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Elections

10th Primary Street
Congressional, Elections

The New York 10th Democratic Primary – Borough Park vs Manhattan

New York Democratic Congressman Jared Nadler angered some in his district when he backed President Obama’s Iran Deal, which lifted sanctions on the Islamic Nation in exchange for it ending its nuclear program.  By all accounts, the deal has worked, with Iran ending its program, ties between Iran and the West improving, and moderates making substantial gains in the Iranian Parliament.  Nadler’s 10th district has the largest Jewish population in the nation.   Continue Reading

CD2 Primary
Elections, Redistricting

Virginia’s 2nd District Primary — When Carpetbagging backfires

Virginia Congressman Randy Forbes shouldn’t have had any troubles getting re-elected in 2016.  The Congressman has been a member of the House of Representatives since 2001 and has faced little electoral trouble in his 15 year congressional career.  Forbes initially sat in the 4th congressional district, which following the 2012 round of redistricting, was a swing seat that voted for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012.   Continue Reading

South Clinton Shift
2016 President, Elections

Breaking Apart the Myth that Clinton Won the Southern Primaries because they were ‘conservative’

This article is part of a series I will be conducting on the 2016 Democratic Primary.

The Real Reason the Southern States Backed Clinton

Hillary Clinton was always considered the front-runner for the Democratic nomination.   Sanders proved a much stronger opponent than anticipated in 2015, and by early 2016 his campaign was looking for an actual pathway to the nomination.   However, any pathway to a majority of delegates in all likelihood closed after the southern primaries delivered major wins to Hillary Clinton in March.   Continue Reading

2012 Dem Primary Pres KY
Elections

Kentucky Primary Preview: West Virginia Part II

Tuesday is the day of the Democratic Presidential Primary in Kentucky.  Bernie Sanders is still trying to amass delegates in an increasingly long-shot effort to get the Democratic nomination.  Clinton, hoping to put Sander’s away for good, has opted to actually spend money in the contest after ignoring Indiana and West Virginia.  Kentucky’s closed primary is being sited as an opportunity for Clinton, as she often performs better in closed contests.  However, this author is unconvinced, and sees Kentucky likely to be West Virginia Part II. Continue Reading

2016 Other Vote
Elections

The West Virginia Democratic Primary Protest Vote and Bernie Sanders

The day of the West Virginia primary, I posted this article predicting an especially large number of ballots to be cast for candidates other than Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton.  Overall I expected Sanders to win by double digits due to demographics, but that the main story would be how many voters rejected both candidates.   When the results came in, we did indeed see the largest share of the vote for non-Clinton or Sanders so far, 12.7%. Continue Reading

2012 Dem Pres Primary
Elections

West Virginia Democratic Primary Poised to have high protest vote

West Virginia and the Democratic Presidential Primary

Today is the West Virginia Presidential Primary.  With Trump having secured the Republican nomination and already leading polls in the state by wide margins, most attention is focused on the Democratic side.   While Clinton still stands poised to win the Democratic nomination, Sander’s is favored in West Virginia.   Continue Reading

2008 PPP Precinct
Elections, Florida

Florida Primary Preview

Florida’s presidential primary is right around the corner.  This article will look at both primaries as Trump tries to knock Rubio out in his home state and Clinton aims to rack up a big win to secure her delegate lead. Continue Reading