(Note: This article was originally published in Politico Florida in 2015. Wayback machine link is here).
Matthew Isbell is a Democratic data consultant who will be providing exclusive analysis for POLITICO Florida over Florida’s two-week special redistricting session. He has become a well-known redistricting expert, drawing his own maps and offering in depth analysis on the process.
Last week he analyzed the possibilities for the current session, a “major flaw” in Central Florida, and the potential configurations for the 26th District.
What follows is Isbell’s breakdown of the implications of the Lee amendment:
Last week I wrote that the Florida Legislature’s base map did a disservice to Hispanics in Central Florida by dividing them between the 9th, 10th, and 7th districts. In the 9th district, under the base map, the Hispanic share of the 2014 Democratic Primary stands at only 21%. The district could be as high as 31% if the old 9th district boundaries from 2012 were used. This is an issue that needs rectifying.
The map below shows the Hispanic share of the 2014 Democratic primary by precinct for Polk, Orange, and Osceola. The 2014 primary saw a higher share Hispanics than 2012, hence I am using that data. As the Hispanic population grows rapidly in Central Florida, the Hispanic share of the vote is likely to rise each cycle.
The map shows the lines of the 9th, 7th, and 10th going through Hispanic pockets of votes, diluting their influence in each district.
Senator Tom Lee, however, was able to pass an amendment in the Senate redistricting committee that changes the boundaries in Central Florida and in the Southwest. The changes in the Orange/Osceola region are much better for Hispanic voters. The 9th takes in more Hispanics from the 10th and loses other heavily-white areas in Polk.
The changes are not perfect. Several Hispanic pockets still reside in the 7th. However, the new Hispanic numbers are much better compared to the base map. Hispanics make up 26% of the Democratic Primary in the 9th under this configuration.
The figures below show the 2014 Democratic Primary in the 9th and 10th under the Base Map and the Lee Amendment.
Under the Lee amendment, the 9th is now a minority coalition district. 26% of the 2014 primary is Hispanic, 20% African-American, and another 5% from other racial makeups. The white share of the primary falls below 50%. Meanwhile, the 10th is still a coalition seat, with the white share of the primary only rising from 32% to 34%. The addition of part of Lake County make the district slightly more Republican, but still solidly in the Democratic column, giving Obama 58%.
The Lee amendment creates another coalition district in Central Florida, driven more by Hispanics, while the 10th is driven by African-Americans. For a region with such population diversity, this proposal is a drastic improvement from the base map.