against Joe Saunders, who grew up in the area but is actually best known for being elected one of Florida’s first Gay State Representatives when he was elected to a seat in ORLANDO in 2012. He has united Democratic Party support.
Saunders is hitting Basabe hard not only on his ethical scandals but also his voting record. Basabe has claimed to be a moderate but he has been a constant defender of the legislature and either skipped voting on or voted for several contentious right-wing bills. Meanwhile, a further scandal emerged in the district when Joe Saunders’ estranged aunt, Maureen Saunders Scott, opted to run for the district despite living in the Jacksonville area. The sordid family drama, while I’ll link here and not get bogged down in because its a mess, stems from a break. Scott tried to file for the race as “Moe Saunders” – a clear effort to confuse voters. A court ruled she can only appear as “Mo Saunders Scott” on the ballot. She is unlikely to make a major difference in the race.
Everything says Basabe should lose on Tuesday. However, there has been plenty of debate within political circles about the race. Turnout is a problem in Miami-Dade, but its holding fairly well in the 106th, with Democrats likely to outpace Republicans in votes cast. However, the NPA vote has swung more to the right, and how Harris does in the seat remains to be seen. Basabe should lose, but its not a lock. I feel like Basabe either wins by 2% or loses by 20%. He has more loss scenarios than win, at least in my eye.
Lean Republican Seats
Onward!
House District 36
Covering northern Seminole County, House District 36 voted for Joe Biden by 4%. Incumbent Republican Rachel Plakon is aiming to hold the seat. In 2022, she won the seat after he husband, Scott Plakon, was termed out.
Plakon is on paper vulnerable. The district leans blue and Plakon is not a very moderate vote in the legislature; notably voting for the 6-week abortion ban. However, the Plakon name has some heft in this area. Plakon won by 9% in 2022 while Rubio won the district by 7% and DeSantis by 11%. Even if the district reverts back to leaning Democratic amid better turnout, Plakon is better positioned. She has raised over $300,000. Her Democratic opponent Kelley Diona Miller, has only managed to raise around $50,000. Republicans see this as one of the better hold opportunities in Seminole. Democratic organizations, meanwhile, are much more focused on flipping seats like 37 and 38.
If Plakon falls, its a sign of a very good night for Democrats in the Orlando area.
House District 65
Over in the Tampa Bay, Republicans are trying to defend this Biden +4 seat. The district covers the South Tampa and Westchase communities. It is being defended by Republican Incumbent Karen Gonzalez Pittman, who is facing off against Democrat Ashley Brundage. If Brundage wins the race, she would be Florida’s first Transgender lawmaker in history!
I won’t even pretend I’m not biased here. I want Brundage to win. However, it is a tougher fight than the top-of-the-ticket indicates. This seat has a strong history of down-ballot Republican strength. On top of that, thanks to Republican registration gains, the GOP has 39% of registered voters to 30% for Democrats. This could mean the district will only narrowly back Harris or won’t at all. I cannot be sure. Its population of suburban-upper-income Republicans also might be welling to break from Trump, but won’t be for the rest of the party.
Republicans have engaged in plenty of sleezy attacks on Brundage, so they clearly are somewhat nervous. They have run mailers that claim Brundage only cares about being the first transgender lawmakers, clearly trying to weaponize her identity against her. This also ran a nasty mailer attacking her and comparing her to a “Hurricane” – a mailer that dropped just as Hurricane Helene was threatening the region.
I am of course rooting for Brundage, who has pulled in around $200,000 to run a well-funded race. However, if she loses, I will likely peg it much more on the registration gap and down-ballot GOP strength than anything else.
Likely Democratic Seats
For “Likely Seats” I am going to keep the coverage very short.
House 47 is the lone GOP-held seat I have marked as Likely Democratic. This Biden +13 seat is based in Central Florida’s Puerto Rican community.
In 2022, this district was seen a clear Democratic gain. However, the horrid turnout in the region led to an electorate that was much whiter and conservative than the registration. Incumbent Republican Paula Stark is on track to lose to Democrat Maria Revelles. This is the lowest of hanging fruit for Democrats. If it does not flip, something went very wrong.
House District 60 covers southeastern Pinellas county and voted for Joe Biden by 12 points. Democrat Lindsay Cross is on track to best St Petersburg City Councilman Ed Montanari, who has given the GOP a strong candidate. However, the nothing in the data says this won’t remain firmly Democratic.
House District 89 is a Hispanic seat covering central Palm Beach County. It voted for Biden by 19% but thanks to terrible Hispanic turnout it went to DeSantis in 2022. Republican Daniel Zapata has raised $74,000 for his bid and has gotten some Republican party help. Democrats nominated Debra Tendrich, who has raised $80,000. In 2022 the GOP has a 15% turnout advantage, and that does not appear to be replicating this year. This should be a double-digit Harris seat, even if its down from the 19% margin. It should remain in Democratic hands.
House District 93 covers the Wellington portion of Palm Beach. This Biden +11 seat had a 10% GOP turnout advantage in 2022 and narrowly backed Ron DeSantis. Right now, however, Democratic turnout is holding strong. While Republican Anne Gerwig has raised an impressive $200,000 – it likely will not be enough to toppled Democrat Katherine Waldron, who won her first term the same day DeSantis flipped the seat.
Likely Republican Seats
In House District 22, a gerrymandered house seat that pairs part of Gainesville with rural Levy and Gilchrist counties, Republicans are on pace to hold the seat. Republicans nominated Levy County Commissioner Chad Johnson while Democrats nominated former Gainesville commissioner David Arreola. Both candidates have raised solid funds, and student turnout around the University of Florida is something to watch. However, registration leans much more Republican and many of those are rural conservatives.
House District 39 is a Biden +1 seat in western Orange County. On paper it is competitive, but the race has taken a backseat to other better flip opportunities for Democratic. Republican incumbent Doug Bankson has far outpaced Democrat Marsha Summersill in fundraising; with her only bringing in $40,000. If this seat does flip, its a sign of a big suburban rebellion against the Florida GOP.
House District 94 is the site of an expensive race. Republican Meg Weinberger and Democrat Rachelle Litt have both spent 6-figures in the contest for this large western Palm Beach seat. The seat voted for Biden by just 0.1%, but since then registration got 8% more Republican. Like the 39th, a Democratic win here would mean a very good showing across many other seats.
House District 100 is a coastal Broward County seat voted for Joe Biden by 1%. However, Republican Incumbent Chip LaMarca is a very strong incumbent who has fended off several serious challengers. Democrat James Brenner has raised $100,000 – but this likely won’t be enough to fend off LaMarca.
Final Notes
We will see how the races go tomorrow. Democrats have a good shot to break the super-majority. Lets see if the odds land in their favor.