State of the Race
Nevada will feature a large number of highly contested primaries on June 12th. Primaries for Governor, Congress, and Senate will get the bulk of media coverage. However, a primary for Nevada’s 36th State House district is on track to be the one of the nastiest primaries of the cycle in Nevada. This race features a moderate incumbent Republican vs a brothel owner.
The 36th house district is a large rural seat based around Nye County – to the west of Las Vagas.
The district includes Northern portions of Clark (much of which is underpopulated), half of Lincoln County, and most of Nye County. Nye is the largest block of votes in the district and the overwhelming share of the county’s population is in Pahrump – located on the southeast end of the county. The 36th is a very conservative district where the Republican primary is tantamount to election. The incumbent is James Oscarson, a moderate Republican who has held the seat since 2013. Oscarson has angered conservatives with his moderate voting record, but especially for his vote in 2015 to raise taxes.
Politics of HD36
House District 36 a solid GOP district. Democratic votes are heavily concentrated in Clark County, while the rural regions are deep red. Trump won the district with 64% of the vote. The only non-Clark precinct Clinton won was a Native-American aligned area in North Nye County.
The same day, the district voted on two very contentious ballot measures. The first measure established background checks on all gun sales, including private ones. The measure was very unpopular outside of Clark County and failed in the district.
Meanwhile, a measure to legalize marijuana in the state actually narrowly passed in the district. The measure secured 50.4% of the vote, taking Clark and Nye county statewide.
The pot vote reflects the more libertarian mind of the district, especially Nye county. Nye is a very conservative region but its more based in libertarianism than religion. How each precinct voted on both amendments is seen below.
Pot polled better than background checks in almost every precinct in the district. It polled the most over background checks in Nye County.
Lincoln County saw pot outperform background checks as well but not as far as Nye did. In general Lincoln is more conservative than Nye thanks to a larger Mormon population in its borders.
The Mormon population keeps Lincoln against both pot and background checks and deep red. The county is not as libertarian-minded as Nye for this reason. This is also why there are no brothels allowed in the county. It should also be noted rural mormons like those in Nye are less #NEVERTRUMP than those in Utah. That said Lincoln did vote Cruz over Trump 45%-29% while Nye backed Trump 56%-23%. In addition, Lincoln was Romney’s best county in the 2012 Nevada caucuses. Nye, meanwhile, backed Ron Paul.
Lincoln’s conservatism is more influenced by a religion than Nye; which is more libertarian-minded. This of course is a major generalization. There are religious conservatives in Nye and Libertarians in Lincoln. But it seems clear these counties have different major influences.
Oscarson’s 2016 Re-Election
Oscarson’s vote for the 2015 tax/education bill resulted in him receiving conservative challengers in 2016. The 2015 legislation in question raised taxes to further fund education. It was a major priority of Republican Governor Sandoval – a staunch moderate. When the legislation passed it did so with Democrats and most Republicans backing the measure. GOP leadership backed the proposal and only very conservative members (think Tea Party types) voted no. In a district like the 36th, which has a strong conservative and libertarian bent, voting for the tax plan was seen as a major betrayal.
Oscarson was primaried by two Republicans in 2016 thanks to his tax/education bill vote. Tina Trenner, his main opponent, made the race about taxes and pledging to push for repeal. Trenner was endorsed by the Nye County Republican party. In the GOP primary, Nye makes up around 70% of the primary vote. Oscarson raised over $200,000 compare to Trenner’s $10,000. Despite the lopsided money, Oscarson barely held on, securing 46% of the vote.
Oscarson lost Nye County but thanks to a dominating performance in Clark he managed to hold on.
Oscarson then went into the general election to face off against Dennis Hoff, the brothel owner from the HBO show ‘Cathouse,’ who was running under the libertarian banner. No democrat filed. Hof had originally considered running in a Reno-based State Senate seat, but opted to run further south in HD36. Hof ran an aggressive race against Oscarson, hammering the incumbent for his moderate voting record.
In the end, Oscarson held on with 61% of the vote.
The question some have asked is if Hof’s votes came from Democrats as they voted to reject the Republican on their ballot. Data says not especially. Among the precincts to back Clinton, Oscarson carried 63%, higher than his district-wide total. Meanwhile, precincts 20-30% for Clinton only gave Oscarson 57% of the vote. Oscarson actually did do very well in the most GOP precincts, several of which were in Lincoln County. Hof did win places like Duckwater in Nye County, a Dem-leaning native-american precinct; that vote surely being a protest. However, its also worth noting Hof ran aggressively to the right of Oscarson. Overall I’d say Hof did get some Dem protest votes, but far more of his votes were from angry conservatives.
The 2018 Primary
Hof has challenged Oscarson for the GOP nomination this time and the race has been especially nasty. The profiles of both candidates are quiet different. Oscarson runs as a moderate and defends his 2015 vote on the tax and education bills. Hof, meanwhile, pledges no new taxes and embraces the same combative style as Donald Trump. Hof has actually been nicknamed the “The Trump of Parhump” by Roger Stone. Hof has bashed Oscarson as a closet Democrat and a pawn of the party bosses. Oscarson, meanwhile, as aggressively gone after Hof for his sleazy imagine; often calling him a “pimp.” Oscarson appears to thread a needle where he doesn’t outright critique prostitution, but rather Hof’s role in specifically.
Hof’s billboards dot Nye County. He posts billboard with him and his gun, pledging to defend the 2nd amendment. He has also posted billboards saying Oscarson was arrested decades ago. The story behind the arrest involves Oscarson being arrested for disorderly conduct for getting to rowdy at a hockey game 20 years ago; he paid a fine. Oscarson replied calling Hof a pimp (a common phrase he uses) and accusing him of exploiting the women he works for.
Hof is indeed a controversial figure in the brothel industry. He has been accused of rape and pressured sex at his brother. One girl has outright accused him of aggressive rape, while other employees have said their was an unspoken pressure to have sex with Hof when they worked there. Hof is open about his relationships with the girls who work for his brothels. The Cathouse TV show would often show his new “favorite” – often a new girl that recently joined. The images, which at best come off sleazy, take a whole new context when you think some of these girl’s didn’t want so much attention from their boss.
Also in the backdrop of all this is a debate going on in Nye County over possibly eliminating brothels all together. Right now there are 20 legal brothels in Nevada, operating out of 7 counties.
The push to end brothels in Nye county hit a fever pitch in just the last few weeks when the County Commission voted unanimously to put a non-binding referendum on the November ballot. Nye has four brothels, three of which are owned by Hof. Nye County would lose around $500,000 a year if the brothels close. The churches in Nye are major advocates of ending the brothels. Hof described the efforts of religious leaders to end brothels in Nye County as the Mormon Mafia.
For the most part the GOP establishment would prefer Oscarson win. Hof is a controversial figure and would be harder to control in the legislature. There is some divide however. The Nevada GOP Chairman Michael McDonald actually defend Hof and blasted Oscarson in a published letter. Oscars’s backing the 2015 tax/education budget was the reason, but as was pointed out, the measure was backed by GOP leaders. McDonald is considered a wildcard chair and not part of the GOP establishment in the state. The Nevada Chamber of Commerce has backed Oscarson.
Whoever wins the primary is a lock for the general. We will find out tonight if the HD36 republicans would rather have a moderate, who’s voting record they don’t like, or an infamous brothel owner as their state representative.
Primary Results Update
Dennis Hof wound up winning the GOP primary by a solid 6 point margin. Hof dominated in Nye County, which held a vast majority of the GOP primary votes. Hof was crushed in Lincoln County, coming in 3rd, no doubt thanks to his anti-Mormon statements and his business. Clark held for Oscarson but it just was not enough. Hof now goes on to be the nominee for the GOP. Many state Republicans are keeping their distance though from the controversial leader. He should win, but what Lincoln does (which shouldn’t sway the vote too much) will be interesting.
