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Elections, Municipal

How Rick Kriseman Avoided Defeat in St Pete

St Petersburg’s 2017 Mayoral Election is one of the most unique municipal races in Florida.  A democratic city (giving Hillary Clinton 59% of the vote) with a popular Democratic Mayor who raised $700,000 for his re-election — August should have been a formality.  Yet for months that Democratic Mayor, Rick Kriseman, was expected to lose the August 29th first round of voting.  Kriseman was a former Democratic State Representative that beat an incumbent, Republican Bill Foster, in 2013, to capture the job as mayor.  The first four years had some stumbles but overall Kriseman was popular with voters and seen as a shoo-in for re-election.  That is, he would have been as long as former Mayor Rick Baker did not decide to run; which he did earlier in the year.

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Florida, Municipal, Uncategorized

The politics of Slot Machines in Florida

On Thursday, May 18th 2017, Florida’s Supreme Court issued a unanimous decision striking down slot machines in Gadsden County.  Gadsden had approved slot machines for the racing track in the city of Gretna, approving the proposal in a 2012 local referendum.   The argument from the court was simple, Florida’s constitution only allowed slot machines in the counties of Broward and Miami-Dade.  The ruling effectively voided slot referendums in seven other FL counties as well.  The whole debate goes back to a 2004 ballot measure in Florida.

History of Slots in Florida

Florida has gambling, anyone who has visits the state can tell you that.  Race tracks dot the state and card games and slots are plentiful at casinos owned by the Seminole Tribe of Florida.  The state had been part of a compact with the tribe to allow card games (and restrict their use outside of tribe-owned casinos) in exchange for millions of dollars from the Seminoles.   The current state of this agreement is up in the air and debate rages over a new proposal.

Way back in 2004, a measure was put on the November ballot asking voters if Broward and Miami-Dade counties should be allowed to have slot machines at existing parimutuel (betting) facilities if citizens voted to approve their addition.  The measure was funded by ‘Floridians for a Level Playing Field’ – which spent $15 million to get the signatures and fund the campaign.  Opposition groups spent less than $1 million.  The measure narrowly passed, fueled by the South Florida counties and being rejected in the North.

2004 Slots Statewid

Once the measure passed, Broward voted in March of 2015 to allow slots by a 57-43% margin.

Miami-Dade rejected allowing slots in a 2005 referendum by a 48-52% margin.   However, in January 2008 they approved slots by a 63-37% margin.

Pushing for Expansion

2012 saw a slew of local ordinances in assorted counties to authorize slots at existing parimutuel facilities.  The prospect of extra income, just a few years after the financial crisis, was appealing to counties of all sizes.

Gadsden, the source of the lawsuit, approved slots for the race track in Gretna by a 62-38% margin during the 2012 Presidential Preference Primary.  Gadsden, the only majority African-American county in the state, consistently votes Democratic and the slot referendum saw 5x as many ballots cast than where cast for the GOP Presidential Primary.  The measure saw broad support, with its weakest showing in Quincy and losing one rural county south of Havana.

Gadsden Slots

The same day as Gadsden was voting, Washington, a deeply conservative county, also approved slots.  The local measure approved slots at the parimutuel facility for Ebro, on the southern end of the county.  The measure has strong support except in the area of Chipley in the north end of the county.

Washington Slot

In April of 2012, Hamilton passed a measure approving slots for a racing track that was being built in Jennings, right by the Georgia border.  The measure saw strong support, losing two rural precincts but winning in the largest population centers of the rural, conservative county.

Hamilton Slot

In November of 2012, Lee county approved slots for its racing track in Bonita Springs.  Lee county is a solid Republican, suburban county.  While one precinct right in the city was narrower in support, the surrounding area showed strong support.  The measure only failed in the communities along the islands of western Lee.

Lee Slot

November 2012 also saw Democratic Palm Beach county approve a slots for parimutuel facilities in their borders.  The measure had modest support across the county, losing some rural areas in the west and suburban and coastal pockets in the east.  However, few areas saw huge margins of support or opposition.

Palm Slots

The final slot measure of 2012 was in Brevard, a solid Republican county, where voters approved slots for the racing track in Melbourne.  The measure saw modest support across the county with scattered rejection.  Cape Canaveral was notably supportive.

Brevard Slots

After SIX counties approved slots in 2012, nothing happened in 2014.  Then, in November of 2016, two more counties approved slots.

St Lucie, a working-class Democratic county that voted for Trump but Murphy for Senate, passed slots handily.

St Lucie Slot

And last, Duval County, the city of Jacksonville, passed slots by a 8 point margin.  The measure was heavily supported in the African-American community and more GOP-favorable areas.  It lost in parts of the beaches, the rural/religious Westside, and the artsy-Hispter Riverside.

Duval Slot

Conclusion

With the Supreme Court decision, slots in these counties are on hold.  Florida continues to debate over a gambling compact, which would likely require voter approval.  In addition, anti-casino forces want to ensure no expansion of gambling in the state.  The issue is far from over.  However, it is clear the growing drumbeat from counties of different demographics and partisan makeup is pro-slots and hence pro-revenue.

2016 President, Florida, Municipal, Tallahassee

How High-End Student Complexes Created the Most GOP Precinct In Leon County

Leon County is one of only six Florida counties to vote Democrat for President in every election since 1992.  A combination of three campuses (FSU/FAMU/TCC), a notable African-American population, and a large base of state employees, make it a reliable Democratic county.  That said, there are plenty of Republican strongholds in the region.  Leon’s northern suburbs are typically a reliable Republican base and County District 4, located in the Northeast end of the county, has stayed Republican for decades.  Those who follow Leon politics will often name Golden Eagle, a high-end gated community, or Killearn Lakes, a large gathering of high priced suburban houses, as some of the most reliable Republican areas top and down ballot.  Fort Braden, a rural community on the southwest end of the county, is often seen as a solidly Republican area. Continue Reading

Florida, Municipal

Results of 2017 Broward Municipal Elections

A handful of Broward’s 30+ cities held their municipal elections on March 14th.  While more cities are moving their elections to correspond with the federal/state races; plenty, citing a desire to keep low-key races from getting lost in the shuffle, opt for spring elections.  Some elections where contentious while others proved to be blowouts.

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Florida, Municipal, Redistricting

Jefferson County Commission and School Board Districts Disenfranchise African-Americans

Jefferson County, Florida, a small Democratic-leaning county just to the east of Tallahassee, is currently being sued by the ACLU over its 5 single-member commission districts, which are used for both County Commission and School Board elections.  The suing parties say that the districts use prison gerrymandering to inflate the minority population of one district specifically, District 3.  The issue stems from Jefferson County Correctional Institution, a jail with over 1,100 inmates.   Prison populations are counted by the census for the location they are incarcerated in, not where they initially lived.   Continue Reading

Elections, Florida, Municipal

The Facts about the Jacksonville Runoff

The night of the March primary in Jacksonville, I wrote that Alvin Brown had a narrow path to victory.  The mayor needed to win over supporters of Bill Bishop, the moderate Republican who came in third place, and he needed to dramatically increase Democratic turnout.  When all was said and done on runoff night Alvin Brown narrowly lost re-election with 48.7% of the vote.  So what happened?

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Elections, Florida, Municipal

Quick Thoughts on Jacksonville’s Upcoming Runoff

Jacksonville had its first round of voting Tuesday.  Democrat Alvin Brown, first elected in an upset win in 2011, is seeking re-election in a hard-fought contest.  Brown’s main challenger is Republican Lenny Curry, the former Chairman of the Republican Party of Florida.  The race has been heated so far.  Brown is facing stiff headwind due to the county’s Republican Lean.  However, the Mayor’s approval rating remains above 50% in recent polls.  With four candidates in the race, it was widely believed that Brown and Curry would advance to a runoff election. Continue Reading

Elections, Florida, Municipal

Maps and Quick Thoughts on Broward’s Municipal Election Results

As a Broward County resident for the first 19 years of my life, Broward County and its politics are still very close to me.  The county, second largest in the state, has 35 cities and towns.  Many of these cities host elections in the fall of even-numbered years to coincide with major races.   However, many cities continue to hold elections in the spring of odd and even numbered years.  March 10th saw the latest round of municipal elections for the county; with eight different cities going to the polls.  The following article will contain a map of each race’s result and a quick summary of the results and events surrounding the election.  While some races were fairly quiet, others were major battles for the future of the cities. Continue Reading

Elections, Florida, Municipal

How Florida Democrats fared in 2014′s Local Elections

In 2013, I wrote an article on Democratic Party Strength at the local level.  The article examined areas where Democrats were strong and weak on down-ballot races for county commission and constitutional officers.  It has long been my view that local elections are critical to the future of any political party.  Local elections allow parties to build benches for higher office.  In addition, local elections can be used to help measure party strength in different jurisdictions.   Continue Reading