Clash of the Titans: The 2018 Race for US Senate in Florida

Today, April 9th, Florida Governor Rick Scott is announcing he will run for US Senate against 18 year incumbent Bill Nelson.  The race is poised to one of the most contentious in recent Florida history.  In honor of the enormity of this race; I decided to take a quick look at the political history of these two mammoth politicians in Florida.

Nelson’s Political Career

Nelson began his political career as a state lawmaker from Brevard county; getting elected in 1974.  Then, in 1978 Nelson ran for Congress and won a seat representing Brevard, Orange, Osceola and Indian River counties.

Nelson’s first bid for statewide office didn’t go well.  The congressman decided to run for Governor in 1990.  However, his opponent in the Democratic Primary was former popular Senator Lawton Chiles.  Nelson tried to campaign on a platform of new ideas and his youth; compared with Chiles’ age.  This tactic backfired in a state with such a large elderly population and Chiles easily won the primary by a 2-1 margin.  Nelson only won rural Washington county and his home base of Brevard.

Acrimony from the campaign did not last.  Nelson enthusiastically backed Chiles in the general election.  Chiles would go on to be elected governor.

Nelson was back in 1994 and announced his candidacy for state treasurer, insurance commissioner, and fire Marshall.  Nelson had a respectable primary win over trial lawyer and consumer advocate Karen Gievers.

Nelson’s general election was against State Representative Tim Ireland.  The campaign was during the 1994 GOP wave midterm.  In the Gubernatorial election, Chiles managed to narrowly hold off a fierce contest by Jeb Bush.  Nelson likewise secured a narrow win.  Nelson’s first statewide general election win reflect a different reality in Florida politics compared to now.  The panhandle of Florida’s conservative democratic majority was solid for Nelson.  Nelson’s base in Brevard helped him win Orange/Osceola; which at the time were much less populated, less diverse, and less Democratic.

Nelson would face a rematch from Ireland in 1998 and secure a larger majority; winning several additional counties.  That same year George Bush won the Gubernatorial election by 11 points.  Overall Florida’s six cabinet positions (at that time) broke down as 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans – and Jeb Bush as the GOP Governor.

Not long after Nelson’s re-election, intrigue rose about the 2000 election cycle.  GOP Senator Connie Mack decided he would not run for re-election.  Nelson was recruited and opted to run for the open senate seat.  He faced minimal Democratic opposition and secured over 75% of the Democratic primary.   His opponent was GOP Congressman Bill McCollum.

The election was one of the most heated in the nation.  Democrats wanted to win the seat as part of their path back to the Senate majority.  In addition, Bill Clinton had a personal interest in the race since McCollum had been one of the House managers for the impeachment trial.  Clinton made Florida a major focus in the 2000 election; not only to help Gore, but also ensure the defeat of McCollum.

While the Presidential tally in Florida would be the subject of debate and drama for months, the Senate race, while close, was a landslide in comparison.  Nelson won by 5%.  North Florida again came in for the Democrat, but by a more modest margin that past races.  Nelson also won urban democratic continues by solid margins and did well with working class whites in counties like Pasco, Hernando, Volusia, Flagler and Polk.

Nelson’s win amid a contentious race further cemented his status as a top Democratic politician in the state.  However, Republicans had every intention of aiming to defeat the Senator in the 2006 midterms.

When Nelson’s first re-election finally came around, the GOP was in no position to make a play for his seat.  The cycle was looking like a Democratic wave as Bush’s 2nd term was mired in scandal and public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war.   Nelson’s only notable challenger was GOP Congresswoman Katherine Harris.  Harris had become infamous for her handling of the 2000 recount while she was Secretary of State and had a penchant for controversial and hyper-conservative views.  The state and national GOP, who had desperately tried to recruit Governor Jeb Bush, did little to help Harris.  It became clear Nelson would easily win re-election and he crushed Harris, winning 57 of Florida’s 67 counties.  That same night the GOP held on to the Florida Governor’s mansion.

Nelson’s 2012 re-election was much more eventful than 2006 but was never considered a major risk.  Republicans had consistent recruiting troubles against Nelson.  Naples Congressman Connie Mack IV (son of the Senator Nelson replaced) finally agreed to run, after initially saying he wouldn’t.  Mack had a good deal of outside help from conservative groups, but was never able to overtake Nelson in the polls.  Things seemed close around September, but in the closing weeks Nelson pulled away and wound up winning by a solid 12%.

Nelson’s win was with heavy margins in Southeast Florida, securing one of the highest margins in Miami-Dade County for a Democrat up to that point.  Nelson was also strong in white working class counties.  However, Nelson’s panhandle margins were weaker than ever before; reflecting the growing red trend in the ancestral Democratic region.

That same night, Barack Obama won Florida by 1%.   Nelson outperformed the President across the state; only doing worse than the President in African-American precincts.  Nelson over-performed Obama the most in Florida’s panhandle.  Nelson also won many rural, working class, and suburban precincts than Obama lost to Romney.

Nelson’s Senate races have consistently shown him stronger with rural and white working class voters than other Democrats of the modern political era.  Nelson still has appeal with ancestral democrats who vote blue for county offices but red at the top of the ballot. However, that cross-over has weakened with time as the older generation of conservative democrats gives way to a new generation of young rural republicans.

In addition, Nelson’s appeal with conservative democrats showed additional weakening in his primary for the seat that August.  Nelson faced a challenge from a no-name individual Glenn Burkett.   Nelson scored an easy victory, but lost or had narrow wins in conservative democratic precincts in the north.

There is nothing in Burkett’s profile that would indicate he personally had appeal there.  Rather the rural numbers are sign of conservative democrats further moving away from the national party.

Nelson’s rural Florida numbers were still better than Crist or Murphy got in recent statewide primaries.  I wrote about the issue of the rural democratic protest vote here, here, here, and here.

For Nelson, the question will be how much his rural cross-over can hold and help him statewide.

Rick Scott’s Political Career

Rick Scott’s political career began in 2010 when he announced he was running for Governor of Florida.  Scott didn’t announce till April and Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum (who Nelson had defeated in 2000) was considered a lock for the GOP nomination.  The independently-wealthy Scott spent 10s of millions of dollars in a nasty primary against McCollum.  Scott capitalized on his outsider moniker in a year where the tea party was at its height.  Scott was hurt but stories of his healthcare company, Columbia/HCA, engaging in the largest medicare fraud in history.  Scott’s company paid a $600 million fine.  Scott pulled into a lead early in the campaign but faded as media scrutiny grew.  It seemed McCollum had momentum in the closing days; however, Scott pulled off a narrow win thanks to strong margins around his base of Naples and support in rural counties.  McCollum won the large urban counties, but not by strong enough margins to pull ahead statewide.  McCollum was strongest in Miami-Dade thanks to Cuban resistance toward Scott.

Rick Scott went into the general election to face Florida’s Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.  Scott continued to spend millions in the general election while Sink raised millions from in and out of the state.  Polling showed a tight race despite Scott’s approvals being underwater and worse than Sink’s.  However, low democratic turnout and the red wave of 2010 allow Scott pull of a narrow victory.

Sink managed to score respectable numbers in the panhandle; even winning Franklin and Liberty counties; but she lost white working class areas that Obama had won (like Flagler and Volusia) and low turnout in Dade and Broward undercut the margins she needed.

Scott’s re-election always seemed shaky.  Governor Scott maintained weak approval ratings in his first term and Democrats were energized to defeat him.  Democrats nominated former GOP Governor Charlie Crist and early polls showed Crist far ahead of Scott.  However, Scott launched a major offensive campaign on the airwaves.  Crist was hit for the state of the economy when he was governor (he served during the great recession).  Despite outspending Crist, Scott still seemed likely to lose, but 2014 proved to be another red wave year and Crist lost to Scott by 1%.

I wrote fairly extensively about the numbers behind Charlie Crist’s loss here.

In summary, the Crist campaign focused on improving margins and turnout in southeast Florida but that focus was at the expensive of turnout focuses in Orlando and outreach in North Florida.  Crists’ former time as a Republican didn’t help him with rural conservatives, and he did worse there than he did with Sink.   He did, however, improve margin in Southeast Florida.  However, in the end it proved to be a wash, and he lost by a similar margin than Sink had.

The Clash

Since 2014 Gubernatorial re-election, Scott has seen an uptick in his approval ratings.  His ambition to be a Senator has been an open secret in Tallahassee for some time.  Meanwhile, Nelson’s disdain for Governor Scott is well documented.  Nelson was rumored to mull retirement this cycle but opted for the fight against the politician he disdained.  The nature of the midterms cannot be understated.  Had Clinton won the Presidency, Nelson would be in a much tougher position in a likely red midterm.  However, Donald Trump’s unpopularity is making 2018 look like a solid blue year; aiding Nelson’s chances.

For Nelson, the big question is how much rural crossover he can secure this go around.  Nelson will likely need to continue suburban gains Democrats are building in the Trump era.  The campaign also needs to work, similar to the Democratic candidate for Governor, to get as many members of the Democratic base to the polls.

For Scott, the question is how well he can do in a blue-leaning midterm versus a red-leaning one.  Scott’s 1% wins both came amid very strong Republican years.  Scott’s approvals are better than they were in 2010 or 2014 though.  The question is, does Scott get swept aside in a year where the race could all come down to be a referendum on Donald Trump.

One thing is certain, this race could very well be the most expensive and nasty Senate race in modern Florida history.