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2016 President, Florida, Municipal, Tallahassee

How High-End Student Complexes Created the Most GOP Precinct In Leon County

Leon County is one of only six Florida counties to vote Democrat for President in every election since 1992.  A combination of three campuses (FSU/FAMU/TCC), a notable African-American population, and a large base of state employees, make it a reliable Democratic county.  That said, there are plenty of Republican strongholds in the region.  Leon’s northern suburbs are typically a reliable Republican base and County District 4, located in the Northeast end of the county, has stayed Republican for decades.  Those who follow Leon politics will often name Golden Eagle, a high-end gated community, or Killearn Lakes, a large gathering of high priced suburban houses, as some of the most reliable Republican areas top and down ballot.  Fort Braden, a rural community on the southwest end of the county, is often seen as a solidly Republican area. Continue Reading

Deerfield Mayor1
Florida, Municipal

Results of 2017 Broward Municipal Elections

A handful of Broward’s 30+ cities held their municipal elections on March 14th.  While more cities are moving their elections to correspond with the federal/state races; plenty, citing a desire to keep low-key races from getting lost in the shuffle, opt for spring elections.  Some elections where contentious while others proved to be blowouts.

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New Commission Compare
Elections, Florida, Municipal, Redistricting

New Jefferson Commission Map Still Hurts African-Americans

Three months ago, I wrote about Jefferson County, FL and its county commission/school board maps.  The commission map had become subject of a lawsuit over whether using the population of a prison towards the commission lines was gerrymandering.

I advise you to read about the past issues with the Jefferson Commission and the use of prison populations in local jurisdictions here.  In addition to the issue surrounding the use of a prison’s population, I argued that the commission districts disenfranchised African-Americans by only having one likely African-American seat out of five available.   I argued that another district had the potential to elect African-Americans, but was adversely affected by turnout fluctuations.

A federal judge ruled on the Jefferson map and found for the plaintiffs that sued the county, finding that the use of the prison was an unconstitutional gerrymander.  The decision was narrow and specific to Jefferson, and, potentially, counties with similar issues.  The court found that since the prison was such a large part of the county’s population of the district (over 30% if the population), the population deviation was far too large.  In addition, the court ruled that since the prison was a state-run prison and the county and school board had no say over the conditions/policies of the prison, there was a disconnect between the prisoners inside and the local elected officials.  Excerpts of this argument can be seen here.  You can click the images to enlarge.

IMG_4713IMG_4712

 

 

 

 

 

 

In essence, the court gave credence to the notion of prison populations being counted as part of congressional or legislative lines because state/federal lawmakers can exercise some authority and influence with prisons.  In addition, prisoners can write their lawmakers about issues or concerns they have.  The court found that prisoners can be considered constituents of high-level lawmakers, but not constituents of the Jefferson School Board or County Commission because those local boards have no say or influence with the prison that operates in their borders.

The court, however, did not address the racial disparity issues as much, and when a new map was submitted by the county, the court found the racial concerns raised to not be compelling enough to warrant another redraw and that the minority population of District Three was large enough, 40%, to give African-Americans a chance to win the seat.  I argue the new map is far too similar to the old when it comes to racial makeup and that the parties involved looked too closely at population versus voting performance.

The New Lines

With the order to redraw the district lines while not accounting for the population of the prison, the main issue was that District Three was dramatically underpopulated.   The commission’s consultants clearly took pains to draw new lines while at the same time maintaining the same general spirit of the old districts.

New Commission Compare

The chart below shows the raw population data and registration data for the old (current) and newly proposed districts.  Overall, the racial makeup of the districts remains largely the same.

Jeff District Pop

The third district had a solid African-American minority population, but it is virtually unchanged from the old lines.  District Three becomes less African-American in terms of overall population, but that is because the prison was removed.  The overall registration data for District Three did not change much.  However, District Two saw its African-American share of registration fall thanks to ceding some African-Americans and taking in more whites.  The shift in District Two is troubling, since taking in more whites was not needed to keep its population in the proper range, but overall District Two will remain an African-American seat.  The problem is District Three showing no electoral improvement for African-Americans from the old lines.

When looking at the electoral results, we see little change in the dynamics again.  District Two remains an African-American seat in performance while District Three is favorable to African-Americans in the August primaries, but less so in the general elections.   In a non-partisan August primary, the third district was 50% African-American in 2014, but it fell to 38% in November as more whites turned out.   While the Democratic primaries are more solidly African-American, I wrote in my initial article that local white Democrats can and have opted to run as NPA candidates to avoid the primary and run in the general elections, which are more white.  In addition, the African-American share of the August primary in District Three only topped 50% in 2014, and could easily fall this year if turnout fluctuates again.

New Commission Election Chart

My initial analysis delved more into registration shifts and racial dynamics in Jefferson, so I again urge you to refresh yourself on that here.  The old lines had clear issues with providing a second district with a good chance of electing an African-American, and the new lines have a near identical result.  The difference in District Three between the old and new lines is less than 1%.

There is a clear way to change these lines to better meet a goal of giving African-Americans a second shot at a county commission seat.  The commission could have shifted the lines many different ways.  The problems with the new lines for District Three is that they took in whiter regions and negated to take in African-American census blocks further south.

This map shows the old districts color-coded, with the new lines overlaid.  You can see District Three took in some portions of all the districts, notably 5, 4, and 1.

New Commission

Now, look at that map compared to the racial makeup of the census blocks of Jefferson County (with the new lines overlaid).

New Commission Race

The regions taken in from District 4 and 1 were heavily white, while heavily African-American regions deeper in District 5 were over-looked. A few African-American blocks were added in from Districts 5 and 1, resulting in a district with a near identical racial makeup as the old one, just with more actual eligible voters.

The new district lines remove the serious issue of prison gerrymandering in Jefferson.  However, further improvements are needed to the commission lines to better reflect the racial makeup of Jefferson.

Commission Compare Small
Florida, Municipal, Redistricting

Jefferson County Commission and School Board Districts Disenfranchise African-Americans

Jefferson County, Florida, a small Democratic-leaning county just to the east of Tallahassee, is currently being sued by the ACLU over its 5 single-member commission districts, which are used for both County Commission and School Board elections.  The suing parties say that the districts use prison gerrymandering to inflate the minority population of one district specifically, District 3.  The issue stems from Jefferson County Correctional Institution, a jail with over 1,100 inmates.   Prison populations are counted by the census for the location they are incarcerated in, not where they initially lived.   Continue Reading

Mayor Council 3 Part 2
Elections, Florida, Municipal

The Facts about the Jacksonville Runoff

The night of the March primary in Jacksonville, I wrote that Alvin Brown had a narrow path to victory.  The mayor needed to win over supporters of Bill Bishop, the moderate Republican who came in third place, and he needed to dramatically increase Democratic turnout.  When all was said and done on runoff night Alvin Brown narrowly lost re-election with 48.7% of the vote.  So what happened?

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DuvalFirst
Elections, Florida, Municipal

Quick Thoughts on Jacksonville’s Upcoming Runoff

Jacksonville had its first round of voting Tuesday.  Democrat Alvin Brown, first elected in an upset win in 2011, is seeking re-election in a hard-fought contest.  Brown’s main challenger is Republican Lenny Curry, the former Chairman of the Republican Party of Florida.  The race has been heated so far.  Brown is facing stiff headwind due to the county’s Republican Lean.  However, the Mayor’s approval rating remains above 50% in recent polls.  With four candidates in the race, it was widely believed that Brown and Curry would advance to a runoff election. Continue Reading

PlantationMayor
Elections, Florida, Municipal

Maps and Quick Thoughts on Broward’s Municipal Election Results

As a Broward County resident for the first 19 years of my life, Broward County and its politics are still very close to me.  The county, second largest in the state, has 35 cities and towns.  Many of these cities host elections in the fall of even-numbered years to coincide with major races.   However, many cities continue to hold elections in the spring of odd and even numbered years.  March 10th saw the latest round of municipal elections for the county; with eight different cities going to the polls.  The following article will contain a map of each race’s result and a quick summary of the results and events surrounding the election.  While some races were fairly quiet, others were major battles for the future of the cities. Continue Reading

2014 County Commission Control2
Elections, Florida, Municipal

How Florida Democrats fared in 2014′s Local Elections

In 2013, I wrote an article on Democratic Party Strength at the local level.  The article examined areas where Democrats were strong and weak on down-ballot races for county commission and constitutional officers.  It has long been my view that local elections are critical to the future of any political party.  Local elections allow parties to build benches for higher office.  In addition, local elections can be used to help measure party strength in different jurisdictions.   Continue Reading

2013 County Commission Control
Elections, Florida, Municipal

The Local Elections Florida Democrats Should be Watching

Democrats across Florida are eager to see the results of the Governors Race between Charlie Crist and Rick Scott.  In addition to the Crist v Scott match up, Democrats are invested in the Attorney General Election between George Sheldon and Pam Bondi, two major congressional races, and a handful of state house and senate elections.  Democrats are hoping to win the Governor and Attorney General elections, knock off Steve Southerland in CD2, and keep Republicans from getting a veto-proof majority in the state house and senate.  All of these races are important.  However, there are also a great deal of local races that Democrats should have an interest in.  Below are a listing of county commission and constitutional officer elections that I believe Democrats should keep an eye on Tuesday night. Continue Reading